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A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
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A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters

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A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters

A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters

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  • 1.
    • A Method for Prioritization of Vulnerability Assessment of Technical Transportation Structures in Natural Disasters
    • By: Mohammadreza Yadollahi
    • BSc: 1995-1999: Civil Engineering
    • MSc: 1999-2001: Structural Engineering
    • PhD Holder, 2009-now: Construction (Risk) Management
    • Previous Position: 2003-2009: Associate Researcher of Transportation Research Institute, Tehran, Iran
    • Email: m.r.yadollahi@gmail.com
  • 2.
    • Disaster Risk Management: A comparatively new area of social concern and practice
    • Lifelines: Especially those related to transportation, has undeniable roll in the economic, social and cultural development
    • Road Transportation Network: One the main four branches of transportation (air, marine, rail and road transportation) which is strongly affected by natural disasters
    • These disasters leave considerable damages to the road networks.
    • Major part of these damages will be borne by the governments.
    • Transportation Infrastructure: Bridges, Tunnels, Buildings and Retaining Walls
    • Seismic Rehabilitation: An important activity for mitigation and reconstruction of disaster management cycle
    • Construction Risk Management Model: There isn’t enough budget for the process of all infrastructures.
  • 3. 2-1- Disaster Risk Management
    • There has been an increase in the incidence of Natural Disasters worldwide with increasing loss of life and damage to property.
    • The risk of disasters can also be expected to rise in the future, particularly for developing countries populations.
    • There are two reasons for this trend:
    • An increase in extreme natural events, primarily due to climatic change ;
    • Increased vulnerability of populations to these natural events.
    •  
  • 4. 2-2- Lifelines
    • The lifelines have dominant role in the national and regional Economic Circulation .
    • All lifelines have in common the fact that they are composed by a large number of spatially distributed ( links ) and concentrated ( nodes ) interconnected components.
    • The role of Lifelines especially those related to transportation in the economic, social and cultural development is undeniable.
    • Damage to any of these components has a serious effect on the performance of the lifeline as a system.
  • 5. 2-3- Road Transportation Network
    • Road Transportation Network as one the main four branches of transportation (air, marine, rail and road transportation) is affected by natural disasters like floods, earthquakes , rock falling, landslides, avalanches, and so on, and these disasters leave considerable damages to the road networks.
  • 6. 2-4- Critical Transportation Infrastructures
    • Structures like tunnels, buildings, retaining walls, and all those buildings located on the roads are most vulnerable components in road networks.
    • These structures are main connectors of the lifelines and dispersion or improper performance of them especially in emergency times makes the relief, recovery and reconstruction very difficult.
  • 7. 2-5- Seismic Rehabilitation Planning
    • Old age of many of the road and railroad infrastructures
    • No database containing adequate knowledge and information
    • Vast area of railroad and road networks
    • High number of infrastructures such as bridges
    • High amounts of rehabilitation costs
    • The stages for infrastructures vulnerability assessment are as follows:
    • Vulnerability Analysis
    • Presentation of Rehabilitation Project
    • Implementation of Rehabilitation Project
  • 8. 2-6- Construction Risk Management Model (Financial Decision Making)
    • A preliminary estimation of the project implementation
    • A time consuming process
    • Needs a sufficient fund for being completed
    • A multi-criteria evaluation model based on a computer decision making program to assess the strategic importance of infrastructures (bridges, tunnels, buildings and …) on a road network is needed .
  • 9. One of the lessons drawn from past topics mentioned in the previous pages is that: There is no sufficient tool or model for decision making in road infrastructures rehabilitation projects to compare and prioritize different structures in road transportation system.
  • 10. In August of 2007, Interstate 35 in Minnesota collapsed during rush hour killing 13 and injuring 145people. Passenger vehicles carrying families, commercial trucks carrying goods, and even a school bus, were all on the bridge when it collapsed into the Mississippi River. Although the number of casualties for a bridge collapse of this magnitude could have been much worse, the costs associated with the bridge collapse were still enormous. The Minnesota Department of Transportation (MNDOT) had to compensate the victims for their injuries or loss of life, pay for the debris to be cleared, set up detours, and replace the bridge. The Minnesota bridge collapse caused the government to pay almost $400 million in replacement costs, $38 million for victims’ compensation, and an estimated $400,000 per day for the local economy due to rerouting, travel delays, and lost mobility. The bridge collapse and all of the associated costs could have been avoided with a better maintenance prioritization and allocation of funds.
  • 11. Why Computer Based Construction Risk Management Model?
    • The two categories of
    • Computer-Aided Decision Support Systems:
  • 12. DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
    • Decision support system (DSS) – a highly flexible and interactive system that is designed to support decision making when the problem is not structured. This system help you analyze, but you must know how to solve the problem, and how to use the results of the analysis
    • Artificial intelligence (AI) – the science of making machines imitate human thinking and behavior
  • 13. Types of Decisions You Face (by structure & frequency)
    • Structured decision – processing a certain information in a specified way so that you will always get the right answer; e.g.: calculating gross pay for hourly worker
    • Non-Structured decision – is one for which there may be several “ right ” answers and there is no precise way to get a right answer. No rules or criteria exist that guarantee you a good solution; e.g.: choosing the job or stock market investment analysis
    • Recurring Decision: is one that happens repeatedly, and often periodically. You will use the same set of rules each time
    • Non-Recurring Decision: is one that you make infrequently, perhaps only once. You may have different criteria for determine the best solution each time; e.g: a company merger
  • 14. GENETIC ALGORITHMS
    • An Artificial Intelligence system that mimics the evolutionary, survival-of-the-fittest process to generate increasingly better solutions to a problem.
    • Genetic algorithm (GA) are search algorithms based on mechanics of natural selection and natural genetics.
    yes no Initialize the population Select individuals for the mating pool Perform crossover Insert offspring into the population The End Perform mutation Stop?
  • 15. Genetic Algorithm Other Algorithms Speed Human work Applicability Performance Slow * Generally fast Minimal Long and exhaustive General There are problems that cannot be solved analytically Excellent Depends * Not necessary!
  • 16. 1- The hazard is earthquake 2- Road infrastructures include: bridges , buildings , tunnels and walls 3- Seismic vulnerability qualitative assessment is based on RVS (Rapid Visual Screening) method 4- Weight evaluation of indexes is based on experts experiences and judgment and also historical data from past earthquakes in Iran 5- Decision making tool is MCDM model 6- Artificial intelligence ( Genetic Algorithm or other methods) is used for planning and prioritizing
  • 17.
    • The main goal of this research is to develop a model for mitigation, prevention and reconstruction (Risk Management) of the seismic risk (hazard of earthquake) of road infrastructure when there isn't enough budget to allocate for rehabilitation projects.
    • Some of the most important objectives of this research are as follows:
    • To identify the seismic vulnerability index of tunnels and retaining walls based on a qualitative RVS (Rapid Visual Screening) method
    • To identify the Important Rehabilitation Criteria (IRC) of road infrastructures
    • To assign weights for infrastructure IRC in order to identify the specific criteria value of one structure
    • To establish the BCR (benefit-cost ratio) index as a criteria for rehabilitation decision making
    • To develop a MCDM model (Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model) based on AI tool (e.g.: Genetic Algorithm)
  • 18. 6- Methodology (Study Approach)
    • Phase 1
    • Phase 3
    Phase 2
  • 19. Phase 1 Part 1: Qualitative Seismic Vulnerability Assessment Rapid Visual Screening methods for All Infrastructures
    • The RVS procedure was developed for a broad audience ,
    • including building officials and inspectors and
    • public- and private-sector structure owners.
    • The procedure was designed to be the preliminary screening phase of a multi-phase procedure for identifying potentially hazardous structures.
    • Buildings identified as potentially hazardous by the RVS procedure should be analyzed in more detail by an experienced seismic design professional .
  • 20. 1-1: Bridges
    • Seismic Retrofit Codes & Manuals:
    • FHWA, Seismic Retrofit Manual for Highway Bridges, Report No. FHWA RD-94-052, 1995.
    • MCEER, Seismic Retrofitting Manual for Highway Structures, Report No. MCEER.06-SP10, by: Buckle I.G. et.al., 2006.
    • FHWA 2008 , Seismic Retrofit Manual for Highway Bridge s
  • 21. 1-2: Buildings
    • Operational Steps for Building Seismic Assessment
    • (Rapid Visual Screening-RVS)
    • FEMA 154 - Rapid Visual Screening of Buildings for Potential Seismic Hazards
  • 22.
    • Three different patterns of cracking or failure in a tunnel, which can be also found combined, due to: (Dowding & Rozen -1978)
    • • Ground failure, such as liquefaction or landslides at tunnel portals;
    • • Fault displacement;
    • • Ground shaking or ground vibrations;
    • Three damage levels can be defined by using the crack width (W) and length (L), the tunnel functionality and the need of restoration after earthquakes:
    • • Class A: Slight damage . L<5m W<3mm. Perfect functionality. No restoration needed. No service stop;
    • • Class B: Moderate damage. L>5m W>3mm. Differential displacements cause deep cracks, spalling and exposed reinforcement. Compromised functionality. Service interruption until the complete restoration with a seismic expedients;
    • • Class C: Severe damage. Landslide and liquefaction. Structural collapse of the lining. Service stop without any possible restoration;
    1-3: Tunnels 1. G. Lanzano+, E. Bilotta, G. Russo , Tunnels under seismic loading: a review of damage case histories and protection methods, Department of Hydraulic, Geotechnical and Environmental Engineering (DIGA). University of Naples Federico II, Italy and+ SAVA Department, University of Molise, Campobasso, Italy . Damage classification Criteria for Tunnels [1]
  • 23.
    • A generic structure that is employed to restrain a vertical-faced or near-vertical-faced mass of earth.
    • There are several types of retaining walls:
    • A gravity wall
    • A cantilever retaining wall
    • Reinforced counterforts
    • Bulkhead retaining walls
    • Seismic Retrofitting Manual for
    • Highway Bridges
    • Part II: Retaining Structures , Slopes, Tunnels, Culverts, and Roadways (December 2006)
    • This part focuses on seismic vulnerability screening, evaluation and retrofitting of the following highway system components: retaining structures, slopes, tunnels, culverts, and roadways. It is the first known effort to capture, in a formal and consistent manner, the important aspects of seismic performance and retrofitting intended to improve performance of highway system structural components other than bridges.
    1-4: Retaining Walls
  • 24. Part 2: Importance Criteria Assessment
    • criteria definition
    • criteria assessment
    • importance index
    • Some of these criteria may be are as follows:
    •   Public Safety
    • Historical Considerations
    • Architectural Considerations
    • National Security
    • Long Term Economical Impacts
    • Interference with Other Lifelines
    • Emergency Responses
    • Other Factors
    Caltrans Seismic Design Criteria for Bridges (SDC- ( 2001
  • 25. Vulnerability Importance Criteria Assessment based on Infrastructure Performance
  • 26. Part 3: Financial Consideration Assessment
    • The main goal of this part is to finding a way for quantify in terms of money the cost of the risks involved in construction rehabilitation projects.
    • So the costs of seismic rehabilitation of structures are evaluated as new indexes.
    Cost-Benefit Analysis of Seismic Rehabilitation Projects
  • 27. General concept of Cost-Benefit Analysis for Infrastructure Rehabilitation Projects
    • 1. “whole of Life Cycle Cost analysis in Bridge Rehabilitation”, Report 2002-005-c-03,CRC Construction Innovation
    The Final function of rehabilitation projects is: [1]
  • 28. Phase 2 Risk Index Evaluation (RIV)
    • Indexes evaluated and weighted
    • Judgment of experts + Records from several past earthquakes
    • Delphi Technique based on the questionnaires forms is one of the methods that can be used in this part.
  • 29. Phase 3 General Concept of Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model
    • MCDM is used in the situation in which there exists a prioritization of criteria .
    • It means how this prioritization of criteria can be modelled by using importance weights in which the weights associated with the lower priority criteria are related to the satisfaction of the higher priority criteria.
    • We provide some models that allow for the formalization of these prioritized MCDM problems.
    • Importance information plays a fundamental role in the comparison between alternatives by overseeing tradeoffs between the respective satisfactions to different criteria.
    • Bellman–Zadeh paradigm and the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator method are two samples of MCDM modelling tools .
    • The fundamental components of a multi-criteria decision problem are a set of criteria, c={c 1 ,c 2 ,…,c n } of interest to the decision maker and a collection X of possible alternatives.
  • 30. The tools and methods developed in this research will hopefully help lead to a safer, more effective infrastructure rehabilitation system: 1- Qualitative Seismic Vulnerability Assessment procedure ( Rapid Visual Screening Checklists) for tunnels and retaining walls 2- Importance criteria assessment methods for critical road transportation infrastructures include bridges, tunnels, buildings, retaining walls 3- Financial Planning for rehabilitations of infrastructures 4- To develop a Multi Criteria Decision Making model for seismic rehabilitation of road infrastructures based on Artificial Intelligence approach (Genetic Algorithm for decision making purposes) 5- Prioritization of rehabilitation projects
  • 31. Conclusion: Evolution
  • 32. Thank You for Your Attention

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