Population growth, coupled with urbanisation and globalisation greatly increased risks and impacts of disasters Recent events: Great Eastern Japan Earthquake, BP Oilspill, the floods in Pakistan and wildfires in Russia highlight this Climate Change aggravates this situation in intensity and complexity => More complex, vulnerable and interdependent world higher population density in hazard prone areas (coastlines, rivers) increasing values of buildings and infrastructure Rising demands of mobility, logistics and communication (Volcano outbreak, space weather) Globalisation and complex financial markets According to the World Bank 3.5 billion people and about 80% of the worlds GDP are located in areas exposed to at least one significant natural hazard with possibility of occurrence How far can protection go? Life, welfare and buildings RISK Reduction is of vital importance – Sustainable Development and DRR have to go hand in hand.
Safety Security and Sustainability have to be seen as a whole, (Centre of Risk Concepts) Risk – uncertain consequences of an event or activity with respect to smthg. people value – like human life, safety security – Chances always come with risks, hence there needs to be a way on how to deal with them to have the maximum safety and security level achievable. Risk Culture- reflects in the way how a society handles safety and security – e.g. what are the limits of investments, safety level or risk level Risk Governance looks at how risk related decision making unfolds when a multitude of stakeholders or responsible actors are involved – requiring coordination and reconciliation between a profusion of roles, perspectives, goals and activities. Good risk governance stands for transparency in decision making effectiveness and efficiency of the measures, accountability, strategic focus, sustainability, equity and fairness – the solutions need to be politically and legaly feasible and ethically and publicly acceptable. Risk Governance is faced with the fact that risks not excludable and isolated events with a limited extent, but are often trans boundary risks affecting countries with different political systems and standards. Risks are distributed over time, space and populations affected Especially the timeline is an important factors with respect to sustainability, as delayed effects may hinder it.
Integrative risk reduction and disaster management implies vulnerability reduction and resilience increase. A multi-measures approach along the risk cycle including prevention, intervention and recovery is required.
IRM aims at reducing and mitigating risks along the whole risk cycle of prevention intervention and recovery. IRM starts with the Identification and Analysis of Risk Followed by risk assessment and planning of measures. Fundamental questions include: How safe is safe enough? What can happen? What is acceptable to happen? What needs to be done?
The main function of the planning of integrated measures is to achieve the intended level of safety within the agreed limits in the most cost effective way. The protection with organizational technical and biological measures has to be planned, checked for effectiveness, and undertaken in concert, while keeping in mind that prevention, intervention and reconstruction are all equally valid risk- management measures. Acceptability, feasibility and reliability of solutions are also important factors. – hence, all solutions should be sustainable (economically, socially and ecologically) Risk Audit has to take place to evaluate the measures, reveal gaps and support priority settings. IRM can be summarized in with 5S s: Stakeholders, strategy, standards, sustainability and survey
Multi risks in a globalised world: Integrative risk management concept
Multi risks in a globalised world: Risk concept and integrative risk management www.grforum.org CONTACT INFORMATION Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600 Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610 [email_address] www.grforum.org Annual Meeting of the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) Europe Marc Stal Project Officer [email_address]
THE 3 PILLARS OF GRF DAVOS “ From Thoughts to Action –linking practice, science, policy and decision making in the search for sustainable solutions” RISKPLA.NET web based networking platform Open and closed circles RISK ACADEMY Think Tank, Knowledge Management Training Courses R&D Public Awareness E-journal (Good practice) IDRC Biennial IDRC Davos Conferences 26 – 30 Aug. 2012 IDRC Regional Conferences and Workshops
<ul><li>“ The superior man, when resting in safety, does not forget that danger may come. When in a state of security he does not forget the possibility of ruin. When all is orderly, he does not forget that disorder may come. Thus his person is not endangered, and his States and all their clans are preserved. ” </li></ul>(Confucius 551 – 479 BC)
RISK CONCEPTS SAFETY SECURITY SUSTAINABILITY RISK Uncertain consequences of an event or activity with respect to smthg. people value. RISK CULTURE The way a society handles safety and security. RISK GOVERNANCE Decision-making processes including a multitude of stakeholders Risks are distributed over time, space and populations affected
FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES/ TSUNAMIS DROUGHTS, DESERTIFICATION LANDSLIDES CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURES BIOLOGICAL HAZARDS TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TERRORISM MULTI HAZARD/ MULTI RISK APPROACH NEEDED LAND DEGRADATION PANDEMICS FINANCIAL CRISES POVERTY
GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDGS) Degradation of Ecosystem Services Land Degradation Growing Vulnerabilities Large costs for wealth and development Undermining the possibilities to attain the MDGs Global Environmental Change
MULTI SECTORS AND DISCIPLINES APPROACH Natural Disaster Reduction TECHNICAL SOCIAL POLITICAL ECONOMIC LEGAL ADMINISTRATIVE Scientific to be considered in its widest sense to include the natural, environmental, social, economic, health & engineering sciences Technical to include relevant matters of technology, engineering practice & implementation
RISK REDUCTION AND DISASTER MANAGEMENT Integrative risk reduction and disaster management means a comprehensive approach in measures to be taken, including prevention/ preparedness, intervention/ response and recovery
MULTI MEASURES APPROACH RISK CASCADE IN INTEGRAL RISK MANAGEMENT Total original risk level Residual Risk Avoiding, eliminating risk situations (land-use planning) Risk reduction by preventive measures Early warning, Emergency Management Risk Transfer (Micro-) Insurance Self-Responsibility
ASPECTS OF IRM <ul><li>Risk Dialogue </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Stakeholders involved and affected have to be involved in the risk management process via a comprehensive risk dialogue </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Public Private Partnership </li></ul><ul><ul><li>a creative venture between the public and private sector, build on the expertise of each partner, that best meets clearly defined public needs through the appropriate allocation of resources, risks and rewards </li></ul></ul>
ASPECTS OF IRM <ul><li>Multinational and Global Risks </li></ul><ul><ul><li>National strategies should not neglect the existence of multinational, global risks. Frameworks, principles, strategies mechanisms and methods have to be established or adapted to work on a global level </li></ul></ul>
SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK <ul><li>Acquisition of reliable data </li></ul><ul><li>Transparency (open partnership) </li></ul><ul><li>Professional and clear communication </li></ul><ul><li>Holistic and integrative approach to risk management </li></ul><ul><li>Cost-benefit analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>Context (crosschecked technological, biological, sociopolitical) </li></ul>
4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012 Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World 26- 30 August 2012 Davos / Switzerland with pre- and post-conferences For up-to-date information and to sign up for our newsletter please visit www.grforum.org From Thoughts to Action
GRF One Health Summit 2012 One Health – One Planet – One Future Risks and Opportunities 19-23 February 2012 Davos, Switzerland Call for contributions until 30 June 2011
FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! [email_address] CONTACT INFORMATION Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600 Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610 [email_address] www.grforum.org