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MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b
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MENG-Risk differentiation for critical infrastructure protection-ID1504-IDRC2014_b

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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  • 1. Risk Differentiation for Critical 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Infrastructure Protection Sascha Meng*, Marcus Wiens & Frank Schultmann Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Institute for Industrial Production Hertzstraße 16, Bldg. 06.33, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany
  • 2. Why protecting critical infrastructures? 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • 3. Characteristics of critical infrastructures 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org » essential for welfare » connected, interdependent, complex » exposed to risks
  • 4. uncertainty event consequences knowledge 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk and risk types » risk = function risk type 1 chance risk type 2 choice
  • 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risks type 1 » caused by nature or randomness » unintentional » without interaction » safety-relevant  fire, floods, storms, earthquakes, …  technical failures, material defects, …  unintentional mistakes (errors), ignorance
  • 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risks type 2 » caused by malicious human behaviour » mainly intentional » with interaction » security-relevant (and safety-relevant)  fire (arson)  fraud, bribery, thievery  terrorism
  • 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk management risk identification risk analysis risk evaluation risk treatment risk monitoring different risks, same approach?
  • 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk analysis hitherto » one (standard) approach » probability based » interactions not considered  variance analysis, probability risk analysis, scenario analysis, bayesian analysis, …
  • 9. type 1 type 2 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk analysis hitherto - example adverse event event 1 event 2 likelihood without protect. 1 > 2 3 > 4 likelihood with protect. 1 2 > 3 4 < > adaptability
  • 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Risk analysis in future » different (suitable) approaches » probability based (where possible) » interactions considered (if necessary)  variance analysis, probability risk analysis, scenario analysis, bayesian analysis, …  game theory
  • 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conclusions » rethink risk analysis » improve risk analysis approaches » integrate different risk analysis approaches
  • 12. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction • How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – it provides a general approach, applicable to many fields – it focuses on general problems rather than on specific problems – the approach can be used to mitigate the consequences of man-made as well as of natural hazards • From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: there is need to better understand complexity in systems – Education & Training: there is a need to improve risk perception – Implementation & Practice: there is a need for tailored risk analysis – Policy: there is a need for better risk policies
  • 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you for your attention. Contact details Dipl.-Ing. Sascha Meng Karlsruhe Institute of Technology Institute for Industrial Production Research Group on Risk Management Hertzstrasse 16, Bldg. 06.33, 76187 Karlsruhe, Germany +49 721 608 44577 sascha.meng@kit.edu

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