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Martin BANSE "A European network of crop, livestock and trade modelling activities for assessing impacts of climate change on food security"
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Martin BANSE "A European network of crop, livestock and trade modelling activities for assessing impacts of climate change on food security"

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    Martin BANSE "A European network of crop, livestock and trade modelling activities for assessing impacts of climate change on food security" Martin BANSE "A European network of crop, livestock and trade modelling activities for assessing impacts of climate change on food security" Presentation Transcript

    • Integrated modelling of climateimpacts on food and farming atregional to supranational scales Session 212
    • Schedule16:40 Banse et al.: MACSUR17:00 Dono et al.: Economic & uncertainty17:20 Gutierrez et al.: Climate & grain prices17:40 Podhora et al.: Science & stakeholders18:00 Brouwer (cancelled after Brazil meeting)
    • A European network of crop, livestock and trade modelling — activities for assessingimpacts of climate change on food security M. Banse1, M. Köchy1, R. Tiffin2 1 ThünenInstitute, Braunschweig, DE 2 University of Reading, UK
    • Challenges• Change in climate — CO2, drought (temp. × precip.), extremes, spatial and temporal correlation• Growing world population — increasing food demand• Increasing prosperity — change in lifestyle, more meat
    • FACCE MACSURModelling European Agriculture withClimate Change for Food Security• “Knowledge Hub” initiated by 17 European countries + Israel — within the FACCE Joint Programming Initiative• started 1 June, 2012; runs 3 yrs
    • Project questions• Will there be enough food in the future?• What’s the effect of climate change on food security?• What’s the contribution of Europe to global food security?• How can the uncertainty of model projections be reduced? MA K A A Y E RTN LS
    • MACSUR’s aims• bolster European capacity in responding to the challenges of global change for agriculture and food security• assist countries outside Europe in their endeavors towards sustainable agriculture and food security in the face of climate change
    • Modelling food security climate ! $$ world marketCO₂ ! food ! feed beef/milk Betriebe farms porkcrops
    • Inventories of models B PE L G C YS IM AI ICS CA Jm E-B IC CS• 6 grassland models aS AR ST IS P M E P A P C AD L BI O SP W• 86 crop models rs ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers ers IC he h h h h h h h h h h h P ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot ot E Jm L LP im S pl E AC ICS DE LU Y I ST EN DA WO PJ- M L T S FOS UE G SS• 26 economic models D D D D O O O O IE IOM RI O D A A FI RIA O D O D EM EM EM EM GP OB AP M SM M M EM M M M M A C AR PA E O S A P A4 AG M AG A G A G AG M G L SF DR
    • Different scales ~ different models • point or plot models: crops, grassland • farm-level models, diverse approaches — farm investment models, land allocation • regional and national models — country as one farm • international and global models — international trade and policies, expected production and prices
    • Integrationand scaling
    • Integration and scaling• ensemble simulations — benchmarking — estimate of model uncertainty• several regional foci• linking of models via on-demand coupled output/input• integration for stakeholders,“tool box”
    • MACSUR int’l cooperationSharing of scenarios, MACSUR emphasizes protocols, and data • crop rotations • integration across themes — AgMIP • micro and macro levels — AgTrials • European diversity in soil, — FoodSecure climate, and systems. — AnimalChange • knowledge exchange & — MultiSward collaboration • training of integrative — CCAFS modellers
    • MACSUR Mission• improve and integrate models of crop and livestock production, farms, and national & international agri-food markets l i nk ed m odel s• demonstrate the integration of these models tools for selected farming systems and regions• provide hands-on training to young and experienced researchers in integrative modeling
    • European contribution to global food security• develop methods for linking models• develop training for (young) scientists• assess contribution of crop production to global food supply
    • For further informationplease visit: www.macsur.eu
    • FACCE MACSUR17 countries •Israel•Austria •Italy•Belgium •The Netherlands•Czech Rep. •Norway•Denmark •Poland•Estonia •Romania•Finland •Spain•France •Sweden•Germany •UK © EuroGeographics for the administrative boundaries71 organizations, 230 scientists