Analysis of multi-risk to human life at county level in  the Yangtze River Delta Baoyin LIU, Wei XU Beijing Normal Univers...
Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Background </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-risk analysis </li></ul></u...
1. Introduction  Global natural catastrophes 1980 – 2008 Overall and insured losses with trend Munich Re, 2009
<ul><li>United Nations  (2004 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Risk =  Hazard × Vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>International Union of ...
Flood Earthquake Typhoon Other hazards Based on single-hazard risk  assessment, put different types of  hazards into a sys...
Multi-risk assessment It required a lot very detailed data which were hard to collect; It calculated the multi-risk by agg...
Yangtze River Delta Area: 99,600 sq. km Population: 85 million  18.7% of GDP, 22% of financial revenue, and 18.4% of expor...
2.Multi-risk assessment to human life at county level in the Yangtze River Delta 2.1 The multi-risk assessment method Typh...
<ul><li>2.2 Multi-hazard analysis   </li></ul>Evaluation Indicators for Multi-hazard   Seismic intensity (Generation 4) Ea...
Weight of evaluation system for  Multi-hazard 0.0033 55 Earthquake  0.4141 5659 Flood  0.5826 7049 Typhoon  Weight( w a ) ...
Multi-hazard Index(1949-2000)  Higher Area:   south-eastern  Affected frequently by Typhoon:   Taizhou**, Zhoushan, Ningbo...
Evaluation Indicators for Vulnerability   2.3 Vulnerability analysis   Per medical institution coverage area  No. of hospi...
The weight ( w i ) of each indicators are calculated through the entropy method 0.4182   0.0615  0.0420  0.8658 0.9803 0.9...
Human Life Vulnerability  Index Higher Area:   northern and southern  Locate far away from the metropolitans,  with low tr...
2.4 Exposure analysis The population density of 140 county-level city are taken into normalization to get the exposure ind...
2.5 Multi-hazard risk analysis H V E
Multi-hazard risk index of  Human Life Higher Area:   northeast southern  Shanghai Lower Area:   northwest
3. Conclusions and discussions <ul><li>The multi-hazard index :  calculated according to the  average historical annual  p...
Next steps <ul><li>Theoretical work on integrating multi-hazard </li></ul><ul><li>To take the probability of hazard to be ...
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Analysis of multi-hazard risk to human life at County Level in the Yangtze River Delta of China

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Analysis of multi-hazard risk to human life at County Level in the Yangtze River Delta of China

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Analysis of multi-hazard risk to human life at County Level in the Yangtze River Delta of China

  1. 1. Analysis of multi-risk to human life at county level in the Yangtze River Delta Baoyin LIU, Wei XU Beijing Normal University baoyin@ires. cn Funded by the Project in the National Science & Technology Pillar Program (2008BAK50B07)
  2. 2. Outline <ul><li>Introduction </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Background </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Multi-risk analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Multi-risk assessment to human life at county level in the Yangtze River Delta </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Hazard analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Vulnerability analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Exposure analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk analysis </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Conclusions and future works </li></ul>
  3. 3. 1. Introduction Global natural catastrophes 1980 – 2008 Overall and insured losses with trend Munich Re, 2009
  4. 4. <ul><li>United Nations (2004 ) </li></ul><ul><li>Risk = Hazard × Vulnerability </li></ul><ul><li>International Union of Geological Sciences </li></ul><ul><li>Risk = Probability × Consequences </li></ul>Disaster risks
  5. 5. Flood Earthquake Typhoon Other hazards Based on single-hazard risk assessment, put different types of hazards into a system for comprehensive evaluation. Establish the Multi-risk insurance system Enhancing the risk awareness of local government
  6. 6. Multi-risk assessment It required a lot very detailed data which were hard to collect; It calculated the multi-risk by aggregating all single-hazard risk with equal weight, the results were not so reliable. TEMRAP(The European Multi-Hazard Risk Assessment Project) There is no attention to exposed elements and vulnerability. DDRM It required a lot very detailed data which were hard to collect. JRC It calculated mortality and economic losses in grid cell; It calculated the multi-risk by aggregating all single-hazard risk with equal weight, the results were not so reliable. World Bank Methodology -Natural Disaster Hotspots The analysis is limited by availability and quality of historical data on the incidence of hazards; It considers only a limited number of hazards. FEMA It calculated the multi-risk by aggregate all single-hazard risk with equal weight; It suits for a small-scale analysis due to the data collection; It took probability of spatial impact and probability of seasonal occurrence into account University of Bonn It calculated the multi-hazard index by aggregate all hazards with equal weight. Calculation of the Total Place Vulnerability Index in the State of South Carolina It required a lot very detailed data which were hard to collect; The analysis is limited by issues of scale Munich Re – Natural Hazard Index for Mega Cities It used Delphi method to determine the weight and required a lot very detailed data which were hard to collect ESPON 2006 Assessment model Remarks Approaches
  7. 7. Yangtze River Delta Area: 99,600 sq. km Population: 85 million 18.7% of GDP, 22% of financial revenue, and 18.4% of export trade (as of 2004) Main hazards: floods, typhoon, earthquake
  8. 8. 2.Multi-risk assessment to human life at county level in the Yangtze River Delta 2.1 The multi-risk assessment method Typhoon Flood Earthquake Gender ratio Age structure Traffic condition Telecommunication Medical condition Population density Multi-hazard Vulnerability Exposure Multi -risk to human life
  9. 9. <ul><li>2.2 Multi-hazard analysis </li></ul>Evaluation Indicators for Multi-hazard Seismic intensity (Generation 4) Earthquake Flow times (1949-2000) Flood Influence times (1949-2000) Typhoon Evaluation Indicator Hazard
  10. 10. Weight of evaluation system for Multi-hazard 0.0033 55 Earthquake 0.4141 5659 Flood 0.5826 7049 Typhoon Weight( w a ) decided by t he average historical annual percent of death Death toll Hazards
  11. 11. Multi-hazard Index(1949-2000) Higher Area: south-eastern Affected frequently by Typhoon: Taizhou**, Zhoushan, Ningbo Affected frequently by Flood: Shanghai, Hangzhou, Suzhou.
  12. 12. Evaluation Indicators for Vulnerability 2.3 Vulnerability analysis Per medical institution coverage area No. of hospital beds per 10,000 persons No. of doctors per 10,000 persons Medical condition No. of mobile phone per capita No. of internet per capita Telecom- munication Road length (km) per square kilometer Road length (km) per 10,000 persons Traffic condition Over 15 but under 65 Age structure Ratio of male to female Gender Indicator Factor
  13. 13. The weight ( w i ) of each indicators are calculated through the entropy method 0.4182 0.0615 0.0420 0.8658 0.9803 0.9865 Per medical institution coverage area No. of hospital beds per 10,000 persons No. of doctors per 10,000 persons Medical condition 0.0977 0.2525 0.9687 0.9190 No. of mobile phone per capita No. of internet per capita Telecom- munication 0.0700 0.0576 0.9775 0.9815 Road length (km) per square kilometer Road length (km) per 10,000 persons Traffic condition 0.0002 0.99994 Over 15 but under 65 Age structure 0.0003 0.99991 Ratio of male to female Gender Weight( w i ) Entropy ( e j ) Indicator Factor
  14. 14. Human Life Vulnerability Index Higher Area: northern and southern Locate far away from the metropolitans, with low traffic network, telecommunication cover rate, and poor medical condition.
  15. 15. 2.4 Exposure analysis The population density of 140 county-level city are taken into normalization to get the exposure index. Human Life Exposure Index Higher Area: north-eastern Highest Area: Shanghai
  16. 16. 2.5 Multi-hazard risk analysis H V E
  17. 17. Multi-hazard risk index of Human Life Higher Area: northeast southern Shanghai Lower Area: northwest
  18. 18. 3. Conclusions and discussions <ul><li>The multi-hazard index : calculated according to the average historical annual percent of death caused by each hazard </li></ul><ul><li>The multi-risk to human life : obtained by considering the multi-hazard, vulnerability and exposure </li></ul><ul><li>The method is very simple and easy , and can be expanded to evaluate the risk of more than three hazards </li></ul>
  19. 19. Next steps <ul><li>Theoretical work on integrating multi-hazard </li></ul><ul><li>To take the probability of hazard to be included </li></ul><ul><li>To make risk analysis by concerning the relationship between different hazards, or to make the risk analysis of disaster chains in other words. </li></ul>
  20. 20. Thank You!

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