Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the world

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Peijun SHI1, Carlo JAEGER2 …

Peijun SHI1, Carlo JAEGER2

1Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, People's Republic of; 2Global Systems, Dynamics and Policy, Global Climate Forum

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  • 1. Session : Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the worldTime: Wednesday, 29/Aug/2012: 1:00pm - 2:30pm Session Chair: Peijun SHI, Beijing Normal University Carlo JAEGER, Global Climate Forum, PIKLocation: Sertig Session organized by the Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, and Global Systems, Dynamics and Policy, Global Climate Forum
  • 2. Lessons learned from recent very large-scale disasters in the worldPeijun SHI1, Carlo JAEGER21 Integrated Risk Governance Project/IHDP, China, Peoples Republic of;2 Global Systems, Dynamics and Policy, Global Climate ForumIn recent years, the whole world experienced various very large-scaledisasters including earthquakes in China, New Zealand and Haiti, floods inSoutheast Asia, and more significantly, the Triple Disaster in Japan. It isunfortunate that the governing bodies at all levels still lack of coping capacityand mechanism to prevent and mitigate such disasters as well as recoverefficiently and effectively from such events.In this session, experts from the IRG Project community and the GlobalClimate Forum will present their research findings based on case studies toidentify the lessons learned from different countries and different disasters.Innovative concepts and ideas, not only in sciences and technology but alsoin policy making and human behavior change, are expected to be discussedand debated for the purpose of improving and assisting risk governancepractice globally.
  • 3. Presentations: Hirokazu, TATANO, Professor ,Kyoto University Implications of the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake for Disaster Risk Reduction Planning and managementQian, Ye, Professor , Executive director, , IHDP-IRG Project, ,Beijing Normal University Much money and too little money: lessons learned from recent global disasters Armin, Haas, Senior Researcher ,Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Lessons learned from very large disasters – some remarks about imagination and co-ordination Xiaobing, Hu, Associate Professor ,Beijing Normal University Ripple-Spreading Models and Algorithms for Integrated Risk Governance Peijun, Shi, Professor , Co-chair, IHDP-IRG Project, Executive Vice President ,Beijing Normal University Lessons Learned from Recent Large-Scale Disasters in the World
  • 4. 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC Davos 2012"Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society"26-30 August 2012Davos, Switzerland Lessons Learned from Recent Large-Scale Disasters in the World Peijun Shi State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University; Key Laboratory of Environmental Change and Natural Disaster, Ministry of Education of China; Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education, P.R.China
  • 5. Lage-scale disasters in recent years 2008 Wenchuan earthquake 2010 Haiti earthquake2011 New Zealand earthquake 2011 Japan earthquake-tsunami
  • 6. Large-scale disasters in recent years 2005 Hurricane Katrina 2008 Ice strom Southern China2010 floods in Southeast Asia 2011 Drought in East Africa
  • 7. Contents1 Background2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world3 The cause of the LSD4 What can we learn from the LSD5 Conclusions
  • 8. Global climate change and natural disasters
  • 9. Source:Wetterstation HohenpeiBenberg Heavy rainfall Changes in the U.S Heavy rainfall Changes in Germany 160 時間雨量60m m 以上 120 平均  0 回/年 1 3 平均  2 8 回/年 平均  7 6 回/年(単位:回) 80 40 10 時間雨量100m m 以上 Trends and magnitude of 0 平均  . 回/年 4 8 changes (単位:回) 5 平均  . 回/年 2 2 平均  . 回/年 23 S53 S54 S55 S59 S61 S63 S51 S52 S56 S57 S58 S60 S62 H11 H12 H13 H10 H14 H15 0 H2 H3 H9 H1 H4 H5 H6 H7 H8Heavy rainfall Changes in Japan
  • 10. Contents1 Background2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world3 The cause of the LSD4 What can we learn from the LSD5 Conclusions
  • 11. What ‘s the definition of large-scale disaster ? A serious disaster due to hazards encountered once in one century, causing huge human casualties and property losses and wide range of impact, which, upon occurring, cannot be independently coped with by the disaster impacted area and has to be aided by means of external forces.Large-scale disasters will usually: Cause a total death of more than 10,000 persons A direct economic loss of more than RMB 100 billion Yuan (10 billion euro) An affected area of over 100,000km2
  • 12. Major Charactristics of Large-scale Disaster Huge huaman casualties Eg., China Wenchuan Earthquake in 2008 caused in total more than 80,000 victims, including 69,227 persons killed and 17,923 persons missing, and injuries to 374,600 persons High property losses Eg., The Hurricane Katrina of USA in 2005 caused a loss of nearly USD 100 billion Large-scale affected area Eg., The Indian Ocean Earthquake and the tsunami triggered thereof in late 2004 involved 15 countries along the coast of the Indian Ocean Broad economic - social - ecological impact Eg., the 2011 earthquake in northeastern Japan Sea and the tsunami it caused on the mechanical and electrical production in East Asia and the Pacific Coast - public health - the atmospheric environment and marine ecosystem wide effects.
  • 13. Standard of Large-scale Disaster Classification Death Toll Direct Disaster Index Intensity ( person Economics area Type (frequency) ) Losses ( km2 ) ( billon ) Large-Scale 7.0 ( magnitude ) or ≧10,000 ≧1,000.0 ≧100,000.0 Disaster >1/100a Big Disaster 6.5-7.0 ( magnitude ) 10,000.0- 1,000-9,999 100.0-999.0 Or 1/50a-1/100a 99,999.0 Medium Disaster 6.0-6.5 ( magnitude ) 1,000.0- 100-999 10.0-99.0 Or 1/10a-1/50a 9,999.0 Small Disaster <6.0 ( magnitude ) or < ≤99 ≤9.0 ≤999.0 1/10a Notes: (1) The standard for different disaster grades shall meet any two of the items for the index; (2) Dead population includes the population killed and the population missing for more than 1 month; (3) The direct property loss means the value of properties actually damaged in the year due to the disaster; (4) Disaster area refers to the disaster area with human casualties or property loss or damaged ecological systemdue to the disaster.
  • 14. Cases of Worldwide LSDs (1989-2011) EconomicYear Disaster Name Intensity (frequency) Death Toll (persons) Affected Area (104km2) Losses (100M RMB) RMB) Kobe Earthquake1995 7.3 6,434 dead Approx. 12.0 7,175.0 Disaster in Japan Yangtze River Basin1998 Flood in China 1/50a-1/100a 1,562 persons dead 22.3 1,070.02003 European Heat Wave 1/50a-1/100a 37,451 persons dead Approx. 100.0 1,300.0 Indian Ocean 800km coastal line serious 230,210 persons dead2004 Earthquake-Tsunami 8.9 damaged, deep into the Approx. 70.0 45,752 persons missing Disaster inland by 5km Hurricane Katrina in2005 1/100a 1,300 persons dead Approx. 40.0 Approx. 8,750.0 USA Kashmir Earthquake in2005 7.6 About 80,000 persons dead Approx. 20.0 Approx. 350.0 South Asia Burma Hurricane 78,000 persons dead2008 1/50a-1/100a Approx. 20.0 Approx. 280.0 Disaster 56,000 persons missing Freezing Rain & Snow 129 persons dead2008 Disaster in Southern 1/50a-1/100a Approx. 100.0 1516.5 4 persons missing China Wenchuan Earthquake 69,227 persons dead2008 8.0 Approx. 50.0 8,500.0-9,000.0 Disaster in China 17,923 persons missing2010 Haiti earthquake 7.3 225,000persons dead 6,361.3 14,063 persons dead2011 East Japan earthquake 9.0 14,949.1 13,691 persons missing
  • 15. Contents1 Background2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world3 The cause of the LSD4 What can we learn from the LSD5 Conclusions
  • 16. Disaster-chains and LSD Disaster-chains triggered by a severe or enormous disaster event are generally the reason for the huge losses of LSD. General structures of disaster chains Type 1: Type 2:General Structure of Disaster Parallel Disaster Chains (Ripple effect)Chains (“Domino Effect”)H = hazards, E= natural dynamic process of earth system,d1 = primary disaster H1,…, Hm = primary hazards,dn = secondary disaster of nth order d1,dn,dm1,dmn,… = secondary disasters
  • 17. Typical disaster chains DroughtEarthquake Cold wave – strong wind Typhoon – rainstorm
  • 18. The relationship between disaster-chain, multi-hazard, and LSD Disaster-chains and multi-hazards are often used in various disaster studies, but there are various understandings regarding to their essential difference (Shi et al., 2010a). Multi-hazard is a statistical concept of diversified hazard types under a specific temporal-spatial context. Generally there is no causal or triggering relationship between hazards. Disaster- chain and hazard-chain are processes with triggering, cascading or ripple effects (Shi, 1991). The existence of multi-hazards is not a sufficient and necessary conditions for the formation of a LSD; only when the multi- hazards meeting together will it be possible to trigger a LSD. The emergence of disaster-chain due to severe or enormous disaster is the necessary and adequate condition for formation of a LSD. Only with an extremely high prevention level will the LSD not be initiated.
  • 19. Contents1 Background2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world3 The cause of the LSD4 What can we learn from the LSD5 Conclusions
  • 20. Case analysis of global response to the LSD:experiences and lessons learned Case 1: Response to the East Japan Great Earthquake-Tsunami Time:Japan time at 14:46 on March 11th, 2011 (Beijing time at 13:46 on March 11, 2011) Location: northeastern Japan Epicenter longitude and latitude: 38.1 degrees north latitude, 142.6 degrees east longitude Focal depth: 10 km Magnitude: Richter 9.0 Epicentral intensity: Ⅸ degree Casualties: 14,063 dead and 13,691 missing (at 19:00 on April 12, 2011)
  • 21. Highlights in the emergency response to 311 Japan EarthquakeTechnical perspectiveJapan did not make any long-term, short-term and pre-quake forecasting of the“3.11” earthquake. Research outcomes in the past 10 years did not include thisarea in key research and prevention.Government perspectiveExcept for some officials exposed by the media as delinquent, the overallresponse was effectively. The government successfully maintained stableness in the impacted area and the whole country. All kinds of power were organized toensure the efficiency of disaster emergency response and post-disasterreconstruction.Enterprises perspectiveExcept for Tokyo Electric Power which impacted by the LSD, most enterprisesresponded steadily and properly according to emergency response plan duringLSD.Public perspectiveJapanese public maintained good consciousness for disaster prevention andreduction as well as relatively sophisticated disaster escape skills.
  • 22. summary From the above four aspects, it may be observed that Japan has many valuable experiences in responding to LSDs, which can be used for reference by other countries in the world. However, from huge losses, severe secondary disasters, and extremely hard emergency rescue, we can still learn some lessons for responding to such LSDs: When it is rather difficult for the modern science and technology to improve on the accuracy of forecasting LSD, an effective measure is to improve the Fortification level. It is urgent to pay attention to the potential huge calamities that may result from disaster chains triggered by severe or enormous disasters. Attention needs to given to other faults with less significant activities in recent years but which have the potential to cause LSD.
  • 23. Case 2: Response to China Wenchuan Earthquake-Collapse-Landslide 14:28 pm on May 12 of 2008, a major earthquake measuring 8 Richter scale jolted Wenchuan County of Southwest China’s Sichuan province.The most serious earthquake of China since 1949: – High population intensity – large disaster-affected area – serious frequent aftershocks and secondary disasters – Huge difficulties in disaster relief – the most severe damages and lossesEarthquake Disaster Chain of Wenchuan,China in 2008
  • 24. Highlights in the response to Wenchuan Earthquake Technical perspective No short-term and pre-quake forecasting were made. In previous relevant research, as this region is in the South-North seismic zone of China, Ministry of Science and Technology and China Earthquake Administration had enhanced the observation and monitoring of the active tectonics in this region and comparatively promptly published the epicenter and intensity of the earthquake, though not the seismic intensity range. Government perspective Media spoke highly of the Chinese central and local governments for responding to this LSD. Enterprises perspective In the whole disaster area, almost all enterprise except for extremely few state- owned large-scale enterprises suffered severe losses due to their low prevention capacity. Public perspective The weak pubic consciousness for disaster prevention and reduction in the disaster area, the whole economic society was in a relatively backward state in China.
  • 25. summary From the above four perspectives, it is observed that the “national response” mode formed by China in responding to LSD has been effective. It fully used of national forces, partner assistance, uniform leadership, organization and steering of the central government, implemented a “human-oriented” and “scientific” response, and promptly participated in LSD emergency so as to minimize the disaster consequences, carry out the recovery and reconstruction at a fastest possible speed and increase the capacity of the disaster area to respond to future LSDs. From this catastrophe we learned lessons including: The low Fortification standard and level. Enterprise property, public property and family property which are involved in insurance level is too low The disaster area people have very low prevent disaster risk consciousness, and it has a very important influence to prevent the LSD.
  • 26. Contents1 Background2 Large-scale disasters(LSD) in the world3 The cause of the LSD4 What can we learn from the LSD5 Conclusions
  • 27. Conclusions With global change and human development, large-scale disasters (LSDs) cause heavy losses to human beings. We must find new ways to face LSDs. The existence of a disaster-chain impacted by a natural harzads is the necessary and sufficient condition for a LSD, only with an extremely high disaster prevention level it will not be initiated. A multi-hazard phenomenon is not a sufficient condition for a LSD and only when the multi-hazards meeting together it will be possible to trigger a LSD. Since the global impact of LSDs, we must give full play to the role of the United Nations, governments, businesses, especially transnational enterprises and individuals. For the in-depth analysis of LSD impacts and the establishment of LSD risk governance paradigm, it is necessary learn from the successes and failures in each response to LSD. There is need to absorb the wisdom and talent of different nations and learn from the profound lessons of human beings in the history of fighting with LSD.
  • 28. Consilience Model for LSD Governance
  • 29. Thank you!