Lene POULSEN "The economics of resilience"


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Lene POULSEN "The economics of resilience"

  1. 1. Economic Assessment of Desertification, Sustainable Land Management And Resilience Of Arid, Semi-arid And Dry Sub-humid Areas UNCCD 2nd Scientific ConferenceSpecial Session : Towards a Land-Degradation Neutral World: from Science to Policy - Experts’ Dialogue and Workshop 11 April 2013 RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT AS A MEANS TOWARDS THE SUSTAINABILITY GOAL OF ZNLD Lene.Poulsen@gmail.com 1| Slide
  2. 2. BRIEF RECALL: ZERO NET LAND DEGRADATION GoalSustainable land use for all and by all (in agriculture,forestry, energy, urbanization – UNCCD Sec., 2012). MeansSustainable land management: Planning, organizing,and monitoring land use activities in a manner thatwill ensure positive trends in the value of the linkedsocial-ecological systems, including the monetarynet present value of longer-term future benefits. 2| Slide
  3. 3. COMPLEX SYSTEMS• Heterogeneity – multi-scale• Interconnection – Interdependency - Feedbacks• Non-linearity of causation• Dynamic and Adaptive• Emergence• Thresholds - Phase transitions Managing social-ecological systems calls for Management of complexity 3| Slide
  4. 4. MANAGING COMPLEX SYSTEMSManagement of complexity:• Uncertainty• Unpredictability• How to define boundaries• How to define thresholds• How to recognize slow regime shifts Specific requirements for effective management of complexity 4| Slide
  5. 5. CHARACTERISTICS OF EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF DRYLANDS (COMPLEX SOCIO-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS)• Acceptance of uncertainty• Adaptive with a good learning capacity• Multidirectional connectedness and diversity• Coping capacity• Address critical feedbacks• Flexible and innovative with redundancy• Social capital• Transformative capacity• Good governance i.e., managing for resilience 5| Slide
  6. 6. RESILIENCE OF COMPLEX SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS - DRYLANDS -• Capacities to survive, adapt, and follow a positive trajectory in the face of external and/or internal changes, even catastrophic incidents, and rebound strengthened and more resourceful while retaining essentially the same functions. – Continuous and dynamic process – all phases from pre-stressor, during the stress, post-stress, and in between stresses – Proactive and reactive abilities vis-à-vis change – Can be fostered through interventions and policies – Constant monitoring, analyzing, learning, and rolling planning. i.e. resilience management is a means to achieve ZNLD 6| Slide
  7. 7. ECONOMIC VALUATION AS A RESILIENCE MANAGEMENT TOOL• Any economic valuation requires measurements – what is being valued?• Can resilience be measured?• Recent experience: mainly qualitative – quantitative mainly based on scores –• Some approaches: – Focusing on thresholds – theoretical - can thresholds be identified? – Specific resilience characteristics – Cost-benefit analyses focusing on different resilience strengthening measures (e.g., diversity, redundancy, responsiveness) 7| Slide
  8. 8. NIGER – RESTORATION – STRENGTHENED RESILIENCE? PREMISES AND BOUNDARIES Costs and Benefits – For Whom? – Time scale? – Spatial scale? – Towards what? 8| Slide
  9. 9. EXAMPLES OF RECENT RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS• Pastoral social-economic systems in northern Afghanistan challenged by overgrazing based on Resilience Alliance Framework (system dynamic, interactions, governance): – capture the dynamics of change, uncertainty and the interrelationships between complex social and ecological systems• Goulburn-Broken Catchment in Southeast Australia: resilience towards salinity defined as the distance between the current groundwater level and 2 meter under the surface: – value of the resilience would be the management costs of maintaining that distance• Community resilience in Haiti: resilience framework (wealth, debt and credit, coping behaviors, human capital, protection and security, community networks, and psychosocial status) 9| Slide
  10. 10. EXAMPLES OF RECENT RESILIENCE ASSESSMENTS, CON’T• Policies promoting rural resilience in EU: ex-ante evaluation focusing on funds contributing to diversity, variability, modularity, acknowledging slow variables, tight feedbacks, social capital, innovation, overlap in governance, and ecosystem services: – positive resilience impacts on the following resilience characteristics “acknowledging slow variables”, “tight feedback”, and “different levels of governance”• Support to strengthen resilience among drought-affected farmers in northern Malawi: cost-benefit analysis of diversification, capacity development, and introduction of adapted technologies activities – Positive results – but limited analyses due to time and budget constraints 10| Slide
  11. 11. RECOMMENDATIONS FOR FOCUS OF FUTURE RESEARCH• Understanding of complex dryland systems: – modeling of the dynamic relationship between dryland system elements, – feedback loops, – resilience indicators, – identification of potential thresholds, – identification of bottlenecks for resilience assessments of the dryland systems, – effective monitoring, organization, and planning of resilience management• Harmonize the use of the resilience concept 11| Slide
  12. 12. More Information: Poulsen, Lene, “Costs and Benefits ofPolicies and Practices Addressing Land Degradation and Drought in the Drylands” White Paper II. UN CCD 2nd Scientific Conference. UNCCD Secretariat, Bonn http://2sc.unccd.int THANKS! 12| Slide