5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
CONTENT 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, tec...
TRANSFORMATION IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM 
ProvincialDirectorates of Disaster and Emergency 
Structure 
Finance 
5th In...
AFAD Strategic Plan 2013-2017 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - Th...
According to the Global Humanitarian Assistance Report 2013, 
Turkey was the 3rd country in humanitarian aid after USA and...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
Transportation 
Accidents 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The ro...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
Probabi l ity of disaster occerrence 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Manageme...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
Event A 
Event B 
Event C 
Summit Event (E0) 
+ 
Event 2 (E2) 
Event 1 (E2) Event 3 (E3) 
・ 
Event 4 (E4) Event 5 (E5) 
+ ...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk M...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology &...
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KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2014_b

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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KURADA-Methodology of technological disasters risk determination-ID1057-IDRC2014_b

  1. 1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 CONTENT ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org AFAD TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS METHODOLOGIES OF TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS RISK DETERMINATION CLIMATE CHANGE INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS
  3. 3. TRANSFORMATION IN DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM ProvincialDirectorates of Disaster and Emergency Structure Finance 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org LOCAL LEVEL DISASTER MANAGEMENT SYSTEM In all provinces Administrative personnel Technical personnel Operational Staff Management of disaster and emergency actions in local level Duty Engineering activities SAR operations Coordination between institutions Central authority Local authority 81 Provinces with 11 Brigates
  4. 4. AFAD Strategic Plan 2013-2017 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Mission Building Disaster Resilient Society Goals Being A Constantly Developing And Learning Organization Establishing A Risk-centred Integrated Disaster Management System GeneralizingDisaster Management Standards Launching Out An Educational Campaign For Disaster Preparedness Being A Leading Organization In The International Arena PLANS 22 Objectives
  5. 5. According to the Global Humanitarian Assistance Report 2013, Turkey was the 3rd country in humanitarian aid after USA and UK with US $ 1 billion in 2012. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland Afganistan Albania Bosnia and Herzegovina Indonesia Palestine Haiti Iraq Iran Japan Lebanon Mongolia Pakistan Somalia Sudan www.grforum.org Chile MAJOR HUMANITARIAN ACTIVITIES INTERNATIONAL C. Africa Eqypt Myanmar Philippines Yemen
  6. 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Transportation Accidents ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org TECHNOLOGICAL DISASTERS INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS Mining Accidents Nuclear and Radiological Accidents Threat to Critical Infrastructures Massive Fires Biyological Events CLIMATE CHANGE
  7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CLIMATE CHANGE To minimize the risks of probable disasters that may occur depending on the climate change To determine climate change related disaster risks Determination of hazards and risks of disasters that may be caused by climate change Determination and assessment of sectors that will be affected by disasters that may be caused by climate change Determination of financial and technological needs to decrease the impacts of disasters caused from climate change and developing solutions
  8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CLIMATE CHANGE Determination of hazards and risks of disasters that may be caused by climate change Determination of disasters Collection of statistical data Examining seasonal changes
  9. 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CLIMATE CHANGE Determination and assessment of sectors that will be affected by disasters that may be caused by climate change. Determination environmental impacts Determination economic impacts Determination social impacts
  10. 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CLIMATE CHANGE Determination of financial and technological needs to decrease the impacts of disasters caused from climate change and developing solutions Assessment of statistical data gathered from fieldwork Development of local/regional action plans on climate related natural disasters Dissemination of lessons learned
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS Seveso Directive Safety Report Qualitative and Quantitative risk assessment External Emergency Plans Risk assessment for domino effects
  12. 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org METHODOLOGY IDENTIFICATION OF FACILITY Strategy Organization Risk management IDENTIFICATION OF RISKS What can I do? How can I do? RISK DETERMINATION To determine probabilities To determine importance To determine level of the risks ASSESSMENT OF RISKS Comparing criteria again Determine the risks SCENARIO Select the worst case scenarios Modelling the scenarios DETERMINATION OF DOMINO EFFECTS Modelling of domino effects
  13. 13. Probabi l ity of disaster occerrence 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS -Concept of Risk Assessment Development of expansion scenario of disaster Estimation of probabi l ity of disaster occurrence Estimation of impact of disaster Comprehensive assessment of disaster risk Assumption of disaster, Study of disaster prevention measures Event A Event B Event C Low Medium High Extream Extream B A AA AA High C B A AA Medium D C B A Low D D C B Impact of disaster
  14. 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS -RISK ASSESSMENT Risk Analysis (Hazid- Hazop)
  15. 15. Event A Event B Event C Summit Event (E0) + Event 2 (E2) Event 1 (E2) Event 3 (E3) ・ Event 4 (E4) Event 5 (E5) + + Event 6 (E6) Event 7 (E7) 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS- RISK ASSESSMENT Branch probability: P2 Branch probability: P1 Frequency of occurrence: FA=F0xP1xP2 Initial event 1-P2 Frequency of occurrence: F0 Frequency of occurrence: FB=F0xP1x(1-P2) 1-P1 Frequency of occurrence: FC=F0x(1-P1) P0=P1+P2+P3 Pi<<1 P1 P2=P4xP5 P3 P4=P6+P7 P5 OR Gate AND Gate P6 P7 ・ Event tree Fault tree Bow-tie
  16. 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org INDUSTRIAL ACCIDENTS - SCENARIO Modelling the risks (TNO, EFFECTS, ALOHA, ARIPAR, PHAST…)
  17. 17. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: • TABB(TurkishDisasterDataBank) • Disaster Resilience Turkey Project • Celebrating HFA achievements on School Safety • Turkey Earthquake and Action Plan (UDSEP) • Turkish Natural Disasters Insurances and Agricultural Insurance Pool • Climate Change, Rural Development, Integrated Urban Development Strategy and Action Plans • Turkey Disaster Responce, National Mitigation and National Recovery Plans have been preparing From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: – Education & Training: – Implementation & Practice: – Policy:
  18. 18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in  Research:  development of people-cantered early warning systems  development of real time impact forecasting systems  flood guidance systems  famine early warning systems  risk assessment systems for disaster reduction and recovery  development of exposure databases, hazard and risk models  Education & Training:  development of creative educational materials  projects that bring students into contact with local community and local government  development of activities involving parents and local community through  Implementation & Practice:  increase political commitment to disaster risk reduction  improve identification and assessment of disaster risks  enhance knowledge management for disaster risk reduction  increase public awareness of disaster risk reduction  improve governance of disaster risk reduction institutions;  integrate disaster risk reduction into emergency response management.  Policy:  coordination and cooperation within and among all countries also need to be improved  humanitarian aid needs and donor promotion policies needs to promoted  progress needs to be made on climate change adaptation  adaptation of low-carbon development policies
  19. 19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org betul.kurada@afad.gov.tr https://www.facebook.com/afadbaskanlik https://twitter.com/afadbaskanlik https://www.youtube.com/user/afadbaskanlik http://instagram.com/afadbaskanlik https://www.flickr.com/photos/afadbaskanlik

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