CONCEPTUAL BASIS Why manage risk? Number of people affected by humanitarian crises has doubled over past decade. Global challenges: climate change, population growth, water scarcity = increasing risks to vulnerable people. The recently-published OCHA flagship policy report ‘Saving Lives Today and Tomorrow” and World Development Report have highlighted need to embed crisis risk management into humanitarian and development systems. To do that we need better evidence and tools to assess risk. Even more important - An objective and shared analysis of risk. Shared risk analysis can lead to better coherence and effectiveness in collective work of Gov, donors, humanitarian, development actors.
A growing number of humanitarian organisations have been trying to undertake this analysis in recent years, e.g. OCHA GFM to prioritise preparedness in AP since 2006 ECHO GNA and FCI since 2004 DFID Humanitarian Risk Register These initiatives were addressing the same problem, but were agency-specific and not widely shared. There was no objective, open risk index specifically addressing the risk of humanitarian crises that all actors could use. In 2012, through the IASC Task Team on Preparedness and Resilience, a number of organisations decided to align existing initiatives to create InfoRM. CORE GROUP Joint Research Centre of the European Commission is leading the technical work, with support from ECHO. IASC Task Team co-chairs WFP and UNICEF (UNDP is now the co-chair) OCHA has recently dedicated one member of staff to support the initiative Other agencies providing data and expertise. Core group expanding: e.g. UNHCR, FAO, IOM, World Bank, ISDR etc. A lot of support behind this initiative. A number of agencies already using the model.
Core group defined following principles to guide development Global coverage - all UN member states Open source - all results freely available Continuous - sustainable and comparable over time Transparent - methodology and sources published Flexibility - a standalone model to establish a common, basic understanding of risk + framework to incorporate additional organisation-specific, geographical or thematic components
METHODOLOGY 1 InfoRM is a way to simplify a lot of information about crisis risk. Based on risk concepts published in scientific literature. Combines around 50 different indicators that measure 3 dimensions: Hazards (events that could occur) and exposure to them; Vulnerability (the susceptibility of communities to those hazards) Capacity (resources available that can alleviate the impact). Covers 191 countries, natural and human hazards. All indicators, components and calculations are open and transparent. Source data from variety of IOs and academic institutes and considered to be the most reliable available. InfoRM working directly with source organisations to ensure quality and appropriate use.
RESULTS – Global List The 2014 version of InfoRM has been released in beta. The final version will be released for 2015. It is available at: http://inform.jrc.ec.europa.eu/
Website includes interface to analyse & download 3 main things you can do - compare countries, analyse risk in a single country, analyse risk over time
This slide shows the results as a global list, which can be used for prioritisation of countries based on risk or its components.
The results include overall risk index, sub-indices on hazards, vulnerability and capacity. All underlying data available.
This allows the user to sort and filter the results and compare countries.
RESULTS – Country profile
The results for InfoRM for a single country are essentially a national risk profile. This can be used to contribute to a risk analysis, which can identify the most important risk factors and how they could be mitigated. This is an example country profile - country profiles will be available for all countries by the full launch of InfoRM for 2015.
RESULTS – Trends
The results of InfoRM are calculated using the same methodology over a minimum of a five year period. This allows for the calculation of trends over time for InfoRM and its dimensions, categories and components. Most of the indicators used in InfoRM show small changes year to year. InfoRM is most sensitive to human hazards in a country, for example if there is a change in regime or a violent conflict. The pattern of natural hazards is relatively stable and most indicators of vulnerability and coping capacity change gradually. This is demonstrated in the case of Mali (SHOWN), in which the outbreak of conflict in 2012 raises the risk considerably and leads to increases in vulnerability, particularly vulnerable groups, in later years.
RESULTS – Trends
Small changes in risk can be considered more or less significant depending on the existing risk level in a country. This allows countries to be prioritised as follows, with different levels of associated action: (1) High / medium risk and worsening or stable; (2) High risk and improving, Medium risk and stable, Low risk and worsening; (3) Low / medium risk and improving or stable.
InfoRM Standard Presentation AT Davos
InfoRM is a collaboration of the Inter-Agency Standing Committee Task Team for
Preparedness and Resilience and the European Commission.
'Countries at risk from humanitarian
emergencies that could overwhelm current
national response capacity, and therefore
lead to a need for international assistance'