Ine VANDECASTEELE "Mapping of current and projected Pan-European water withdrawals"
Mapping of current and projectedPan-European water withdrawals Ine Vandecasteele, Alessandra Bianchi1, Sarah Mubareka1, Arie De Roo1, Peter Burek1, Faycal Bouraoui1, Carlo Lavalle1, Okke Batelaan2 1 IES, Joint Research Centre, Ispra, Italy 2 Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
AIM - Why map water withdrawals??significant technological improvements over the last few decades per capita withdrawals actually decreasing in several EU countriesBUT.. water scarcity remains a problem in southern Europe… …and water quality is a major issue for most of Europe.. Monitoring and mapping water withdrawals are the first steps in correctly managing them.. **Results of the study were used in “The Blueprint to Safeguard Europe’s Water Resources – Communication from the Commission (COM(2012)673”
AIM - Why map water withdrawals??•To understand the temporal and spatial trends in actual withdrawal and consumption persector and their driving forces•To highlight regions where such pressures lead to unsustainably high total water consumption Sectors covered: Public Industry (Manufacturing, Energy Production) Agriculture (Irrigation, Livestock) Fig. Worldmapper: Sectorial water use expressed as relative country areas
Models used DEMAND SUPPLY Allocation of water withdrawals Estimation of freshwater availability EUClueScanner LISFLOOD Land use model (forecasting) Hydrological model (forecasting) using several drivers (eg. macro-economic, adapted to simulate longer periods population, agricultural policies) & impact of land use changes Van Der Knijff, J. M., Younis, J. and De Roo, A. P. J. (2010) LISFLOOD: a GIS-based distributedLavalle C., Baranzelli C., Batista e Silva F., Mubareka S., Rocha Gomes C., Koomen E., Hilferink M. (2011). A model for river basin scale water balance and flood simulation, International Journal ofhigh resolution land use/cover modelling framework for Europe. ICCSA 2011, Part I, LNCS 6782, pp. 60–75. Geographical Information Science, Vol. 24, No.2, 189-212.
Data Availability2006 withdrawal statistics used = country-level annual average freshwater abstraction by sector 2005-2007 OECD/EUROSTAT Joint Questionnaire on Inland Water = where incomplete or missing 2003-2007 average annual withdrawal FAO AQUASTAT 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% AGRICULTURE 50% ENERGY INDUSTRY 40% PUBLIC 30% 20% 10% 0% Northern Central/East Western Southern Collection of regional (NUTS or river basin level) statistics So far 17 EU countries covered
Public water withdrawals • Withdrawals for use in the municipal water supply • assumed to be used by residents and tourists in urban areas • Country-level statistics disaggregated to combined population & tourism density maps. Fig. Population density 2006.Fig. Tourism density August 2006 (left), January 2006 (right) Source: Batista et al., 2012
Public water withdrawals 2006 Monthly maps of weighted number of users per pixel: *Assuming tourists to have higher water use per capita (ratio 300/160, Gössling et al., 2012) User density = (P – To) + 300/160 *(Ti) P population density (annual) To nr. nights spent abroad by residents (quarterly) Ti nr. nights spent by tourists (monthly) Final map (disaggregation of country-level withdrawals): PWWi = PWWc * User densityi / ∑I User densityi PWW public water withdrawal i each pixel within a country c each countryFig. Public water withdrawals 2006, 5 km, in mm/year
Public water withdrawals 2030public withdrawals per capita kept constant•population projections - EUROSTAT•annual tourism growth factor – World TourismOrganisation projections 2020•projected land use maps - EUClueScanner100 model Netherlands 130 Poland 120 Finland Sweden 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 m w p n d h b u P 3 e a 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 c s r t i l Year Fig. Trends in public water withdrawals 1970 - 2005 Fig. Change in public water withdrawals between 2006 - 2030
Industrial water withdrawals • Withdrawals for use in manufacturing • Assumed to be exclusively in industrial areasIndustrial water withdrawals were disaggregatedto the following land use classes:•industry and commercial units,•mineral extraction sites,•port areas, airports Fig. Industrial Water withdrawals, 5km, 2006, in mm/year.
Industrial water withdrawals 2030Projection of withdrawals to 2030Driving factor: Gross Value Added for industry(General Equilibrium Model for Economy –Energy – Environment, GEM-E3, UAthens)*Land use projected to 2030“efficiency factor” (-1.69 %/yr) based on historical trendto account for technological improvementsCountry change factor (%/yr) = Δ GVA for industry (%/yr) – efficiency factor (%/yr) Fig. Change in industrial water withdrawals for 2006 – 2030.
Energy water withdrawals • Withdrawals for use in cooling • Assumed to be used exclusively in electricity productionDisaggregated to thermal power stations– selected from the European PollutantRelease and Transfer Register data base,E-PRTR, 2011 Fig. Energy water withdrawals for 2006, 5 km, in mm/yr
Energy water withdrawals 2030Driving factor: Energy consumption (Prospective Outlookon Long-term Energy Systems, POLES, IPTS, JRC)“efficiency factor” (-1.33 %/yr) based on historical trend toaccount for technological improvementsCountry change factor (%/yr) = Δ energy consumption (%/yr) – efficiency factor (%/yr) Fig. Change in energy withdrawals for 2006 – 2030
Livestock water withdrawals based on: -spatial distribution livestock: FAO livestock density maps (FAO, 2012), refined with actual livestock figures for 2005 (CAPRI, 2012) -specific water requirements per livestock type (varied with temperature to give daily maps of withdrawals; figures based on literature study)Highest withdrawals in Denmark, Belgium, theNetherlands, northern Italy, northeast Spain Fig. Annual average livestock water withdrawals 2006, 5 km, in mm/year.
Irrigation water withdrawals Based on crop growth, soil water, the irrigated areas map (Wriedt et al., 2008) and the EPIC nutrient model Water requirements estimated assuming unlimited irrigation.2030 - map updated using projected land useHighest withdrawals in southern Europe,Denmark, Belgium, the Netherlands, some partsof Eastern Europe. Fig. Irrigation water withdrawals 2006, 10km, in mm/year.
Sectorial water consumption Consumption = Withdrawal – return flow Consumption – water removed from the direct environment through evapotranspiration, conversion into a product or otherwise. Return flow - remaining water returned to the environment either directly, or after use, so having an altered quality level. For each sector we assumed a percentage of the total withdrawals to be fully consumed. These average values were then used to compute maps of water consumption.Table. Actual estimated sectorial consumption of water (UN WWDR, 2009 & expert opinion). Water withdrawal sector Water consumption from literature (%) Assumed water consumption (%) Public 10-20 20 Industry 5-10 15 Energy 1-2 2.5 Irrigation 50-60 (surface); 90 (localised) 75 Livestock - 15
Freshwater Availability Annual New Freshwater availableAverage from 1990-2010 based on observedmeteorological data (MARS + EFAS dataset,IES, JRC) as fed into LISFLOOD model Fig. The average amount of freshwater for each water region (mm per year)
Water Exploitation Index The ratio total withdrawals : total water availability indicates the extent to which the water resources in each river basin are exploited. **This Water Exploitation Index (WEI) (EEA, 2010) is calculated here at sub-catchment level for 2006 & 2030.The Water Exploitation Index (WEI) for total abstracted (WEIabs), & total consumed water (WEIcns)were calculated using LISQUAL as: WEIabs = abstraction / (external inflow + internal flow) WEIcns = (abstraction – return flow) / (external inflow + internal flow) internal flow = net generated water (rainfall – evapotranspiration + snowmelt); external inflow = inflow from upstream areas; abstraction = total water abstraction; return flow = water abstraction minus water consumption.
Water Exploitation IndexEuropean Environmental Agency (EEA, 2010) threshold defining a region as being “water scarce” = WEIabs of 20%; “severe scarcity” = WEIabs > 40%. Fig. The WEIabs per sub-catchment for 2006 (left) and 2030 (right).
CONCLUSIONS & DISCUSSIONGeneral trend of increasing exploitation of water resources in almost all catchments.WEI highlighted the regions currently experiencing high water stress: “severe scarcity” = WEIabs > 40% increasing 2006-30 in south, central Spain, Italy, Germany, Eastern Europe Water use sector Surface water (%) Groundwater (%)Groundwater exploitation Public 40 60 Industry 72 28 Energy 93 7 Agriculture 60 40 Total 69 31Water Quality • High consumption of water • Return of water with degraded quality • Altered temperature (eg. cooling water)
CONCLUSIONS & DISCUSSION More work to do…•Development of the “efficiency factor” to better reflect the trends in technologicalimprovements limiting water use•Improvement of industrial withdrawal maps to take into account variations in water useintensity of sectors (eg. food, textile, paper & pulp..)•Availability of water should affect amount actually withdrawn, ie. by introduction of a ‘waterprice’ which limits withdrawals and varies with availability•Losses due to leakages in the distribution network need to be taken into account: eg. Bulgaria(24%), Greece (16%), Malta (19%), UK (13%), EU27 average of 7.7%
RecommendationsSustainable use of water involves both the reduction ofWithdrawals - technological improvements: reduction of leakages and evaporation in the distribution system, increasing connectivity of the populationand consumption of water – public awareness, re-use of water of sufficient quality, water pricing, technological improvements (eg. reduce actual amount of water needed in production).** This study highlights the need for further research, public awareness, and policy attention forall regions, especially in those already experiencing unsustainable water withdrawals andconsumption, and directly related to that, increasing water scarcity.