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An indicator framework for the assessment of the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems


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An indicator framework for the assessment of the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems

An indicator framework for the assessment of the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems

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  • 1. An indicator framework to assess the indirect disaster vulnerability of industrial production systems IDRC 2010 30 May to 3 June 2010, Davos Mirjam Merz , Michael Hiete and Frank Schultmann
  • 2. Overview
    • Impact of natural disasters on industrial production systems
    • Vulnerability indicators for decision making in industrial disaster risk management
    • An indicator system for industrial vulnerability assessment
    • Results
      • Sector specific vulnerability
      • Regional vulnerability
    • Conclusion
  • 3. Impacts of natural disasters on production systems Natural hazard Physical damage to buildings and equipment Disruption of critical infrastructures Primary business interruptions Obstruction of workers Supply chain disruptions Secondary business interruptions Directly affected company Company within a supply chain primary secondary z. B. NATECH direct impacts Indirect impacts
  • 4. Industrial risk management and vulnerability analysis
    • Risk analysis constitutes the basis for risk mitigation and prevention and thus for industrial risk management
    • Industrial Disaster Risk:
    • Vulnerability of industrial systems constitutes the internal side of industrial disaster risk
    •  vulnerability assessment constitutes an important part of the risk assessment process
    • Industrial risk management must be implemented on different operational levels:
        •  Risk management on the company level
        •  Risk management on an administrative level
    • Risk/vulnerability assessment approaches should be adapted to level-specific requirements
    Risk = Hazard X Industrial Vulnerability
  • 5. Systems of vulnerability indicators for decision making
    • consideration of vulnerability against indirect disaster effects
    • multifaceted concept of vulnerability
        •  v ulnerability can not be measured directly
        •  development of an indicator framework to assess the vulnerability of industrial sectors against indirect disaster effects
    • Benefit of vulnerability indicator systems:
    • description of complex system characteristics in a transparent way
    • combination of quantitative and qualitative attributes
    • rankings, benchmarking
    •  relative vulnerability assessment
    Development of a theoretical framework/Identification of indicators Development of an indicator system: Assignment of indicator values Normalization/Weighting/Aggregation Visualization of results/ sensitivity analysis
  • 6. Identification of vulnerability indicators
      • Equipment dependency
      • Personnel dependency
      • Infrastructure dependency
      • Supply chain dependency
    Variables , influencing these dependencies can can be used as vulnerability indicators Supply Distribution Transformation process Transportation Transportation
    • The identified dependencies are enhanced by fragility factors and reduced by resilience factors
    Vulnerability dimensions: Input production factors equipment/machinery manpower raw material operating materials information systems Output products services residue emissions
  • 7. Hierarchical vulnerability framework
  • 8. Results – sector specific vulnerability index
  • 9. Results – infrastructure dependency
  • 10. Regionalization of sector specific results Regional industrial vulnerability = industrial vulnerability x exposure Sector Specific Vulnerability Index SSVI Sector Specific Gross Value of Production GVP
  • 11. Results – regional industrial vulnerability Gross value of production (GVP) – Industry Industrial vulnerability against indirect disaster effects Federal State of Baden-Württemberg Level of administrative districts Federal State of Baden-Württemberg Level of administrative districts
  • 12. Conclusion and Outlook
    • The presented indicator framework helps to depict the complex and multidimensional concept of indirect vulnerability of industrial sectors to disasters
    • The indicator framework enables a better understanding of industrial vulnerability and the identification of particular vulnerable processes and elements
    • Vulnerability differs strongly between different sectors
    • The integration to one overall index means loss of information
    • Limitation:
      • data availability
      • subjectivity of weighting and other methodological choices
      • interdependencies among single indicators may fudge the overall vulnerability results
    • Further Work and Outlook:
    • Analysis of indicator interdependencies: multivariate statistical analysis and FuzzyDEMATEL-Analysis
    • Sensitivity analysis with regard to indicator operationalization, selection of weights, aggregation method and vulnerability functions
  • 13. Thank you for your attention! Mirjam Merz Institute for Industrial Production (IIP) Karlruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) E-mail:
  • 14. Vulnerability dimension „ Supply chain dependency ” Rationale: If the supply side interdependence of an industrial sector is high, interruptions within upstream lying sectors have an higher impact on the sector considered Operationalization: Normalized Backward Multiplier: Fragility indicator: „Degree of supply side interdependence“
    • supply chain design is highly company dependent
    • generalizations on the sector level are difficult
    • use of input-output tables (showing the regional economic linkages of different sectors)
    Example: sector specific supply dependency Rationale: If the in-house production is high, less goods must be purchased from suppliers Operationalization: in-house production input [manufacturing costs]/overall input [manufacturing costs] Problem: Neglect of the criticality of the supplied parts Resilience indicator: „Degree of in-house production“
  • 15. Indicator Framework for indirect industrial vulnerability assessment
    • Objective of the approach:
    • industrial vulnerability: development of an indirect sector specific industrial vulnerability index
    • integration of the sector specific industrial vulnerability index into an overall framework
    • quantification of the regional indirect disaster risk for decision making (relative ranking of regions)
    Overall framework: Total Risk Index TRI Indirect Risk Index IDRI Direct Risk Index DRI Social Risk Index SRI Industrial Risk Index IRI Sector Specific Industrial Risk Index SIRI Regional Sector Allocation