IDRC14-Szalai_7_4

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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IDRC14-Szalai_7_4

  1. 1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Use of regional database for climate change and drought investigations Sandor SZALAI1, Jonathan SPINONI2, Borbala GALOS3, Mate BESSENYEI1, Peter MOLNAR4, Tamas SZENTIMREY5 1Szent Istvan University, Hungary; 2Joint Research Centre, Ispra; 3University of West Hungary, Hungary; 4National Water Authority, Hungary; 5Hungarian Meteorological Service, Hungary
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Status Problems • Increasing needs for international databases • Fulfilling the users’ requests and keeping the national data policies • Creating high quality databases Solution • Gridded database • Common software of DM and DQ methods used • Each service/institute works with own data, no common database • Results are well documented and freely available
  3. 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Problems • Less studied regions – Carpathians – Southeastern-Europe • Smaller countries mostly with complex topography • Specific effects of the Carpathian region, like summer drying
  4. 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Location
  5. 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Carpathians • Length about 1500 km, second longest in Europe • Highest peak is 2655 m • Area is 190000 km2 • Area of the project is about 500000 km2 (appr. the territory of Spain)
  6. 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Philosophy of CARPATCLIM • No common database of raw data • Each country provide the same work (hope for a network as dense as possible for the project) • Common software • National and international consistency • Near border data exchange (minimum number of data exchanged on equal basis)
  7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Participants • Leading organisation: Hungarian Meteorological Service • Participants: (Hydro)meteorological institutes and services of Austria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Poland, Serbia, Slovakia, Ukraine National Research and Development Institute of Environmental Protection of Romania Szent Istvan University from Hungary
  8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Structure • Module 1: Data rescue, quality control, and data homogenisation by the use of MASH. (Leader: SHMU) • Module 2: Data harmonisation and gridded datasets by the use of MISH. (Leader: OMSZ) • Module 3: Climate Atlas, publicly accessible dedicated web site, gridded climatological datasets and searchable metadata catalogue (Leader: RHMSS)
  9. 9. Set of meteorological variables in daily temporal resolution 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org to be provided 2 m mean daily air temperature, minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature precipitation 10 m wind direction 10 m horizontal wind speed sunshine duration cloud cover global radiation relative humidity surface vapour pressure surface air pressure snow depth
  10. 10. Set of variables and indicators to be provided for the Digital Climate Atlas of the Carpathian Region Average air temperature (2 m), average mean air temperature (2 m), minimum air temperature, maximum air temperature, precipitation, maximum 10 m horizontal wind speed, average 10 m horizontal wind speed, sunshine duration, cloud cover, global radiation, relative humidity, vapour pressure, surface air pressure, snow depth, snow water equivalent, number of frost days, number of days with Tmax above 25 °C, number of days with Tmax above 30 °C, Palfai Drought Index, Standardized Precipitation Index averaged over a three-months period, Reconnaissance Drought Index, Palmer Drought Severity Index, percentage of days without defrost (ice days), percentage of extremely hot days, percentage of severe cold days, growing season length, percentage of wet days, percentage of wet days above 20 mm/d, greatest 1-day total rainfall, greatest 5-day total rainfall, aridity index, moisture index, Ellenberg index 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Outputs • High-resolution (10 km*10 km) freely available databases • Data availability on monthly and daily level • Time frame: 1961-2010
  12. 12. Web Atlas - Home page www.carpatclim-eu.org 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org FINAL MEETING OF THE CARPATCLIM PROJECT, ISPRA, 22. – 23. APRIL 2013.
  13. 13. Temperature and precipitation averages 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  14. 14. Temperature changes, 1961-2010 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  15. 15. Seasonal temperature changes, 1961-2010 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  16. 16. Change of the annual precipitation sum 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1961-2010
  17. 17. Change of the seasonal precipitation sums 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1961-2010
  18. 18. Change in the number of wet days 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1961-2010
  19. 19. Change in the number of days with precipitation above 20 mm, 1961-2010 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  20. 20. Change in the maximum daily precipitation 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org sum, 1961-2010
  21. 21. Total number of dry days!year (left) and heavy rainfall events/30 years (right) for 1971-2000 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  22. 22. A. Kriegsmann, 2013 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  23. 23. Drought of 1990 as seen from RDI, SPEI, and SPI with 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 3, 6, and 12 accumulation windows RDI3 SPEI3 SPI3 RDI6 SPEI6 SPI6 RDI12 SPEI12 SPI12 89 12 -0.70 -0.77 -0.92 -0.61 -0.46 -0.68 -0.47 -0.32 -0.41 90 1 -0.19 -1.17 -1.40 -0.54 -0.55 -0.63 -0.37 -0.26 -0.35 90 2 -2.00 -1.62 -1.40 -1.31 -1.36 -1.27 -0.34 -0.23 -0.26 90 3 -1.74 -1.82 -1.12 -2.00 -1.96 -1.52 -0.45 -0.34 -0.34 90 4 -1.06 -0.86 -0.29 -1.58 -1.42 -1.10 -0.42 -0.28 -0.44 90 5 -0.86 -0.86 -0.65 -1.65 -1.82 -1.30 -0.82 -0.75 -0.80 90 6 -0.36 -0.22 -0.52 -1.28 -1.19 -1.10 -1.35 -1.32 -1.31 90 7 -0.91 -0.71 -1.06 -1.11 -1.07 -1.02 -1.20 -1.20 -1.17 90 8 -1.19 -0.97 -1.27 -1.33 -1.20 -1.31 -1.82 -2.09 -1.78 90 9 -0.83 -0.54 -0.95 -0.83 -0.56 -1.01 -1.71 -1.96 -1.73 90 10 -0.43 -0.27 -0.49 -0.97 -0.74 -1.08 -1.65 -1.94 -1.64 90 11 0.05 0.10 0.00 -0.88 -0.70 -0.96 -1.64 -1.86 -1.57 90 12 -0.07 0.12 0.20 -0.50 -0.35 -0.60 -1.23 -1.07 -1.15 91 1 -0.67 -0.44 -0.34 -0.56 -0.46 -0.69 -1.20 -1.10 -1.18 91 2 0.31 -0.35 -0.46 -0.02 -0.09 -0.30 -1.14 -1.02 -1.22 91 3 -1.08 -1.16 -1.22 -0.95 -0.78 -0.67 -1.07 -0.95 -1.22 91 4 -0.62 -0.59 -0.73 -0.77 -0.78 -0.79 -1.21 -1.14 -1.41 91 5 0.63 0.58 0.30 0.44 0.23 -0.07 -0.46 -0.34 -0.84 91 6 0.64 0.64 0.33 -0.05 0.00 -0.37 -0.41 -0.28 -0.73 91 7 0.96 0.92 0.92 0.51 0.52 0.44 0.05 0.12 -0.12 91 8 0.45 0.45 0.54 0.58 0.58 0.54 0.41 0.42 0.26
  24. 24. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Benefits • Possible applications in agriculture, hydrology and forestry • Improved impact studies • Risk assessment of natural disasters of meetorological origin • Possibilities for modeling the spatial distribution of species • Strong development in the applied sciences • Damage estimation, crop-yield forecast • Development of early warning systems • More accurate determination of crop sites • Choosing of production sites, etc.
  25. 25. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Acknowledgement • Author thanks to European Comission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Ispra, Italy for Contract Notice OJEU 2010/S 110-166082 dated 9 June 2010
  26. 26. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction • How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – PA2: Improved monitoring and impact studies – PA3: Bedtter access to the information – PA5: Improved results and better information supports preparedness • From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: Strenghten the harmonisation process – Education & Training: User of data (not the end-user) should be informed about the possible problems – Implementation & Practice: Better involvement of metadata – Policy: Regional cooperations
  27. 27. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you for your attention!

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