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5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
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IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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Transcript of "IDRC14-ppp-template_Berariu"

  1. 1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Applying the SD Approach to Cascading Effects in Case of Flood Events 1st Romana Berariu 2nd Christian Fikar 3rd Manfred Gronalt 4th Patrick Hirsch University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, Vienna Institute of Production and Logistics
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Introduction Focus on Flood Events • high amount of damages – 1970 - 2006 floods caused an annually loss of 3.8 billion US$ in Europe • total damage of a 100-year flood for the Upper Danube will increase Fig. 2 Overall losses in billion Euro of recorded events from 1998 - 2009 EEA, 2011 Fig. 1 Events recorded from 1998 – 2009 EEA, 2011
  3. 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Critical Infrastructure • Basis of economy, security, and health & refers to assets, systems, and networks. • Sectors included are exemplarily: – transport systems, – water and wastewater systems, – energy sectors, – information technologies, – government facilities, – food and agriculture, U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2014)  healthcare and public health,  financial service sectors,  emergency services,  communication sectors,  chemical industries, … .
  4. 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Cascading Effects • A sequence of events in which each produces the circumstances necessary for the initiation of the next • Fukushima accident (March 2011) initial event was a 9.0-magnitude earthquake  14-meter tsunami  nuclear power plant situated on the coast  high temperatures within the reactor units  series of explosions  radioactive steams were released into the environment
  5. 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Visualization of Cascading Effects • Usually modelled as sequences • System Dynamics – first applied by Forrester (1961) – enables to capture the complexity of disasters – feedback thinking through Causal-Loops (CLDs) • Example: May (2007) – cascading effects resulting from flash floods – cascading effects displayed as a cascading tree Interdependencies have to be considered!
  6. 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Comparison of Visualization Approaches Fig. 3 Cascading effects in a sequencing (left) and in a dynamic way (right) based on an example of May (2007)
  7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Advantages of the SD Approach Fig. 4 Cascading effects of flash floods as CLD based on an example of May (2007), extended to the transport sector
  8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Management Circle Fig. 5 Disaster Management Circle
  9. 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Applying the SD Approach to the Transport Sector in Case of Flood Events Fig. 6 Consequences of the flood on the transport infrastructure Fig. 7 Example of consequences of the flood on the transport infrastructure
  10. 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Simplified CLD – Disaster Relief Fig. 8 Example of CLD concerning disaster relief
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conclusion • CLDs enable to understand the complex dimensions of disaster events. • Cascading effects and relations of the different impacts of floods have been detected. • Through identification and comprehension of these dynamic interactions and cascading effects, disaster management is supported. • Ensuring best possible conditions for the victims – requires well-planned disaster management – including cascading effects in the decision-making process
  12. 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Further Steps • Further research is required with respect to quantitative considerations. • Stock-and-flow diagrams will be developed to generate deeper understanding through scenario analyses. Fig. 9 Example of a Stock-and-Flow model
  13. 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org System Dynamics Stock-and-flow model “System dynamics deals with how things change through time, which includes most of what most people find important.” Quote from Jay Forrester
  14. 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Further steps • Data collection – Literature review – Case study analyses – Interviews concerning disaster response to the European flood in 2013 have already been conducted • federal armed forces • the voluntary fire brigade • emergency medical organization – Further interviews with executive staff in case of a flooding event are planned
  15. 15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Further steps • Show how short-term response measures and long-term preventive measures (including time delays) influence the disaster evolution process. • Simulating different scenarios, by changing the exogenous variables and parameters. • It is planned to develop the prototype of a software tool that can be used for educational purposes of (future) decision- makers.
  16. 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org References • Allaby, Michael (2004). A Dictionary of Ecology, Oxford University Press Inc., New York, NY. • Barredo, José I. (2009). Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 9 (1), 97–104. • EEA (2011). Mapping the impacts of natural hazards and technological accidents in Europe — An overview of the last decade, Technical Report, No 13/2010, European Environment Angency Copenhagen, 12 Jan available at: http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/mapping-the-impacts-of-natural (accessed 15 May 2014). • EOS Project Science Office (2014). The Impact of Climate Change on Natural Disasters, available at: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/RisingCost/rising_cost5.php (accessed 15 May 2014). • European Commission (2013). Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection – Prevention, available at: http://ec.europa.eu/echo/policies/prevention_preparedness/prevention_en.htm (accessed 15 May 2014). • Feyen, Luc; Dankers, Ruger; Barredo, José I.; Kalas, Milan Bódis, Katalin.; de Roo, Ad; Lavalle, Carlo (2006). Flood risk in Europe in a changing climate, available at: http://www.preventionweb.net/files/2800_EUR22313EN.pdf (accessed 29 May 2014). • Forrester, Jay Wright (1961). Industrial Dynamics, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA. • Funabashi Y, Kitazawa K (2012). Fukushima in review: A complex disaster, a disastrous response. Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist,. Published online 1 March 2012. DOI: 10.1177/0096340212440359. • May, Fred (2007). Cascading Disaster Models in Postburn Flash Flood. In Butler, Bret W.; Cook, Wayne, The fire environment-innovations, management, and policy; conference proceedings. 26-30 March, Destin, FL, U.S Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, 443-464. • U.S. Department of Homeland Security (2014). Critical infrastructure, available at: http://www.dhs.gov/what- critical-infrastructure (accessed 20 May 2014).
  17. 17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Acknowledgments Financial support of the programme KIRAS provided by the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation, and Technology, is gratefully acknowledged.

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