5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
5th
International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014
‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & ...
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IDRC14-Cavallo

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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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IDRC14-Cavallo

  1. 1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Complex Systems Thinking: An Integral Feature of Disaster Preparedness for Unexpected Interdependent Risks Antonella Cavallo University of Adelaide, Australia antonella.cavallo@adelaide.edu.au
  2. 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known and knowable risks 2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general resilience in the community 3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle known and unexpected interdependent risks Outline
  3. 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known and knowable risks 2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general resilience in the community 3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle known and unexpected interdependent risks Outline
  4. 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Complex Complicated Chaos Simple HFA has focused mainly on known and knowable risks Snowden 2003 KnowableUnknown
  5. 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Specified resilience: identified risks South Australian State Emergency Management Plan (under review) after ISO 31000
  6. 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Interdependent risks are difficult to identify
  7. 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org A macro-view of Fukushima Daiichi risk network Earthquake Tsunami Nuclear disaster TEPCO mismanagement NISA inadequate guidelines NSC inadequate regulations Effects are reported beyond causal borders of individual systems Cavallo 2012
  8. 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org A system of systems to build community resilience Schools National Consortiums Private Sector Business Associations Media Disaster resilience - A System of Systems Approach Non profit organizations ARC Medical Associations Aboriginal and Torres Strait Island communities Citizen corps Emergency Volunteers Churches Neighborhoods PopulationSpecial Needs Local Governments Jurisdiction Port Authorities State Emergency Services Domestic Security Executive Group Emergency Management Council Emergency Management Australia Government Cavallo 2014
  9. 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known and knowable risks 2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general resilience in the community 3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle known and unexpected interdependent risks Outline
  10. 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org How do we prepare for the instability of the back loop? Fore loop Back loop Walker & Salt 2006
  11. 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Many disaster risks are unexpected Complex Systems Thinking Unforeseen Unexpected Unprepared General resilience = resilience to unknown shocks
  12. 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Specified and general resilience need to be integrated General resilience Specified resilience Resilience requires a holistic approach in place and time Complicated Complex
  13. 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org The need for ambidexterity in DRR SPECIFIED RESILIENCE GENERAL RESILIENCE Known / knowable risks Unexpected interdependent risks Complicated: cause-effect relationship can be established before the disaster Complex: cause-effect relationship can only be established in hindsight Top-down approaches Bottom-up approaches and guided self-organization Identified risks Unforeseen, unanticipated risks or unprepared community Linear thinking System thinking Exploitation of knowledge: Sense and respond Exploration: Probe, sense and respond Mitigate risk of negative events Keep a safe operating space General approach Context specific Written protocols Flexible, adaptable frameworks Standardized Customized Cavallo 2014
  14. 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Interdependent risks in a hyper-connected world The World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2011 In complex systems the sum of the components exceeds the whole
  15. 15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org A complex challenge to face with silos? D AB BC ACDBCD B A AD C ABCD System ABCD Subsystem A A1 A2 Subsystem B B1 B2 Subsystem C C1 Subsystem D D1 D2 a b D AB BC ACDBCD B A AD C ABCD System ABCD Subsystem A A1 A2 Subsystem B B1 B2 Subsystem C C1 Subsystem D D1 D2 a b D AB BC ACDBCD B A AD C ABCD System ABCD Subsystem A A1 A2 Subsystem B B1 B2 Subsystem C C1 Subsystem D D1 D2 a b D AB BC ACDBCD B A AD C ABCD System ABCD Subsystem A A1 A2 Subsystem B B1 B2 Subsystem C C1 Subsystem D D1 D2 a b D AB BC ACDBCD B A AD C ABCD System ABCD Subsystem A A1 A2 Subsystem B B1 B2 Subsystem C C1 Subsystem D D1 D2 a b D AB BC ACDBCD B A AD C ABCD System ABCD Subsystem A A1 A2 Subsystem B B1 B2 Subsystem C C1 Subsystem D D1 D2 a b D AB BC ACDBCD B A AD C ABCD System ABCD Subsystem A A1 A2 Subsystem B B1 B2 Subsystem C C1 Subsystem D D1 D2 a b
  16. 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Slide 18 Focus groups with the South Australian DRR System of Systems Cavallo 2013
  17. 17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org 1. What’s problematic about existing DRR practices? – Focused on known and knowable risks 2. Why is Complex Systems Thinking required? – To build general resilience in the community 3. What’s the key message for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction? – Encourage ambidextrous approaches to DRR to tackle known and unexpected interdependent risks Outline
  18. 18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org – 1st priority: Ensure that disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation • Why doesn’t DRR have a strong institutional basis? Is not a priority at local and national level? – 3rd priority: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels Complex Systems Thinking can help communities and institutions to develop and sustain a culture of safety and resilience Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction
  19. 19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: general resilience – Education & Training: learning to acknowledge complexity – Implementation & Practice: implement ambidexterity / get help from complex thinkers while still valuing complicated thinkers (integration) – Policy: design ambidextrous policies to encourage ABCDRR (‘asset based community disaster risk reduction’)
  20. 20. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Antonella Cavallo University of Adelaide - Australia antonella.cavallo@adelaide.edu.au

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