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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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  • 1. Flash floods and their effects on the development in 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Al- Duqm area, Sultanate of Oman Dr. Youssef Shawky Youssef Sherief Physical Geography & Remote Sensing sherief@squ.edu.om Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department
  • 2. Problem definition 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department  Although most of Oman lies within the belt of hot desert, it is subjected, sometimes to torrential rains that cause flash floods.  Generally, Flash floods within the hot desert are characterized by high velocity and low duration with sharp peak discharges.  The catastrophic of desert floods is the time of peak discharge which usually is less than one hour  Mostly, the flood comes as a wall of water.
  • 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department  Wilyat Al Duqm is classified climatically as arid to hyper arid  However, high intensity storms, capable of producing significant run-off and recharge, occur infrequently at irregular times of year  Since 1876, 78 cyclonic storms have been recorded in the northern Arabian Sea of and 33 of total hit the study area.  There are several flash floods that occurred in Oman in 2003, 2005, 2007, 2010, and 2013. Jurf, andWadi Saki in Duqm area.
  • 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department
  • 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department
  • 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department
  • 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department Data and methods  Study area  Outcrop lithology and structure  Climate conditions  Hydrological settings  Spatial analysis using GIS and remote sensing to extract wadi networks  Extraction the catchment area, and wadi networks and stream orders.  Estimation the values of runoff volume and runoff coefficient.  Results discussion and creatation risk zone map of Duqm area
  • 8. 57°15'0"E 57°30'0"E 57°45'0"E 58°0'0"E 52°0'0"E 54°0'0"E 56°0'0"E 58°0'0"E 60°0'0"E 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 16°0'0"N 18°0'0"N 20°0'0"N 22°0'0"N 24°0'0"N 26°0'0"N Duqm Shuwayr 0 50 100 200 Km Wadi Saki Arab Sea km Wadi Jurf Wadi narfun 0 5 10 20 Arab Sea Arab Sea Ras Madarka ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department Study area  Duqm development area is located in the Wilayat of Duqm on the south-east coast of Oman with a total surface area of about 1700 km2  The study area is seasonally subjected to flash floods which could be cause destroyed the infrastructure Location of Duqm Industrial area, Oman
  • 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 km Arab Sea ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department  Outcrop lithology The outcrop lithology of study area consists of mostly of sedimentary rocks which are more affected by fluvial and coastal floods  Fluvial and sabkhas deposits are distributed in wadi beds and along the coast line and covered only 10% of total area  The main faults mostly have NE-SW orientation in the main stream of Wadi Jurf, and Wadi Saay which could be helped to increase runoff in Duqm area. 57°15'0"E 57°30'0"E 57°45'0"E 0 5 10 20 Arab Sea Arab Sea STRUCTURE TERTIARY SEDIMENTARY COVER EARLY PERMIAN SEDIMENTARY BASEMENT LATE CRETACEOUS ARABIAN PLATFORM MASIRAH OPHIOLITE QUATERNARY DEPOSITS Outcrop lithology and main faults in Duqm area area
  • 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department Climate and Hydrological setting  Wilyat Al Duqm is classified as arid to hyper arid.  the catastrophic of desert floods is the time of peak discharge which usually is less than one hour, and often the flood comes as a wall of water.  Oman has been influenced by some storms which are usually associated with tropical cyclones and low pressure and caused runoff and flood hazards such as Gonu 2007, and Phet 2010 Month Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. may Jun. Jul. Aug. Seb. Oct Nov Dec. Aver. Max (mm) 162.1 20.3 41.9 191 5.1 42.9 84.8 170.9 0 33 70.1 27.9 70.1
  • 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Gonu 2007 track ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department Source: Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2011
  • 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Gonu Cyclone Classification Status: cyclone of the fifth degree, which is considered the maximum degree. Affected areas: The coast of Oman such as Mascat, Sur, and Ras ElHad Economic losses: the destruction of mostly infrastructure in coast region in Oman which coasted more Three billion dollars. Human loses: 49 deaths and 39 missing 20000 afflicted
  • 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department
  • 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department TTRM rainfall map, Phet 2010
  • 15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Phet Cyclone Classification Status: Cyclone of the fourth degree. Affected areas: the coast of Oman in Sur, Muscat, and Duqm area Economic losses: the destruction of the infrastructure of some areas, which coasted for about one billion dollar Human loses: 16 deaths and 30 missing 10000 afflicted
  • 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department
  • 17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department Tropical Storm NANAUK, 13 Jun. 2014 Tropical Storm NANAUK, 14 Jun. 2014
  • 18. Basins A. Sidrah Nafun Jurf Dhanaqirt Dunqart Saay Saki Area (km2) 38 59 275 1277 136 453 253 1500 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 km A Sidrah Duqm Shuwayr ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department 57°15'0"E 57°30'0"E 57°45'0"E 20°0'0"N 19°15'0"N 19°30'0"N 19°45'0"N 19°0'0"N 18°45'0"N 0 5 10 20 Arab Sea Arab Sea Ras Madarka Jurf Narfun Saki Arab Sea Stream Orders 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 basins Dhanaqirt Dunqart Saay
  • 19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Arab Sea km Sidrah ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department (1 ) * (9.81* ) S D p C G        Where C = runoff coefficient D = drainage density km/km2 P = the rainfall depth mm S = the average land surface slope  The runoff coefficient in the main basins is related mostly to huge basins which have usually more rainfall.  The values ranged between 9.7 in Wadi Sidrah and 15.8 inWadi Saki 57°15'0"E 57°30'0"E 57°45'0"E 0 5 10 20 Arab Sea Ras Madarka Jurf Narfun Saki Arab Sea Duqm Shuwayr Dhanaqirt Dunqart Runoff Coefficient < 10 10- 12 12- 15 > 15 Runoff coefficient
  • 20. Runoff Volume 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Arab Sea km Sidrah ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department Where V is the surface runoff volume. P is the total rainfall depth, C is runoff coefficient. A is the basin area upstream the point of interest. R is the reduction factor that depends on basin area  Runoff amount ranged between 110 in Wadi A and 6318 inWadi Saki (1000 m3).  These values related to local relief, outcrop lithology, slopes, and runoff coefficient 57°15'0"E 57°30'0"E 57°45'0"E 0 5 10 20 Arab Sea Ras Madarka Jurf Narfun Saki Arab Sea Duqm Shuwayr Dhanaqirt Dunqart Runoff volume 1000 m3 < 200 200- 400 400- 2000 > 2000
  • 21. Conclusions 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department 1. The flash floods are concentrated in basins which are characterized by steep slope and narrow channel. 2. the risk in these areas is strongly distributed in industry area around the main streams ofWadi Jurf. 3. The southern of service area had high risk fromWadi Saki which had high network orders and huge area. 4. The results of morphometric parameters and flood data indicate that duqm area need construction some Protection dams which could be proposed at the upstream of some major wadis, 5. Duqm area needs more studies in details for flood hazard as soon as possible.
  • 22. Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department The Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org  The implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action  It is better to use more technical tools as GIS and RS to asses the flood hazards, additional field work.  Identifying and assessing risk by collecting data and performing statistical analysis to determine the main problem  The main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction  Research: mostly research depends on traditional tools  Education & Training: it is important for researcher to educate and train more techniques to asses the natural risks  Policy: more cooperation between the countries in global risks
  • 23. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Sultan Qaboos University College of Arts & Social Sciences Geography Department Thanks Dr. Youssef Sherief sherief@squ.edu.om