How to integrate risk perception
findings in spatial and temporal risk
models? The Hanta virus case: Germany
Kerstin Dress...
Content
1. An EDENext experiment – and where we got so far
2. Use of models for / by PH practitioners
3. Risk appraisal: i...
1. An experiment – and where we got so far
• EDENext modellers produce findings in order to
explain the uneven distributio...
An experiment – and where we got so far –
cont‘d
Joining forces will:
• reduce data gaps
• optimize the range of data to b...
2. Use of models for / by PH practitioners
EDENext risk assessment workshop
was held in Stuttgart in July 2013
with PH pra...
Use of models for / by PH practitioners cont‘d
Questions included:
• Advantages of maps vs. simple statements?
• Mean esti...
Risk appraisal: integrating risk perception
findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d
Risk prediction for Germany (...
Risk appraisal: integrating risk perception
findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d
Findings Risk Perception Stud...
Risk appraisal: integrating risk perception
findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d
Findings Risk Perception Stud...
Risk appraisal: intergrating risk perception
findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d
Findings Risk Perception Stu...
Risk appraisal: intergrating risk perception
findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d
Findings Risk Perception Stu...
Lessons learnt
Models should not be limited just to the disease data. New approaches and
visions are required when problem...
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How To Integrate Risk Perception Findings In Spatial And Temporal Risk Models? The Hanta Virus Case.

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GRF 2nd One Health Summit 2013: Presentation by Kerstin Maja Dressel, sine-Institut gGmbH

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How To Integrate Risk Perception Findings In Spatial And Temporal Risk Models? The Hanta Virus Case.

  1. 1. How to integrate risk perception findings in spatial and temporal risk models? The Hanta virus case: Germany Kerstin Dressel & Luigi Sedda Sine-Institut Munich / University of Oxford (UK) source: www.troutunderground.com 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 Davos, 20. November 2013
  2. 2. Content 1. An EDENext experiment – and where we got so far 2. Use of models for / by PH practitioners 3. Risk appraisal: integrating risk perception findings in risk models – and vice versa 4. Questions – lessons to learn 2nd GRF One Health Summit Davos 2013 – EDENext Workshop 2
  3. 3. 1. An experiment – and where we got so far • EDENext modellers produce findings in order to explain the uneven distribution of the hantavirus in Europe, identify environmental factors of presence of the hanta virus, and try to develop predictive models for the hantavirus. • EDENext social scientists compare how the public in different European countries perceive the hantavirus risk and identify ways to improve Public Health risk communication.  C.P. Snow’s seminal book on ‘The Two Cultures’ (1959) – sciences and humanities – and the idea to overcome the divide came to our mind 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop 3
  4. 4. An experiment – and where we got so far – cont‘d Joining forces will: • reduce data gaps • optimize the range of data to be used for defining risk • lead to better models • rationalize the choice in the model output • assist the provision of more comprehensive and complete advice to Public and One Health authorities on this host (vole) and its disease (NE) • lead to better PH risk governance 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop 4
  5. 5. 2. Use of models for / by PH practitioners EDENext risk assessment workshop was held in Stuttgart in July 2013 with PH practitioners and hantavirus experts • One session was committed to questions of the meaning of models for PH purposes • Model-based questions and examples were provided by EDENext modellers NE incidence ~ Φ1 +Φ2 + Φ3 + TxsummerY-2 + ……… One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop 5
  6. 6. Use of models for / by PH practitioners cont‘d Questions included: • Advantages of maps vs. simple statements? • Mean estimates vs. best / worst case scenarios? • Most relevant spatial scale (landscape vs. regional)? • Dynamic vs. static models? • Scale of risk (presence / absence of risk)? • Role of uncertainty for PH practitioners? • More model training for PH practitioners?  Valuable input for modelers was generated which in turn will generate better models for PH 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop 6
  7. 7. Risk appraisal: integrating risk perception findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d Risk prediction for Germany (global model by Luigi Sedda, unpubl. ) 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop 7
  8. 8. Risk appraisal: integrating risk perception findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d Findings Risk Perception Study Comments from Modelers „Looking at various risk factors participants of the rural and occupational groups were more aware about various risk factors than participants in the urban group.“ This could lead to a different way to present risk analysis (more information is needed for urban people).” “Over all focus groups, many participants felt unsafe due to a general lack of knowledge about the disease. One frequent question which came up during the discussions was what a bank vole looks like.” I think if I need to produce some material for people, I would need to add some pictures of bank voles. With the warning that you can still have risk even if you don't see it. 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop 8
  9. 9. Risk appraisal: integrating risk perception findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d Findings Risk Perception Study Comments from Modelers Focus groups addressed questions of information behaviour and expectations, several aspects and diverse media were reported A possibility is to distribute posters with a barcode (QR code) linked to the risk information for the area (in order to download it directly on their mobile). “In the urban group participants suggested a kind of traffic light system instead of a standardized warning signs, in order to get more information about high risk and low risk periods. Red, yellow and green lights on the signs should inform about the actual risk situation.” We could consider all the risk >0.5 "high risk" (red), those between 0.1-0.5 medium risk (yellow) and those <0.1 low risk (green). [the threshold of 0.5 is often used for risk classification] 9 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop
  10. 10. Risk appraisal: intergrating risk perception findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d Findings Risk Perception Study “The ecological environment was a further risk perception pattern. The location of the village or neighbourhood close to a forest was mentioned as a potential risk area over all focus groups. By tendency, older people were more sensitive in regard to the perception of their ecological environment. For example, older participants observed how the mice population changed from year to year in the nearby forest or in their garden. Obviously, participants of the occupational group, who were mostly employed as park rangers in a national forest administration, were more sensitive in regard to ecological determinants influencing the mice population, such as the occurrence of beech forest and the link to food resources for bank voles or the influence of the climate, such as a hot summer.” Comments from Modelers It determines a pre-level of risk of infection (as quantitatively assessed by the model). Most of the variables (4 out of 7) selected by the model show a 2 year lag difference, i.e. cases in 2007 are related to temperatures in 2005. Hot summer is the 2nd best variable associated with human cases and 1st for power in explaining changes in the disease pattern. In short hand, the hotter is the summer the higher is the risk. 10 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop
  11. 11. Risk appraisal: intergrating risk perception findings in risk models – and vice versa, cont‘d Findings Risk Perception Study Comments from Modelers “However, I can´t work every day with a breathing mask and a protective suit. You can be careful, however I think you can´t avoid it because it is everywhere and with every move air is put into motion, which can transfer it to the respiratory tract.” (Quote: woman, 44 years, occupational I'm starting to think that we probably need information about wind patterns group) in the model 11 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop
  12. 12. Lessons learnt Models should not be limited just to the disease data. New approaches and visions are required when problems are complex, uncertainty high and involve a high dimensionality (stakeholders, practitioners, vulnerable people, organisations, government, etc.). Question to address How to define the level of involvement of the public and how to implement concern assessment in modelling process? Investigative approach needed! (who, when, where, how?) 2nd GRF One Health Summit 2013 – EDENext workshop 12

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