Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
HAITHCOAT-Developing a continental potential conflict landscape-ID1553-IDRC2014_b
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

HAITHCOAT-Developing a continental potential conflict landscape-ID1553-IDRC2014_b

30
views

Published on

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland


0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
30
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Developing a Continental Potential Conflict Landscape for Establishing Response Context: Case Study Africa Timothy L. Haithcoat Geographic Resources Center, University of Missouri, USA Erik Mueller Department of Geography, University of Missouri, USA
  • 2. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • People get involved in conflicts because their interests or their values are challenged, or because their needs are not met. • There are several basic human needs that are typically met – Food – Water – Shelter Conflict is a natural and typical phenomenon in every type of human relationships, at every level Intra-personal, local, intra-state, inter-state, global Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002
  • 3. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org • People get involved in conflicts because their interests or their values are challenged, or because their needs are not met. • There are several basic human needs that are typically met – Food – Water – Shelter • There are several basic human needs that are especially pertinent to conflict and conflict mitigation: – Recognition – Development (and self-actualization) – Security – Identity – Community Conflict is a natural and typical phenomenon in every type of human relationships, at every level Intra-personal, local, intra-state, inter-state, global Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002
  • 4. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Major Proposition of Conflict Theories • Society is not a system in equilibrium but a nebulous structure of imperfectly coordinated elements • Change and conflict are continuous and normal; inherent predispositions to change vary in scope, nature, intensity and degree • Every society, at every moment, experiences social conflict • Every element within a society contributes to its change • Every society rests on constrain of some of its members by others • Social universe is the setting within which the conflict of life are acted out Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002
  • 5. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org http://www.systemicpeace.org/conflicttrends.html
  • 6. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • 7. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org http://www.systemicpeace.org/warlist.htm
  • 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org
  • 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org CONFLICT The propensity of any two groups to have conflict increases as social differences between them (in language, religion, race, ethnicity, and cultural style) increase Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002
  • 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Grain Size of Analysis • Wanted a global model • Needed a data construct / cataloging unit • Created a Hexagon tessellation
  • 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org ACLED Database • Armed Conflict Location & Event Data • 1997 through 2013 – 17 years • Split into 4 year increments for model development and subsequent testing and refinement Types of Conflict Evaluated
  • 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org VIOLENCE • Direct violence --killing and beating--happens in interpersonal and inter-group situation • Structural violence--poverty, hunger, repression and social alienation--is associated with uneven life chances and is built into most society – Oppression and discrimination are symptoms of structural violence – Absence of direct violence is no guarantee for the lack of structural violence; not all forms of structural violence lead to direct violence Ayse Kudar, Social Assessment, Seminar presentation on conflict, 2002
  • 13. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Case Study - Africa Africa chosen: Available data for entire continent Including: Base Layers Derived Layers Validation Land cover Roughness ACLED Roads Accessibility Ethnicity Isolation Boundaries Opportunity Population Quality of Life Elevation Persecution Resources Water Hydrology English Languages Development
  • 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Road Density
  • 15. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Ethnicity
  • 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Language
  • 17. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Geospatial Tools • Topological Overlay: Identity; Union • Network Analysis • Interpolation • Zonal Statistics • Cross Tabulate • Point Density; Line Density
  • 18. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Cross Tabulate- Land Cover …… …… ……
  • 19. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Zonal Statistics - Elevation …… …… ……
  • 20. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conflict Landscape Beta1
  • 21. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org ACLID Database
  • 22. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Conflict Landscape B1-ACLID
  • 23. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Research Gaps: 1) The need to initiate ongoing monitoring of the socio-cultural parameters / dynamics to track areas of conflict concern. 2) The development of an understanding of the socio-cultural context of the risk both in terms of the geophysical but also the geopolitical 3) The development, integration, and use of geospatial models and geostatistics to support decision making. – In developing this understanding it is critical to gain perspective and insight on model interactions through sensitivity analysis and the understanding of error and its possible cascading effects.
  • 24. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Education & Training: It is critically important to systematically integrate: 1. Geospatial modelling and visualization within the education, training and exercising environments to strengthen their analytical capacity 2. Conflict and socio-cultural analysis into disaster management and risk assessment This will develop the skills and understanding of both geospatial and socio-cultural data and its proper use to support decisions. This includes the visualization of confidence in the resulting decision based on the inputs used.
  • 25. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Implementation & Training: • Consideration of conflict reduction strategies for countries with a high propensity for conflict • Give water conflicts renewed operational focus • Complement analyses of “vulnerable groups” with “conflict groups”; introduce less static concepts to social group analyses to include social, cultural, ethnic and other cohesive groups • Re-evaluate social dynamics of “border” issues and ethnicity • Re-assess role of cultural factors, especially religion, in plans and implementations
  • 26. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction Policy: In developing a more complete understanding of both the physical and socio-cultural context a policy dialogue can occur. A statement can be developed to ensure that the socio- cultural context (and its associated cascading ramifications) are incorporated into the initial disaster response, mitigation, and rebuilding plans so that stability (resiliency) can be truly achieved and maintained.
  • 27. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org A final activity to be focused on? The concept of disaster risk modeling should be incorporated into the stability / fragility indices used by others to assess a state’s resiliency.