• Save
Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×
 

Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul

on

  • 1,623 views

Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul

Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul

Statistics

Views

Total Views
1,623
Views on SlideShare
1,598
Embed Views
25

Actions

Likes
1
Downloads
0
Comments
0

4 Embeds 25

https://www.conftool.com 22
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com 1
http://www.conftool.com 1
https://twitter.com 1

Accessibility

Upload Details

Uploaded via as Microsoft PowerPoint

Usage Rights

© All Rights Reserved

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Processing…
Post Comment
Edit your comment

Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul Presentation Transcript

  • VULNERABILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN MEGACITIES: THE CASE OF ISTANBUL International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 2002 (NASA / GSFC / MITI / ERSDAC / JAROS, + U.S. / Japan ASTER Science Team, 2000) Ebru A. Gencer Ph.D, Columbia University
    • Megacities
    • Urbanization and Risk
    • Vulnerability and Urban Poverty
    • Urbanization, Urban Poverty and Loss
    • Megacity Istanbul
    • Risk
    • Urbanization and Urban Poverty
    • Vulnerability and Risk Management
    INTRODUCTION International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
    • Natural hazards and world’s most populous cities by 2015: Mega-cities and cities over five million people.
    • (Adapted with courtesy of Munich Re, 2006)
    • Urbanization
    • Large & Megacities
    • Hazards
    • Location
    MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland View slide
  • Urban Vulnerability - Location - Building Materials - Municipal Services - Infrastructure - Land Titles - Social Exclusion - Income Poverty China – Huang He Delta 1979-2000 Satellite Images (Courtesy of UNEP/GRID- Sioux Falls) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland View slide
  • Informal living on the hills of Istanbul (2004) Space reconfigurations in an apartment building Urban Vulnerability - Construction Practices - Control - Corruption - Code Violation - Choice - Disregard MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability (a) a For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for first average is: Mean1=∑x/n b For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for second average is: Mean2= ∑x - (xMax+ xMin)/n – (nMax+ nMin) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Higher Urban Growth Higher Human Losses International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability (b) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Lower Urban Growth Higher Monetary Damages International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability (a) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Higher Urban Poverty Gap Higher Human Losses International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability (b) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Lower Urban Poverty Gap Higher Monetary Damages International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Historic Progression of Earthquakes on North Anatolian Fault (Courtesy of USGS) August 1999 Marmara Earthquake - Fatalities: 18,000 people - Injuries: 50,000 people - Direct and Indirect Economic Loss: $5 to $12 billion (world’s highest relief cost 1992-2003) - Share of affected cities in GDP: 34.7% MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Earthquake Hazard Assessment - M. 7 + earthquake probability: 32 +/- 12 % in 10 years 62 +/- 15 % in 30 years (Parsons et al.2000) - M. 7.5 scenario earthquake predictions: Casualties: 30,000 to 40,000 people Shelter needs: +600,000 households Building damage loss: $12 billion Intensity distribution after a Mw=7.5 Earthquake (Map by Mustafa Erdik et al. 2001) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • The Megacity Istanbul - Population: +10 million – 12.5% of Turkey - Economics: 40 % of Turkey’s industry 75% of real estate and financial institutions 42% of national tax revenues Social and Spatial Inequality in Istanbul Slums in Fener (1995) and a Gated Community in Beykoz (2005) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Istanbul Urban Development 1934 – 1993 Istanbul Population Growth 1927-2000 MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland The Megacity Istanbul - Migration: 500.000/year - Annual growth rate: 3.5% - Informal settlements: 60%
  • Informal settlements in Istanbul (May 2004) Evolution of a squatter 1959-1980 (Study by A. Özsoy 1983) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
    • The Megacity Istanbul
    • - 42.5% Buildings with Legal Permits
    • 37.5% Buildings Pardoned w. Amnesties
    • - 20 % Buildings Illegal Squatters
  • Distribution of Damage after August 17, 1999 Earthquake in Istanbul (Map by Istanbul Governorate Disaster Management Center ) The 1980 approved Istanbul Metropolitan Area Master Plan (Map by Büyük İstanbul Nazım Plan Bürosu). Collapsed 6 story apartment building adjacent to Station AB1 in Avcılar (Courtesy of USGS) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Selected districts in project (Adapted from NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul 1997) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland Istanbul (Total) Kadıköy Zeytinburnu Avcılar Population (2000) Annual Growth Rate Population Density (p/km ²) 10.000.000 ‰ 33 1928 ~ 665.000 ‰ 2 16,625 ~ 245.000 ‰ 40 20,639 ~235.000 ‰ 61 6025 Rank of District GDP (1996) Unemployment Rate Higher Education rate % 12.7 %11 3rd % 6 % 23 6th % 6.8 % 4 14th % 7.4 % 7 % of insurance purchase Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002) %38 % 7.7 %64 %4.16 %31 % 13.22 %49 % 14.08
  • A new residential complex in Kadıköy (2003) Kadıköy “ Even in such a sensitive municipality, we are also a unit under the department of environment. The institutions do not have any law, any actuality about this matter.” M. Bilgin (Disaster Management Project, Kadıköy Municipality) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II
    • - Annual Growth Rate: ‰ 2
    • GDP Rank in Istanbul: 3 rd
    • Unemployment Rate: % 6
    • Higher Education rate: % 23
    • Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): %4.16
    • - Percentage of insurance purchase: %64
    International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Buildings in Zeytinburnu (2003, 2004) Zeytinburnu “ The problem is that the damaged buildings are without construction licences and are at odds with development plans. Out of 15,000 buildings, 2000 of them were built illegally after 1980 amnesty laws. There are an additional 200 buildings that are pardoned by amnesty laws. “ M. Yıldırım (Civil Engineer, Zeytinburnu Municipality) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II
    • - Annual Growth Rate: ‰ 40
    • GDP Rank in Istanbul: 6 th
    • Unemployment Rate: % 6.8
    • Higher Education rate: % 4
    • Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): %13.22
    • - Percentage of insurance purchase: %31
    International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Apartment buildings in Avcılar (2003, 2004) Avcılar “ There is a confusion of authority. Everybody considers the event from their point of view. This view brings distress as well as consumption of time and efforts.“ S. Yalçınkaya (Chief Urban Planner, Avcılar Municipality) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II
    • - Annual Growth Rate: ‰ 61
    • GDP Rank in Istanbul: 14 th
    • Unemployment Rate: % 7.4
    • Higher Education rate: % 7
    • Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): %14.08
    • - Percentage of insurance purchase: %49
    International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Selected districts in project (Adapted from NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul 1997) Photos from districts in study, Zeytinburnu, Kadıköy, Avcılar (2004) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland Istanbul (Total) Kadıköy Zeytinburnu Avcılar Population (2000) Annual Growth Rate Population Density (p/km ²) 10.000.000 ‰ 33 1928 ~ 665.000 ‰ 2 16,625 ~ 245.000 ‰ 40 20,639 ~235.000 ‰ 61 6025 Rank of District GDP (1996) Unemployment Rate Higher Education rate % 12.7 %11 3rd % 6 % 23 6th % 6.8 % 4 14th % 7.4 % 7 % of insurance purchase Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002) %38 % 7.7 %64 %4.16 %31 % 13.22 %49 % 14.08
  • CONCLUSION Urban Poverty (economic and non-economic) + Unsustainable Urbanization and Development (control, code, corruption, construction…) + Substandard Urban Management (complex, chaos, mismanagement, technical and financial resources…) Vulnerability and Risk in Megacities International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  • Ebru A. Gencer Ph.D, Columbia University International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland