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VULNERABILITY  AND  RISK MANAGEMENT  IN  MEGACITIES: THE CASE  OF  ISTANBUL International Disaster and Risk Conference  Ma...
<ul><li>Megacities </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization and Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability and Urban Poverty  </li></ul><u...
<ul><li>Natural hazards and world’s most populous cities by 2015: Mega-cities and cities over five million people.  </li><...
Urban Vulnerability - Location  - Building Materials - Municipal Services - Infrastructure  - Land Titles  - Social Exclus...
Informal living on the hills of Istanbul (2004) Space reconfigurations in an apartment building Urban Vulnerability - Cons...
Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability   (a) a  For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for f...
Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability   (b) MEGACITIES  ISTANBUL Risk  Urban Vulnerability  Analysis I I   Lo...
Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability   (a) MEGACITIES  ISTANBUL Risk   Urban Vulnerability  Analysis I I  Higher U...
Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability   (b) MEGACITIES  ISTANBUL Risk   Urban Vulnerability  Analysis I I  Lower Ur...
Historic Progression of Earthquakes on North Anatolian Fault (Courtesy of USGS)   August 1999 Marmara Earthquake -  Fatali...
Earthquake Hazard Assessment -  M.   7 + earthquake probability: 32 +/- 12 % in 10 years 62 +/- 15 % in 30 years  (Parsons...
The Megacity Istanbul - Population:   +10 million – 12.5% of Turkey - Economics: 40 % of Turkey’s industry  75% of real es...
Istanbul Urban Development 1934 – 1993 Istanbul Population Growth 1927-2000  MEGACITIES  ISTANBUL Risk  Urban Vulnerabilit...
Informal settlements in Istanbul (May 2004) Evolution of a squatter 1959-1980 (Study by A. Özsoy 1983) MEGACITIES  ISTANBU...
Distribution of Damage after August 17, 1999 Earthquake in Istanbul  (Map by  Istanbul Governorate Disaster Management Cen...
Selected districts in project  (Adapted from  NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul  1997) MEGACITIES  ISTANBUL Risk ...
A new residential complex in Kadıköy (2003) Kadıköy  “ Even in such a sensitive municipality, we are  also a unit under th...
Buildings in Zeytinburnu (2003, 2004) Zeytinburnu “ The problem is that the damaged buildings are without construction lic...
Apartment buildings in Avcılar (2003, 2004) Avcılar “ There is a confusion of authority. Everybody considers the event fro...
Selected districts in project  (Adapted from  NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul  1997) Photos from districts in s...
CONCLUSION Urban Poverty   (economic and non-economic) + Unsustainable Urbanization and Development   (control, code, corr...
Ebru A. Gencer Ph.D, Columbia University  International Disaster and Risk Conference  May 30 – June 3, 2010  Davos, Switze...
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Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul

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Vulnerability and Risk Management in Megacities: The Case of Istanbul

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  1. 1. VULNERABILITY AND RISK MANAGEMENT IN MEGACITIES: THE CASE OF ISTANBUL International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, 2002 (NASA / GSFC / MITI / ERSDAC / JAROS, + U.S. / Japan ASTER Science Team, 2000) Ebru A. Gencer Ph.D, Columbia University
  2. 2. <ul><li>Megacities </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization and Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability and Urban Poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization, Urban Poverty and Loss </li></ul><ul><li>Megacity Istanbul </li></ul><ul><li>Risk </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization and Urban Poverty </li></ul><ul><li>Vulnerability and Risk Management </li></ul>INTRODUCTION International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  3. 3. <ul><li>Natural hazards and world’s most populous cities by 2015: Mega-cities and cities over five million people. </li></ul><ul><li>(Adapted with courtesy of Munich Re, 2006) </li></ul><ul><li>Urbanization </li></ul><ul><li>Large & Megacities </li></ul><ul><li>Hazards </li></ul><ul><li>Location </li></ul>MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  4. 4. Urban Vulnerability - Location - Building Materials - Municipal Services - Infrastructure - Land Titles - Social Exclusion - Income Poverty China – Huang He Delta 1979-2000 Satellite Images (Courtesy of UNEP/GRID- Sioux Falls) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  5. 5. Informal living on the hills of Istanbul (2004) Space reconfigurations in an apartment building Urban Vulnerability - Construction Practices - Control - Corruption - Code Violation - Choice - Disregard MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  6. 6. Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability (a) a For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for first average is: Mean1=∑x/n b For this and all following tables, mathematical equation for second average is: Mean2= ∑x - (xMax+ xMin)/n – (nMax+ nMin) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Higher Urban Growth Higher Human Losses International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  7. 7. Urban Population Growth and Disaster Vulnerability (b) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Lower Urban Growth Higher Monetary Damages International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  8. 8. Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability (a) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Higher Urban Poverty Gap Higher Human Losses International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  9. 9. Urban Poverty Gap and Disaster Vulnerability (b) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis I I Lower Urban Poverty Gap Higher Monetary Damages International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  10. 10. Historic Progression of Earthquakes on North Anatolian Fault (Courtesy of USGS) August 1999 Marmara Earthquake - Fatalities: 18,000 people - Injuries: 50,000 people - Direct and Indirect Economic Loss: $5 to $12 billion (world’s highest relief cost 1992-2003) - Share of affected cities in GDP: 34.7% MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  11. 11. Earthquake Hazard Assessment - M. 7 + earthquake probability: 32 +/- 12 % in 10 years 62 +/- 15 % in 30 years (Parsons et al.2000) - M. 7.5 scenario earthquake predictions: Casualties: 30,000 to 40,000 people Shelter needs: +600,000 households Building damage loss: $12 billion Intensity distribution after a Mw=7.5 Earthquake (Map by Mustafa Erdik et al. 2001) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  12. 12. The Megacity Istanbul - Population: +10 million – 12.5% of Turkey - Economics: 40 % of Turkey’s industry 75% of real estate and financial institutions 42% of national tax revenues Social and Spatial Inequality in Istanbul Slums in Fener (1995) and a Gated Community in Beykoz (2005) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  13. 13. Istanbul Urban Development 1934 – 1993 Istanbul Population Growth 1927-2000 MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland The Megacity Istanbul - Migration: 500.000/year - Annual growth rate: 3.5% - Informal settlements: 60%
  14. 14. Informal settlements in Istanbul (May 2004) Evolution of a squatter 1959-1980 (Study by A. Özsoy 1983) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland <ul><li>The Megacity Istanbul </li></ul><ul><li>- 42.5% Buildings with Legal Permits </li></ul><ul><li>37.5% Buildings Pardoned w. Amnesties </li></ul><ul><li>- 20 % Buildings Illegal Squatters </li></ul>
  15. 15. Distribution of Damage after August 17, 1999 Earthquake in Istanbul (Map by Istanbul Governorate Disaster Management Center ) The 1980 approved Istanbul Metropolitan Area Master Plan (Map by Büyük İstanbul Nazım Plan Bürosu). Collapsed 6 story apartment building adjacent to Station AB1 in Avcılar (Courtesy of USGS) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  16. 16. Selected districts in project (Adapted from NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul 1997) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland Istanbul (Total) Kadıköy Zeytinburnu Avcılar Population (2000) Annual Growth Rate Population Density (p/km ²) 10.000.000 ‰ 33 1928 ~ 665.000 ‰ 2 16,625 ~ 245.000 ‰ 40 20,639 ~235.000 ‰ 61 6025 Rank of District GDP (1996) Unemployment Rate Higher Education rate % 12.7 %11 3rd % 6 % 23 6th % 6.8 % 4 14th % 7.4 % 7 % of insurance purchase Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002) %38 % 7.7 %64 %4.16 %31 % 13.22 %49 % 14.08
  17. 17. A new residential complex in Kadıköy (2003) Kadıköy “ Even in such a sensitive municipality, we are also a unit under the department of environment. The institutions do not have any law, any actuality about this matter.” M. Bilgin (Disaster Management Project, Kadıköy Municipality) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II <ul><li>- Annual Growth Rate: ‰ 2 </li></ul><ul><li>GDP Rank in Istanbul: 3 rd </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment Rate: % 6 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Education rate: % 23 </li></ul><ul><li>Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): %4.16 </li></ul><ul><li>- Percentage of insurance purchase: %64 </li></ul>International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  18. 18. Buildings in Zeytinburnu (2003, 2004) Zeytinburnu “ The problem is that the damaged buildings are without construction licences and are at odds with development plans. Out of 15,000 buildings, 2000 of them were built illegally after 1980 amnesty laws. There are an additional 200 buildings that are pardoned by amnesty laws. “ M. Yıldırım (Civil Engineer, Zeytinburnu Municipality) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II <ul><li>- Annual Growth Rate: ‰ 40 </li></ul><ul><li>GDP Rank in Istanbul: 6 th </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment Rate: % 6.8 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Education rate: % 4 </li></ul><ul><li>Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): %13.22 </li></ul><ul><li>- Percentage of insurance purchase: %31 </li></ul>International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  19. 19. Apartment buildings in Avcılar (2003, 2004) Avcılar “ There is a confusion of authority. Everybody considers the event from their point of view. This view brings distress as well as consumption of time and efforts.“ S. Yalçınkaya (Chief Urban Planner, Avcılar Municipality) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II <ul><li>- Annual Growth Rate: ‰ 61 </li></ul><ul><li>GDP Rank in Istanbul: 14 th </li></ul><ul><li>Unemployment Rate: % 7.4 </li></ul><ul><li>Higher Education rate: % 7 </li></ul><ul><li>Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002): %14.08 </li></ul><ul><li>- Percentage of insurance purchase: %49 </li></ul>International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  20. 20. Selected districts in project (Adapted from NEHRP Soil Classification Map for Istanbul 1997) Photos from districts in study, Zeytinburnu, Kadıköy, Avcılar (2004) MEGACITIES ISTANBUL Risk Urban Vulnerability Analysis II International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland Istanbul (Total) Kadıköy Zeytinburnu Avcılar Population (2000) Annual Growth Rate Population Density (p/km ²) 10.000.000 ‰ 33 1928 ~ 665.000 ‰ 2 16,625 ~ 245.000 ‰ 40 20,639 ~235.000 ‰ 61 6025 Rank of District GDP (1996) Unemployment Rate Higher Education rate % 12.7 %11 3rd % 6 % 23 6th % 6.8 % 4 14th % 7.4 % 7 % of insurance purchase Rate of Projected Heavy Damage to Number of Buildings (JICA 2002) %38 % 7.7 %64 %4.16 %31 % 13.22 %49 % 14.08
  21. 21. CONCLUSION Urban Poverty (economic and non-economic) + Unsustainable Urbanization and Development (control, code, corruption, construction…) + Substandard Urban Management (complex, chaos, mismanagement, technical and financial resources…) Vulnerability and Risk in Megacities International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland
  22. 22. Ebru A. Gencer Ph.D, Columbia University International Disaster and Risk Conference May 30 – June 3, 2010 Davos, Switzerland

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