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Food Safety? A Matter of the Supply Chain: Probabilistic Risk Model based on the Agro-Food Trade Network
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Food Safety? A Matter of the Supply Chain: Probabilistic Risk Model based on the Agro-Food Trade Network

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GRF 2nd One Health Summit 2013: Presentation by Matteo Convertino, University of Florida

GRF 2nd One Health Summit 2013: Presentation by Matteo Convertino, University of Florida

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  • We run the model considering any connection that the food can go through. Thus, in general the FSC is a large graph. If we select a country the FSC is a tree
  • Connectivity management at random is just a theoretical experiments, GSI management is smart (!). Length management without any safety consideration is not that good
  • Random placement is like if we don`t know the network …
  • Transcript

    • 1. Food Safety? A Matter of the Supply Chain: Probabilistic Risk Model based on the Agro-Food Trade Network Matteo Convertino, PhD, PEng
    • 2. 1) Food Safety is steadily decreasing  life and economic losses Issues (WHY?) 2) Emerging New Foodborne Pathogens (those causing illnesses that have only recently appeared or been recognised in a population or that are well recognised but are rapidly increasing in incidence or geographic range; ``secret bioterrorism agents’’ included) 3) Increasing Human Mobility, Social Contacts, and Agri-Food Trade (Game is considered in the trade -> e.g. avian infleunza is a potential foodborne commodity disease) 4) Increase in Antibiotic Resistance. A poteriori treatment is not enough. Desire to have a whole control in the food system’s state-space Institute of Medicine, (2012) Convertino et al. (2013), submitted Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 3. Issues (WHY?) 5) High uncertainty (e.g. unreported cases), lack of information (e.g. trade), un-optimized and unregulated dynamics (trade and international public health), and lack of strategies for public health controls based on the sytemic network. Surveillance everywhere is not efficient. 6) Increased Complexity of the Food that brings to multiple Risks (at least 4 countries represented in a food that have 2-6 degrees of separations from the USA) 7) Increase concerns about Counterfeiting and Bioterrorism. A global real-time inspection is not possible 8) Lack of a Quantitative based and Integrated System Design (and Technology for such design) of the Complex Food System. Connection with Food Safety, Water, Biodiversity, Economy, etc. Convertino et al. (2013), submitted Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 4. The case of Salmonella in Eggs from Vietnam Food Safety Supply Chain Salmonella is the most common Norovirus is a growing concern Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 5. CDC data & Painter et al. 2013 Evidence from Data Increase of foodborne outbreaks in time (on average this increase corresponds to an increase in the food supply chain length and complexity) Normalized Outbreaksfood Dependency of the foodborne incidence on the food supply chain Food Safety Supply Chain Incidence Foodborne Outbreaks Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 6. Objectives 1) Identification of a Global Safety Index that consider both local country properties and supply chain properties (related to the country) 2) Development of a Food Supply Chain Network (FSC) model for tracking existing risk sources (paths, sources, food-pathogen-country triples, and their combinations), predicting potential foodborne outbreaks, and minimizing the total public health risk 3) Create a model for establishing the FS backbone network and for making predictions 3) Global sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the FSC model for a quantitative based identification of the most important drivers of pubic health risk, and uncertainty of risk calculations 4) Quantification of the what the Food Modernization Act states as Objectives (we agree on those!) Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 7. Ercsey-Ravasz et al., (2012), PLoS ONE FSC is a sub-graph of the IAFTN. It is a tree for a country and food selected. Rt as a function of lifecycle risks of food and FSC controls kin L Dynamic Bipartite Network Food Supply Chain available from data of GATS and US Food Market Estimator (USDA ERS and US census for USA), FAO (FAOSTAT), UN (ComTrade) Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 8. Example of Cereals Trade The size of circles is related to the trade from the exporting countries to the USA and the blue links are the backbone of the International Agro-Food Trade network Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 9. Path Length: L the length traveled by a selected food commodity on average Network Variables Connectivity (In-degree): kin is defined as the number of incoming links to a node Edge weight: importance of an edge related to the total transport (Betweenness) Centrality: is a measure that rates the importance of the position of a node or an edge in the network with respect to transport through the whole network. mn(i) denotes the number of highest total weighted paths from node m to n that are passing through i, and mn denotes the total number of highest total weighted paths running from node m to n Node Relevance (Salience): the sum of all L divided by the number of connections Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 10. Topological Properties of the Food Supply Chain for the USA Log-normal epdf Exponential epdf Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 11. Topological Properties of the Food Supply Chain for the USA A static assessment is not enough; a dynamical system model that considers both SC and risk factors is needed for: (1) understanding system drivers; (2) surveillance (of system drivers); and (3) optimal management considering driver interaction and importance Ercsey-Ravasz M et al., 2012, PLoS ONE Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 12. Data QALY = Quality Adjusted life-year Just a statistical characterization is not enough but it is necessary for informing the model! Need of a complex systems transdisciplinary approach that assesses the causative factors, their importance and interaction for food safety to prevent foodborne illnesses. SC factors! Batz et al., 2011 (UF and CDC), 2012, EID; Morris et al., 2011 Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 13. Data, and Input Variables 12 food categories (complex food, poultry, eggs, fruits and vegetables, dairy, seafood, beef, pork, other meats, bakery/cereals, game, and beverages), 77 food commodities, and 187 exporting countries to the USA. We considering six degrees of separation from source countries to USA and connectivity from IAFTN (this is a safe assumption) We consider 8 types of complex foods (bread/pasta, cookies, cereals, canned soups, typical first coarse and second coarse meals, ice cream, fast food meals) that are the best selling and riskiest in the USA according to popular rankings UNcom Trade, USDA Global Agricultural Trade System (GATS), and Food-Pathogen Risk from Batz et al. (2012). Other various data complement the characterization of IF. Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 14. Topological Properties & Safety Indices from Rapid Alert System For Food and Feed Nepusz et al. (2009,2012), PLoS ONE Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 15. Model Keywords: Food Life Cycle, Supply Chain Network, Risks Source (Adjacency) Matrix Compositional Food Matrix Food Matrix Food Life Cycle Port of Entry Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 16. Total Health Risk for the USA Ranking of the riskiest food-pathogen-country triples. Monte Carlo filtering allows to assess the combination of food-pathogen-country that contribute the most to selected total risk value ranges Convertino et al. (2013), submitted Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 17. Total Health Risk for each food commodity Disentangling the total health risk for each food commodity by selecting only the respective food commodities paths along the FSC Our ranking is similar (but not the same) of the one of Batz and Morris (2012) Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 18. Model Validation Slope=0.76 R2=0.72 NSC=0.79 We believe that the model underestimates the risks due to the large ignorance/variability of FSC and risk factors; however, the model certainly gives a good assessment of the total health risk for a country considering small scale risks and FSC controls. Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 19. Total Health Risk versus FSC and safety variables A multifactor characterization of the total health risk is necessary. GSI is a good index to characterize countries based on their safety level and on their features along the FSC. The risk is related to some risk factors and FSC variables. Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 20. Driving Factors of the Total Health Risk Global Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analyses – Morris Test, Monte Carlo Simulations & Filtering Saltelli (2004) Supply Food Chain Network Variables Food Pathogen Risks Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 21. Management Strategies of the Total Health Risk 44% decrease of Rt (by keeping countries with GSI higher than 0.25 or higher than 0.50 the risk reduces from 0.43 to 0.24) 53% decrease of Rt (from six to 2-4 degrees of separation) Food Safety Supply Chain 46 % increase of Rt (with removal of countries has been performed randomly by excluding from the importation 25%-50% of the connected countries without any risk consideration Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 22. Management Strategies of the Total Health Risk GSI- and L-based management change the FSC in a small world network that minimizes the risk and likely maximizes the trade Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 23. Rank based on the GSI The hubs in term of trade are not always the Achille’s hell because they have very high SI Countries with high SI but very high L , b, and k are unsafe (e.g. Singapore) Countries with very low SI are unsafe Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 24. Global Management on the FSC Network Because of the strong dependence of the Health Risk on the FSC network we explore the Health Risk as a function of the network topology considering all possible topologies The current FSC for the USA does not minimize the risk The small world FSC network minimizes the Total Health Risk This analysis does not consider Economical and Political Constraints among countries, thus some networks may be unfeasible Convertino et al. (2013), submitted Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 25. Number of Observers for Different Knowledge Level of the Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 26. Needs and What can be done with the FSC model Despite the Need of: - Better assessment of the factors  Needs of Transdisciplinary Connected Research (Engaging Stakeholders); - Track of the information about the intermediate countries along the Agri-Food trade and within the USA (within countries); and, - Verification of the predictability of the model for real foodborne disease outbreaks We have a model for: (i) Potential early identification of emerging incidents (real time traceability) (i) Information about surveillance of critical countries, trades, and supply chain paths (i) Food policy evaluation at any scale, from the international to the town scale (i) FSC for the design of a resilient (random or targeted attack that affect food safety) and sustainable FSC (Environmetally (Water,Biodiversity) – Economically – Socially (Food Security & Quality)). Optimization constrained to economical & political constraints can be performed (i) GSI is a great metric to assess country safety for food Convertino et al. (2013), submitted Food Safety Supply Chain Matteo Convertino, PhD
    • 27. Thanks! Matteo Convertino, PhD, PEng (matteoc@umn.edu)

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