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Earthquake Risk Assessment in a Complex City System in Eminonu, Istanbul
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Earthquake Risk Assessment in a Complex City System in Eminonu, Istanbul

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Atun, Funda …

Atun, Funda
Politecnico di Milano

Published in Technology , Business
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  • 1. This study aims to find the ways to understand and to measure risk by risk assessment process and make it a part of the reality. The basic motivation is to discuss vulnerability issue in the complex city system by considering physical patterns, infrastructural and organizational systems. The scope is to make the invisible risk visible by defining it according to hazards and vulnerabilities existed in the study area. As a final result, it is aimed that to give a general framework about the situation in the Eminonu project area by analyzing the gathered data from various institutions and organizations. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 2. How can risk be assessed and measured in a complex city system? How can the average knowledge taken from this measurement be reliable? Why it is important to make existing risk a part of the reality? Why people should be aware of the severity of risk? Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 3. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 4. Population: 54 518, Building number: 14 419, Building density: 28 building/ha Total area: 508ha, Urbanized area: 365ha, Open areas: 143ha and 409 people for 1ha open area Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 5. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 6. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 7. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 8. How can risk be assessed and measured in complex city systems? Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 9. Model A Model B Model C Model D Length (km) 119 108 174 37 Moment magnitude 7.5 7.4 7.7 6.9 (Mw) Type Strike-slip Strike-slip Strike-slip Normal fault Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 10. Earthquake Total Building Heavily Heavily Heavily + Moderately + Scenario Number + Moderately Partly Model A 1967 / 13.9% 3798 / 26.8% 6902 / 48.8% (7.5MW) 14149 Model C 2156 / 15.2% 4106 / 29% 7279 / 51.4% (7.7MW) Building damage in Eminonu according to the earthquake models A and C (Source: JICA and IMM 2002) Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 11. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 12. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 13. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 14. 1123 buildings 4092 buildings 4674 buildings 2322 buildings 1350 buildings Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 15. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 16. How can we make the average knowledge taken from this measurement more reliable? Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 17. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 18. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 19. Why it is important to make it a part of the reality? Why people should be aware of the severity of risk? Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 20. Risk should not be a fate; it should be taken with a free will. It should be a part of the reality and people should be aware the decision mechanisms while they are deciding to take the present risk or to avoid it. By public communication tool it is possible make them aware about the risk and risk prevention methods. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 21. To summarize, this study aimed at developing an alternative risk assessment methodology which considers the complexity of city systems and at the same time the importance of being flexible to make changes on the sampled data, recognizing the dynamism of cities and changing authorities. Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos
  • 22. How can risk assessment be a part of the mitigation strategies and urban policies? How can risk mitigation strategies and policies be connected with to the ordinary planning system? Funda Atun, PhD candidate at Politecnico di Milano An earthquake risk assessment in Eminonu, Istanbul, 1 June 2010, IDRC Davos