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DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (ADAPTATION) – THE NEEDS FOR HARMONIZATION
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DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (ADAPTATION) – THE NEEDS FOR HARMONIZATION

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  • 1. 1 DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND CLIMATE CHANGE (ADAPTATION) – THE NEEDS FOR HARMONIZATION www.grforum.org CONTACT INFORMATION Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600 Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610 info@grforum.org www.grforum.org Walter J. Ammann President and CEO Global Risk Forum GRF Davos walter.ammann@grforum.org
  • 2. 2 • The link between natural disasters and climate change • Disaster risk reduction and the need to harmonize with climate change adaptation • .....and how to combine disaster risk reduction not only with climate change adaptation but also with climate change mitigation (example combatting land degradation). INTRODUCTION
  • 3. 3 THE 3 PILLARS OF GRF DAVOS RISKPLANET web based networking platform Open and closed circles RISK ACADEMY Think Tank, Knowledge Management Training Courses R&D Public Awareness E-journal (Good practice) IDRC Biennial IDRC Davos Conferences 26 – 30 Aug. 2012 IDRC Regional Conferences and Workshops (China 2011) “From Thoughts to Action – linking practice, science, policy and decision making in the search for sustainable solutions” Davos based foundation
  • 4. 4 • Risk Reduction (preventive measures) • Disaster Management (intervention, recovery) • Risk Governance (integrative risk management) • Risk = Hazard x Vulnerability x Values exposed to hazard • Hazard = frequency (probability), intensity • Climate Change DISASTER RISK REDUCTION DRR AND CC
  • 5. 5 FLOODS WINDSTORMS EARTHQUAKES/ TSUNAMIS DROUGHTS, DESERTIFICATION LANDSLIDES, DEBRIS FLOW WILDFIRES VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS TECHNOLOGICAL HAZARDS GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE TERRORISM LAND DEGRADATION PANDEMICS FINANCIAL CRISES BIOLOGICAL THREATS MULTI HAZARD/ MULTI RISK APPROACH NEEDED IT - Security
  • 6. 6
  • 7. 7
  • 8. 8 HEATWAVE 2003 IN SWITZERLAND • Number of deaths: approx. 1 000 • Economic damage due to a bad harvest: approx. 500 million CHF Source: sc l nat Pro Clim – Forum for Climate and Global Change report Hitzesommer 2003 - Synthesebericht C. Braun-Fahrländer, University of Basel Day/Month Number of deaths per day Europe 2003 35‘000 deaths 10 bn EURO
  • 9. 9 NATURAL DISASTERS: LOSSES Source: Figure and text: Munich Re Topics Geo 2007
  • 10. 10 MEAN ANNUAL LOSSES – NATURAL HAZARDS •100‘000 deaths •150 bn US $ •800 Mio affected Gap between industrialized and developing countries
  • 11. 11 FACTS - CLIMATE JUSTICE Poor countries suffer the vast majority of the impact of natural hazards and thus of the human impact of climate change. Source: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum 2009, Geneva
  • 12. 12 GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND THE MILLENNIUM DEVELOPMENT GOALS MDGS Global Environmental Change Degradation of Ecoysstem  Services Land Degradation Growing Vulnerabilities Large costs for  wealth and  development Undermining  the possibilities  to attain the  MDGs
  • 13. 13 FACTS - CLIMATE JUSTICE Poor countries suffer the vast majority of the impact of natural hazards and thus of the human impact of climate change. Source: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum 2009, Geneva
  • 14. 14 CLIMATE CHANGE - IMPACT Source: Climate Change – The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis, Global Humanitarian Forum 2009, Geneva
  • 15. 15 CLIMATE CHANGE – MOST AFFECTED REGIONS • Africa, Increased water shortages (up to 250 million people in Africa at increased risk of water stress in 2030); • Small Island Developing States, Sea-level rise is likely to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, erosion and other coastal hazards, thus threatening vital infrastructure that supports the socio-economic well-being of island communities. • Asian mega deltas, such as the Ganges- Brahmaputra and the Zhujiang: Large populations and high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding Source: UNFCCC Factsheet: Climate change science - Regions that will be especially affected
  • 16. 16 CLIMATE JUSTICE – FACTS & EXPLANATIONS Source: W. Fust (2009), What will it take? Mitigation of Climate Change, talk at Global Humanitarian Forum, October 2009, Geneva
  • 17. 17 HUNGER - FACTS Source: Food and Agriculture Organisation United Nations: • Over 1 bn people are chronically hungry today—many of them due to climate change. • 94% live in developing nations.
  • 18. 18 Deaths from malaria & dengue fever, diarrhoea, malnutrition, flooding and (OECD countries) heatwaves HEALTH IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 19. 19 Countries scaled according to cumulative emissions in billion tonnes carbon equivalent in 2002. (Patz, Gibbs, et al, 2007) GREEN HOUSE GASES EMISSIONS
  • 20. 20 • Disasters are a problem of the poor and marginalised • Climate Change will worsen the situation • Social injustice - climate justice needed • Disasters are a problem of the poor and marginalised • Climate Change will worsen the situation • Social injustice - climate justice needed
  • 21. 21 ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRATION Source: WBGU 2007 about 1billion people in over 100 countries are at risk
  • 22. 22 ENVIRONMENTALLY INDUCED MIGRANTS? • By 2030: 70 million (IOM 2008) • By 2050: Estimates vary widely, 200 million becoming a widely cited estimate (IOM 2008) • After 2050: Up to 700 million environmental migrants (Christian Aid 2007) • Migration as a need to adapt to climate change
  • 23. 23 • Accellerated urbanisation (coastal areas, 30 Mega Cities in 2020) • Increasing vulnerability (globalisation, information) • Critical infrastructures and services (energy, transportation, IT, etc.) • Shortage in natural resources (water, food, Water scarcity FUTURE CHALLENGES – URBAN RISKS
  • 24. 24 ANNUAL COST DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE (US $) Sector Global Cost Industrialized Countries Developping Countries Agriculture 14 7 7 Water 11 2 9 Health Sector 5 No estimates 5 Coastal Areas 11 7 4 Infrastructure 8 - 130 6 - 88 2 - 41 Total 49 - 171 22 - 105 27 - 66 Quelle: UNFCCC 2007
  • 25. 25 INTEGRATIVE RISK MANAGEMENT – THE NEEDS FOR DRR ALONG THE RISK CIRCLE Integrative (Integral) risk reduction and disaster management = vulnerability reduction and resilience increase RECOVERY INTERVENTION PREVENTION Reconstruction Rehabilitation Insurance Land‐use Planning Technical Measures Ecological Measures Education Training Organisational measures (early warning) Emergency/Crisis Management Education Training Awareness Rising Vulnerability Reduction Resilience Increase
  • 26. 26 • Lack of understanding of the substantial medium and long term benefits of effective risk reduction strategies THE NEEDS FOR RISK REDUCTION (PREVENTION) «The benefits of prevention are not tangible; they are the disasters that did not happen» Kofi Annan, Former UN SG
  • 27. 27 CLIMATE CHANGE: MITIGATION & ADAPTATION • Adaptation focuses on the effects of Climate Change – DRR with identical targets. • Harmonization of the DRR and the CC adaptation policies and practices to prepare for the effects of climate change (similar measures). • Prevention as a need for CC adaptation politically easier to argue than investments for risk reduction • Resources also needed for adaptation (out of CO2 emission trading) not only for mitigation • Mitigation tackles the causes of climate change via the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions/ concentrations
  • 28. 28 Climate Change, Climate variation Desertification, land degradation, drought Continuous degradation of ecosystems Food, water, energy security, conflicts, migration, Natural Hazards DRR, Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Loss in carbon sequestration capacity CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND DEGRADATION
  • 29. 29 SOIL CARBON SEQUESTATION • Soil carbon sequestration is the process of transferring carbon dioxide from the atmosphere into the soil through crop residues and other organic solids, and in a form that is not immediately reemitted. • Soil carbon sequestration can be accomplished by management systems that add high amounts of biomass to the soil, cause minimal soil disturbance, etc. • This transfer of carbon helps off-set emissions from fossil fuel combustion and other carbon-emitting activities. Source: Soil Carbon Sequestration— Fundamentals online at: http://ohioline.osu.edu/aex-fact/pdf/0510.pdf
  • 30. 30 COMBAT LAND DEGRADATION – CC MITIGATION Soil carbon sequestration is an important and immediate sink for removing atmospheric carbon dioxide and mitigating global warming and climate change. Source: UNCCD thematic fact sheet series No. 1 Climate change and desertification
  • 31. 31 Climate Change, Climate variation Desertification, land degradation, drought Continuous degradation of ecosystems Food, water, energy security, conflicts, migration, Natural Hazards DRR, Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Loss in carbon sequestration capacity CLIMATE CHANGE AND LAND DEGRADATION
  • 32. 32 WILD World Initiative to combat Land Degradation DLDD, Climate Change, Risk and Security - An Integrative Approach. A joint campaign and work programme fostering sustainable investments for integrated risk reduction and disaster management in the drylands 30 September 2010 Walter AmmannAVINA‐Stiftung
  • 33. 33 WILD and its context to climate change • The top-soils are among the most efficient carbon sequestration media • Combating land degradation, in particular prevention in eroding top-soils due to meteorological events supports carbon sequestration • WILD therefore – as a combined effort - reduces the vulnerability of ecological systems due to natural hazards (Climate change adaptation) and supports sequestration of CO2 (climate change mitigation). • Resources for mitigation easier available than for adaptation 30 September 2010 Walter AmmannAVINA‐Stiftung
  • 34. 34 • The link between natural disasters and climate change • Disaster risk reduction and the need to harmonize with climate change adaptation • .....and how to combine disaster risk reduction not only with climate change adaptation but also with climate change mitigation (example combatting land degradation). SUMMARY
  • 35. 35 FROM THOUGHTS TO ACTION! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION! CONTACT INFORMATION Global Risk Forum GRF Davos Promenade 35 CH-7270 Davos Phone: +41 (0) 81 414 1600 Fax: +41 (0) 81 414 1610 info@grforum.org www.grforum.org walter.amman@grforum.org