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Disaster risk is a development issue – A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management


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Carlos VILLACIS, Jianping YAN …

Carlos VILLACIS, Jianping YAN


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  • 1. Disaster Risk is a development issue - A development approach to disaster risk assessment and management - Dr. Carlos Villacis and Dr. Jianping Yan UNDP-GRIPGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 2. Today’s agenda Part 1- Managing disaster risk – Issues and challenges Part 2- GRIP’s approach to support countries Part 3- Actual applicationsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 3. What you should take home • Disaster risk is a development issue • We can control the level of risk • All our decisions and plans have to be based on a clear understanding of the problemGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 4. Part 1 Issues & Challenges in DRM/R Why there is no progress in reducing disaster impact on developmentGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 5. Outline • Challenges in Development • Challenges in DRM/R • Some recommendations on what can be doneGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 6. The impact of disasters In 2011, • 332 natural disasters were reported • 30,773 persons were killed • More than 240 million people were affected (~ 19 times Senegal’s population!) • USD 366.1 billion in economic damages (~ 21 times Honduras’ GDP!) Note: These are only major reported events (≥10 killed, ≥100 affected, state of emergency, call for international assistance) Source: Annual Disaster Statistical Review, CRED, 2011Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 7. Impact on development is enormous... 1998 Hurricane Mitch (1998): 80% GDP of Honduras; 49% GDP of Nicaragua 1972 Earthquake in Nicaragua: 42% GDP 1976 Earthquake in El Salvador: 31% GDP 2001 Earthquake in El Salvador: 12% GDP 2010 Earthquake in Haiti: 125% of GDP 2005 Earthquake in Pakistan: 5% GDP 2010 Flood in Pakistan: 10% GDP When are these countries going to develop?Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 8. Small damage, but disastrous impacts 1987 Earthquake - Ecuadorian Oil pipeline Damage to the oil pipe- 60 km Oil pipeline damaged- 6 months no oil exports- 70% National budget lost- 5 year national economic Environmental ImpactrecessionGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 9. Disaster impact is not a point in time/space Development ‘88 ‘90 ‘92 ‘94 ‘96 First priority should be to prevent this from happening - DRM Every activity, including post-disaster recovery, has to be designed and implemented under the long-term development contextGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 10. Crises have long-term, lasting impacts… The Impacts of the 1975 War on Lebanon’s Aviation: - 99 million passengers lost - 50,000 jobs lostGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 11. Recurrent disasters hinder economic growth Projected Growth Real Growth ‘50 ‘60 ‘70 ‘80 ‘90Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 12. Global Distribution of Natural Hazards and PovertyGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 13. What can we learn from Disasters? - 5 Common LessonsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 14. Lesson 1: Risk self-created by poor planning… San Salv ador, 20 01 65% of total number of deaths happened at this siteGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 15. Lesson 2: Still emphasis in emergeny response Rescue team to RADIUS RM Retrofit 4 schools Turkey Plans (9 cities) in Kathmandu Cost $1,5 m $ 2,5 m $ 45,000 time 1 week 2 years 1/2 year Thousand # lives saved 1 s ~ 1,500 (potentially Methodology, Trained masons, ) working techniques, What remains - groups, awareness awareness Protect Impact on development Protect development - process the futureGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 16. Still Emphasis is in Emergency (cont) Mozambique - Floods 2000 • It was known - Rains heavier than normal • Government appeal - $ 2.7 m • International community - $ 400 K Huge human and economic disaster • Response and relief - $ 160 m • Recovery and reconstruction - $ 450 mGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 17. Lesson 3: Unsafe building back • Disaster risk has not been properly addressed by recovery and reconstruction processes and continue re-building pre-disaster risk and generating new riskGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 18. Non properly planned recovery Reconstructing P.A.P or re-creating the problem?Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 19. Lesson 4: International Aid may worsen the problem – Working only with central govts. • Promotes corruption and politicizes post-disaster activities • Does not address local needs properly • Reduces effectiveness From 1991 to 2004 Nicaragua received about US$ 500 million per year in international assistance. However… 80% of public investment is paid by international assistance. Nicaragua’s exports amount to just 30% of the country’s imports. Permanent deficit and increasing debt. Nicaragua remains completely dependent on foreign assistanceGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 20. Lesson 5: Lack of monitoring and evaluation The Mayor of Managua, Dionisio Marenco, advised more than 5 thousand people living by the shores of lake Xolotlán to evacuate their houses because the Municipality has not the capacity to protect their lives when heavy rains happen (Prensa Grafica,2005) 7 yrs after Mitch, there is no way to measure progress in risk reductionGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 21. The Disaster-Development Circle Development Development Poverty How to break the Setback circle? Vulnerability DisasterGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 22. Breaking the Vicious Circle Poverty Development Development Development Planning that Planning that Vulnerability incorporates risk incorporates risk Setback management management DisasterGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 23. Disaster Reduction What we can do to effectively protect development?Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 24. Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (1) • Shift emphasis from disaster preparedness and response to disaster prevention through risk reduction Disasters can and should be reduced in both the number and the extent of impacts • Integrate risk management into public policy and development planning Risk management as an integral part of public policy, urban planning, and development processes • Move from projects to long-term programme Long-term goals providing the necessary financial, legal, political, and social conditionsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 25. Disaster Reduction: What can we do? (2) • Make of technology transfer and capacity building the first priority of cooperation Creation of safer communities is not the responsibility of international organizations but of the local people • Pursue multi-stakeholder engagement Sectors should be the key players in DRM/R. • Measure progress and impacts Mechanisms are needed to periodically monitor progress and evaluate impact of the initiativesGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 26. Part 2 GRIP’s approach to support countriesGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 27. The Issue in DRM/R Understanding of the problem Risk Assessment Proper Planning Evidence-based decision making Disaster Risk Reduction + Safe Development Processes Effective ActionsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 28. Effective Risk Management • Learn from the past (disaster loss information) – Causes, vulnerabilities, response, long-term impacts • Accurately estimate future losses (risk assessment) – Estimate potential losses accurately, make informed decisions • Risk Management – Acceptable risk level – Risk reduction capacity – Risk transfer  Insurance, other ways – Monitoring of changes – Evaluation of strategies  CorrectionsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 29. Why Risk Assessment? • To understand the problem – Size – Characteristics – Distribution – Causes – Feasible solutions  Strategies • To monitor progress – Impact – Efficiency • To evaluate strategies – What is working and what is not? – Necessary correctionsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 30. Role of Risk Assessment Understanding of the problem Risk Assessment Cost/benefit analyses Monitoring Risk assessment Risk assessment Proper Planning Informed decision making Disaster Risk Reduction Effective Actions Evaluation Risk assessmentGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 31. How Risk Assessment should be done • Risk is dynamic and changing over time, due to: – Climate change – Environmental degradation – Urbanization • Risk Assessment is a continuous process – Periodic  Monitoring and evaluation – Sustainable – Multi-stakeholder engagement – Capable of being improved  New information • Not a one-time effort • Done by Local institutions (Capacity development is the only way to guarantee sustainability) • Produces solutions (no numbers or nice-looking reports/maps)Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 32. Summary • Risk management MUST be an integral component of every development decision in order to break the vicious disaster-development circle. • The basis of effective DRM is a clear understanding of the problem and of the effectiveness of the potential solutions based on evidence-based risk assessment. • Risk assessment needs to engage policy/decision makers, stakeholders, and risk analysts throughout its entire process. • Risk assessment is NOT a one-time effort but a continuous process of understanding the risks a country or a society is facing. • Risk assessment has to produce practical, effective solutions. It is not an isolated technical activity to produce reports and maps.Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 33. Global Risk Information Programme (GRIP) - Official Platform for Implementation of HFA’s Priority II -Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 34. DRA at UNDP-GRIP Mission: “Better risk information for sound decision making” Objectives: •To improve the quality of disaster and risk information •To ensure its use in disaster risk management and development planningGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 35. DRA in Countries – Information Needs – Learning from the past: to understand their vulnerabilities, high- affected areas, and recovery capacities, etc. – Basic risk information for setting up DRR baselines: to set up measurable goals and prepare evidence-based DRR strategies – Monitoring and evaluation mechanisms: to measure progress and revise strategies – Local Capacity: To produce realistic and locally supported solutions and ensure sustainabilityGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 36. DRA Solutions Package – Baseline for Risk Assessment (CSA): Assessment of what already exists and identification of gaps and needs – National Disaster Observatories: sustainable institutions for systematic collection, analysis and interpretation of disaster info – National Risk Assessments: multi-hazard risk evaluations to delineate national DRM strategies, policies, programmes, budget allocation – Local Risk Assessments: assessments to support urban risk reduction policies and actions – Capacity Development: all the work is done by local institutions, authorities and expertsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 37. DRA in Countries – A Road Map Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Preparation Assessment Applications National Disaster • National Disaster National DRM/R Observatory Master Plan and Loss Database Strategy National Risk Assessment • Strong National DRM/R System Country Situation National Risk Analysis (CSA) Information System • Pre-Disaster Shelter Plan • Scenario-based Contingency Local Risk Plan Assessment • DRM/R Action PlanGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 38. DRA in Countries: The Total Solution Country Situation Analysis  National e-Library (CSA)  National Disaster National Risk Assessment Observatory (NDO) (NRA)  National Risk Local Risk Assessment Information System (LRA) (NRIS) Disaster Analysis & Mapping (DAM) National workshops Readiness development DRA Programme CERAM = CERAM Establishment Centre of Excellence for Risk Assessment and ManagementGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 39. Assistance provided by UNDP- GRIP • Methodologies and tools • Training • Technical advice: technical, policy making • Coordination and overview • Interaction with other countries • Access to financial supportGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 40. Methodologies and training South Asia - Colombo - March- 2009 - 60 participants - 7 countries • Methodologies • Guidelines • Standards • Training modulesGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 41. Tools: Disaster Risk E-librariesGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 42. Sustainable Capacity for DRA Centers of Excellence for Risk Assessment and Management - CERAMs GRIP CERAM Shanghai Baja California, Mexico UEM, Mozambique NSET, NepalGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 43. Implementation - Support activities 15 aspects of support within the typical UNDP project cycle: • Project conception – Overall vision on DRR based on risk assessment – Preparation of concept notes • Project definition – Scoping workshop – Proposal development – Review and evaluation of technical proposals • Project initiation – Project document finalization – Access to financial support – Interaction with other countries, • Project implementation – coordination and overview – Provision of appropriate methodologies and tools – hands-on trainings – technical support and advice – monitoring and review, • Project closing – result review and evaluation, closing workshop.Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 44. Country Support and Services As of 01/2012Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 45. Part 3 Applications of Risk Assessment • Risk assessment for Climate Change Adaptation • Support to humanitarian activities –Pre-Disaster Shelter PlanningGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 46. Climate change adaptation Arequipa-Peru Dimensions: 15 km: East - West 8 km: North - Sur Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 47. The problem Nevado Coropuna glacier coverage for1955 (outline in black) and2003 (in orange outer boundary).Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 48. Glacial retreat – Nevado Coropuna 140 122.7 120 105.2 96.95 100 2) 80 63.99 56.7 Adaptation 60 m A k a e r ( 40 20 0 1955 1975 1985 1996 2003 Years CoropunaGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 49. Tangible results Incorporation of adaptation in development plans Guidelines for CC adaptation in agricultural poductionGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 50. Concrete measures implemented  3 water and irrigation systems that optimize water usage  15 community silos to store food  5 mini-reservoirsGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 51. Introduction of CCA in education  4 textbooks “Knowing my world to adapt myself to climate change”.  Implementation by Official resolution of climate change in all the public educational institutions (pre-school and elementary school)Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 52. Mainstreaming CCA in daily life - 1 climatolandia board game. - 1 climate ludo game - 3 brochures “The Coropuna and climate change” - Climate change “Takiy Kausaypaq” Songbook - 2 radio stations engaged: Radio Ispacas “The Coropuna time” y Radio Pampacolca (radio spots).Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 53. State strategy for CCAGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 54. Replication in other areas of Peru Estrategias aprobadas 3 Junín, Amazonas y Lambayeque Estrategias en 3 Tumbes y Lima aprobación Estrategias en 5 Arequipa, Ayacucho, Callao, La Libertad y formulación Apurímac, Cusco Estrategias en etapa 4 Loreto, Piura, San Martín y Cajamarca inicialGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 55. THANK YOU! www.gripweb.orgGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 56. Support to humanitarian activities Risk Mapping for Strategic Planning of Shelter Response in Tijuana, Baja California, México. AGREEMENT OF COOPERATION between UNITED NATIONS HUMAN SETTLEMENTS PROGRAMME Antonio Rosquillas and Luis CENTRO DE INVESTIGACIÓN H. AYUNTAMIENTO TIJUANA B.C. Moreno CIENTÍFICA Y DE EDUCACIÓN SUPERIOR DE ENSENADA. Municipio de TijuanaGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 57. 6 possible earthquakes MUNICIPIO DE TIJUANA B.C.Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 58. Damage Evaluation Estimated distribution of buildings damage Color Automatic Range Manual Range ID From To From To a 0 18 0 18 c c b 18 35 18 35 c c c c 35 53 35 53 c c c c c d 53 70 53 70 c d c c c b d d c c c b c c c c c c b a b c a c c c b c c c c c b a a a c c c c b c c d c b c b a a c c c b b c c c d c b a c b b b c c a a c c d d c b a a b c b c b a a b c b c b c b a a b a b a a a a a b c a b b a a a a a a a a a a b a a a a a a a a a a b b a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a b a a a a a a a a a a a a b b a a a b a a a a a a b a b b b a a a a b b a a a b b b b b a a a a a b b b b a a b a a b a a a a a a a a a a a a b b a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a b a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a aGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 59. Results SAB CEN CTO CCO CVE LME PRE OTA PLA TAB Total EQ1 10,000 4,622 8,917 3,282 1,226 5,839 7,276 4,497 6,372 6,246 58,277 EQ2 12,392 4,593 6,853 3,661 3,184 7,012 8,576 3,341 5,335 9,503 64,449 EQ3 3,025 2,792 1,942 2,400 1,360 2,751 8,457 1,266 947 3,648 28,588 EQ4 12,465 10,140 11,085 6,676 1,703 9,942 15,133 7,984 6,019 10,169 91,316 EQ5 4,986 4,504 2,900 4,289 2,581 5,317 16,561 1,993 1,456 6,338 50,925 EQ6 6,411 6,063 5,761 3,581 1,032 4,979 8,437 3,985 3,216 4,979 48,444 Number of persons with shelter needs estimated for the six earthquake scenariosGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 60. Shelter plan uploaded on Google MapGlobal Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,
  • 61. Simulation exercise with all sectors ofsociety 18 – September – 2009Global Risk Identification Programme (GRIP), UNDP,,