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Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases
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Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases

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Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases

Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases

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  • 1. Bockline Omedo Bebe IDRC Davos 2010 Conference, 30 May - 03 June Vulnerability Assessment of Livestock Production Systems to Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADS)
  • 2. Climate-related Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADS) in Eastern Africa Region <ul><li>Pestes des Petits des Ruminants (PPR) </li></ul><ul><li>Rift Valley Fever (RFV) </li></ul><ul><li>East Coast Fever (ECF) </li></ul><ul><li>Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD) </li></ul><ul><li>Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) </li></ul><ul><li>Contagious Caprine Pleuropneumonia (CCPP) </li></ul><ul><li>New Castle Disease (NCD) </li></ul>
  • 3. <ul><li>ILRI mapping identified three hotspots ecosystems of climate change </li></ul><ul><li>Arid and semi arid lands </li></ul><ul><li>Great lakes basin </li></ul><ul><li>Coastal lowlands </li></ul>Hotspots of outbreaks of climate-related TADs in Eastern Africa region TADS are already occurring more frequently with adverse impacts on livestock assets of the poor
  • 4. Pastoral Livestock Production Systems in Arid and semi lands S mallholder Dairy Production Systems In Lake basin and coastal lowlands
  • 5. The three hotspots ecosystems support the most important livestock systems of the poor <ul><li>Pastoral systems </li></ul><ul><li>In Arid and semi arid lands and Coastal ecosystems </li></ul><ul><li>Smallholder mixed crop-dairy systems </li></ul><ul><li>in the Great Lakes and Coastal ecosystems </li></ul>
  • 6. Climate change induced Severity of Outbreaks of TADs… <ul><li>Geographical shift in infectious diseases </li></ul><ul><li>Shifts in distribution of vector borne diseases </li></ul><ul><li>Creation of ecological niches favouring entry, establishment and the speed of spread of TADS </li></ul><ul><li>Rapid multiplication with the transboundary movement of people, livestock and animal products </li></ul>
  • 7. <ul><li>Changes in rainfall distribution and intensity </li></ul><ul><li>Changes in relative humidity and precipitation </li></ul><ul><li>Increased flooding events </li></ul><ul><li>Frequent drought </li></ul><ul><li>Intense rainfall </li></ul><ul><li>Intense windstorm </li></ul>Climate change elements fuelling the outbreaks of Climate-related TADS
  • 8. Containing TADS outbreaks important <ul><li>Vulnerability = Impacts x Adaptability </li></ul><ul><li>Assess vulnerability and prioritise options for management adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>Risk management approach framework assessment of vulnerability </li></ul>
  • 9. <ul><li>Vulnerability </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Exposure to &amp; sensitivity to TADS hazards </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Exposure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Magnitude, character &amp; rate of climate change in given eco-system </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Sensitivity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dependency on livestock assets &amp; what is needed to produce sustainably/stability </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Adaptive capacity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Ability to adjust / cope with impacts of CC &amp; / or take advantage of opportunities that arise </li></ul></ul>V = Impacts x Adaptability
  • 10. Exposure to CC hazards Sensitivity to CC hazards <ul><li>Potential Impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Adverse implications </li></ul><ul><li>Potential for benefits </li></ul>Adaptive capacity to CC Vulnerability susceptibility &amp; inability to cope with climate changes Vulnerability = Impacts x Adaptability
  • 11. Vulnerability assessment framework… Criterion Pastoral systems Smallholder dairy systems Exposure PPR, RVF, CCPP, CBPP, FMD RVF, FMD, ECF Sensitivity <ul><li>Utilization of Indigenous breeds </li></ul><ul><li>High dependency on livestock assets </li></ul><ul><li>Utilization of Dairy genotypes </li></ul><ul><li>Integration with crops and off-farm livelihoods </li></ul>Adaptive capacity <ul><li>High capacity in autonomous adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>Low capacity in planned adaptation </li></ul><ul><li>Moderate to low capacity in autonomous and planned adaptation </li></ul>
  • 12. <ul><li>Direct impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Livestock and human Mortality </li></ul><ul><li>Lowered livestock productivity </li></ul><ul><li>Lowered quality and value of products </li></ul><ul><li>Indirect impacts </li></ul><ul><li>Trade barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Stringent and costly sanitary and phytosanitary requirements </li></ul><ul><li>Food scarcity and rise in prices </li></ul>Insecurity in livestock assets Food and Nutrition, Income and Wealth, Health <ul><li>National and Regional Economy </li></ul><ul><li>Insecurity in Food and income </li></ul><ul><li>Insecurity in livestock and human health </li></ul><ul><li>Imposed trade barriers </li></ul><ul><li>Rise in cost of health service delivery </li></ul>Impacts of outbreaks of climate-related TADs
  • 13. Vulnerability framework index Vulnerability criterion High Vulnerability Low Vulnerability Exposure to climate change and variability high low Low High Sensitivity of livestock production system high High Low High Adaptive capacity of livestock production system low Low High Low Adverse social and economic implications of outbreak of climate-related TADS high High Low Low Potential to benefit from management intervention high high low Low Priority planned adaptation measures high low
  • 14. Challenges in implementing vulnerability assessment for climate related TADS <ul><li>Appropriate knowledge, skills and technology and policies are available for containing impacts of climate-related TADs outbreak </li></ul><ul><li>But the extent of projected outbreaks of climate-related TADs is huge!! </li></ul><ul><li>Will require additional new knowledge, skills and technology and policies if to achieve reduction in vulnerability to TADs outbreaks </li></ul>
  • 15. Challenges in informative and valuable assessment of vulnerability to TADS... <ul><li>Quality data for estimation and implementing risk management approach framework </li></ul><ul><li>Development of robustly adaptable decision support models </li></ul><ul><li>Inter state administrative formalities and reporting inadequacies!! </li></ul>
  • 16. Current approaches <ul><li>Participatory approaches </li></ul><ul><li>Field expert and stakeholder qualitative judgement </li></ul><ul><li>Modelling climate scenarios – Australian application of DYMEX and CLIMEX for biologists </li></ul><ul><li>GIS applications </li></ul>
  • 17. Effective containment of TADS is important for securing these livestock assets of the poor Thank you for thinking about the poor livestock keepers
  • 18. Thank you for listening

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