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5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice 24-28 August 2014 in Davos, Switzerland

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  • 1. An urban design framework for tsunami evacuation safety: a case study of two 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Chilean cities Jorge León (PhD Candidate 2011-2014) / Associate Professor Alan March / University of Melbourne / Australia
  • 2. Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. Valparaíso, Chile. 11th of March 2010. Source: YouTube. Antofagasta, Chile. 19th of August 2011. Source: La Estrella de Antofagasta. Iquique, Chile. 16th of March 2014. Source: El Mercurio.
  • 3. background methodology outcomes discussion Disaster resilience, cities, and urban morphology • The predominant location of actual and potential disasters has shifted to urban areas (Brown, 2012, Wamsler, 2014). • Urban planning can improve a city’s resilience to disasters, via its ability to spatially integrate multi-dimensional aspects affecting disaster risk reduction (Burby, 1998). • It has been difficult to translate this aim into practice (March and León, 2013, Wamsler, 2014). • Limited research on the links between resilience and the design of urban form. Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. • Few studies on understanding the role of urban morphology during disaster’s response phases (Allan et al., 2013). 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. • This is especially critical in the case of a near-field tsunami, whose first waves could arrive between to the coast 20 to 25 minutes after an earthquake.
  • 4. background methodology outcomes discussion Tsunami risk reduction in coastal communities • Efforts have been concentrated in three main areas (Eisner, 2005, Shuto, 2005, Murata et al., 2010): 1) Large civil-engineered countermeasures (e.g. breakwaters, seawalls, sea gates) 2) Urban land use and built environment (e.g. identification of inundation areas, relocation of dwellings and key activities, improved building codes, etc.) Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. 3) Emergency readiness (forecast and warning systems, evacuation preparedness, evacuation simulation, etc.) Involve considerable technical and economic resources, have not been widely applied Require long-term changes, not typically addressing population-focussed tsunami-response activities The urban realm is usually approached as a relatively fixed context. ? What is the role of urban morphology in achieving more effective and safer pedestrian evacuations during near-field tsunamis? In case of a tsunami, evacuation “is the most important and effective method to save human lives” (Shuto, 2005: 8)
  • 5. background methodology outcomes discussion Case studies: Iquique and Talcahuano, Chile Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. IQUIQUE TALCAHUANO 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. Source: John Nelson, IDV Solutions (2012) Source: Google Earth (2014)
  • 6. background methodology outcomes discussion Phases of the study Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters.
  • 7. background methodology outcomes discussion Existing conditions Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Miyagi prefecture, Japan. 11th of March 2011. Source: Reuters. Micro-scale (evacuees’ experience) Macro-scale (urban configuration) Weighted overlay analysis of current evacuation vulnerability, developed in ArcGIS Agent-based evacuation model of Iquique, developed in Agent Analyst Meeting with members of local community and emergency stakeholders, Talcahuano Survey of an identified priority evacuation route, Talcahuano
  • 8. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org background methodology outcomes discussion Intervention: macro-scale (urban configuration) Synthesis of proposed interventions for Iquique and Talcahuano
  • 9. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org background methodology outcomes discussion Intervention: micro-scale (evacuees’ experience)
  • 10. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org background methodology outcomes discussion Analysis Configuration analysis of proposed interventions (Network Analyst) Agent-based analysis of proposed interventions (Agent Analyst)
  • 11. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org background methodology outcomes discussion Tsunami and evacuation critical issues 1. Long recurrence between devastating events • Makes difficult to define a risk context according to previous experiences (e.g. lack of reliable archives). • Hinders long-term risk reduction efforts (e.g. by diminishing public and political awareness). • Makes difficult to maintain a ready-to-function state across emergency response and relief institutions. 2. Great earthquakes as factors of discontinuity • Great earthquakes (i.e. M8.0 or higher) have the potential to trigger ‘cascading consequences’ and ‘sequential failures’ (Alesch and Siembieda, 2012) throughout the urban systems. • Essential services (e.g. electricity, communication, etc.) are commonly interrupted, hindering both the authorities and population’s responses to the emergency. 3. Location inertia • Tsunami-vulnerable urban locations are the historical outcome of interrelated socio-economic (e.g. city foundation policies) and geophysical conditions (e.g. availability of plain land). Coastal locations are especially appealing (NTHMP, 2001). • Relocation has been proved a difficult process especially in developing contexts, due to the existing social ecologies, economic bonds, and the common informal re-occupation of the newly vacant land (Mehrotra, 2014).
  • 12. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org background methodology outcomes discussion Tsunami and evacuation critical issues 4. The influence of urban morphology characteristics • Three basic groups of elements determine the role of urban morphology during tsunami evacuations: street pattern arrangements (e.g. orthogonal vs. hierarchical grids), built environment quality (e.g. formal vs. informal areas), and existing notorious natural or manmade features (e.g. for assembly or wayfinding purposes). 5. Socio-cultural traits • Tsunami awareness across the population might have steep differences, delaying or making difficult proper responses. • Several cultural threats might hinder the evacuation process: incorrect preconceptions, lack of information and guidance from institutions, incorrect behaviours (e.g. delayed evacuation, use of car, wrong selection of routes, lack of family evacuation plans, etc.), and antisocial behaviours (e.g. looting).
  • 13. Urban design principles for tsunami evacuation: 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org background methodology outcomes discussion What is the role of urban morphology in achieving more effective and safer pedestrian evacuations during near-field tsunamis? 1. Closeness • Reduce to the greatest possible extent the average distance between the evacuees’ locations and the safe assembly areas, by shortening evacuation routes or by creating new safe spots. 2. Rapidity • Allow a fast and fluid movement of evacuees throughout all the routes, by increasing the availability of pedestrian space, by guaranteeing proper built environment’s qualities, and by a careful placement of all the elements that might cause blockages (e.g. urban furniture). 3. Safety • Ensure sufficient pedestrian space to prevent reduced speeds or stagnation. • Built environment should avoid every element susceptible of serious earthquake damage (e.g. facades, hanging billboards) and include especially-designed elements (e.g. urban furniture without sharp edges). • Provide clear separations between vehicular and pedestrian traffics.
  • 14. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org background methodology outcomes discussion 4. Redundancy • Increase the number of all the elements belonging to the evacuation network: priority routes, safe assembly areas, access points to these areas, etc. • Duplicate all the critical bottlenecks susceptible of earthquake damage, such as bridges and pedestrian runways. 5. Plausibility • Mainstream the proposed recommendations into daily planning practice (Wamsler 2014), contributing to bridge the gap between the cultures of normalcy and the state of exception (Beck, 2009). • The main aim of design suggestions should be the provision of liveable public spaces, designed with the highest possible built standards, capable of being enjoyed by the population especially during non-emergency times. 6. Autonomy • Enhance the capacity of the urban environment to support evacuees’ responses in absence of official guidance, by increasing physical continuity and wayfinding characteristics of evacuation routes. 7. Memory • Use the persistence of the built environment to support long-term maintenance of a tsunami culture among the population. • Create urban places aimed at remembering past disasters (e.g. memorials, parks). • Use toponymy to identify urban features with their role during a possible emergency.
  • 15. Added value for the Post 2015 Framework for 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Disaster Risk Reduction • How did your work support the implementation of the Hyogo Framework for Action: – Our research draws into the three strategic goals of the Hyogo Framework for Action. – We showed how urban designers and planners can use and adapt existing risk knowledge sets into urban morphology changes, for sustainable city development policies. – We aim at strengthening institutional resilience to hazards, by providing support and quantitative leverage to planners and city officials when arguing for required changes in urban form. – We suggest urban morphology changes as a systematic tool for improving tsunami emergency preparedness and response, by contributing to bridge the gap between ‘normal’ and ‘emergency’ times in the city (Beck, 2008). • From your perspective what are the main gaps, needs and further steps to be addressed in the Post 2015 Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in – Research: enhance efforts to understand the role of urban morphology in DRR. – Education & Training: mainstream DRR across the different levels of urban form-related disciplines. – Implementation & Practice: alongside with strategic urban planning, unleash the potential of ‘retrofitting’ planning to increase resilience to disasters. – Policy: strengthen the role of planners in governmental DRR policies (in a context where more than 50% of the world population lives in cities).
  • 16. 5th International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2014 ‘Integrative Risk Management - The role of science, technology & practice‘ • 24-28 August 2014 • Davos • Switzerland www.grforum.org Thank you.