Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) – parameters and criteria for the development of a CI priority list on national level

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Fekete, Dr. Alexander Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Germany

Fekete, Dr. Alexander Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Germany

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  • The result of the assessment is the SIFVI. It combines SS, ID and exposure to flods as shown on the previous slides. The components of suscept are multiplied with the exposure %, so the dark red areas show counties with a relative high aggregated value of SV as compared to all examined counties along the two rivers, Elbe and RhineDresden and the ruhr area are highlighted as especialy vulnerable areas, since the population density is high, but also at the same time exposure, and values of social susceptibility. . This index shows however only a relative picture of hot spots not absolute values of SV.
  • The result of the assessment is the SIFVI. It combines SS, ID and exposure to flods as shown on the previous slides. The components of suscept are multiplied with the exposure %, so the dark red areas show counties with a relative high aggregated value of SV as compared to all examined counties along the two rivers, Elbe and RhineDresden and the ruhr area are highlighted as especialy vulnerable areas, since the population density is high, but also at the same time exposure, and values of social susceptibility. . This index shows however only a relative picture of hot spots not absolute values of SV.
  • Stromausfall Europa 04.11.2006

Transcript

  • 1. Dr. Alexander Fekete Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level SUN 2.1 + 2.5 (ID 666) International Disaster and Risk Conference, IDRC Davos 2010
  • 2.
    • University of Würzburg
    • Multiple hazard and risk assessment
    • Contents:
    • Landslide and Earthquake
    • Landuse
    • Infrastructure
    • Method: GIS, Remote Sensing
    Background 1: Multiple Risks
  • 3.
    • UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY – Institute for Environment and Human Security
    • Social and Infrastructure Flood Vulnerability Index
    • Composed of:
    • Social Susceptibility / Capacities
    • Infrastructure density
    • Exposure to floods
    • Method: Statistics, GIS
    • Data: Census data of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany, Statistical extreme event scenarios of river-flood areas
    Background 2: Social Vulnerability
  • 4. Project
    • Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany 2009 - 2012
    • Development of protection levels
    • A concept for criticality assessment
    • Criticality criteria
    Deliverables Mid-term goal
    • Identification of infrastructures critical for society
    • Assessment of impacts due to outages
    Content
  • 5.
    • Golvin 2006
    http://www.wottreng.ch/hieroglyphen.jpg
  • 6.
    • Harris 2003
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mt_Vesuvius_79_AD_eruption_3.svg
  • 7. Critical for You
    • http://www.flughafen-zuerich.ch/desktopdefault.aspx
    • http://www.panoramio.com/photo/24524356
    • http://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/cms_media/module_bi/2159/1079690_0_org_46935752_gallery.jpg
  • 8. Inter- Dependencies
    • http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-events.html
    • spiegel.de
    • pixelio.de
  • 9.
    • Criticality is revealed in case of a failure, when services and resources are suddenly not available anymore.
  • 10. Critical Mass
    • First nuclear reactor in Germany: Haigerloch 1945
    Fekete 2010
  • 11. Terminology
    • Source: http://www.visualthesaurus.com/ 10. Nov. 2009
  • 12. CIP - definition Critical infrastructures (CI) include organizations and systems that have a major importance for the society and that, if disrupted, would comprehensively affect supply chains , public safety and could lead to further dramatic consequences.
  • 13.
    • Do you have Questions?
  • 14. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)
    • http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html
    Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
  • 15. Pre-Analysis What is the problem? Who is the enduser of this analysis? Which infrastructures are of interest? What is the target group that is analysed? Which is the smallest research unit of interest? Which data is necessary / already there? Step 1 Problem framing
  • 16. Interest scopes Scale of the disaster National Personal One company
    • Decide on
    • Impact type:
    • Human (Casualties, livelihoods, …)
    • Economic
    • Symbolic
  • 17. Infrastructure components
    • Infrastructure consists of components
    • visible
    • non visible
    • Example: Power Supply
    • Physical
    • Power poles
    • Transmission lines
    • etc.
    • Functional
    • Organisational processes
    • Laws
    • Quality
    • Human
    • Staff
    • Repair teams
    Fekete 2002 Iran Step 2 Infrastructure components
  • 18. "Choke points"
    • Maritime Security, GAO-Bericht, 2007
    • maps.google.de
  • 19. Virtual CI priority list
    • Country " Virtualania"
    Capitol City Davooos City CI priority list - 2 major roads
  • 20. The Davos Congress Centre
    • http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-center.html
    • http://sherwoodsf.wordpress.com/2008/01/28/heads-up-collaborative-solutions-from-davos/
    • http://www.idrc.info/photo-singleview.php?imaGe=FB08252008_6_2
    Criticality factor: timing
  • 21. Quality & Trust Logan Abassi UNDP Global. Haitian_national_palace_earthquake. Wikipedia.jpg Fekete 2001
  • 22. Virtual CI priority list
    • Country " Virtualania"
    Capitol City Davooos City
    • CI priority list
    • 2 major roads
    • 1 Parliament
    • Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year
    • Water quality
  • 23. 3 Criticality Criteria (3CC)
    • Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society?
    • When does something become critical?
    • 3 Criticality Criteria
    • Critical amount*
    • Critical timing**
    • Critical quality
    *Amount or % of services, assets, population affected) **Speed of onset, duration of outage, Mean Time To Functionality
  • 24.
    • Do you have Questions?
  • 25. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)
    • http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html
    Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
  • 26. Simplified criticality analysis Systeminterne Kritikalität Trigger Event Society Kritikalität für die Gesellschaft Infrastructure Other Infrastr. Relevant Hazard
  • 27. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
  • 28. Selection of the scale of analysis
    • Source: IEA 2007: Oil Supply Security
    Fekete 2001
    • Technical resilience
    • The "4R"
    • Redundancy
    • Robustness
    • Resources
    • Rapidity
    • Lit. Tierney & Bruneau 2007
    • Community resilience
    • The "4E"
    • Engagement,
    • Education
    • Empowerment
    • Encouragement.
    • Lit. Edwards 2009
  • 29. Identification of CI
    • The "4R of Resilience"
    • Redundancy
    • Robustness
    • Resources
    • Rapidity
    Power stations and power grid in South Africa (source: http://www.ises.org/sepconew/Pages/CountryCaseStudySA/2.html Robust Element? Single Element? Resources to rapidly replace the functional ability? Lit.: Tierney and Bruneau 2007 Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg
  • 30. Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City
    • Country "Virtualania" CI priority list
    • 2 major roads
    • 1 Parliament
    • Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year
    • Water quality
    • 2 Transmission lines
    • 3 Power connections with other countries
  • 31. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
  • 32. Interdependencies http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf Blackout
  • 33. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
  • 34. Impact level: population
    • Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg
    http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/destination/stadiums/stadium=5007759/index.html
  • 35. Cascading effects 04.11.2006 2006: intentional switch-off leads to dynamic instability Communication error UCTE - Net UCTE = Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity) Quelle: UCTE (Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity)
  • 36. Application: Vulcanic ash cloud 2010
    • Source: International Herald Tribune 21.Apr.2010
    What if – the eruption would have lasted 13 months? (as it did from 1821 to 1823) Analysis Step Criticality criteria 3 Impact levels 3a Initial infrastructure 29 % of international air traffic, 4 days 3b Dependent infrastructures Industry, medical transport, … 3c Affected population 1,2 Mio. passengers, per day
  • 37.
    • Do you have Questions?
  • 38. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)
    • http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html
    Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
  • 39. Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City
    • Country "Virtualania" CI priority list
    • 2 major roads
    • 1 Parliament
    • Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year
    • Water quality
    • 2 Transmission lines
    • 3 Power connections with other countries
  • 40. Limitations of using rare components
    • Single Point of Failure (SPOF)
    Golvin 2006: Light house in Alexandria, 1st century b.c. http://www.lindauer-fly.ch/Home%20Seite/Tower%20Zurich.jpg http://media.sms.at/uploads/pics/icon_rot_handy_02.png http://www.iconarchive.com/show/glaze-icons-by-mart/laptop-icon.htm http://www.educate.ece.govt.nz/sitecore/content/F4S/Home/Challenge/F4SToolkit/~/media/F4S/Images/Artbox09/WaterBottle.jpgl11
    • Mass Item Infrastructure
    • Decentralised
    • Many redundancies
    • Interlinked
  • 41. Limitations of a simplified analysis Main Road to Mamfe, SouthWest Cameroon Pictures courtesy of Achim Richards 2008, DED Corruption Dependence of trade and supply Hospital in 300km Rain season
  • 42. Limits of mono-causality
    • "Real disasters"
    • Combination of small failures (Lovins & Lovins 1983)
    • Example: Blackout 2003 US
    • Surprise effect
    • Example: Levee effect (White 1945)
  • 43. Dimensions of inter-dependencies Lit. on interdependencies: Rinaldi et al. 2001, Rose 2007, MSB 2009 Infrastructure components Dependent components Multiple Impact Reaction Hazards Value for multiple hazards? Value for dependency? Impacted component Value for impacts? Affected population Research questions Initial impacts Impacts via infrastructure(s) Value for dependencies? Other infrastructures Fig. Fekete 2010
  • 44. Priorities by time
    • Normal case
    • Immediate dependency (15 minutes) highest on:
      • Emergency response
      • Health care
      • Electricity
      • ICT
    • Disaster case
    • Immediate dependency (15 minutes) highest on:
      • Emergency response
      • Health care
      • Electricity
      • ICT
      • Water
      • Stability of buildings
      • Media
      • Transport
  • 45. Hierarchy of needs
    • Hierarchy of needs, Maslow (1943)
    • Inter-dependencies
    • Priorities of society
    • Timing
    1 Immediate survival needs Air, Water and Food Health care Search and Rescue Buildings 2 Additional survival needs Energy Information Transport 3 Immediate Security Administration / Police 4 Financial Security Finance, Insurance, Economy 5 Culture Science Cultural heritage
  • 46. Protection goals
    • Global warming: 2°C
    • Sea-level rise: x meters
    • "Sustainability" (Brundtland 1987)
    • "Living with risk"
    Abstract societal goals Climate Change scenarios
    • "The loss of public telecommunication services in a region could last for up to five days." (Direct.gov.uk 2009 Loss of utilities and communications in an emergency)
    UK infrastructure scenarios
  • 47. Protection goals
    • Rule of thumb for a disaster (Broemme, THW):
    • "4 days, 10% of the population of a region"
    • Possible ways to identify thresholds:
    • Capacities (hours of emergency power, up to 100.000 customers, affected persons...)
    • Tolerance (Zero mortality, not more than X days, up to x Bio.€, …)
    • Calculations (damage X expected for 5 days every 10 years)
  • 48. 3 different protection goal formulations "We need to prevent outages longer than X days for Y % of our services" "We need to have capabilities to cope with outages longer than X days for Y % of our services" "We need to be able to tolerate outages longer than X days for Y % of the population" Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels: Hypothetical protection goals 3a Initial infrastructure Critical number Critical timing Critical quality 3b Dependent infrastructures Critical number Critical timing Critical quality 3c Affected population Critical number Critical timing Critical quality
  • 49. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)
    • http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html
    Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
  • 50. CIP goals of the Federal Office (BBK) Download : http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/DE/2009/kritis_englisch.html?nn=110428 Strategy Analysis
    • All-Hazard
    • All-Infrastructures
    • Interdisciplinary
    Cooperation / Participation Cross-sectoral Federal States / Municipalities Private Sector Science International Guiding policy concept
  • 51. Limits of protection
    • Full protection against all threats and cascading effects is not possible
    • -> Priorisation of measures is necessary
    • Suggested Reading:
    • Apostolakis & Lemon 2005 A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism
    • Boin & McConnell 2007 Preparing for Critical Infrastructure Breakdowns. The Limits of CrisisManagement and the Need for Resilience
  • 52. Basic & special resilience
    • Baseline Protection
    Cooperation
    • Special Protection
    • Recent Projects at BBK:
    • Electricity (GRASB)
    • Gas & Oil (KritisGM)
    • Bridges and tunnels (SKRIBT)
    Special guidelines: Hospitals, …
  • 53. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)
    • http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html
    Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
  • 54. Communication CI Publications:
    • General guidelines
    • Specific guidelines (for companies, hospitals, search & rescue teams…)
    Academy:
    • Seminars: application of the guidelines
    • Inhouse Training Courses
    Exercise:
    • Nation-wide (LÜKEX)
    http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf Cooperation
  • 55. Limits of communication
    • Sensitivity of data
  • 56. Summary - What is special about CI research?
    • Only indirect impacts of service interruptions
    • Cascading effects = different sources of impact
    • External effects
  • 57. Infrastructure components
    • Infrastructure consists of components
    • visible
    • non visible
    • Example: Power Supply
    • Physical
    • Power poles
    • Transmission lines
    • etc.
    • Functional
    • Organisational processes
    • Laws
    • Quality
    • Human
    • Staff
    • Repair teams
    Fekete 2002 Iran Step 2 Infrastructure components
  • 58. Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City
    • Country "Virtualania" CI priority list
    • 2 major roads
    • 1 Parliament
    • Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year
    • Water quality
    • 2 Transmission lines
    • 3 Power connections with other countries
  • 59. 3 criticality criteria
    • Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society?
    • 3 Criticality Criteria
    • Critical number
    • Critical timing*
    • Critical quality
    *(speed of onset, duration of outage, Mean Time To Functionality) Fekete 2010
  • 60. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
  • 61. Open questions
    • Need for research on:
    • Threshold of criticality
    • Interdependencies
    • Societal priorities of needs
    • Protection goals as a societal process
    • Capabilities of infrastructures (emergency response and other)
    • Error tolerance of society
  • 62.
    • Thank you for your attention
    • CI research activities at BBK:
    • Project KritisKAT (concept, criteria, all-CI)
    • Project KritisGM (gas- and oil)
    • Project GRASB (electricity)
    • Project SKRIBT (tunnels- and bridges).
    Contact: Dr. Alexander Fekete Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance Section II.4 National Hazard Register; CIP Concepts Provinzialstraße 93 53127 Bonn Phone: 0228 99 550 3401 Email: Alexander.Fekete@bbk.bund.de
  • 63. Suggested Literature
    • Critical Infrastructure Protection in Switzerland: http://www.bevoelkerungsschutz.admin.ch/internet/bs/en/home/themen/ski.html
    • Tierney, Kathleen; Bruneau, Michel (2007). Conceptualizing and Measuring Resilience. A Key to Disaster Loss Reduction, TR News 250, 14-17
    • Rinaldi, Steven M.; Peerenboom, James P.; Kelly, Terrence K. (2001). Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine , Dec. 2001:11-25
    • Rose, Adam (2007). Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions, Environmental Hazards 7 (2007) 383–398