Dr. Alexander Fekete   Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany Criticality analysis of C...
<ul><li>University of Würzburg </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple hazard and risk assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Contents: </li></ul...
<ul><li>UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY – Institute for Environment and Human Security </li></ul><ul><li>Social and Infrastructu...
Project  <ul><li>Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany  2009 - 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>...
<ul><li>Golvin 2006 </li></ul>http://www.wottreng.ch/hieroglyphen.jpg
<ul><li>Harris 2003 </li></ul>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mt_Vesuvius_79_AD_eruption_3.svg
Critical for You <ul><li>http://www.flughafen-zuerich.ch/desktopdefault.aspx </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.panoramio.com/ph...
Inter- Dependencies  <ul><li>http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-events.html </li></ul><ul><li>...
<ul><li>Criticality is revealed in case of a failure, when services and resources are suddenly not available anymore.  </l...
Critical Mass <ul><li>First nuclear reactor in Germany: Haigerloch 1945 </li></ul>Fekete 2010
Terminology <ul><li>Source: http://www.visualthesaurus.com/ 10. Nov. 2009 </li></ul>
CIP - definition Critical infrastructures (CI)  include organizations and systems that have a  major importance for the so...
<ul><li>Do you have Questions? </li></ul>
International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)  <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li>...
Pre-Analysis What is the problem? Who is the enduser of this analysis? Which infrastructures are of interest? What is the ...
Interest scopes Scale of the disaster National Personal One company <ul><li>Decide on </li></ul><ul><li>Impact type: </li>...
Infrastructure components <ul><li>Infrastructure consists of components </li></ul><ul><li>visible </li></ul><ul><li>non vi...
&quot;Choke points&quot; <ul><li>Maritime Security, GAO-Bericht, 2007   </li></ul><ul><li>maps.google.de </li></ul>
Virtual CI priority list <ul><li>Country &quot; Virtualania&quot; </li></ul>Capitol City Davooos City CI priority list - 2...
The Davos Congress Centre <ul><li>http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-center.html </li></ul><ul...
Quality & Trust Logan Abassi UNDP Global. Haitian_national_palace_earthquake. Wikipedia.jpg Fekete 2001
Virtual CI priority list <ul><li>Country &quot; Virtualania&quot; </li></ul>Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>CI priority ...
3 Criticality Criteria (3CC) <ul><li>Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society?   </l...
<ul><li>Do you have Questions? </li></ul>
International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)  <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li>...
Simplified criticality analysis Systeminterne Kritikalität Trigger Event Society Kritikalität für die Gesellschaft Infrast...
The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework  Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels  3a Critical amount Critical...
Selection of the scale of analysis <ul><li>Source: IEA 2007: Oil Supply Security </li></ul>Fekete 2001 <ul><li>Technical r...
Identification of CI <ul><li>The &quot;4R of Resilience&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Redundancy </li></ul><ul><li>Robustness </...
Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>Country &quot;Virtualania&quot; CI priority list </li></ul><ul>...
The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework  Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels  3a Critical amount Critical...
Interdependencies http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_...
The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework  Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels  3a Critical amount Critical...
Impact level: population <ul><li>Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg   </li></ul>http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/destination/s...
Cascading effects 04.11.2006 2006: intentional switch-off leads to dynamic instability Communication error  UCTE - Net UCT...
Application: Vulcanic ash cloud 2010  <ul><li>Source: International Herald Tribune 21.Apr.2010 </li></ul>What if – the eru...
<ul><li>Do you have Questions? </li></ul>
International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)  <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li>...
Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>Country &quot;Virtualania&quot; CI priority list </li></ul><ul>...
Limitations of using rare components <ul><li>Single Point of Failure (SPOF) </li></ul>Golvin 2006: Light house in Alexandr...
Limitations of a simplified analysis Main Road to Mamfe, SouthWest Cameroon Pictures courtesy of Achim Richards 2008, DED ...
Limits of mono-causality <ul><li>&quot;Real disasters&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Combination of small failures (Lovins &  Lov...
Dimensions of inter-dependencies Lit. on interdependencies: Rinaldi et al. 2001, Rose 2007, MSB 2009 Infrastructure compon...
Priorities by time <ul><li>Normal case </li></ul><ul><li>Immediate dependency (15 minutes) highest on:  </li></ul><ul><ul>...
Hierarchy of needs <ul><li>Hierarchy of needs, Maslow (1943) </li></ul><ul><li>Inter-dependencies  </li></ul><ul><li>Prior...
Protection goals <ul><li>Global warming: 2°C </li></ul><ul><li>Sea-level rise: x meters </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Sustainabi...
Protection goals <ul><li>Rule of thumb for a disaster (Broemme, THW):  </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;4 days, 10% of the populati...
3 different protection goal formulations  &quot;We need to  prevent  outages longer than X days for Y % of our services&qu...
International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)  <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li>...
CIP goals of the Federal Office (BBK)   Download : http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/DE/2009/krit...
Limits of protection <ul><li>Full protection against all threats and cascading effects is not possible </li></ul><ul><li>-...
Basic & special resilience  <ul><li>Baseline Protection </li></ul>Cooperation  <ul><li>Special Protection </li></ul><ul><l...
International Risk Governance Council (IRGC)  <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li>...
Communication CI Publications:  <ul><li>General guidelines </li></ul><ul><li>Specific guidelines (for companies, hospitals...
Limits of communication <ul><li>Sensitivity of data </li></ul>
Summary - What is special about CI research? <ul><li>Only indirect impacts of service interruptions </li></ul><ul><li>Casc...
Infrastructure components <ul><li>Infrastructure consists of components </li></ul><ul><li>visible </li></ul><ul><li>non vi...
Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>Country &quot;Virtualania&quot; CI priority list </li></ul><ul>...
3 criticality criteria <ul><li>Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society?   </li></ul...
The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework  Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels  3a Critical amount Critical...
Open questions <ul><li>Need for research on:  </li></ul><ul><li>Threshold of criticality </li></ul><ul><li>Interdependenci...
<ul><li>Thank you for your attention  </li></ul><ul><li>CI research activities at BBK: </li></ul><ul><li>Project KritisKAT...
Suggested Literature <ul><li>Critical Infrastructure Protection in Switzerland: http://www.bevoelkerungsschutz.admin.ch/in...
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Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) – parameters and criteria for the development of a CI priority list on national level

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Fekete, Dr. Alexander Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Germany

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  • The result of the assessment is the SIFVI. It combines SS, ID and exposure to flods as shown on the previous slides. The components of suscept are multiplied with the exposure %, so the dark red areas show counties with a relative high aggregated value of SV as compared to all examined counties along the two rivers, Elbe and RhineDresden and the ruhr area are highlighted as especialy vulnerable areas, since the population density is high, but also at the same time exposure, and values of social susceptibility. . This index shows however only a relative picture of hot spots not absolute values of SV.
  • The result of the assessment is the SIFVI. It combines SS, ID and exposure to flods as shown on the previous slides. The components of suscept are multiplied with the exposure %, so the dark red areas show counties with a relative high aggregated value of SV as compared to all examined counties along the two rivers, Elbe and RhineDresden and the ruhr area are highlighted as especialy vulnerable areas, since the population density is high, but also at the same time exposure, and values of social susceptibility. . This index shows however only a relative picture of hot spots not absolute values of SV.
  • Stromausfall Europa 04.11.2006
  • Transcript of "Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) – parameters and criteria for the development of a CI priority list on national level"

    1. 1. Dr. Alexander Fekete Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level SUN 2.1 + 2.5 (ID 666) International Disaster and Risk Conference, IDRC Davos 2010
    2. 2. <ul><li>University of Würzburg </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple hazard and risk assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Contents: </li></ul><ul><li>Landslide and Earthquake </li></ul><ul><li>Landuse </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Method: GIS, Remote Sensing </li></ul>Background 1: Multiple Risks
    3. 3. <ul><li>UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY – Institute for Environment and Human Security </li></ul><ul><li>Social and Infrastructure Flood Vulnerability Index </li></ul><ul><li>Composed of: </li></ul><ul><li>Social Susceptibility / Capacities </li></ul><ul><li>Infrastructure density </li></ul><ul><li>Exposure to floods </li></ul><ul><li>Method: Statistics, GIS </li></ul><ul><li>Data: Census data of the Federal Statistical Office in Germany, Statistical extreme event scenarios of river-flood areas </li></ul>Background 2: Social Vulnerability
    4. 4. Project <ul><li>Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, Bonn, Germany 2009 - 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Development of protection levels </li></ul><ul><li>A concept for criticality assessment </li></ul><ul><li>Criticality criteria </li></ul>Deliverables Mid-term goal <ul><li>Identification of infrastructures critical for society </li></ul><ul><li>Assessment of impacts due to outages </li></ul>Content
    5. 5. <ul><li>Golvin 2006 </li></ul>http://www.wottreng.ch/hieroglyphen.jpg
    6. 6. <ul><li>Harris 2003 </li></ul>http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Mt_Vesuvius_79_AD_eruption_3.svg
    7. 7. Critical for You <ul><li>http://www.flughafen-zuerich.ch/desktopdefault.aspx </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.panoramio.com/photo/24524356 </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.augsburger-allgemeine.de/cms_media/module_bi/2159/1079690_0_org_46935752_gallery.jpg </li></ul>
    8. 8. Inter- Dependencies <ul><li>http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-events.html </li></ul><ul><li>spiegel.de </li></ul><ul><li>pixelio.de </li></ul>
    9. 9. <ul><li>Criticality is revealed in case of a failure, when services and resources are suddenly not available anymore. </li></ul>
    10. 10. Critical Mass <ul><li>First nuclear reactor in Germany: Haigerloch 1945 </li></ul>Fekete 2010
    11. 11. Terminology <ul><li>Source: http://www.visualthesaurus.com/ 10. Nov. 2009 </li></ul>
    12. 12. CIP - definition Critical infrastructures (CI) include organizations and systems that have a major importance for the society and that, if disrupted, would comprehensively affect supply chains , public safety and could lead to further dramatic consequences.
    13. 13. <ul><li>Do you have Questions? </li></ul>
    14. 14. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li></ul>Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
    15. 15. Pre-Analysis What is the problem? Who is the enduser of this analysis? Which infrastructures are of interest? What is the target group that is analysed? Which is the smallest research unit of interest? Which data is necessary / already there? Step 1 Problem framing
    16. 16. Interest scopes Scale of the disaster National Personal One company <ul><li>Decide on </li></ul><ul><li>Impact type: </li></ul><ul><li>Human (Casualties, livelihoods, …) </li></ul><ul><li>Economic </li></ul><ul><li>Symbolic </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>
    17. 17. Infrastructure components <ul><li>Infrastructure consists of components </li></ul><ul><li>visible </li></ul><ul><li>non visible </li></ul><ul><li>Example: Power Supply </li></ul><ul><li>Physical </li></ul><ul><li>Power poles </li></ul><ul><li>Transmission lines </li></ul><ul><li>etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Functional </li></ul><ul><li>Organisational processes </li></ul><ul><li>Laws </li></ul><ul><li>Quality </li></ul><ul><li>Human </li></ul><ul><li>Staff </li></ul><ul><li>Repair teams </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>Fekete 2002 Iran Step 2 Infrastructure components
    18. 18. &quot;Choke points&quot; <ul><li>Maritime Security, GAO-Bericht, 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>maps.google.de </li></ul>
    19. 19. Virtual CI priority list <ul><li>Country &quot; Virtualania&quot; </li></ul>Capitol City Davooos City CI priority list - 2 major roads
    20. 20. The Davos Congress Centre <ul><li>http://www.davos.ch/en/summer/business/davos-congress/congress-center.html </li></ul><ul><li>http://sherwoodsf.wordpress.com/2008/01/28/heads-up-collaborative-solutions-from-davos/ </li></ul><ul><li>http://www.idrc.info/photo-singleview.php?imaGe=FB08252008_6_2 </li></ul>Criticality factor: timing
    21. 21. Quality & Trust Logan Abassi UNDP Global. Haitian_national_palace_earthquake. Wikipedia.jpg Fekete 2001
    22. 22. Virtual CI priority list <ul><li>Country &quot; Virtualania&quot; </li></ul>Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>CI priority list </li></ul><ul><li>2 major roads </li></ul><ul><li>1 Parliament </li></ul><ul><li>Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year </li></ul><ul><li>Water quality </li></ul>
    23. 23. 3 Criticality Criteria (3CC) <ul><li>Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society? </li></ul><ul><li>When does something become critical? </li></ul><ul><li>3 Criticality Criteria </li></ul><ul><li>Critical amount* </li></ul><ul><li>Critical timing** </li></ul><ul><li>Critical quality </li></ul>*Amount or % of services, assets, population affected) **Speed of onset, duration of outage, Mean Time To Functionality
    24. 24. <ul><li>Do you have Questions? </li></ul>
    25. 25. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li></ul>Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
    26. 26. Simplified criticality analysis Systeminterne Kritikalität Trigger Event Society Kritikalität für die Gesellschaft Infrastructure Other Infrastr. Relevant Hazard
    27. 27. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
    28. 28. Selection of the scale of analysis <ul><li>Source: IEA 2007: Oil Supply Security </li></ul>Fekete 2001 <ul><li>Technical resilience </li></ul><ul><li>The &quot;4R&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Redundancy </li></ul><ul><li>Robustness </li></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Rapidity </li></ul><ul><li>Lit. Tierney & Bruneau 2007 </li></ul><ul><li>Community resilience </li></ul><ul><li>The &quot;4E&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Engagement, </li></ul><ul><li>Education </li></ul><ul><li>Empowerment </li></ul><ul><li>Encouragement. </li></ul><ul><li>Lit. Edwards 2009 </li></ul>
    29. 29. Identification of CI <ul><li>The &quot;4R of Resilience&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Redundancy </li></ul><ul><li>Robustness </li></ul><ul><li>Resources </li></ul><ul><li>Rapidity </li></ul>Power stations and power grid in South Africa (source: http://www.ises.org/sepconew/Pages/CountryCaseStudySA/2.html Robust Element? Single Element? Resources to rapidly replace the functional ability? Lit.: Tierney and Bruneau 2007 Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg
    30. 30. Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>Country &quot;Virtualania&quot; CI priority list </li></ul><ul><li>2 major roads </li></ul><ul><li>1 Parliament </li></ul><ul><li>Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year </li></ul><ul><li>Water quality </li></ul><ul><li>2 Transmission lines </li></ul><ul><li>3 Power connections with other countries </li></ul>
    31. 31. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
    32. 32. Interdependencies http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf Blackout
    33. 33. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
    34. 34. Impact level: population <ul><li>Soccer City Stadium - Johannesburg </li></ul>http://www.fifa.com/worldcup/destination/stadiums/stadium=5007759/index.html
    35. 35. Cascading effects 04.11.2006 2006: intentional switch-off leads to dynamic instability Communication error UCTE - Net UCTE = Union for the Co-ordination of Transmission of Electricity) Quelle: UCTE (Union for the Coordination of Transmission of Electricity)
    36. 36. Application: Vulcanic ash cloud 2010 <ul><li>Source: International Herald Tribune 21.Apr.2010 </li></ul>What if – the eruption would have lasted 13 months? (as it did from 1821 to 1823) Analysis Step Criticality criteria 3 Impact levels 3a Initial infrastructure 29 % of international air traffic, 4 days 3b Dependent infrastructures Industry, medical transport, … 3c Affected population 1,2 Mio. passengers, per day
    37. 37. <ul><li>Do you have Questions? </li></ul>
    38. 38. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li></ul>Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
    39. 39. Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>Country &quot;Virtualania&quot; CI priority list </li></ul><ul><li>2 major roads </li></ul><ul><li>1 Parliament </li></ul><ul><li>Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year </li></ul><ul><li>Water quality </li></ul><ul><li>2 Transmission lines </li></ul><ul><li>3 Power connections with other countries </li></ul>
    40. 40. Limitations of using rare components <ul><li>Single Point of Failure (SPOF) </li></ul>Golvin 2006: Light house in Alexandria, 1st century b.c. http://www.lindauer-fly.ch/Home%20Seite/Tower%20Zurich.jpg http://media.sms.at/uploads/pics/icon_rot_handy_02.png http://www.iconarchive.com/show/glaze-icons-by-mart/laptop-icon.htm http://www.educate.ece.govt.nz/sitecore/content/F4S/Home/Challenge/F4SToolkit/~/media/F4S/Images/Artbox09/WaterBottle.jpgl11 <ul><li>Mass Item Infrastructure </li></ul><ul><li>Decentralised </li></ul><ul><li>Many redundancies </li></ul><ul><li>Interlinked </li></ul>
    41. 41. Limitations of a simplified analysis Main Road to Mamfe, SouthWest Cameroon Pictures courtesy of Achim Richards 2008, DED Corruption Dependence of trade and supply Hospital in 300km Rain season
    42. 42. Limits of mono-causality <ul><li>&quot;Real disasters&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Combination of small failures (Lovins & Lovins 1983) </li></ul><ul><li>Example: Blackout 2003 US </li></ul><ul><li>Surprise effect </li></ul><ul><li>Example: Levee effect (White 1945) </li></ul>
    43. 43. Dimensions of inter-dependencies Lit. on interdependencies: Rinaldi et al. 2001, Rose 2007, MSB 2009 Infrastructure components Dependent components Multiple Impact Reaction Hazards Value for multiple hazards? Value for dependency? Impacted component Value for impacts? Affected population Research questions Initial impacts Impacts via infrastructure(s) Value for dependencies? Other infrastructures Fig. Fekete 2010
    44. 44. Priorities by time <ul><li>Normal case </li></ul><ul><li>Immediate dependency (15 minutes) highest on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergency response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health care </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ICT </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Disaster case </li></ul><ul><li>Immediate dependency (15 minutes) highest on: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Emergency response </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Health care </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Electricity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>ICT </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Water </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Stability of buildings </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Media </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Transport </li></ul></ul>
    45. 45. Hierarchy of needs <ul><li>Hierarchy of needs, Maslow (1943) </li></ul><ul><li>Inter-dependencies </li></ul><ul><li>Priorities of society </li></ul><ul><li>Timing </li></ul>1 Immediate survival needs Air, Water and Food Health care Search and Rescue Buildings 2 Additional survival needs Energy Information Transport 3 Immediate Security Administration / Police 4 Financial Security Finance, Insurance, Economy 5 Culture Science Cultural heritage
    46. 46. Protection goals <ul><li>Global warming: 2°C </li></ul><ul><li>Sea-level rise: x meters </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Sustainability&quot; (Brundtland 1987) </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;Living with risk&quot; </li></ul>Abstract societal goals Climate Change scenarios <ul><li>&quot;The loss of public telecommunication services in a region could last for up to five days.&quot; (Direct.gov.uk 2009 Loss of utilities and communications in an emergency) </li></ul>UK infrastructure scenarios
    47. 47. Protection goals <ul><li>Rule of thumb for a disaster (Broemme, THW): </li></ul><ul><li>&quot;4 days, 10% of the population of a region&quot; </li></ul><ul><li>Possible ways to identify thresholds: </li></ul><ul><li>Capacities (hours of emergency power, up to 100.000 customers, affected persons...) </li></ul><ul><li>Tolerance (Zero mortality, not more than X days, up to x Bio.€, …) </li></ul><ul><li>Calculations (damage X expected for 5 days every 10 years) </li></ul>
    48. 48. 3 different protection goal formulations &quot;We need to prevent outages longer than X days for Y % of our services&quot; &quot;We need to have capabilities to cope with outages longer than X days for Y % of our services&quot; &quot;We need to be able to tolerate outages longer than X days for Y % of the population&quot; Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels: Hypothetical protection goals 3a Initial infrastructure Critical number Critical timing Critical quality 3b Dependent infrastructures Critical number Critical timing Critical quality 3c Affected population Critical number Critical timing Critical quality
    49. 49. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li></ul>Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
    50. 50. CIP goals of the Federal Office (BBK) Download : http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/Broschueren/DE/2009/kritis_englisch.html?nn=110428 Strategy Analysis <ul><li>All-Hazard </li></ul><ul><li>All-Infrastructures </li></ul><ul><li>Interdisciplinary </li></ul>Cooperation / Participation Cross-sectoral Federal States / Municipalities Private Sector Science International Guiding policy concept
    51. 51. Limits of protection <ul><li>Full protection against all threats and cascading effects is not possible </li></ul><ul><li>-> Priorisation of measures is necessary </li></ul><ul><li>Suggested Reading: </li></ul><ul><li>Apostolakis & Lemon 2005 A Screening Methodology for the Identification and Ranking of Infrastructure Vulnerabilities Due to Terrorism </li></ul><ul><li>Boin & McConnell 2007 Preparing for Critical Infrastructure Breakdowns. The Limits of CrisisManagement and the Need for Resilience </li></ul>
    52. 52. Basic & special resilience <ul><li>Baseline Protection </li></ul>Cooperation <ul><li>Special Protection </li></ul><ul><li>Recent Projects at BBK: </li></ul><ul><li>Electricity (GRASB) </li></ul><ul><li>Gas & Oil (KritisGM) </li></ul><ul><li>Bridges and tunnels (SKRIBT) </li></ul>Special guidelines: Hospitals, …
    53. 53. International Risk Governance Council (IRGC) <ul><li>http://www.irgc.org/The-IRGC-risk-governance-framework,82.html </li></ul>Criticality Analysis CI Priorities Evaluation Management Goals Problem Framing
    54. 54. Communication CI Publications: <ul><li>General guidelines </li></ul><ul><li>Specific guidelines (for companies, hospitals, search & rescue teams…) </li></ul>Academy: <ul><li>Seminars: application of the guidelines </li></ul><ul><li>Inhouse Training Courses </li></ul>Exercise: <ul><li>Nation-wide (LÜKEX) </li></ul>http://www.bmi.bund.de/cae/servlet/contentblob/131086/publicationFile/13133/Leitfaden_Schutz_kritischer_Infrastrukturen_en.pdf Cooperation
    55. 55. Limits of communication <ul><li>Sensitivity of data </li></ul>
    56. 56. Summary - What is special about CI research? <ul><li>Only indirect impacts of service interruptions </li></ul><ul><li>Cascading effects = different sources of impact </li></ul><ul><li>External effects </li></ul>
    57. 57. Infrastructure components <ul><li>Infrastructure consists of components </li></ul><ul><li>visible </li></ul><ul><li>non visible </li></ul><ul><li>Example: Power Supply </li></ul><ul><li>Physical </li></ul><ul><li>Power poles </li></ul><ul><li>Transmission lines </li></ul><ul><li>etc. </li></ul><ul><li>Functional </li></ul><ul><li>Organisational processes </li></ul><ul><li>Laws </li></ul><ul><li>Quality </li></ul><ul><li>Human </li></ul><ul><li>Staff </li></ul><ul><li>Repair teams </li></ul><ul><li>… </li></ul>Fekete 2002 Iran Step 2 Infrastructure components
    58. 58. Virtual CI priority list Capitol City Davooos City <ul><li>Country &quot;Virtualania&quot; CI priority list </li></ul><ul><li>2 major roads </li></ul><ul><li>1 Parliament </li></ul><ul><li>Davoos city (international conferences 2 times a year </li></ul><ul><li>Water quality </li></ul><ul><li>2 Transmission lines </li></ul><ul><li>3 Power connections with other countries </li></ul>
    59. 59. 3 criticality criteria <ul><li>Which criteria have infrastructures in common that make them vital for society? </li></ul><ul><li>3 Criticality Criteria </li></ul><ul><li>Critical number </li></ul><ul><li>Critical timing* </li></ul><ul><li>Critical quality </li></ul>*(speed of onset, duration of outage, Mean Time To Functionality) Fekete 2010
    60. 60. The 3 Impact levels (3Il) framework Analysis Step Criticality criteria (3CC) 3 Impact levels 3a Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3b Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality 3c Critical amount Critical timing Critical quality
    61. 61. Open questions <ul><li>Need for research on: </li></ul><ul><li>Threshold of criticality </li></ul><ul><li>Interdependencies </li></ul><ul><li>Societal priorities of needs </li></ul><ul><li>Protection goals as a societal process </li></ul><ul><li>Capabilities of infrastructures (emergency response and other) </li></ul><ul><li>Error tolerance of society </li></ul>
    62. 62. <ul><li>Thank you for your attention </li></ul><ul><li>CI research activities at BBK: </li></ul><ul><li>Project KritisKAT (concept, criteria, all-CI) </li></ul><ul><li>Project KritisGM (gas- and oil) </li></ul><ul><li>Project GRASB (electricity) </li></ul><ul><li>Project SKRIBT (tunnels- and bridges). </li></ul>Contact: Dr. Alexander Fekete Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance Section II.4 National Hazard Register; CIP Concepts Provinzialstraße 93 53127 Bonn Phone: 0228 99 550 3401 Email: Alexander.Fekete@bbk.bund.de
    63. 63. Suggested Literature <ul><li>Critical Infrastructure Protection in Switzerland: http://www.bevoelkerungsschutz.admin.ch/internet/bs/en/home/themen/ski.html </li></ul><ul><li>Tierney, Kathleen; Bruneau, Michel (2007). Conceptualizing and Measuring Resilience. A Key to Disaster Loss Reduction, TR News 250, 14-17 </li></ul><ul><li>Rinaldi, Steven M.; Peerenboom, James P.; Kelly, Terrence K. (2001). Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine , Dec. 2001:11-25 </li></ul><ul><li>Rose, Adam (2007). Economic resilience to natural and man-made disasters: Multidisciplinary origins and contextual dimensions, Environmental Hazards 7 (2007) 383–398 </li></ul>

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