Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision support

1,210 views
1,051 views

Published on

Thomas MÜNZBERG1, Tina COMES2, Frank SCHULTMANN2

11Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Nuclear and Power Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of; 2Karlsruhe Institute for Technology, Institute for Industrial Production, Karlsruhe, Germany, Federal Republic of

Published in: Education, Technology, Business
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,210
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
45
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
0
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Critical infrastructure disruptions: a generic system dynamic approach for decision support

  1. 1. Critical Infrastructure Disruptions: A Holistic SystemDynamic Approach for Decision SupportChallenges in critical infrastructure disruption management and decision supportopportunities via a holistic system dynamic approachInstitute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies Thomas MünzbergInstitute for Industrial Production Tina Comes, Frank SchultmannKIT – University of the State of Baden-Wuerttemberg andNational Research Center of the Helmholtz Association www.kit.edu
  2. 2. Outline 1. Characteristics of Critical Infrastructure (CI) Disruptions 2. Introduction to System Dynamic 3. System Dynamic Application CI System Dynamic Model CI System Dynamic Impact Matrix CI System Dynamic Impact Diagramm 4. Conclusion and Outlook2 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  3. 3. Characteristics of Critical Infrastructure Disruptions Definition of Critical Infrastructure (German approach): “Organizations and institutions of special importance for the country and its people where failure or functional impairment would lead to severe supply bottlenecks, significant disturbance of public order or other dramatic consequences” Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2009 Sectors of Critical Infrastructures Media Food culture Transport Energy and traffic Critical Water Infrastructures Health Information technology Government and Finance and and telecommuncations public administration insurance industry Federal Office for Information Security, Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance , 20113 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  4. 4. Characteristics of Critical Infrastructure Disruptions Trigger Event CI Network Stakeholder/ Affected Elements Resilience Criticality CI Sector‘s Vulnerability CI Sector Stakeholder/ Element‘s Resilience = Resilience Resilience Exposure Vulnerability Stakehholder/ Exposure Element Emergency Management Authorities Rinaldi, Peerenboom, Kelly (2001), Fekete (2010) Analysis approaches for Critical Infrastructure Protection Deductive approach Inductive approach What kind of events What are the lead to critical (e.g. consequences of (e.g. infrastructure Vulnerability Analysis critical infrastructure Impact Analysis disruptions? Threat Analysis) disruptions? Criticality Analysis)4 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  5. 5. Characteristics of Critical Infrastructure Disruptions Challenges in CI Disruption Management System complexity Multiple actors of private and public sector – multi-agency response to risks Interdependencies of CIs Uncertainty Lacks in data quality Limited Resources Systematic risks Lack of system understanding Need for a systems thinking approach for decision support5 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  6. 6. Introduction to System Dynamic System Dynamic Method Method for analysing system’s complexity and dynamic behaviour that change over time Dynamic model with links and feedback/causal loops Results: long term impacts and prognosis via simulation System Dynamic Approach Problem Qualitative Quantitative Simulation Definition Model Modelling Application for the Management of CI Disruptions Aim: Provide decision makers a system dynamic understanding of how disruption propagates and may cascades through the CI system6 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  7. 7. System Dynamic Application System Dynamic Approach for CI Disruption Management7 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  8. 8. CI System Dynamic Model Generic Performance Assumption of a generic performance allows to understand and to measure how a town depends on each single CI sector8 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  9. 9. System Dynamic Impact Matrix Influence matrix (example) Impact Matrix - Dynamic influences and importance of sectors - System and dynamic understanding9 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  10. 10. System Dynamic Impact Diagramm (example) Impact Diagramm - Dynamic impact visualization - Time framed analysis10 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  11. 11. Conclusion and Outlook Disruption management : challenging task for decision makers System Dynamic for - insights in system effects - system behaviour understanding over time visualization of dynamic evolution of CI disruption impacts Further Research - validation by sensitivity analysis and expert workshops - integration of real data of local interdependencies and impacts - integration of counter measures for further simulation11 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  12. 12. Thank you for your attention! Baden Baden/Germany May 2013 10th International Conference on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management TOPIC Holistic Crisis Management of Thomas Münzberg M.Sc. Disasters Affecting Critical thomas.muenzberg@kit.edu Infrastructures Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies (IKET) Institute for Industrial Production (IIP) http://iscram2013.org/ This research was supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We would like to thank the BMBF as well as the project consortium of SECURITY2People and our associate project partners for their insightful contribution and their dedicated support.12 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production
  13. 13. Reference list and suggested literature Federal Ministry of the Interior, 2009: National Strategy for the Protection of Critical Infrastructure (KRITIS-Strategie). Available at http://www.bmi.bund.de/SharedDocs/DE/Themen/Sicherheit/SicherheitAllgemein/kritis.html (last accessed on 14 June 2012). Federal Office for Information Security, Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, 2011:Definition of Critical Infrastructures. Available at http://www.kritis.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/Kritis/EN/neue_Sektoreneinteilung_engl..pdf?__blob=publicationFile (last accessed on 14 June 2012). Fekete, A., 2010: Criticality analysis of Critical Infrastructures (CI) Development of a CI priority list on national level. – International Disaster and Risk Conference (IDRC), 30 May - 03 June 2010, Davos, Switzerland. Rinaldi, Steven M.; Peerenboom, James P.; Kelly, Terrence K. 2001: Identifying, Understanding, and Analyzing Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies, IEEE Control Systems Magazine, December 2001:11-25. Used Software for Modeling and Simulation System Dynamic: Consideo Modeller : http://www.consideo-modeler.de/.13 28.08.2012 Münzberg, Th.; Comes, T.; Schultmann, F. Institute for Nuclear and Energy Technologies 4th IDRC Davos 2012 Institute for Industrial Production

×