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Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland
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Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland

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Niels HOLTHAUSEN1, Pamela KÖLLNER-HECK2, Michael BRÜNDL3, Peter LOCHER1, Marco PÜTZ4, Sabine PERCH-NIELSEN1, Lilian BLASER1, Thomas PROBST2, Roland HOHMANN2 ...

Niels HOLTHAUSEN1, Pamela KÖLLNER-HECK2, Michael BRÜNDL3, Peter LOCHER1, Marco PÜTZ4, Sabine PERCH-NIELSEN1, Lilian BLASER1, Thomas PROBST2, Roland HOHMANN2

1Ernst Basler + Partner, Switzerland; 2Federal Office for the Environment, Switzerland; 3WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, Switzerland; 4Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Switzerland

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Climate change risk analysis as a basis for a national climate change adaptation strategy in Switzerland Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionClimate change risk analysis as a basis for anational climate change adaptation strategyin SwitzerlandIDRC Davos 2012, 28 August 2012Niels Holthausen, Pamela Köllner-Heck, Michael Bründl, Peter Locher, Marco Pütz, SabinePerch-Nielsen, Lilian Blaser, Thomas Probst, Roland HohmannErnst Basler + Partner, Federal Office for the Environment FOEN,WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF,Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL
  • 2. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate Division Motivation (FOEN) Besides the most urgently needed reduction of greenhouse gas emissions → mitigation, we need to adapt in the best possible way to the impacts of climate change → adaptation. National Adaptation Strategy shall enable the departments to coordinate climate change adaptation actions on Federal level An assessment of climate related risks and opportunities shall identify the most important fields of actions whithin the National Adaptation Strategy Objectives (FOEN) Identify, evaluate and compare major climate related risks and opportunities across sectors Quantify risks and opportunities Taking variabilities of annual impacts into account Compare with impacts due to socio-economic and demographic changes Identify major knowledge gaps International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 2
  • 3. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionImpact areasInternational Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 3
  • 4. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionHazards and effectsInternational Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 4
  • 5. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate Division Impact area/hazard-matrix E xtreme E xtreme precipitation Average precipitation Average temperature Wind temperature Muds lides / lands lides / s hallow C hange in prec ipitation regime R educ ed s now c over / glac iers R oc kfalls / roc ks lides / debris Thawing of permafros t Inc reas e in average General drought Thunders torms Winter s torms temperature Avalanc hes Fores t fires Heat wave C old wave avalanc he lands lides Flooding Fros tHealthAgricultureF orestEnergyTourismInfrastructure and buildingsWater managementBiodiversityOpen spaces and green areasSelection of relevant fields depends on investigated area International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 5
  • 6. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate Division Climate scenarios Climate 2010 Climate 2060 - A Climate 2060 - B • Temperature: • Temperature and Upper level of A2Socio-economic and (IPCC) precipitation:demographic Based on RCP3PD • Precipitation: Basedsituation 2010 (IPCC) on A2 (IPCC) • Likely socio-economicSocio-economic and developments perdemographic impact areascenario 2060 (literature and expert judgements) International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 6
  • 7. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate Division Climate scenarios Socioecon. and demogr. scenarios Climate 2010 Climate 2060 - A Climate 2060 - B Intensiv- Mittlere Extrem- Bereich der Veränderung: Mittlere Temperatur Wind niederschläge Niederschläge temperatur Ver ä nderung Mitteltemperatur Mure / Erdrutsch / Hangmure Steinschlag, Fels- / Bergsturz Reduktion Schneedecke /Socio-economic and • Temperature and Abschmelzen Gletscher Auftauen Permafrost Niederschlagsregime • Temperature and allg. Trockenheit Schneelawinen Sturm / Orkan Ä nderung im precipitation: Hochwasser Waldbrand Kä ltewelle Hitzewelle Gewitterdemographic precipitation: Frost Based on RCP3PD Gesundheit Landwirtschaftsituation 2010 Wald Based on A2 (IPCC) (IPCC) Energie Tourismus Infrastrukturen und Gebäude Wasserwirtschaft Biodiversität Freiräume und Grünflächen • Likely socio-economicSocio-economic and developments perdemographic impact areascenario 2060 (literature and expert judgements) International Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 7
  • 8. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionExample: buildings and infrastructures(case study canton Aargau)Hazard / effect Impacts quantitative Impacts non-quantitativeFlooding Structural damages Consequences of structural damages (e.g. business interruption) Damage to movables Evacuation + other inconvenience Damage to transportation Damage to remaining facilities infrastructures and vehicles Indirect effects due to unavailability of infrastructuresIncrease in Reduction of energy Altered maintenance costs foraverage consumption for heating roadstemperature (buildings and electric vehicles) Increase of energy consumption for cooling (buildings, vehicles) Reduction winter servicesInternational Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 8
  • 9. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionAnalysing the impacts – Quantitative analysis Annual aggregated impacts of a hazard/effect on the impact area Information on min, EV, max (99%-quantile), type of distribution function Based on – data on former events (e.g. statistics of building insurances) or – expert estimations (experts from impact areas and hazard/effect experts) Definition of probability density functions (PDF) Aggregation by Monte Carlo simulationResults: PDF showing the variability of annual impactsInternational Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 9
  • 10. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate Division Upscaling on national level1. Case study per main region2. Upscaling of case study results to main AG region (method to be developed)3. Assessment for Switzerland SRA-Europe Conference, Zurich 19/06/2012 10
  • 11. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionResults: Prospects and limitationsProspects Results allow for a transparent prioritisation of adaptation needs from a risk point of view Results give an impression of the magnitude of mean and extreme annual aggregated impactsLimitations uncertainties lack of data lack of scientific understanding of impactsInternational Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 11
  • 12. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionThank youfor your attentionFeedback/questions to:niels.holthausen@ebp.chpamela.koellner-heck@bafu.admin.chInternational Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 12
  • 13. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionAnalysing the impacts – Uncertainties Uncertainty assessment (except for climate change) – Estimating today‘s risk: model uncertainty (with impact area experts) – Impact of CC on hazards/effects (with hazard/effect experts) – Development of socioeconomic and demographic environment (with scenario experts by impact area) Sensitivity analyses – Planned for impacts of hazards without clear trends in climate scenarios (e.g. hail storms)SRA-Europe Conference, Zurich 19/06/2012 13
  • 14. Federal Department of the Environment, Transport, Energy and Communications (DETEC) Federal Office for the Environment FOEN Climate DivisionSemi-quantitative analysis of impacts Analysis per impact area Qual. description of «further impacts» per impact area E xtreme E xtreme precipitation Average precipitation Average temperature Wind temperature Muds lides / lands lides / s hallow C hange in prec ipitation regime R educ ed s now c over / glac iers R oc kfalls / roc ks lides / debris 1 Major impacts? (per hazard/effect) minor Thawing of permafros t Inc reas e in average General drought Thunders torms Winter s torms temperature Avalanc hes Fores t fires Heat wave C old wave avalanc he lands lides Flooding Fros t Health Agric ulture F orest Energy Tourism Infrastruc ture and buildings Water management Biodiversity Open spac es and green areas major • Most indirect economic impacts 2 Quantifiability? no • Effects on biodiversity yes • … 3 Analysis of impacts per hazard/effect Assessment of relevance Quantitative results of «further impacts» compared to quantitative resultsInternational Disaster and Risk Conference IDRC 2012, Davos/CH, 28/08/2012 14