Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change Matthias Garschagen (MA)| Research Associate/PhD Scholar | UNU-EHS Prof. Dr. Frauke Kraas | University of Cologne | Department of Geography

Structure of Presentation
Rationale – Advances and Gaps in Current Risk Discourses
Assessing Dynamic Changes in Resilience
Opportunities and Potential
Challenges, Barriers and Limits
Assessment Steps – Attempts Towards a Methodology
Case Study: Urban Development Trends and Climate Change Adaptation in Vietnam
Discussion, Outlook and Conclusions
Lessons Learned
Opportunities and Challenges
Research Needs
Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: GSO 2001

Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Carew-Reid 2008 Source: MoNRE 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
Example Mekong Delta
1m SLR would directly affect ¼ of the population and 31% of the area
Increase in typhoon activity
Increased flood variability
Salinisation
Drought

Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Hoa et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Rationale – Gaps in Current Discourses Expected changes in natural and socio-economic systems Adaptation needs and options Figure adapted from Smit & Wandel (2006) Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Current Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Future Adaptive Strategies Current Adaptive Capacities Future Source: M. Garschagen Source: M. Garschagen Source: MONRE 2009

Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses
Future changes in social, economic, cultural and political systems influence resilience (including adaptive capacities and adaptation needs/wants) of different population groups and/or sectors in multiple ways
Risk awareness
Accepted levels of risk
Changing political and socio-cultural priorities
Changes in funding
Economic growth
Changing security networks and redistribution systems
Socio-economic disparities
...

Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses risk awareness accepted level or risk social / political priorities lifestyles disparities internal monetary flows ODA influence of civil society etc. etc. demography urbanisation economic growth industrialisation disaster risk management globalisation / global markets political (re-) organisation migration health care insurance systems etc. Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Assessing Dynamic Developments in Resilience – Challenges
High uncertainties
Depends on human-decisions
Socio-cultural-politital systems are interlinked, very complex and often chaotic
Scale questions
Time
Geographical / administrative
System components
Scientific credibility
Balance between “fortune-telling“ and doing validated science
Balance between qualitative “best guess“ and modelling-based projections
Political sensitivity
Prone to allegation of political advocacy/lobbying
“ Obejective science“ vs. subjective visioning
Acquisition of independent / un-biased funding

Rationale – Assessment Steps (First Attempts) Current vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies / potentials Can we learn how future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies could look like? Assessing/predicting future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptive capacities, and (new) exposure Current political set-up and socio-economic conditions Can we predict future political and socio-economic conditions/trends/possible pathways and their influence on future vulnerabilities, coping capacities, adaptive capacities of distinct population groups? Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam
1985: ~ 20% of population urban (ca. 11.5 million)
2010: ~ 30% of population urban (ca. 26 million)
Source: own draft based on UN/DESA 2008 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

10,000 ha/year converted from rural to urban use in Vietnam (Coulthart et al. 2006)
Already today, infra- structure development cannot keep pace with urban sprawl and densification (in particular, sewerage, drainage and housing)
Source: M Garschagen 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Master plan for development of urban areas envisages to limit urban growth and sprawl, in particular of mega-urban areas
Yet, in how far governmental tools are powerful enough – in context of transformation – has to be seen
Result has great influence on vulnerability and adaptation (requirements and constraints)
Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam => Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society state private business sector civil society private business sector state

Increased influence of actors in the private economic sector
thereby challenging the effectiveness of governmental planning (e.g. zoning)
New hybrid forms gain influence (often informal or even illegal)
Stronger participation of civil society envisaged in legislation but not widely implemented (yet?)
Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society private business sector state

Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement
Goal to decrease vulnerability and „make city more beautiful“
Follows modern middle-class model
Majority of resettled people in debt or forced to sell land-use-title and move somewhere else (often in other slum areas)
Overall resilience effect for those people, hence, contested
Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009&2010

Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009 Source: M. Garschagen 2009

Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook – Transferring Scenario Thinking into the Socio-Economic Sphere current situation scenario A scenario B scenario Bb scenario Ba scenario Aa scenario Ab Direction of Transformation, Impacts, Resilience Effects time Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook
Assessment of possible development pathways in socio-economic and political spheres very complex and difficult
Especially, the assessment of respective impacts on the resilience of particular population groups complicated
Yet, those trend assessments are of great importance for comprehensive and future-oriented risk analysis that allows for preventive action
Scenorios can in this respect be of great value with respect to their analytical as well as normative dimension
More research required in future in order to further explore the opportunities and limits of future-oriented resilience assessments focusing in particular on transformations in the social, economic and political spheres and the impacts thereof for specific sectors, population groups, regions etc.

Thank you very much for your attention and feedback!
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Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Developer receives land use right according to zoning and development master plan Government authorities set aside land for public developments Develops site clearance- and compensation-scheme and plan for construction of resettlement zone Private developer Government authorities Compensation scheme is checked and approved/rejected by government authorities and/or site clearance committee Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Source: own draft based on Land Law 2003; Decision 103/2008/QD-UNBD; Resolution 188/2004/ND-CP; Resoliution 123/2007/ND-CP Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook

R isk = H azard (creeping) x H azard (sudden-onset) x V ulnerability

Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

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