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Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
 

Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

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Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

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  • - Risk discourses partiuclarly in context of climate change
  • Scenarios also foster a more balanced view and help to prevent „black and white“ thinking Helps to identify responsibilities Helps to identify small elements that need to be changed (e.g. Rate of compensation)

Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change Presentation Transcript

  • Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change Matthias Garschagen (MA)| Research Associate/PhD Scholar | UNU-EHS Prof. Dr. Frauke Kraas | University of Cologne | Department of Geography
  • Structure of Presentation
    • Rationale – Advances and Gaps in Current Risk Discourses
    • Assessing Dynamic Changes in Resilience
      • Opportunities and Potential
      • Challenges, Barriers and Limits
      • Assessment Steps – Attempts Towards a Methodology
    • Case Study: Urban Development Trends and Climate Change Adaptation in Vietnam
    • Discussion, Outlook and Conclusions
      • Lessons Learned
      • Opportunities and Challenges
      • Research Needs
    Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: GSO 2001
  • Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Carew-Reid 2008 Source: MoNRE 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • Example Mekong Delta
      • 1m SLR would directly affect ¼ of the population and 31% of the area
      • Increase in typhoon activity
      • Increased flood variability
      • Salinisation
      • Drought
  • Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Hoa et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Rationale – Gaps in Current Discourses Expected changes in natural and socio-economic systems Adaptation needs and options Figure adapted from Smit & Wandel (2006) Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Current Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Future Adaptive Strategies Current Adaptive Capacities Future Source: M. Garschagen Source: M. Garschagen Source: MONRE 2009
  • Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses
    • Future changes in social, economic, cultural and political systems influence resilience (including adaptive capacities and adaptation needs/wants) of different population groups and/or sectors in multiple ways
      • Risk awareness
      • Accepted levels of risk
      • Changing political and socio-cultural priorities
      • Changes in funding
      • Economic growth
      • Changing security networks and redistribution systems
      • Socio-economic disparities
      • ...
    Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses risk awareness accepted level or risk social / political priorities lifestyles disparities internal monetary flows ODA influence of civil society etc. etc. demography urbanisation economic growth industrialisation disaster risk management globalisation / global markets political (re-) organisation migration health care insurance systems etc. Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Assessing Dynamic Developments in Resilience – Challenges
    • High uncertainties
    • Depends on human-decisions
    • Socio-cultural-politital systems are interlinked, very complex and often chaotic
    • Scale questions
      • Time
      • Geographical / administrative
      • System components
    • Scientific credibility
      • Balance between “fortune-telling“ and doing validated science
      • Balance between qualitative “best guess“ and modelling-based projections
    • Political sensitivity
      • Prone to allegation of political advocacy/lobbying
      • “ Obejective science“ vs. subjective visioning
    • Acquisition of independent / un-biased funding
    Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Rationale – Assessment Steps (First Attempts) Current vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies / potentials Can we learn how future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies could look like? Assessing/predicting future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptive capacities, and (new) exposure Current political set-up and socio-economic conditions Can we predict future political and socio-economic conditions/trends/possible pathways and their influence on future vulnerabilities, coping capacities, adaptive capacities of distinct population groups? Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam
    • 1985: ~ 20% of population urban (ca. 11.5 million)
    • 2010: ~ 30% of population urban (ca. 26 million)
    • 2035: ~ 45% of population urban (ca. 52 million)
    • 2050: ~ 57% of population urban (ca. 68 million)
    Source: own draft based on UN/DESA 2008 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam
    • 10,000 ha/year converted from rural to urban use in Vietnam (Coulthart et al. 2006)
    • Already today, infra- structure development cannot keep pace with urban sprawl and densification (in particular, sewerage, drainage and housing)
    Source: M Garschagen 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • Master plan for development of urban areas envisages to limit urban growth and sprawl, in particular of mega-urban areas
    • Yet, in how far governmental tools are powerful enough – in context of transformation – has to be seen
    • Result has great influence on vulnerability and adaptation (requirements and constraints)
    Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam => Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society state private business sector civil society private business sector state
  • Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam
    • Increased influence of actors in the private economic sector
      • thereby challenging the effectiveness of governmental planning (e.g. zoning)
    • New hybrid forms gain influence (often informal or even illegal)
    • Stronger participation of civil society envisaged in legislation but not widely implemented (yet?)
    Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society private business sector state
  • Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement
    • Goal to decrease vulnerability and „make city more beautiful“
    • Follows modern middle-class model
    • Majority of resettled people in debt or forced to sell land-use-title and move somewhere else (often in other slum areas)
    • Overall resilience effect for those people, hence, contested
    Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009&2010
  • Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009 Source: M. Garschagen 2009
  • Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook – Transferring Scenario Thinking into the Socio-Economic Sphere current situation scenario A scenario B scenario Bb scenario Ba scenario Aa scenario Ab Direction of Transformation, Impacts, Resilience Effects time Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook
    • Assessment of possible development pathways in socio-economic and political spheres very complex and difficult
    • Especially, the assessment of respective impacts on the resilience of particular population groups complicated
    • Yet, those trend assessments are of great importance for comprehensive and future-oriented risk analysis that allows for preventive action
    • Scenorios can in this respect be of great value with respect to their analytical as well as normative dimension
    • More research required in future in order to further explore the opportunities and limits of future-oriented resilience assessments focusing in particular on transformations in the social, economic and political spheres and the impacts thereof for specific sectors, population groups, regions etc.
    Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • Thank you very much for your attention and feedback!
    • [email_address] [email_address]
  • Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Developer receives land use right according to zoning and development master plan Government authorities set aside land for public developments Develops site clearance- and compensation-scheme and plan for construction of resettlement zone Private developer Government authorities Compensation scheme is checked and approved/rejected by government authorities and/or site clearance committee Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Source: own draft based on Land Law 2003; Decision 103/2008/QD-UNBD; Resolution 188/2004/ND-CP; Resoliution 123/2007/ND-CP Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
  • R isk = H azard (creeping) x H azard (sudden-onset) x V ulnerability