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Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change
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Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

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Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

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  • - Risk discourses partiuclarly in context of climate change
  • Scenarios also foster a more balanced view and help to prevent „black and white“ thinking Helps to identify responsibilities Helps to identify small elements that need to be changed (e.g. Rate of compensation)
  • Transcript

    • 1. Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change Matthias Garschagen (MA)| Research Associate/PhD Scholar | UNU-EHS Prof. Dr. Frauke Kraas | University of Cologne | Department of Geography
    • 2. Structure of Presentation
      • Rationale – Advances and Gaps in Current Risk Discourses
      • Assessing Dynamic Changes in Resilience
        • Opportunities and Potential
        • Challenges, Barriers and Limits
        • Assessment Steps – Attempts Towards a Methodology
      • Case Study: Urban Development Trends and Climate Change Adaptation in Vietnam
      • Discussion, Outlook and Conclusions
        • Lessons Learned
        • Opportunities and Challenges
        • Research Needs
      Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 3. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 4. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: GSO 2001
    • 5. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Carew-Reid 2008 Source: MoNRE 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
      • Example Mekong Delta
        • 1m SLR would directly affect ¼ of the population and 31% of the area
        • Increase in typhoon activity
        • Increased flood variability
        • Salinisation
        • Drought
    • 6. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Hoa et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 7. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 8. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 9. Rationale – Gaps in Current Discourses Expected changes in natural and socio-economic systems Adaptation needs and options Figure adapted from Smit & Wandel (2006) Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Current Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Future Adaptive Strategies Current Adaptive Capacities Future Source: M. Garschagen Source: M. Garschagen Source: MONRE 2009
    • 10. Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses
      • Future changes in social, economic, cultural and political systems influence resilience (including adaptive capacities and adaptation needs/wants) of different population groups and/or sectors in multiple ways
        • Risk awareness
        • Accepted levels of risk
        • Changing political and socio-cultural priorities
        • Changes in funding
        • Economic growth
        • Changing security networks and redistribution systems
        • Socio-economic disparities
        • ...
      Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 11. Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses risk awareness accepted level or risk social / political priorities lifestyles disparities internal monetary flows ODA influence of civil society etc. etc. demography urbanisation economic growth industrialisation disaster risk management globalisation / global markets political (re-) organisation migration health care insurance systems etc. Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 12. Assessing Dynamic Developments in Resilience – Challenges
      • High uncertainties
      • Depends on human-decisions
      • Socio-cultural-politital systems are interlinked, very complex and often chaotic
      • Scale questions
        • Time
        • Geographical / administrative
        • System components
      • Scientific credibility
        • Balance between “fortune-telling“ and doing validated science
        • Balance between qualitative “best guess“ and modelling-based projections
      • Political sensitivity
        • Prone to allegation of political advocacy/lobbying
        • “ Obejective science“ vs. subjective visioning
      • Acquisition of independent / un-biased funding
      Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 13. Rationale – Assessment Steps (First Attempts) Current vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies / potentials Can we learn how future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies could look like? Assessing/predicting future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptive capacities, and (new) exposure Current political set-up and socio-economic conditions Can we predict future political and socio-economic conditions/trends/possible pathways and their influence on future vulnerabilities, coping capacities, adaptive capacities of distinct population groups? Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 14. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam
      • 1985: ~ 20% of population urban (ca. 11.5 million)
      • 2010: ~ 30% of population urban (ca. 26 million)
      • 2035: ~ 45% of population urban (ca. 52 million)
      • 2050: ~ 57% of population urban (ca. 68 million)
      Source: own draft based on UN/DESA 2008 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 15. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam
      • 10,000 ha/year converted from rural to urban use in Vietnam (Coulthart et al. 2006)
      • Already today, infra- structure development cannot keep pace with urban sprawl and densification (in particular, sewerage, drainage and housing)
      Source: M Garschagen 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 16.
      • Master plan for development of urban areas envisages to limit urban growth and sprawl, in particular of mega-urban areas
      • Yet, in how far governmental tools are powerful enough – in context of transformation – has to be seen
      • Result has great influence on vulnerability and adaptation (requirements and constraints)
      Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 17. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam => Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society state private business sector civil society private business sector state
    • 18. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam
      • Increased influence of actors in the private economic sector
        • thereby challenging the effectiveness of governmental planning (e.g. zoning)
      • New hybrid forms gain influence (often informal or even illegal)
      • Stronger participation of civil society envisaged in legislation but not widely implemented (yet?)
      Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society private business sector state
    • 19. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement
      • Goal to decrease vulnerability and „make city more beautiful“
      • Follows modern middle-class model
      • Majority of resettled people in debt or forced to sell land-use-title and move somewhere else (often in other slum areas)
      • Overall resilience effect for those people, hence, contested
      Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009&2010
    • 20. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009 Source: M. Garschagen 2009
    • 21. Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook – Transferring Scenario Thinking into the Socio-Economic Sphere current situation scenario A scenario B scenario Bb scenario Ba scenario Aa scenario Ab Direction of Transformation, Impacts, Resilience Effects time Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 22. Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook
      • Assessment of possible development pathways in socio-economic and political spheres very complex and difficult
      • Especially, the assessment of respective impacts on the resilience of particular population groups complicated
      • Yet, those trend assessments are of great importance for comprehensive and future-oriented risk analysis that allows for preventive action
      • Scenorios can in this respect be of great value with respect to their analytical as well as normative dimension
      • More research required in future in order to further explore the opportunities and limits of future-oriented resilience assessments focusing in particular on transformations in the social, economic and political spheres and the impacts thereof for specific sectors, population groups, regions etc.
      Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 23.
      • Thank you very much for your attention and feedback!
      • [email_address] [email_address]
    • 24. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 25. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Developer receives land use right according to zoning and development master plan Government authorities set aside land for public developments Develops site clearance- and compensation-scheme and plan for construction of resettlement zone Private developer Government authorities Compensation scheme is checked and approved/rejected by government authorities and/or site clearance committee Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Source: own draft based on Land Law 2003; Decision 103/2008/QD-UNBD; Resolution 188/2004/ND-CP; Resoliution 123/2007/ND-CP Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    • 26. R isk = H azard (creeping) x H azard (sudden-onset) x V ulnerability

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