Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transforma...
Structure of Presentation <ul><li>Rationale – Advances and Gaps in Current Risk Discourses </li></ul><ul><li>Assessing Dyn...
Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale  | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, ...
Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale  | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, ...
Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Carew-Reid 2008 Source: MoNRE 2009 Rationale  | Dynamic Pathways in Res...
Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Hoa et al. 2007 Rationale  | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Stud...
Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale  | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case...
Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale  | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case...
Rationale – Gaps in Current Discourses Expected changes  in natural  and  socio-economic systems Adaptation needs and opti...
Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses  <ul><li>Future changes in social, economic, cultural and political systems in...
Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses risk awareness   accepted level or risk  social / political priorities lifesty...
Assessing Dynamic Developments in Resilience – Challenges  <ul><li>High uncertainties  </li></ul><ul><li>Depends on human-...
Rationale – Assessment Steps (First Attempts) Current vulnerabilities,  coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies / potenti...
Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam <ul><li>1985:  ~  20% of population urban (ca. 11.5 million) </li></ul><ul><li>20...
Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam <ul><li>10,000 ha/year converted from  rural to urban use in Vietnam  (Coulthart ...
<ul><li>Master plan for development of urban areas envisages to limit urban growth and sprawl, in particular of mega-urban...
Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam => Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience |  Case Study Vietnam  | Discussion...
Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam <ul><li>Increased influence of actors in the private economic sector </li></ul><u...
Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement <ul><li>Goal to decrease vulnerability and „make city more beautiful“ </li></ul>...
Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience |  Case Study Vietnam  | Discussion, ...
Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook – Transferring Scenario Thinking into the Socio-Economic Sphere current situation  sce...
Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook <ul><li>Assessment of possible development pathways in socio-economic and political sp...
<ul><li>Thank you very much for  your attention and feedback! </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] [email_address] </li></ul>
Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience |  Case Study Vietnam  | Discussion, C...
Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Developer receives land use right according to zoning and development master pla...
R isk  =  H azard  (creeping)  x  H azard  (sudden-onset)   x  V ulnerability
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Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

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Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

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  • - Risk discourses partiuclarly in context of climate change
  • Scenarios also foster a more balanced view and help to prevent „black and white“ thinking Helps to identify responsibilities Helps to identify small elements that need to be changed (e.g. Rate of compensation)
  • Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change

    1. 1. Assessing Future Resilience to Natural Hazards – The Challenge of Capturing Dynamic Changes under Conditions of Transformation and Climate Change Matthias Garschagen (MA)| Research Associate/PhD Scholar | UNU-EHS Prof. Dr. Frauke Kraas | University of Cologne | Department of Geography
    2. 2. Structure of Presentation <ul><li>Rationale – Advances and Gaps in Current Risk Discourses </li></ul><ul><li>Assessing Dynamic Changes in Resilience </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunities and Potential </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Challenges, Barriers and Limits </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Assessment Steps – Attempts Towards a Methodology </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Case Study: Urban Development Trends and Climate Change Adaptation in Vietnam </li></ul><ul><li>Discussion, Outlook and Conclusions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Lessons Learned </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Opportunities and Challenges </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Research Needs </li></ul></ul>Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    3. 3. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    4. 4. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: GSO 2001
    5. 5. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Carew-Reid 2008 Source: MoNRE 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook <ul><li>Example Mekong Delta </li></ul><ul><ul><li>1m SLR would directly affect ¼ of the population and 31% of the area </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increase in typhoon activity </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Increased flood variability </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Salinisation </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Drought </li></ul></ul>
    6. 6. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Hoa et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    7. 7. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    8. 8. Rationale – Advances in CC Risk Discourses Source: Dasgupta et al. 2007 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    9. 9. Rationale – Gaps in Current Discourses Expected changes in natural and socio-economic systems Adaptation needs and options Figure adapted from Smit & Wandel (2006) Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Current Vulnerabilities Exposures Hazards Future Adaptive Strategies Current Adaptive Capacities Future Source: M. Garschagen Source: M. Garschagen Source: MONRE 2009
    10. 10. Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses <ul><li>Future changes in social, economic, cultural and political systems influence resilience (including adaptive capacities and adaptation needs/wants) of different population groups and/or sectors in multiple ways </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Risk awareness </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Accepted levels of risk </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changing political and socio-cultural priorities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changes in funding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Economic growth </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Changing security networks and redistribution systems </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Socio-economic disparities </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>... </li></ul></ul>Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    11. 11. Rationale – Gaps in Current Risk Discourses risk awareness accepted level or risk social / political priorities lifestyles disparities internal monetary flows ODA influence of civil society etc. etc. demography urbanisation economic growth industrialisation disaster risk management globalisation / global markets political (re-) organisation migration health care insurance systems etc. Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    12. 12. Assessing Dynamic Developments in Resilience – Challenges <ul><li>High uncertainties </li></ul><ul><li>Depends on human-decisions </li></ul><ul><li>Socio-cultural-politital systems are interlinked, very complex and often chaotic </li></ul><ul><li>Scale questions </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Time </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Geographical / administrative </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>System components </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Scientific credibility </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Balance between “fortune-telling“ and doing validated science </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Balance between qualitative “best guess“ and modelling-based projections </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Political sensitivity </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Prone to allegation of political advocacy/lobbying </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>“ Obejective science“ vs. subjective visioning </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Acquisition of independent / un-biased funding </li></ul>Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    13. 13. Rationale – Assessment Steps (First Attempts) Current vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies / potentials Can we learn how future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptation strategies could look like? Assessing/predicting future vulnerabilities, coping mechanisms, adaptive capacities, and (new) exposure Current political set-up and socio-economic conditions Can we predict future political and socio-economic conditions/trends/possible pathways and their influence on future vulnerabilities, coping capacities, adaptive capacities of distinct population groups? Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    14. 14. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam <ul><li>1985: ~ 20% of population urban (ca. 11.5 million) </li></ul><ul><li>2010: ~ 30% of population urban (ca. 26 million) </li></ul><ul><li>2035: ~ 45% of population urban (ca. 52 million) </li></ul><ul><li>2050: ~ 57% of population urban (ca. 68 million) </li></ul>Source: own draft based on UN/DESA 2008 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    15. 15. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam <ul><li>10,000 ha/year converted from rural to urban use in Vietnam (Coulthart et al. 2006) </li></ul><ul><li>Already today, infra- structure development cannot keep pace with urban sprawl and densification (in particular, sewerage, drainage and housing) </li></ul>Source: M Garschagen 2009 Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    16. 16. <ul><li>Master plan for development of urban areas envisages to limit urban growth and sprawl, in particular of mega-urban areas </li></ul><ul><li>Yet, in how far governmental tools are powerful enough – in context of transformation – has to be seen </li></ul><ul><li>Result has great influence on vulnerability and adaptation (requirements and constraints) </li></ul>Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    17. 17. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam => Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society state private business sector civil society private business sector state
    18. 18. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam <ul><li>Increased influence of actors in the private economic sector </li></ul><ul><ul><li>thereby challenging the effectiveness of governmental planning (e.g. zoning) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>New hybrid forms gain influence (often informal or even illegal) </li></ul><ul><li>Stronger participation of civil society envisaged in legislation but not widely implemented (yet?) </li></ul>Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook civil society private business sector state
    19. 19. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement <ul><li>Goal to decrease vulnerability and „make city more beautiful“ </li></ul><ul><li>Follows modern middle-class model </li></ul><ul><li>Majority of resettled people in debt or forced to sell land-use-title and move somewhere else (often in other slum areas) </li></ul><ul><li>Overall resilience effect for those people, hence, contested </li></ul>Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009&2010
    20. 20. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook Source: M. Garschagen 2009 Source: M. Garschagen 2009
    21. 21. Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook – Transferring Scenario Thinking into the Socio-Economic Sphere current situation scenario A scenario B scenario Bb scenario Ba scenario Aa scenario Ab Direction of Transformation, Impacts, Resilience Effects time Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    22. 22. Discussion, Conclusions and Outlook <ul><li>Assessment of possible development pathways in socio-economic and political spheres very complex and difficult </li></ul><ul><li>Especially, the assessment of respective impacts on the resilience of particular population groups complicated </li></ul><ul><li>Yet, those trend assessments are of great importance for comprehensive and future-oriented risk analysis that allows for preventive action </li></ul><ul><li>Scenorios can in this respect be of great value with respect to their analytical as well as normative dimension </li></ul><ul><li>More research required in future in order to further explore the opportunities and limits of future-oriented resilience assessments focusing in particular on transformations in the social, economic and political spheres and the impacts thereof for specific sectors, population groups, regions etc. </li></ul>Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    23. 23. <ul><li>Thank you very much for your attention and feedback! </li></ul><ul><li>[email_address] [email_address] </li></ul>
    24. 24. Case Study: Urban Development in Vietnam Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    25. 25. Vietnam: Urban Upgrading and Resettlement Developer receives land use right according to zoning and development master plan Government authorities set aside land for public developments Develops site clearance- and compensation-scheme and plan for construction of resettlement zone Private developer Government authorities Compensation scheme is checked and approved/rejected by government authorities and/or site clearance committee Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Site clearance, compensation and relocation takes place Source: own draft based on Land Law 2003; Decision 103/2008/QD-UNBD; Resolution 188/2004/ND-CP; Resoliution 123/2007/ND-CP Rationale | Dynamic Pathways in Resilience | Case Study Vietnam | Discussion, Conclusions & Outlook
    26. 26. R isk = H azard (creeping) x H azard (sudden-onset) x V ulnerability

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