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Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains
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Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains

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Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains

Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains

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  • Insert power law plot for severity
  • Second figure-> trend of accidents normalized to production-> Separate graph on same scale for EU
  • Second figure-> trend of accidents normalized to production-> Separate graph on same scale for EU
  • FN Fits mit allgemeiner stufe..
  • Beispiel um die Schlussfolie als Danksagung zu nutzen

Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains Presentation Transcript

  • Comparative Analysis of Severe Accidents in the Fossil Energy Chains Petrissa Eckle & Peter Burgherr IDRC 2010
  • Outline: Severe accidents in the fossil energy chains ENSAD DATABASE @ LEA, PSI Energy Related Severe Accident Database Analysis of frequency and severity of accidents Risk indicators * Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications , www.secure-ec.eu *
  • ENSAD- Energy Related Severe Accident Database
    • Comprehensive global database of energy related accidents
    • Full energy chains – from exploration – resource extraction--- transport and power plant
    • Continuous updating from variety of sources
    • ENSAD definition of severe accidents: ≥5 fatalities , ≥10 injured, ≥5 mio.$ etc.
    • 1970 - 2008
    • 965 severe accidents
    • 33605 fatalities (excluding coal china)
  • Historical examples
    • OIL:
    • 1987 Ferry collision with oil tanker, Philippines, 4386 fatalities
    • 1982 Fuel truck explosion in tunnel, Afghanistan, 2700 fatalities
    • 1998 Explosion of fuel leaking from pipeline, Nigeria, 900 fatalities
    • 1994 Derailed tank wagons exploded, flaming fuel spread through town, Egypt, 580 fatalities
    • 1988 Explosion of oil platform piper alpha, UK, 167 fatalities
    • Natural Gas:
    • 2003 Explosion at a well, China, 243 fatalities
    • 1995 Explosion of punctured gas pipeline at road building side, South Korea, 109 fatalities
    • 1982 Gas explosion in building, Lebanon, 89 fatalities
    • Coal:
    • 1972 explosion in coal mine, Zimbabwe, 434 fatalities
    • 1992 explosion in coal mine, Turkey, 272 fatalities
    • 1981 methane poisoning, Japan, 93 fatalities
  • Accident risk methodology
    • Small variance
          • Average frequency
          • Determine trends in time
    • Very broad distribution (fat tailed, Power law distribution such as Pareto) -> no averaging
    • Trends in time very hard to detect!
    Oil EU27 Oil EU27 Oil global Oil global Frequency x Severity Number of accidents per year number of fatalities per accident (per unit of energy)
  • Results accident frequencies worlwide Absolute trend Trend in accidents normalized to energy unit Worldwide Worldwide energy production* *BP world energy report
  • Results accident frequencies OECD / EU27 Trend in accidents normalized to consumed energy unit OECD/EU27 NonOECD
  • Results of risk in the coal, gas and oil chain global
    • FN plot: Frequency of accidents with max. N fatalities
    • Dotted line: Extrapolated beyond the max. historical accident with Pareto tail fit
    • Normalized to (consumed) unit of energy
    • Frequency: average from 2000-2008
  • SECURE* Project
    • Beyond the narrow definition of supply security – sustainability an integral part of energy security
    • SECURE: Define and measure energy security as basis for decision making
    • Multi criteria decision analysis (MCDA)
    • Accident risk: Average risk and potential for catastrophic accidents?
    Develop and quantify indicators * Security of Energy Considering its Uncertainty, Risk and Economic Implications , www.secure-ec.eu Ecological Economical Social Security of supply Financial Risk (capital exposure) Price of energy Short term supply loss Resources / Potentials Accessibility (resource distrib. worldwide) Health effects Accident Risk Proliferation Climate change potential Eco system impact Accidents Hydrocarbons Waste Mid / long term availability of energy infrastructure, investments? Functioning of Markets / ( Geopolitical / Political risk) Technological risk- CCS? Policy uncertainties, CO2 Price
  • Risk indicators for MCDA
    • Risk indicators based on data:
    • Average fatalities per year (unit of energy)
    • Tail Risk: Maximum historical accident
    Risk indicators based on power law fit R1 : Expected number of fatalities per year (unit of energy) R2 : Number of fatalities at fixed frequency (similar to VaR) R3 : Expected risk over this threshold (similar to CVaR) Measuring average risk and risk for extreme events Risk indicators normalized to consumed energy unit: R1 Global OECD (EU27) Coal 0.38 0.07 0.12 Gas 0.09 0.05 0.06 Oil 0.32 0.03 0.03 R2 Global OECD (EU27) Coal 818 336 73 Gas 309 262 46 Oil 1636 261 420 R3 Global OECD (EU27) Coal 1224 605 75 Gas 463 635 52 Oil 3589 505 1385
  • Summary and outlook
    • Analysis of accident risk for severe accidents (≥5 fatalities) based on ENSAD data
    • Separate analysis of frequency and severity
    • Risk indicators as input for decision making framework (MCDA)
    • Outlook:
    • Accident risk accounting - Allocation similar to „grey imports“ of CO 2
  • 11. Juni 2010 PSI, Thank you for your attention