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  • 1. State, Public Policies and Trust in Latin America. María Cecilia Güemes Madrid, July 10, 2012
  • 2. Source:www.cartoonstock.com
  • 3. Main questions:Can the State promote trust?In which ways do public policiesinfluence the creation of trust?
  • 4. What is trust?THEORY Rational perception Belief-Attitude Context Institutions trust + Experiences + images How do State and Public Policies promote trust ? Enforcement Welfare equality Government Effectiveness + + images about us + oportunities to meet with others Cognitive inferences about society and the “others”
  • 5. HYPOTHESES H 1: High levels of Government effectiveness increase the probability of Trust. H 2: High levels of Institutional Trust increase the probability of Trust. H 3: Social Equity increases the probability of Trust. H 4: Further development of the Welfare System increases the probability of Trust.
  • 6. Methodology Part 1: Looking for explanations Focus on: Latin America (18 countries) Multinivel Model Part 2: Looking for interpretations Focus on: Argentina. Neoliberalism Case Study
  • 7. Part I Multilevel Model Variables Generally speaking, would you say that most people can be trusted or that you need to be veryVD: Trust careful in dealing with people? 0=no trust, 1=trustIndependents Variables, Individual Level: Source Latinobarometro, 2008Trust in the Police 0=No trustTrust in Courts 1= Little Trust 2= Some TrustTrust in Civil Service 3=A lot of TrustTrust in Congress Respect to your children, do you think that they will live better, the same or worse than you liveOptimism on the future today? 0=Better, 1=as I, 2=worseIdeology: Left-right wing Scale 0=left, 10=rightCatholics 0=no, 1=yes 0=for those who claim to be inactive members or do not belong to any voluntary organization,Participation in Associations 1=those who claim to be active members of at least one voluntary organizationCivic Activism Taking part in authorized demostration 0=no, 1=si Feeling of Insecurity Living in your country is safer or unsafer each day 0=more safe, 1=as safe, 2=unsafer Just and Fair distribution of wealth :0= not guaranteed at all ,1=little guaranteed, 2=fairPerception of equality guaranteed, 3= completely guaranteedAgegenre 0=male, 1=female 0=illiterate, 1= incomplete primary 2= complete primary, 3= incomplete secondary, 4= completeeducation secondary, 5=incomplete high, 6= complete highIndependents Variables, Country LevelGovernment Effectiviness WB, 2007Social Public Spending (%GDP) CEPAL, 2005- 2006Income Inequality –Gini Index CEPAL, 2007GDP per capita FMI, 2006
  • 8. Results Null Model Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Optimism on the future
  • 9. ***Significant at 99% **Significant at 95% * Significant at 90%
  • 10. Findings of the Multilevel • H 1: Government Effectiviness is NOT significant • H 2: Trust in the Police and Courts are NOT significant (and the sign is negative!) Trust in Congress is significant and positive • H 3: Inequality is NOT significant • H 4: Social Public Spending is NOT significant (and the sign is negative!) • Other results: • Percepcion of equality is significant and positive • Education is NOT significant (and the sign is negative!) • Participation in Associations and Civic Activism are not significant
  • 11. Probability of trust by insecurity feeling .35 Greaterthan 30% .3 margprob .25 .2 0 .5 1 1.5 2 n1Insecurity inseguridad sensación de feeling
  • 12. .35 Probability of trust by equality perception Greater than 30% .3margprob1 .25 .2 .15 0 1 2 3 n1 justa distribución de la riqueza Equality Perception
  • 13. Latin America´ perception of trust? I trust We trust What a bunch of naive people!You trustHe trusts They trust… Isn´t it?