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Spreading of diseases along river networks
 

Spreading of diseases along river networks

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Enrico Bertuzzo covered instead the new topic of water borne diseases and their spreading along rivers. The way Enrico and coworkers analysed the problem, certainly inherited many notions and ideas ...

Enrico Bertuzzo covered instead the new topic of water borne diseases and their spreading along rivers. The way Enrico and coworkers analysed the problem, certainly inherited many notions and ideas sprout the early studies on river networks structure by Andrea (I had a part in it), but also on recent and domain specific achievements and findings. In the presentation he cited just one paper, but the research outcomes on the topic are certainly copious and exciting.

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    Spreading of diseases along river networks Spreading of diseases along river networks Presentation Transcript

    • Rivers, rainfall and cholera. A new challenge for hydrologists Enrico Bertuzzo, Senior Scientist, ECHO lab, EPFL Interdisciplinary Workshop on Frontiers in Hydrology and Hydrogeoscience
    • human bacteria in the environment ingestion of contaminated water fecal contamination ecological dynamics
    • • Mortality rate less than 1% if properly treated • Recovery time of about 5 days • Immunity is acquired after infection; not permanent, lasts a few years (1–5?)
    • the model
    • Continuous Compartmental Spatially Explicit Epidemic Model S susceptible I infected R recovered B bacteria concentration in the environment
    • S susceptible I infected R recovered B bacteria concentration in the environment Pij hydrologic transport network Continuous Compartmental Spatially Explicit Epidemic Model
    • Continuous Compartmental Spatially Explicit Epidemic Model S susceptible I infected R recovered B bacteria concentration in the environment Pij hydrologic transport network Qij human mobility transport network
    • Continuous Compartmental Spatially Explicit Epidemic Model S susceptible I infected R recovered B bacteria concentration in the environment Pij hydrologic transport network Qij human mobility transport network
    • Haiti cholera epidemic
    • Haiti cholera epidemic. First case on October 2010 As of April 15 2014: 00’000 reported cases (7% of the population) ’552 deaths (1.2% of the total cases)
    • Digital Terrain Model SRTM3 network and watershed delineation
    • definition of the graph hydrologic transport Digital Terrain Model SRTM3 network and watershed delineation
    • LandScan Project 1 km resolution population distribution: downscaling of census data through remote sensing
    • Road Network source: openstreetmap.org distances between communities
    • human-mediated transport network Road Network source: openstreetmap.org distances between communities
    • Rinaldo et al. PNAS 2012
    • prediction Dec 2010 Bertuzzo et al., GRL, 2011
    • prediction Nov 2011 Rinaldo et al., PNAS, 2012
    • prediction Jan 2013 Bertuzzo et al., in press SERRA
    • Stability analysis
    • unstable disease free equilibrium perturbation (I>0) epidemic outbreak 10 R stable disease free equilibrium perturbation (I>0) epidemic fades out Basic reproduction number: number of secondary cases produced by a single case over the course of the infectious period 10 R Stability conditions spatially implicit model
    • spatially explicit model Stability conditions eigenvectorcases leading eigenvalue
    • Intervention strategies
    • Intervention strategies 300’000 vaccines 3’000’000 vaccines sanitation 40% sanitation 40%
    • Epidemic or endemic?
    • probability of extinction
    • thanks for the attention