Responding to Climate Change - Driving Ohio Forward

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Presentation given on November 10 to the Clean Fuels Ohio, Driving Ohio Forward forum at CSU and given November 11 to John Carroll University First Year Symposium on Climate Change

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Responding to Climate Change - Driving Ohio Forward

  1. 1. Responding to climate change in Northeast Ohio November 2009 1
  2. 2. Who we are • Sustainability center at the Cleveland Museum of Natural History • Connecting cities and nature • Climate change planning for Northeast Ohio • Services to community – website, speakers, project sponsorship, technical assistance 2
  3. 3. www.gcbl.org Online home for sustainability in Northeast Ohio • Event calendar • Sustainability news and project updates • Climate change plans and actions 3
  4. 4. Climate change 101 4
  5. 5. What we know • The Earth is warming and the climate is changing • Scientific consensus that climate change is caused by unprecedented, human generated emissions of greenhouse gases, mainly from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation • Melting glaciers and ice caps, acidifying oceans, more extreme weather events (droughts, floods, heat waves), changing growing seasons, rising sea levels, more widespread disease Source: IPCC AR4 Synthesis Report 5
  6. 6. Projected local impacts • Continued changes in growing seasons • Lower lake levels due to increased evaporation results from the decrease in lake ice • More frequent, severe, and longer heat waves • Disease carrying insects will survive and thrive easier in a warmer climate (ticks and mosquitoes) • Wetter winters and springs, with more heavy downpours • Longer periods between rainfalls Sources: U.S. Global Change Research Program and Union of Concerned Scientists 6
  7. 7. GCBL climate change activities • Regional CO2 emissions inventory • Detailed transition plans – Energy Generation – Transportation – Buildings • Toolkits for taking action – Individuals – Schools – Business – Communities Resource link 7
  8. 8. CMNH climate change research • Ohio long-term butterfly monitoring project – CMNH Invertebrate Zoology, ODNR and Ohio Lepidopterists • Ohio bird migration tracking project • Ohio natural areas preservation and monitoring – 4600+ acres Resource link 8
  9. 9. Carbon budgeting 9
  10. 10. Global perspective Metric tons CO2e per person in 2005 Qatar (55.5) Kuwait Texas (30.7) Ohio (29.5) U.S. (24.7) (19.9) 4) 0) Ind 1.9) 0) az .5) ) 1) ) Ch 8.4) .9 .8 9. 1. 1. (1. (8 (5 (9 (1 (1 (1 il ( ( n UK ina 27 n ia ia rk pa i ga rn Yo EU Ja Br lifo ic h w Ca M Ne Source: CAIT (WRI) 10
  11. 11. A local perspective Average Clevelander 2030 TOTAL 2009 TOTAL 2050 14.5 MT CO2 TOTAL 29 MT CO2 (50% reduction) 2.9 MT CO2 (90% reduction) Housing 12 MT CO2 Transport 8 MT CO2 Food Goods 3 MT CO2 Services 3 MT CO2 3 MT CO2 Source: Cleveland Carbon Fund 11
  12. 12. Roundtrip flight from CLE to... Carbon budgeting Los Angeles Sydney London Mad meat New York City eater Hong Avg. American Kong Avg. energy use in a... 2030 TARGET Vegan Vegetarian Resource link 2050 TARGET Large home (2,500-4,000 SF) 15,000 miles in a... Hummer Prius Medium Explorer home Civic Outback (1,500-2,499 SF) Apartment (<1,000 SF) Resource link for flight, home, auto 12
  13. 13. CO2 reductions in Northeast Ohio 80 7-County CO2 emissions 70 60 Million Tons CO2 50 Electricity Energy Electricity generation transition plan 40 30 Buildings Buildings Buildings transition plan 20 Transportation transition plan 10 Transportation Transportation 0 , , 2005 2050 2050 Baseline Business as usual 90% reduction Business as usual (BAU) assumptions: flat population growth rate, no growth in Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT), does not include CAFE standards, .8% y-o-y growth in electricity demand Resource link 13
  14. 14. Transportation Sector Transition 14
  15. 15. Transportation Sector How do we accomplish reductions? 2030 2050 Potential Potential Tons CO2 Tons CO2 Transportation Strategies CO2 CO2 Reduced Reduced Reductions Reductions Reduce number of vehicles and need 1 to travel 10% 1,793,627 25% 4,484,068 2 Increase efficiency of vehicles 30% 5,380,882 50% 8,968,137 3 Reduce CO2 intensity of fuel sources 5% 896,814 10% 1,793,627 Align costs of externalities with end 4 users 5% 896,814 5% 896,814 Total CO2 Reductions 50% -8,968,137 90% -16,142,646 15
  16. 16. Buildings Scenario 4.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star 4.3 • “Green” suburban home uses more energy on average than non-green urban home • Significantly less transportation energy required for urban homes on average 16
  17. 17. Buildings Scenario 4.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star 4.3 Developed Land • Population 1.4 million and Cuyahoga County (1948) rising • Grid development pattern 17
  18. 18. Buildings Scenario 4.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star 4.3 Developed Land • Population 1.4 million and Cuyahoga County (2002) declining • Disconnected development pattern 18
  19. 19. Transportation Scenario 1.2 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land Use1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4 • NOACA and AMATS MPOs have adopted climate change language in LRTPs • ODOT 21st Century Priorities Task Force • Plans are largely done, challenge exists to set, track and implement meaningful metrics (VMT reduction, CO2 reduction, mode splits) • Complete Streets policies one “easy” solution to start with 19
  20. 20. Transportation Scenario 1.3 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% 1.3 1.4 U.S. Population and Vehicle Miles Traveled, 1982-2006 • VMT rate of growth is slowing, and declined in 2008 • Many regional and state plans use VMT growth rate of 1 to 2% per year in planning vs. a flat or declining VMT Source: Bailey, et.al, “The Broader Connection between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation and Greenhouse Gas Reduction,” February 2008, www.apta.com/research/info/online/documents/land_ use.pdf 20
  21. 21. Transportation Scenario 1.4 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land1.3 Decrease PerAccess,VMT by 30%and Efficiency of Public Transit 1.2 Align1.4 Improve Capita Availability Use Long Range 1.5 • Transit is more efficient mode in most situations • Won’t work for everyone, but small percentage increases in ridership and trip share have significant impacts on CO2 emissions, congestion 21
  22. 22. Transportation Scenario 1.6 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit 1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift Use Long Range • Single Occupancy Vehicle travel is increasing • Public transit and carpooling % decreasing • What does 2010, 2020 mode split look like? • What do we need/want it to be? 22
  23. 23. Transportation Scenario 1.6 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit 1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift Use Long Range Distance to Work 6% No fixed place of w ork 2% 8% City of Cleveland • Travel time and Works at home 50 miles or more 0% 3% Cleveland PMSA distance play key roles 1% 30 to 49 miles 3% 6% in shifting modes 20 to 29 miles 8% 10% 10 to 19 miles 30% 29% 5 to 9 miles 23% 20% 24% Time to Work 1 to 4 miles 20% 3% No fixed place of work 8% Less than 1 mile 3% Works at home 3% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 30 minutes or more 1 hour 35% 0% 1 hour to 1 hour and 29 minutes 2% 45 to 59 minutes 5% 30 to 44 minutes 15% 15 to 29 minutes 37% Less than 15 minutes 29% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 23
  24. 24. Transportation Scenario 1.6 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit 1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift Use Long Range Cleveland PMSA Principal Means of Transportation to Work 15% Works at home 6% 2050 3% 2030 0% 2004 Other means 0% 0% 8% Walks only 5% 2% 8% Bicycle or motorcycle 5% 0% 0% Taxicab 0% 0% 15% Mass Transportation 10% 4% 18% Carpool 14% 7% 36% Drives self 60% 84% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 24
  25. 25. Transportation Scenario 2.1 1. Reduce2. Increase Efficiency of Remaining Vehicles Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 3. Reduce CO2 Inten 2.1 National Efficiency Standards 2.2 Smaller Vehicles 2.3 Hybrids 2005 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons Avg. ANNUAL VMT Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2 MPG Total (Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs) Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172 Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065 Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892 Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972 Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972 Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209 Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0 Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582 Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606 TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470 2030 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons Avg. ANNUAL VMT Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2 MPG Total (Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs) Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 25 2,200,292,362 88,011,694 20.71 1,822,634,181 911,317 Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 28 4,987,329,354 178,118,906 20.71 3,688,664,414 1,844,332 Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 35 7,950,389,735 227,153,992 20.71 4,704,132,029 2,352,066 Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752 Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752 Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209 Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0 Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 23 13,641,812,645 593,122,289 20.71 12,282,969,481 6,141,485 Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606 TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,100,441,111 20.71 22,789,039,658 11,394,520 34.73% 25
  26. 26. What you can do 26
  27. 27. What you can do at home First steps to a low-carbon lifestyle… • Calculate your carbon footprint – set priorities • Change light bulbs • Drive less • Reduce, reuse, recycle (and compost) • Use less water • Eat lower on the food chain • Adjust your thermostat Resource link 27
  28. 28. What you can do in your community • Encourage mayor to sign Mayors Climate Protection Agreement • Support – Renewable energy use and energy efficiency – Walkable neighborhoods – Transportation choices – transit, bikes – “First steps” – recycling, composting Resource link 28
  29. 29. Support complete streets • What do we want the Innerbelt Bridge to look like? 29
  30. 30. Cleveland Carbon Fund • Calculate your impact • Learn how to reduce • Donate to local projects http://www.ClevelandCarbonFund.org 30
  31. 31. Benefits of a clean energy future • Save money and become more efficient • Innovate and become more competitive • Create thousands of jobs in Ohio • Improve health • Rebuild our cities • Protect natural areas and wildlife 31
  32. 32. GreenCityBlueLake Institute The Cleveland Museum of Natural History http://www.gcbl.org/climatechange Brad Chase bchase@cmnh.org © 2009 Cleveland Museum of Natural History 32

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