Future Agenda Initial Perspectives Full Text

Initial Perspectives

Copyright © 2009 Future Agenda www.futureagenda.org Edited by Tim Jones and Caroline Dewing Designed and typeset by Julie Bartram All images sourced from iStockphoto Sponsored by Vodafone Group Plc All rights reserved. Permission should be sought from the copyright owner before any part of this publication is reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted by any other means. Agreement will normally be given provided that the source is acknowledged. The copyright owner does not accept any responsibility whatsoever, in negligence or otherwise, for any loss or damage arising from the possession or use of this publication whether in terms of correctness, completeness or otherwise. The application, therefore, by the user of the contents of this publication or any part thereof, is solely at the user’s own risk. The copyright owner furthermore expressly states that any opinions given in this document are the opinions of the individual authors which are not necessarily supported by the views of their employers, the copyright owner or any company forming part of the Vodafone Group of companies. A CIP Catalogue record for this books is available from the British Library ISBN 978-0-9549853-1-8 Printed in the UK To keep the environmental impact of this document to a minimum, we have given careful consideration to the production process. The paper used in the production of this document is 55% recycled from de-inked post consumer waste. It was manufactured at mills with ISO 14001 accreditation and printed in the UK by a FSC accredited supplier in accordance with the ISO 14001 environmental management system.

Contents Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group 5 About Future Agenda 7 Authenticity Diane Coyle OBE 8 Choice Professor José Luis Nueno 14 Cities Professor Richard Burdett 20 Connectivity Jan Färjh 26 Currency Dr. Rajiv Kumar 32 Data D J Collins 38 Energy Leo Roodhart 42 Food Jim Kirkwood 48 Health Jack Lord 54 Identity Professor Mike Hardy OBE 60 Migration Professor Richard Black 66 Money Dave Birch 72 Transport Mark Philips 78 Waste Professor Ian Williams 84 Water Professor Stewart Burn 90 Work Chris Meyer 96 Biographies 103 3

We have all heard enough to know we live in a world that is facing some significant, potentially life-threatening challenges and yet, as a society, we lack clear direction and seem ill-prepared to do anything. What is evident is that individual, corporate and even national action is not enough. Issues such as climate change, population increase and the development of socio-economic infrastructures all require a co-coordinated, urgent and focused approach. The Future Agenda provides a forum for discussion on how to address the challenges we face and gives you the opportunity to share ideas, visions and solutions and ultimately seed change by contributing to the debate via the website www.futureagenda.org This booklet is the beginning of that discussion with experts from academia and industry establishing initial points of view on a range of issues. The opinions expressed in this document are not ours but those of independent experts whose views we respect even if we don’t always agree with them. I thank them for their wholehearted support. They have important things to say that should be of interest to anyone concerned with creating a sustainable future for us all. Mobile technology can offer many socio-economic benefits but I believe that the most important contribution that the industry can offer is the power to allow people to communicate. Never has a conversation been more important. Vittorio Colao, CEO Vodafone Group 5

About Future Agenda Supported by Vodafone Group, the Future Agenda is a unique cross-discipline programme which aims to bring together thoughtful people from around the world to address the greatest challenges of the next decade. In doing so, it is mapping out the major issues, identifying and debating potential solutions and suggesting possible ways forward. We hope, as a consequence, that it will provide a platform for collective innovation at a higher level than has been previously been achieved. As the world responds to accelerating challenges, organisations are seeking to gain clearer and more informed views of the future so that they can place intelligent bets in terms of business strategy and innovation focus. In order to understand emerging opportunities, we believe organisations should look, beyond their traditional horizons, and use new combinations of insight and foresight methodologies. The Future Agenda programme has already gained the support of a range of corporate, government and third sector organisations keen to share perspectives, challenge each others views and identify ways forward across the topics being addressed. As all participants are free to use the material as a source for ongoing research and innovation, we invite you to add your views into the mix to build and share a unique view of the future we need to collectively address. 7

Diane Coyle OBE Founder, Enlightenment Economics and Member, BBC Trust Future of Authenticity 8

The Global Challenge Authenticity has great salience in our times because new information and communication technologies have The technologies greatly expanded the scale and scope of the inauthentic. For example, they have made identity fraud possible which seem to protect the bad and also playful; many of us now have multiple personalities online. When it is easy to choose an identity, what guys - the identity does that imply for the underlying reality? How do I know who I am, and how do you know who I am, and how thieves or does my bank know who I am? spammers - also seem able to lead repressive It is now so easy to make imitations that the value of communication in the past 20-30 years, copying and authorities to the authentic has been enhanced. This phenomenon sharing information has become easier and cheaper clamp down on was pointed out by the critic Walter Benjamin long ago than anybody of an earlier generation could have the good guys. This is a genuinely (in The Work of Art in the Age of Mechanical imagined - especially when so many goods and services difficult dilemma. Reproduction). Furthermore, given the historically are digitally delivered. Managing this explosion in unprecedented declines in the cost of computing and imitation is one of the real challenges of the digital age. Options and Possibilities People can be authentic or not. Online identities can reflect the multiple ways we think about ourselves: A work and a home email; Several different sign-ups for accounts; a Twitter account; perhaps Facebook profiles, or a character in World of Warcraft. These are the benign possibilities. There are malign ones too. Thieves will seek our log-ins and passwords to bank accounts. Malicious spirits will hide behind fake identities to spread rumours, attack other people, incite violence even. What are we to think about the cloak of anonymity online? It seems to encourage intemperate comments, rudeness and viciousness in online forums. On the other hand, it is essential to protect whistleblowers, or those who post information in a country affected by violence or a repressive regime. The technologies which seem to protect the bad guys - the identity thieves or spammers - also seem able to lead repressive authorities to clamp down on the good guys. This is a genuinely difficult dilemma. Things can be authentic or not. Fakes are proliferating in the online world. Fake What’s more, the majority of reasonable people don’t drugs are sold over the internet, to the great harm of seem to believe there’s much wrong with intangible piracy the customers. ‘Fake’ music, films, software are - it’s a different matter in the tangible world of medicines sold too, to the benefit of customers but not of or aircraft parts. What is the authentic reality that the full copyright owners. Piracy in this metaphorical sense force of the law and the state should be protecting? After is absolutely rampant. all, an online copy of a song is no different from the original. Future of Authenticity 9

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org The internet Information can be authentic or not. Finally, experience can be authentic or not. and modern communications, This has always been a fundamental issue in how we Authenticity has an existential value. In rich countries, amplify the navigate the world but is overwhelmingly important now where most people have lots of stuff, experience is questions of that so many people have access to so much more valuable. Activities that take time - ballooning, veracity and reliability which information. The internet, modern communications, cooking lessons, a holiday, book club meetings - are have always amplify the questions of veracity and reliability which considered good presents, treats. Representations of affected the have always affected the mass media. Urban myths experience have value too. Street style sells - as does mass media. Urban myths move with the speed of light down fibre optic cables. home made jam or hand-made crafts. But of course move with the Rumours and incitements to violence are spread, as being packaged and sold makes the authentic instantly speed of light always, person to person - but each person can now inauthentic. down fibre reach many others, very quickly. A flash mob can be optic cables. These reflections contain an enormous range of assembled either to dance in the streets of London or challenges and trade-offs. beat up and stab neighbours in Kenya. The skill of verification has become fundamental. Can you identify spam email? Can you recognise bias in your source of news? Is Wikipedia a good source for homework? The Way Forward A number of steps will have to taken so that we can establish some form of order in the digital world. These are 1) The establishment of credible, digital identities. This is essential for trust - and hence any economic and commercial activity - online. But conversely it is equally important to protect privacy - and anonymity too where it’s needed. 2) The protection of intellectual property in the online world while continuing to protect civic space, an intellectual commons - what James Boyle has entitled The Public Domain in his recent book of this title. 3) The continued provision of widespread access to communications and information. This brings enormous benefits especially to people largely excluded from the privileged information access of the past (libraries, print media). At the same time we must build in verification mechanisms, ensuring the reliability of widely-accessed online information. 10 Future of Authenticity

The issues raised in all these different contexts are the more so when it can be spread rapidly via the The most effective varied, and difficult. For some of them, it is quite likely internet, email and mobile and potentially change way to counteract falsehoods in that there will be many technology-based solutions people’s behaviour. While SMS messages have been future will forthcoming in the near future. used to positive effect to spread correct information and probably come encourage positive action - as in elections from the from the pooling There are key areas where technology is already playing of many Phillipines to Zimbabwe - there were concerns that a major role in authenticity: Digital Right Management messages and messages containing misinformation and lies were reports so the (DRM) uses technology to limit access to certain content being used to encourage and incite the violence after people can see - technology having created the potential for access in where there is a Kenya’s December 2008 election. The most effective the first place. Equally biometric identity uses technology consistent story. way to counteract falsehoods in future will probably to limit the potential to form multiple identities. If my come from the pooling of many messages and reports avatar can always be traced back to the me of my DNA, so the people can see where there is a consistent story. is there any point in having it? The aggregation of different sources - which can be I predict technological ‘solutions’ will be commonplace done using new social media applications such as in the next few years. Sellers of content, government Ushahidi - could be a powerful tool for verification. agencies, airlines, and others will put up hurdles For reasons of food safety as well as personal designed to identify individuals. The world of ‘Minority preferences - for organic food, or fair trade food perhaps Report’ will lurch closer. But taken too far, this is a - traceability has become an important issue. The dystopia. The technologies ought to open up the world of prototype Fair Tracing Project uses online maps to follow information and creativity. If the full potential of the products on their journeys from farmers to consumers. information and communication technologies for the Tracing will involve ‘tagging‘ individual products with majority of people is to be recognized, technology can information readily accessible by both producer and not be used to build mechanisms which protect existing consumer. The information that may be attached to interests or structures and prevent change. ICTs are tagged products is virtually limitless, beginning with disruptive technologies. Printing was ultimately absolutely details of the product’s date and cost of creation, as well revolutionary - it’s why we all (in the rich west and many as its individual creator and his/her working environment other countries too) have an education and the vote. The and pay, through the various steps of its transport internet is revolutionary too. This is uncomfortable for to the eventual point-of-sale to the consumer.” those who were previously comfortable. (http://web4.cs.ucl.ac.uk/students/v.shah/fairTracing/) So although technology can certainly in the short or Another example is Sourcemap, a new tool which medium term clamp down on its own effects, it is at the permits the researching and optimization of supply expense of restricting some of the positive potential. chains, using transparency to deliver sustainability. In the longer term we need to look for better solutions. (http://ow.ly/rgRs) The most promising will depend on greater Finally, online security and encryption are ways of transparency of information and reputation. Here are protecting personal information and safeguarding some examples. personal identity. That identity is created offline. The Misinformation is dangerous in any context, including likely next step in establishing identity is likely to be misinformation spread via conventional media. It’s all biometric technology which will link the physical person Future of Authenticity 11

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org The fact isthat to the digital environment - a thumbprint pad on the The fact is that virtual identity and "physical" identity virtual identity and computer screen, perhaps. But a person’s online, are not the same thing, and they differ in ways that "physical" identity are not the same connected identity could potentially be impossible to we are only beginning to take on board.” thing, and they copy when it consists, as it eventually may, of all the (http://digitaldebateblogs.typepad.com/digital_identity differ in ways that accumulated patterns of their digital activities. Each /2009/09/what-identity-is-important.html) we are only individual’s activities and conversations and searches is beginning to take Technological solutions are likely to need changes to on board as unique as a fingerprint. Dave Birch, who runs the social and legal institutions as well. Thus it is feasible to Digital Identity Forum, says in a recent blog post: “the imagine identifying a person through the pattern of their "common sense" notion of identity, rooted in our pre- communications and online activities, but this ability will industrial social structures and pre-human cortex, is not be irrelevant unless government authorities in particular only not very good at dealing with the properties and will accept alternatives to the present paper-based implications of identity in an online world, but positively proof of legal identity. misleading when applied to system and service design. 12 Future of Authenticity

Impact and Implications The journey is unlikely to be easy. A comparison between the valuation of any company and its physical assets There will be shows that the vast majority of value in the economy is intangible and based on an understanding of what it an ‘arms race’ between efforts is - whether or not it is authentic. Intangible value can evaporate overnight - and we’ve seen many examples to market of that, for instance in banking recently, in the case of Enron before that. This makes reputation everything, products or and the only way to sustain a reputation is to live it constantly. create or shape a reputation and resistance to Reputation is fragile - taking time to build but able The triangulation of information from different sources any message to vanish overnight - it and will be more robust the will become an essential skill, an aspect of ‘media which is not more it is the product of personal experience and literacy’ without which consumers and citizens will be wholly authentic. recommendations. Personalization will, paradoxically, unable to navigate daily life. become increasingly important even as new Trusted guides will come to play an increasingly technologies stretch the range and geographical spread important role. These could be social networks, media of connections between people. organizations, certain connected and well-informed However, there will be an ‘arms race’ between efforts individuals, or companies or other organizations. For to market products or create or shape a reputation and these guides, too, reputation will be all-important and resistance to any message which is not wholly will require constant vigilance. authentic. This is a pattern familiar from the world of A long, collective conversation about authenticity, in at fashion: the cool people move on from a certain style as least some of its aspects, is needed. Personal identity, soon as many others take it up because it’s cool. We verification of information, piracy - there are huge can already see this expansion of the dynamics of challenges in this list. They will be best addressed by fashion in the evolution of social networks as means of creative thought about the potential of the technologies word-of-mouth recommendation. Trends such as which are amplifying the challenges of authenticity to Facebook or Twitter are subsequently taken up by provide solutions too. companies and other organizations as a means of conveying messages, but this ‘official’ and inauthentic use of a social medium in turn leads to resistance amongst users of networks who move on to another online location. Future of Authenticity 13

Professor José Luis Nueno IESE, Barcelona Future of Choice 14

The Global Challenge The world has changed: Product supply and demand is globalized and there is no putting the genie back in Consumers are the bottle. The flow of goods from Asia to the west has created an economic dependency over the past ten making a trade-off in a smart years that will be exploited over the next ten. As China and India and other fast-developing economies become way and cost the primary global marketplaces, the needs and wishes of the 4bn new consumers will dominate those of the is winning. 800m old ones in the US and Europe. The days where the US set the pace in the consumer mindset are over and this is not going to change. In addition, choice is being threatened from the Why should we continue to build brands when China expropriation of freedom of choice launched from and India can buy them ready-made off the shelf? Just regulators, media, and the general public. Tobacco, as Lenovo bought IBM and Tata bought Jaguar Land candy, alcoholic beverages, speed, late hours, Rover, with the financial reserves now available, why advertising, food… all are being subject to regulation should any established brand not be for sale? The that limits choice and how we get to know about it. Chinese production model is all about the right products - good quality at a low price and the brand is a The way forward is for all to get used to the new world secondary issue. Yes, there is the luxury sector - the and operate by the new rules. While a few of the usual Gucci, Prada, Louis Vuitton segment of the fashion suspects may put up national or regional protectionist industry and its like in electronics and automobiles, but barriers, the realities of global trade are all too clear and that is, by its very nature, niche - and increasingly Asian we can see the end of variety. In fact we can see a in production. Moreover, culturally intensive products, a changing balance between variety and cost. traditional refuge of variety, are under threat by Consumers are making a trade-off in a smart way and consumer unwillingness to pay. cost is winning. We therefore face the challenge of how to deal with a reduction in the number of options in the In the next ten years I see the rise of Asian retailing categories of consumption but an expansion in the driven initially by the sheer size of the associated number of categories. domestic markets and then a move into the international arena. The Aldi model will win over the Hypermarkets and department stores will all struggle in Wal-Mart one, but what about a Chinese Aldi selling the next decade: They may reduce their product mix products made by a Chinese P&G? Who could down from 26000 SKUs (stock keeping units) to 16000, compete against that combination? I believe that this but continuing to provide consumers with such choice is will occur without any significant backlash. Consumers unsustainable when discount stores only have to provide will follow the mainstream and quickly get used to less 1000 SKUs - an increase in the assortment from the 800 choice given the benefit of lower cost. This will apply they offer today. Commoditization is the way forward for across the board. the mainstream majority and in many sectors this will mean a race to the bottom in terms of margins. The only categories where I see an alternative future Department stores need a continuous stream of new are those that are affected by time; perishable products ideas and innovation to keep their mix fresh and so attract (food), live content (broadcast) and extreme time to high-end consumers, but in a world of less variety where market goods (those that respond to latent consumer high quality, low cost Asian products dominate, why will needs) will be relatively immune. Indeed, if the quality the majority seek out the niche brands? of the staple products is to improve and local production Future of Choice 15

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org We can foresee increases to ensure security of supply, we can see destinations, or hundreds of lifestyle drugs. We will see a world in which rising costs on the horizon - but still with less variety of more of these and, in addition, many disruptive and Zara and H&M are more choice. In 2020 how many of us in Europe will eat complex new products, services or solutions will grab successful than strawberries in December? the attention of an already over-solicited and less Gap and Neiman affluent consumer. As the number of categories Marcus and Choice will also be limited by our ability to process expands, choice will have to be shared among, rather the Aldi model information. Ten years ago we did not have MP3s, wins over the than within, categories of consumption. PVRs, thousands of interesting websites, travel Wal-Mart one. Options and Possibilities With the certainty that variety will lose out to speed and cost, we can foresee a world in which Zara and H&M are more successful than Gap and Neiman Marcus and, as mentioned earlier, the Aldi model wins over Wal- Mart one. Hypermarkets and department stores will lose out to discount stores and the speed merchants. This is clear. The shape of retailing has changed and the consequences over the next decade will be driven by a clear-out of the also-rans. One likely development is in the food sector which is increasing health costs and long-term disease risks, I fast-becoming the tobacco of the 21st Century. We are see that regulators will act. The industry will have to sort progressing towards a model where no single itself out and we will see more transparency on organization can have as much influence as they have ingredients. More variety in food is nonsense. We will had in the past and we will become accustomed to a see a shift to less. Less choice maybe better and restriction in our freedom of choice. As suggested hence, by 2020, again I see less choice within previously, the obesity epidemic has not been categories but more choice between categories. This adequately moderated by the food industry and so will benefit the leading companies (a winner takes all governments will increasingly intervene to limit choice. proposition) as well as the most flexible, pragmatic, and Healthier foods will cease to be an option but instead adaptive followers. will become the norm. Portion size will be reduced and The other certainty I see is a reduction in the number of low fat and low salt will be the new default standards. players within each category. The top mega-brands will Although some companies, such as Mars and Coca- survive as will some of the most efficient non-brands. Cola, have been proactive in cutting back on advertising But there will be a clear out of the middle market - the and taking away vending machines from within schools, me-too brands will become ex-brands and will disappear. and PepsiCo especially has shifted towards lower fat products, the majority of the food sector has not made Some may see that there is uncertainty in how a sufficient move over the past decade. So, faced with consumers will react to less variety. I see that, if they 16 Future of Choice

are not given so much choice, the mainstream majority who will be interested in the hundreds of non-electric Europe with will follow where they are led. Take, for example, what alternatives? Regulation, public opinion and financial around 200m active consumers will happen when the first Renault, Citroen and VW incentives will all accelerate the migration of the will become a electric cars are launched into the European market in consumer vehicle fleet to electric and we will not care secondary 2012. When consumers are given an option to buy one about the reduction in choice. influence to Asia with 4bn. of, say ten efficient, zero emission, zero-tax vehicles, The Way Forward Given the impact of the global downturn, in the retail arena I don’t think that we will be returning to a business as usual world. Consumer attitudes have changed to shift many of us away from wanting increased variety. In addition, the framework within which we consume has changed: Governments, the big brands, the acceleration of China and retail efficiency are all creating a new landscape within which our choice will become more limited: Less will be less not more. Variety is increasing across categories not within them. Over the next ten years we will see a reduction in the supermarkets like Aldi demonstrates, variety will be number of players per category. As variety is reduced substituted by budget. I see that, in the forthcoming and commoditization increases, only the #1 and #2 decade, many retailers will struggle to compete and fall brands will survive. So what about #3, #4 and #5? The down in between the leaders in providing low cost playing field for the future will be increasingly commodites and trend setting. As the continued growth determined by whoever sets the standards. And the of fast-fashion chains such as Zara and H&M reveals, standards will be set by the category leaders and the providing a limited but fast-changing product range is biggest marketplaces - the US, China and India - it is more profitable that holding a broad portfolio to cover a numbers game. Europe with around 200m active the full range of potential consumer choice. We have consumers will become a secondary influence to Asia now entered a world in which the distinction between with 4bn. Therefore, as products and services are prediction and following of trends has become blurred. configured to meet the global consumer, who will be Given the speed with which Zara changes its product increasingly Asian, the variety of choice will become mix, we are no longer certain whether media leads less influential than scale and speed of delivery. fashion or vice-versa. But who leads who is irrelevant when we, as consumers, don’t have to choose. The Back in the 1950s William Starbuck developed one of decisions about what we can buy are made for us and the few ideas in retailing to have lasted: Every retail so variety again reduces. The most important capability model is substituted by a more efficient one. This has for any manufacturer seeking a decent margin will be been the case for the last 50 years and I see no reason the ability to produce faster than the diffusion of a for change in the future. As the success of discount trend. Scale will dominate over choice. Future of Choice 17

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org It may seem In addition, we are facing greater intervention of an reduction in variety in the consumption of products counterintuitive increasing number of influential bodies and groups and services. As they have in the past impacted but fewer choices provide into the world of retailing which will all align to reduce alcohol and tobacco, so in the next decade they will higher levels our freedom of choice. The media, public opinion and impact other areas of consumption from food and of satisfaction government regulation are moving us towards a fashion to transport. Impacts and Implications As variety reduces some may question whether consumers will miss the old days. I don’t believe so. Some of our recent research at IESE has explored choice from a number of dimensions. It may seem counterintuitive but fewer choices provide higher levels of satisfaction: People like to have lots of variety, but when faced with too many choices, we tend to vacillate and delay decisions. We may want 31 options instead of six, but we find it easier to choose one of six than one of 31. In a series of experiments with men and women from a range of different cultures we found that the greatest level of satisfaction, both with the final choice and the decision-making process, was reached when people chose from an intermediate number of alternatives as opposed to large or small choice sets. These findings have practical implications for people offering many choices to customers, consumer and employees today. Going forward, I see that this supports my notion that we will see little consumer backlash against a reduction of variety. Moving to the wider impacts of how I see the future of path or finding their own way forward which creates and choice, it is clear that, although some may see my view sustains a unique position in the marketplace. Yes, my as being a little negative from a Western perspective, it views on choice and the mainstream may sound alarm does highlight the dynamics at play across the retail bells for many in the middle market today, but they environment of the next ten years. As we are cognizant should also provide a stimulus for others to think of a world in which less variety is the predominant shift differently about the new competitive landscape. for most, if not all, categories, then, as manufacturers The future of choice is about less variety, but this does and retailers, we can prepare ourselves for a new not mean less interest. The products that will succeed paradigm. With good quality, low-cost, mass in the future will be the ones that offer global customers commoditization the norm for the mainstream, we either what they want, even if it is before they have recognized need to compete on these terms or else migrate to the what that is. The successful retailers of the future will margins. I have highlighted the successful approaches provide consumers with a smaller portfolio of products taken by Spanish Zara and Swedish H&M in the fashion than their predecessors did in the past, but the portfolio industry where they have both developed fast-fashion will be higher selling products. Less variety means fewer as a core capability. There is nothing to stop other SKUs but fewer SKUs mean more efficient retailing. companies in other categories from following the same 18 Future of Choice

The future of choice is about less variety, but this does not mean less interest. 19

Professor Richard Burdett Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism, London School of Economics Future of Cities 20

The Global Challenge The big issues facing cities are clear: Think globalisation, immigration, jobs, social exclusion and sustainability: Although cities Given that global urbanisation is taking place at an unprecedented speed with a scale, diversity, complexity themselves have a remarkable and level of connectivity that challenges all existing perceptions, questions regarding the size, speed of growth, ability to innovate, shape and land use of cities have become increasingly complex and politicised. Although cities themselves there are broad have a remarkable ability to innovate, there are broad disconnects between urban change and urban policy. disconnects between urban The priority, therefore, must be to identify ways in which policy makers can create a regulatory environment change and that provides a framework for sustainable forms of urban development. urban policy. Urban growth is being fuelled by new levels of mobility Even the most advanced firms need cleaners, lorry and migration of diverse populations within and across drivers, and secretaries. How must cities adapt to fit nations especially in China, Brazil and India. These the needs of all? Also how do we adapt to the possibility rural-to-urban migrants are pulled by the tantalizing that we are seeing an internationalised labour market prospects of jobs and opportunity, driven by the harsh for low wage manual and service workers? How do we realities of rural life. Cities like Mumbai experience 42 adapt housing design and create neighbourhoods that people moving into the city per hour. Where do you will benefit local communities and encourage urban house them and what infrastructure do you provide for integration? them? Transport, electricity, sewers and water systems Technological innovation has shrunk the world reducing - these are technical issues that need to be addressed the cost of transmitting to virtually nothing. Internet in a way that is environmentally smart. users in developing countries could constitute more Migration and in-migration has also created an urban than half the world total within 5 years if trends persist. underclass which is often allocated to specific areas of The reality of urban connectivity taken to its logical the city. Paris is a perfect example. The physical conclusion will create a network of interlinked cities infrastructure, with the beauty and qualities that we all connected, and soon to be even more connected, by admire, has frozen. This means that all its growth (with modern rails and technology. Consider also the effects increasing immigration from 1945 and onward) has of mobility and transport systems on social cohesion created ghettoization. This kind of imbalance in social and economic viability. mobility must be addressed. Lastly, any future urban model must of course be The changing nature of work will also impact on the sustainable. If we are to make up for past failures, physical form of cities. The global economy was born cities will have to produce more energy than they need, out of the power of trans-national corporations and become net carbon absorbers, collect and process global communications technologies. How does it affect waste within city limits and collect and clean recycled the way we live? If we focus on the fact that power water. All this should happen in parallel to the creation and communications capacities need to be produced, of wealth and the promotion of social wellbeing and implemented and managed, it becomes clear that cities individual health. still have an important role to play but their layout and functionality may be different. Future of Cities 21

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Can planners Can planners adapt with sufficient speed to create policies which address the challenges we face? There adapt with seems to be a disconnect between the complexity of challenges of the urban age and our current set of urban sufficient speed to create policies solutions. Planners and urban governance must consider re-evaluating how they address the problems they which address face and consider multi-dimensional, integrated interventions rather than specific policies covering specialised the challenges issues (education, health, housing etc). If, for example, housing is going to be a platform for opportunity, then we face? housing policies must connect with education, transportation and childcare; if transportation is going to There seems to be a disconnect promote mobility and advance sustainability, then transportation policies need to expand choice and embrace between the dense, transit rich corridors of mixed residential, retail and employment use. Ultimately, to be successful, we complexity of also need to share innovations across networks of urban researchers, practitioners and policy makers across challenges of the the developed and developing world. urban age and our current set of solutions. We should also consider how we manage the dramatic Can cities address the environmental crisis of global upturn in immigration and address the fight against warming and climate change? Rapid urbanisation has poverty. One billion people live in disease spreading no doubt exacerbated environmental pressures but slums characterized by inadequate housing, unsafe cities offer the best promise of developing in ways that drinking water and open sewer systems. This makes are environmentally sound and energy efficient - a pre- the builders of informal housing the largest housing requisite of global prosperity. The need is to develop developers in the world and it is they who are carbon reduction policies - such as London’s creating the cities of tomorrow. We can plan for this congestion charge, for example, at the same time as “unplanned” inevitability. There are already noticeable improving infrastructure. This is why the planners in success stories; take for example Ciuadad Neza in London are focusing on improving the transport Mexico City where, as hundreds of thousand infrastructure and have committed to reduce C02 immigrants arrive each year, an open-ended and emissions by 60% by 2050 focussing on existing networked community is succeeding in establishing a housing stock which accounts for nearly 40% of lively economy out of literally nothing. Yet cities offer today’s emissions. the promise of ultimately connecting hundreds of millions of workers to the expanding job opportunities offered by the global economy. 22 Future of Cities

Proposed Way Forward You can become very depressed about cities of the future when you look at all the challenges facing us. There is little But, the more I go and visit cities and through the work we do at The London School of Economics, the more doubt that, seen through the lens I think that there are solutions. They depend on people rather than policies - it could be a mayor making a of efficiency, decision or a community activist. more densely populated, compact cities New Delhi, for instance, holds 13-14 million people series of young men and women who have worked such as Hong depending on the time of day. It used to have the together to create a communal bathroom (toilet). Kong and highest pollution rates in the world but then overnight all Where people don’t have water and don’t have toilets, Manhattan are the auto-rickshaws and the buses were made to change this place is important because it’s where people meet. inherently more sustainable from diesel to natural gas. If you can use natural gas in They have created a moment of pause in the city. This places to live New Delhi, then why can’t you use it everywhere? is one of many projects that I saw in Mumbai, New than the likes of Delhi and elsewhere which are fantastically powerful Houston and In London we use congestion charge, which is very Mexico City. and are done by individuals. effective in re-prioritizing the traffic. There are clear environmental benefits but a radical social difference is Cities are often at the forefront of the delivery of cultural a 100% increase in bus use by the middle class. If you richness In Mexico city, for example, there is a fantastic get the middle class onto public transport you are initiative which is called the ‘Fallon’, The Lighthouse, winning, and that’s a great example. signifying hope; a stunning project designed by an architect called Callas. Next to it is an area of Tokyo is the largest city in the world. Its transport approximately a million people living under the poorest system, integrated by overhead and underground rail conditions, a lot of them using the nearby rubbish tip as systems, means that the average commute is around a way of living, recycling whatever is there, living at the one hour. Compare that to Los Angeles where the bottom. The Lighthouse is a cultural centre where kids average commute is about two hours and at least 80% learn how to paint and do art. Mexico City is a city of of the population takes the car to work. In Tokyo, 80% enormous violence; people don’t feel safe going out of the population use public transport. There is little and whenever there is a crowd of people together the doubt that, seen through the lens of efficiency, more police try to break it up. So an outdoor music area is a densely populated, compact cities such as Hong Kong no-go area. Outside the Lighthouse they have built a and Manhattan are inherently more sustainable places simple amphitheatre out of earth where they hold music to live than the likes of Houston and Mexico City. concerts in the summer. This does more to lift the However, across the scale empowerment becomes spirits of the community than any policy I ever saw the significant; you need to have a system which allows mayor or the politicians do. At the centre of this is the people on the ground to solve the problems where they physical environment. By designing spaces you can need to be solved. I go through the tiny streets of a make an enormous change. small slum area of the outskirts of Mumbai and I see a Future of Cities 23

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications Cities are notjust Perhaps more than ever before, the shape of cities, how much land they occupy, how much energy they a concentration consume, how their transport infrastructure is organised and where people are housed - in remote segregated of problems - but they are also environments behind walls or in integrated neighbourhoods close to jobs, facilities and transport - all affect places where the environmental, economic and social sustainability of global society. Cities are not just a concentration of problems can problems - but they are also places where problems can be solved. be solved. Cities of the future have to be organic, flexible and Creating more compact urban environments generally versatile. As society and aspirations alter over time, the will result in more efficient infrastructures: One direct city has to adapt to change. Utopian cities have never consequence of variation in population density is the worked. The people that created Rome, New York and associated energy demands: Tighter, more compact London certainly didn’t think of them as fixed artifacts cities have far lower energy use per capita than more that wouldn’t change over time. We have to be clever spread out ones: So, as energy costs continue to enough as urban designers to design the city like a escalate and energy security becomes even more of an metabolism, like a body. When it gets older and weaker, issue over the next decade, this inherent design you do corrective surgery. Cities need to be versatile; relationship will come more to the fore. otherwise they fossilize and die. For example, many The quality of a city does not only concern the cities of the last 50 years have been designed around environment. We mustn’t forget that cities are about the needs of the car. But as oil costs soar and the city people coming together. Ultimately a city may be very of the future will increasingly need adapt to modes of efficient in terms of CO2 emission but if the places transportation that are not petrol-dependent. This will where we come together are not beautiful (a word have a significant impact on the shape of the city. which is rarely used in this debate) and if the places In order to be versatile and responsive to change the don’t have a wonderful relationship to urban nature - a sustainable city will also have to be compact. A city like river, water or views that compensate for this human Mexico City, which goes on for 100 kilometers in one closeness, this is not a city that people will want to live direction and 150 kilometers in another, has hardly any in. The qualities I am looking for in a city that is chance of actually becoming sustainable. On the other sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that hand a city like New York or Copenhagen and a city like is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings London which has highs and lows of density, has the and the quality of its open spaces. potential to become sustainable within the next 30 years. 24 Future of Cities

The qualities I am looking for in a city that is sustainable, that embraces the notion of versatility, that is compact, that offers bounds of beauty in its buildings and the quality of its open spaces. 25

Jan Färjh Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research Future of Connectivity 26

The Global Challenge The internet has finally gone mobile. Today over 300m of us access the web using mobile technology. In 2010 In a couple of the number of subscribers reaches 1bn, surpassing the number of fixed internet users. In a couple of years years the number of mobile the number of mobile broadband connections will be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with the majority of new broadband consumers coming from China and India. By 2020 there may well be as many as 50bn devices connected connections will to each other. These devices will work across different networks which, in turn, will be connected to each be in the order of 4 to 5bn - with other. This global, pervasive connectivity will facilitate new types of services and opportunities for people, the majority of industry, and society but it won’t be an easy journey. Delivering this vision is a major commercial and technical new consumers challenge for the ICT sector, but on the other hand very exciting. coming from China and India. Technology in itself will not be a restricting factor. the potential to bring extraordinary benefits, for some it Transport, access, storage, and processing will all thrive will be a real challenge to adapt to this. Information on on the continued effects of Moore’s law and almost everything is now widely available making miniaturization will continue where beneficial. High industries and markets much more transparent and performing systems are of course an absolute necessity efficient. However, the way consumers share information but the implementation challenge is not straightforward. and communicate with each other, utilizing a variety of We need to consider how to deal with the phenomenal online social networking tools, IPTV, images and video, increase in capacity both in terms of number of devices means that how we give and receive information is to be handled but also in terms of the amount of becoming increasingly personalised. This, in turn, means information that will be exchanged between these that individuals, more than ever before, have to manage devices. Power consumption will also still be an issue their own public identity. This indicates that concerns because of battery lifetime and sustainability concerns. around cyber crime and data protection will continue to So, how can we develop a system that is cost - rise. As a result, security and consumer protection effective, adaptable, easily deployed and, most related issues will become increasingly important. importantly, simple to use? How can we develop Business will also have to adapt to a changing networks that are self-deployed, self-operated and self- environment as their services are increasingly delivered maintained? These questions cannot be answered by online. In a world of endless choice and seemingly technology alone; in order to achieve success we need complete transparency some will be hard put to collaboration between network providers, device differentiate themselves. Of course, communications manufacturers and, of course, policy makers both technology is not in itself a limiting factor for the nationally and internationally. diffusion of new products and services - in fact What will this mean for consumers? Essentially evidence suggests quite the opposite - those who are ubiquitous connectivity will continue to change the basic successful will have made the most of the opportunity. structure and conditions of our lives and, although it has This is why brand identity will continue to dominate. Future of Connectivity 27

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Machine to By 2020 the majority of the world’s population will have access to basic telecommunications services. machine and However, even though the current development pace is high, with more connected devices and availability of process to process internet access “everywhere”, it is still uncertain how fast this will really impact and change conditions for other communications value chains, industries and daily lives. This depends on many factors including the rate at which networks as well as can be rolled out and the connection speeds that will be possible. Where there is connectivity, smart phones tools leveraging and devices will enable people to leapfrog a generation of technology, especially for those who never had a data mining will all flourish as land line phone. Mobile voice increase in developing economies may slow down but these markets will add sustainability local innovation and stay in the forefront with overall growth consistently higher than in mature markets. It is efficiency also likely that Broadband access penetration will increase primarily by means of radio solutions in developing measures will markets outside areas where fixed broadband is economically feasible. be taken across the board and in all We face rising populations and increased dependency represents 2 percent of global CO2 emissions, it has a enterprises. ratios which will be exacerbated by scarcities of clear role to play in reducing the remaining 98 percent resources and environmental requirements. In order to from other sources. Therefore expect a boom in maintain standards of living with substantial and innovation of services to meet this emerging continued global productivity improvements will demand; e-government, e-health, e-education, e-work, be needed. This will partly be enabled by the telepresence, logistics and energy management communication industry and, particularly when services will all increase. Machine-to-machine and combined with other vital industries such as process-to-process communications as well as tools transportation and healthcare, will play an important role leveraging data mining will all flourish as sustainability in addressing this need. For example, scarcity of labour efficiency measures will be taken across the board and can, to an extent, be mitigated if machine to machine in all enterprises. (M2M) communication is used to address labour In the corporate world, there will be a blurring of borders intensive tasks; automation is specific vertical industries between large and small enterprises with large scale can be enabled by connected sensor networks. In companies deploying true global operating models, addition, self-service solutions will also continue to grow increased inter-company collaboration and workers far beyond today’s e-bank and e-retailer services increasingly tele-working and being loosely connected applications into areas such as government and to organizations. As creative knowledge workers healthcare; and, the increased global use of mobile, become strategic assets for companies, IT budgets will video and internet will mean that people can benefit increasingly be geared at making them effective. from the services they need more quickly at less cost. Increased connectivity will enable competitive Sustainability is certainly high on the agenda for the advantages and new business models to be sought next decade and here ICT can make a large from mining massive amounts of data. For instance contribution. As the world measures more or less real-time business intelligence and statistical everything by new sustainability standards, whether experimentation, real-time management of goods in quality of life, business success or government actions, world-wide distribution and logistics chains and targeted there is potential for connectivity to play a significant advertising solutions will all require data systems that role in areas such as carbon mitigation. A recent report will be enabled by falling prices on data storage, (SMART 2020) concluded that, although ICT merely communications and processing. 28 Future of Connectivity

User generated content will also probably continue to telecom services revenue streams at the current price Technology in grow strongly, increasing traffic and the abundance of levels. That said, as media consumption continues to itself will not be a limiting factor available information, However, the impact on media become more fragmented an interactive, the gap and there will be value chains and the commercial value of that content between the rapidly growing online share of media time, the introduction is unclear. The online advertising market will grow, but and the online share of the global advertising budget, of many more new products will not be of a magnitude sufficient to substitute will close. and services. Proposed Way Forward Looking to 2020, we see that, while the technology platforms that will enable global ubiquitous connectivity are clear, the way in which businesses, society and individuals use these could vary significantly. Some examples of scenarios that might occur can be described as follows: We see an increased separation between the content As with many scenarios, we see that the way forward and services that people use and the means by which will probably be a hybrid of these. An open application it will be delivered. Companies with strong brands will environment will enable new services and applications shape the communications industry and their services to combine adjacent scientific fields such as energy, could be delivered over the top of independent network food, water, transport, health and ICT - globally and providers and will be tightly integrated with devices. locally. Everything that could benefit from a wireless Simplicity and convenience is the driving force and network will have one. Industries will become brand loyalty will win over variety. increasingly mobilized and there will be an increasing share of services delivered online. Technology in itself The sustainability agenda comes to the fore and will not be a limiting factor and there will be the changes the conditions for societies, companies and introduction of many more new products and services. individuals worldwide. In order to reduce travel and Usability and simplicity will be in high demand, fixed and energy consumption there will be an acceleration of mobile broadband will converge and 50 billion devices new mobile internet services for health, government, will be connected globally. work and machine-to-machine (M2M) operations. Increased regulation will come into place to secure affordable services and drive industry players to pool their resources to ensure that networks are capable, reliable and robust. Future of Connectivity 29

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications It is possible Full global connectivity is already well underway. It has already changed the way we communicate with other to suggest people and groups. The amount of information we can share and the speed with which we can share it is that access to advanced increasing rapidly. Indeed, it is possible to suggest that access to advanced communications will be come communications a “universal right” and that a wide and deep penetration of networks and services is a prerequisite for the will be come a continued struggle against climate change and poverty. This suggests that universal services requirements “universal right” will drive new investments in the industry, while measures to keep services affordable (e.g. price regulation) may reduce revenues and profits leading to increased pressure for lower cost and higher efficiency. In the next decade, addressing the major global Most other areas will to some extent be affected by challenges and a continued shift to wireless and online global connectivity: Money, authenticity, transport, travel, services will bring forward new societal vulnerabilities. mHealth, privacy, identity, energy, cities, migration, food, ‘Cyber crime’ and malware may be increasingly water, waste. For all these areas you can find a use for common, and dependencies on the availability of connectivity. Global connectivity can change, improve information and communication systems will increase. and be used to catalyze innovation in everything. Restricted online anonymity and privacy will also raise Real change, however, can only be made when integrity concerns. As a result, security and consumer communication technology is properly integrated into protection related regulation will increase and industries adjacent scientific fields. This will open up new services will move to capture these new opportunities. in a wide range of complementary industries such as IP will be the prevailing delivery vehicle for much of our healthcare, automation, positioning and information connectivity, and the vertical dependence between management. It is clear that everything that can benefit services and infrastructures may gradually disappear. from a network connection will have one. Not only will Users will access services and content independently of more people be connected, but devices for various the network provider to a larger extent. Business types of automated services and functions (e.g. energy models will vary, but lower entry barriers and innovation meters, surveillance, climate sensors, e-health sensors, globally will also increase the number of providers and industry process automation) will exchange data offering the same service - but at a reduced cost to and change lives. consumers of financed by alternative business models, such as increasing advertising revenues. 30 Future of Connectivity

It is clear that everything that can benefit from a network connection will have one. 31

Dr. Rajiv Kumar Chief Executive, ICRIER Future of Currency 32

The Global Challenge I see that greatest challenge for the next decade to be a fundamental one - what should the world’s currencies The status of the be? Over the last century we have seen the rise of the US dollar as the primary unit of global currency which US dollar as the global reserve we use to measure and value much of our relative individual, organisational and national wealth and currency is investments, and through which we exchange, trade and price commodities, businesses, goods and services. however under The status of the US dollar as the global reserve currency is however under enormous pressure and, with the enormous pressure rise of new currency blocs in the world, many have been asking whether the Euro will emerge as an alternative reserve currency. The 2008-9 financial crisis put enough pressure on the US currency to such an extent that many now see that we need an alternative, but the question is what? Will the US remain as the pre-eminent financial power or will its influence secularly decline stimulated by the recent crisis and its inability to achieve a major technological breakthrough or exercise the necessary conditions for it to remain a reserve currency? And, if we go for an alternative, why would this be the Euro? By 2020, will we, for instance, therefore see the ACU We also have the impact of replacing printed and (Asian Currency Unit) develop from an Asian Monetary minted money with electronic equivalents: The move to Union to become the third global currency alongside digital money will certainly raise a number of major the Euro and the dollar? While Asia may not be ready issues. Especially as the banking and mobile for a common currency, the time is right to work telecommunications sectors see their interests towards a parallel currency. Furthermore, within this converge in developing more widespread electronic context, would the ACU be pegged to the Yuan or the transactions which will minimise the use of cash, or Yen? And will the Rupee be part of the basket that even traditional credit as we know it, digital money will determines the value of the ACU? These global have increasing applicability. As banks adopt new currency reserve questions are a primary challenge for software and the Bank for International Settlements the world’s economies for the next ten years. develops guidelines for electronic money, its movement across national borders will become practical. However, While I see that this is the main issue, I believe that what is the real pace of the related technologies and during the next decade we will also have to address two who either individually or collectively will emerge as the other significant issues along the way: real driver for this convergence? Given the access gap One of the most important of these is the continuation that still exists for significant proportions of the of money laundering that will increasingly impact the population in many developing nations, will we need to smaller economies as the larger ones take steps to wait for true, near ubiquitous mobile connectivity and minimize the impact on their own systems. Will such 24/7 energy supply before digital money can really countries as Switzerland and The Bahamas, as well as have global impact? other financial havens, finally be brought into the Both of these issues will have impact upon international financial mainstream and stop affording haven status remittances, inter-bank transfers and the many to residents of other countries? Will the advanced associated financial vehicles that are presently in place. economies come together and force the emerging economies to join in the move against laundered and ill gotten wealth? Future of Currency 33

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities De-leveraging is It is certain that for the next decade the US dollar will remain as one of the reserve currencies. As such it will already happening still be a key currency for foreign exchange and a transaction currency for international trade and investments as individuals and governments in 2020. The US dollar will continue to be integrated into, and influential upon, the world economy. across Asia decrease their Over the same period, it is possible, but not highly sustainable in the long term and, as such, a leverage investments in probable, that the Euro will become a major reserve based model cannot continue. The 2008 shock to the the US dollar. currency. Although the European Monetary Union led to global financial system could have significant influence: the public introduction of the Euro in 2002, this was De-leveraging is already happening as individuals and twenty years after the first creation of the ECU as an governments across Asia decrease their investments in artificial basket currency used by participating countries the US dollar. as their internal accounting unit. It is unlikely that, That said, over the next decade, it is unlikely that we will another two decades later, the Euro will have become really see the emergence of the ACU as the third quite as significant a currency as the dollar, but it may currency block. This is because Asians cannot decide not be far off. A world where the Euro has equal status on either a viable collation or leadership by one of the to the dollar as a reserve currency is increasingly countries. As experts, including Jin-Chuan Duan at the credible. National University of Singapore, have highlighted: However, at the same time, it is certain that the Yuan although much debated, Asian Monetary Union looks is emerging as the central focus for economic and unlikely in the short term. Just as with the formation of financial activity in Asia with increasing number of the ERM and the Euro, the realisation of the ACU as a transactions occurring in that currency, though with single regional currency would demand cross subsidy limited convertibility. We have seen the rise of China to via taxation between countries, the loss of autonomy in become the world’s primary economic power. This is the conduct of monetary policy and the partial surrender accompanied by a similar rise of India and the of some national sovereignty: Right now the Asian associated rebalancing of wealth between the West version of the Euro is theoretically possible but and the East. Although the recent economic model has practically far from certain. However, dual currency largely been one where Asians produce goods that are systems are common and I believe that, although Asian bought by Americans using money that is lent back to Monetary Union is improbable by 2020, a parallel them by the Asians, this may not last much longer: As currency ACU that allows for exchange rate a number of commentators, including historian Niall adjustments is practical. But the ACU must be based Ferguson, have argued this ‘Chimerica’ balance is not on a wider basket than just the ASEAN countries. 34 Future of Currency

Proposed Way Forward Over the next decade, we will move unmistakably towards a multi-polar world which will be characterized by The introduction a much broader consultative process that extends to a larger number of jurisdictions. Greater coordination of a broad-basket ACU (Asian amongst major economies on financial sector regulation will be needed, and this can be facilitated by the Currency Unit) newly enlarged Financial Stability Board based in Basle. At its core, the coordination will have to be aimed as the third global at achieving greater trust in the transparent and universally applicable working of the financial system. This reserve currency will provide the will especially need to dispel the fear that the global financial system has a bias in favour of any one country world with the or group of countries or group of dominant institutions. As the G20 has superseded the G7, financial opportunity to management of the global system must become more equable: Within this it is possible that a more prominent more appropriately role is given to Special Drawing Rights - the international reserve assets managed by the IMF that currently balance economic influence and amount to over $300 billion. It was used to boost global liquidity in 2009, but additional ongoing and arguably trade. more proactive applications should be made more practical. In a similar manner to how Shell’s current global scenarios Many would correctly suggest that a true single world outline the future for the energy sector, I see that the currency is not practical: Differential interest rates and challenge in the financial world is to also ensure that we selective monetary policies make it impossible and try our best to follow the ‘blueprint’ and not the currency harmonization cannot readily be implemented ‘scramble’ approach: I suggest that we need to while different countries are in different stages of strengthen the global coordination mechanisms to economic development. The IMF is not a super central facilitate the monitoring of global financial flows and bank and turning Special Drawing Rights into a world enable the emergence of new technologies to help currency is neither possible nor practical. However, the balance the system. The major economies represented introduction of a broad basket ACU as the third global in the G20 need to agree to have some arrangement for reserve currency will provide the world with the a universally acceptable reserve currency, starting as a opportunity to more appropriately balance economic unit of account and then also phasing it in as a currency influence and trade. of exchange. I believe that we should adopt such a universally acceptable currency that does not face the risk of being debased as a result of the fiscal and financial indiscipline on the part of any one country. The ACU has the potential to be that currency. But to function as such it must include the Rupee: India is currently the largest economy of South Asia and plays a far more influential role across Asia as a whole than many of the ASEAN countries. The ACU has been seen as a precursor to a common future currency, just as the ECU was for the Euro. Therefore, it is important to focus on how the world will therefore look when this occurs - India is currently poised to be the third largest economy in the world over the next 30 years. Hence the inclusion of India in Asian economic monetary integration is prudent. Future of Currency 35

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications If the ACU is The successful acceptance of an ACU driven by a wide basket of national currencies will, in itself, have positioned several significant impacts within Asia: If the ACU is positioned alongside the US dollar and the Euro as a third alongside the US dollar and global reserve currency the broader implications will be far-reaching. the Euro as a third global When the European Monetary System first came into To overcome the obstacles that currently exist, such as reserve currency effect in March 1979, few people believed that within strengthening the Chaing Mai Initiative and the Asian the broader implications will two decades a single European currency would be a Bond Fund and managing diverse exchange rates, we be far-reaching. reality. At the time of inception the European Currency clearly need to create and strengthen international Unit (ECU) had as little chance of becoming Europe’s safeguards and promote the use and acceptance of a currency as Special Drawing Rights (SDR) had of parallel currency. The move towards an ACU as a legal becoming the world’s currency. tender alongside domestic currencies will necessitate significant monetary and exchange rate cooperation If the Asian Development Bank takes the European among participating countries and, as with Germany in model forward and creates a parallel currency that is a Europe, the role of a centre country or centre countries plural basket of national currencies, the Asian region also needs to be clear. as a whole will gain some decoupling from the US dollar. This will allow economic agents in the region to The US dollar currently acts as the de facto parallel invoice financial and trade transactions in a common currency in Asia, just as it did in Europe in the early currency and reduce exchange rate risks as well as 1970s. However the fast emerging global rebalance is channel Asia’s savings more efficiently within the very different to the world of the 1970s and region. As a regional benchmark, the ACU will help necessitates a move away from the dollar. It is in the share the degree of divergence of each participating interest of the Asian central banks to move away from countries’ currencies, which will improve the the dollar to assets denominated in an alternative understanding of generic problems in a particular currency, and the ACU can be that alternative. If the currency’s market and in pursuing macroeconomic ACU becomes a global reserve currency then a much- policies. The ACU can be used to devise new needed, major world shift can occur: Central banks can instruments that can be easily traded across borders; diversify their foreign currency reserves and hold part of importers and exporters can denominate intra-Asian their reserves in ACU; investors can invest in ACU trade in ACU; and governments and corporate bodies denominated instruments; and both corporations and may wish to issue bonds in ACU and banks can take national governments can finance their operations by deposits and provide loans denominated in ACU. The issuing ACU denominated debt. Such a move will have widespread use of ACU will definitely increase the a positive impact on reduction of global imbalance as it extent of financial and trade integration in this part of will hasten the depreciation of the US dollar vis-à-vis the world. As such Asia as a whole, rather than as other countries. individual countries, will achieve more balanced influence in the global economy. 36 Future of Currency

It is in the interest of the Asian central banks to move away from the dollar to assets denominated in an alternative currency, and the ACU can be that alternative. 37

D J Collins Head of Corporate Communications and Public Affairs, Google Future of Data 38

The Global Challenge The future of data is a broad topic, which can cover a range of issues: some technical, some regulatory, Access to some social and others philosophical. The web is still a young technology - it has only been twenty years information is the great leveller. since Sir Tim Berners-Less and Robert Cailliau invented it at CERN: It will take many decades for us to fully It empowers understand its impact on our society. And the pace of change on the Internet, and that which is enabled by citizens and the Internet, is speeding up. Whatever happens, as it continues to develop, we’ll be presented with more consumers alike. opportunities and more challenges. The web is a fundamentally democratic platform, and it reflects both positive and negative aspects of the offline world. If we take the field of data to encompass all digital new challenges of the online world. Google is involved factual information, the current work of both leaders in many of these, but for me the big issue at the heart and emerging companies suggest the issues that will of the future is that of access to information…to data. arise in years to come. Companies such as IBM, Oracle Today, anyone with an internet connection has access and SAS are making strides in data mining and to more information, quickly and easily, than was database management. Their research shows that available a generation ago to anyone not connected to intelligent systems will become increasingly prevalent. a research library or university. That’s an amazing Other organisations, like Amazon, Sun and even development, but we should remember that less than a Google, are demonstrating the amazing benefits in quarter of people globally have access to the web. New scale and interoperability that come through moving developments will increase the speed, scale and data storage into the cloud. And, if one was to talk to sophistication of the data we can use, but, for most the people who are driving the web forward, they people, there is still a high barrier to access. anticipate a more powerful, flexible and useful web in Access to information is the great leveller. It empowers the years to come. The much-touted ‘semantic web’- citizens and consumers alike. That’s why it’s imperative in which the relationships between pieces of that access to data be fast, cheap, and ubiquitous, information will be both apparent and useable - may not whether you are in the New York, Shanghai, Lagos or be imminent, but it’s certainly within sight. Its advent Patagonia. Right now, in many parts of Africa and Asia, will drive further research, and it will also make the web internet connectivity is both expensive and slow. As more useful to people around the world. such, the positive benefits of the information age have As investment and regulation follows rapid development been unevenly enjoyed. Addressing this disparity is a of potential technologies, they will have to adapt to the clear and significant challenge for the future. Future of Data 39

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities One certainty is The beauty of the internet, and therefore by association access to data, is in its unpredictability. The web’s that information openness means that new innovations appear online every day. Some succeed and others don’t, and discovery will continue to successes spawn further innovation. Two years ago, for example, very few people would have predicted the get better. role that Twitter and YouTube played in the Iranian elections. Even so, as we look ahead, some things are clear. One certainty is that information discovery will continue Also apparent today is the role mobile phones will play to get better. Wouldn’t it be good to have a system that in improving access to the Internet (and therefore to asks questions as well as answers them? A recent data). There are already nearly 4 billion mobile phones article in the Economist described how this could in use today around the world, and over 80% of revolutionise innovation as we know it - citing a humanity lives within range of a mobile network. At the research chemist at Pfizer as an illustrative example. same time, the cost of web-ready phones continues to How cool would it be if he could find solutions to one fall. Computers are getting smaller and cheaper, and of the mysteries of science, perhaps cure a disease, the next generation of mobile networks will improve simply by asking the right question of the web? A access speeds. Already, net-books can cost as little as semantic search engine that has read (and understood) $200, making them cheap enough to be given away all the relevant literature, interrogated the patent with mobile-broadband contracts in some countries. libraries and medical records, and studied the chemical Even when mobile access becomes universal, there will theory, etc, might well suggest workable solutions. still be real challenges connecting some places to the Science fiction? Perhaps, but imagine the value of a larger Internet. There is reason for hope, though: a system that understands the relationships between series of new cables are in the works to improve information in different corpora, created with vastly Africa’s connectivity with the rest of the world, different uses in mind. increasing capacity and reducing the cost of internet It also seems clear that access to data will help to widen access. The first of these, the SEACOM cable, eastern the pool of potential creative ideas - a step on from Africa’s first modern submarine cable, was completed crowd sourcing towards democratized innovation. Think in July 2009. In coming years, some places in Africa of Wikipedia, the online encyclopaedia written by its may well have higher speed connections than parts of users, or iStockphoto allowing amateur photographers Europe. to earn money selling their pictures alongside Doubling the number of people online will have an professionals. Each combines cheap and widely amazing impact on innovation. More people (with more available tools to allow talented people to make the diverse experiences than ever before) will be able to most of the Internet’s distribution efficiency, and this contribute to the innovation happening online. That’s a trend is only beginning. very exciting prospect. Closer to hand is the migration of computer applications from the desktop to the web. In this shift to cloud computing, more and more of our personal and professional lives will be spent using our web browsers. That means browsers will have to be stable, powerful, and above all secure. 40 Future of Data

The Way Forward If we consider what has been achieved in the past ten years, over the next decade we have the opportunity If people are to give more and more power to users. In the world of ubiquitous and uniform access, intelligent agents and comfortable sharing their the semantic web, we have the potential to enable even greater shifts in transparency and access to data than search history previous generations would have ever imagined. However, to achieve this we need to move forward on two with us, we can key topics that will moderate the impact that can be achieved. use that as a valuable signal to provide them One pivotal issue will be identity online, as people The second and related issue, that I think needs to be more relevant become more comfortable managing what information taken several steps forward in the next couple of years, information they share about themselves, and with whom. Many concerns regulation. There is an on-going discussion more quickly. services on the web improve quickly when they people about how to limit the uses of personal information give them access to personal information. An example: without compromising innovation or decreasing access in the process of crawling the web, Google visits more to information. Different countries have significantly than a trillion different pages. Several billion more are different views on this, but, as national boundaries added every day. Finding the right information is like become less significant in a world of digital natives, we having a fraction of a second to find a needle in a need to decide what rules are necessary and how those haystack of astronomical proportions. The links rules should be formulated. We all need to understand between web pages are the first indicator of how the balance and consider the possibility for increasing important any given page is, but our search logs provide transparency in both directions. If people are given an excellent form of feedback on whether we're access to data to re-use, the power of innovation shifts providing the best results. But if people are comfortable to the public, and the potential for sharing of more ideas sharing their search history with us, we can use that as increases exponentially. a valuable signal to provide them more relevant information more quickly. Impacts and Implications Substantive research has already shown us that access to information has significant impact on quality of life from an economic, social and political perspective in many dimensions. For example, think first of the fishermen who can now identify in advance where they are most likely to get the best price for their catch and so sail straight to the port and thus improve their efficiency and also profitability. Or think of the student who can check online to see where friends a meeting up - and then decide whether to join in knowing who will be around, what the music will be like and, even get information about how to get there. Access to new data is already changing lives - what it will do in the future is pretty much only limited by our imagination. Future of Data 41

Leo Roodhart President, Society of Petroleum Engineers and VP Group GameChanger, Shell Future of Energy 42

The Global Challenge The global energy system sits at the nexus of some of the deepest dilemmas of our times: prosperity versus The global energy poverty; globalization versus security; and growth versus the environment. Current energy trends are patently system sits at the nexus of some unsustainable — socially, environmentally, economically. That said, there is still plenty of oil and gas to be of the deepest found and produced, most of it is in increasingly difficult places - whether that’s difficult geology, difficult dilemmas of our environmental conditions or difficult politics. times: prosperity versus poverty; globalization Whatever happens, supplies of easy-to-produce oil will motivations for globalization: For example, as China versus security; certainly not keep up with growing energy demand. does not have many of own resources in oil and gas and growth versus the This is because, as economies grow and ascend the (but lots of coal), the Chinese NOCs such as CNPC, environment. energy ladder, demand is likely to double over the first CNOOC and PetroChina all have a responsibility to half of this century and we simply cannot increase (oil provide the ‘motherland’ with secure energy supplies. and gas) production that fast. Even if we produce Simultaneously, the NOCs of the major resource energy from all possible sources it will be difficult to holders such as KOC (Kuwait), Petronas (Malaysia) meet the world’s growing needs. Within this context, want to expand globally in the downstream, i.e. while oil will remain the leading energy source and there refineries, forecourts arenas, and so by-pass the will be some price volatility, the era of cheap oil is over. ‘middle man’ (IOCs) who traditionally refine and sell The key questions being asked here are when is global their crude oil. Others, like Saudi Aramco, simply want oil and gas production going to peak? This could be to decrease their dependency on the technology owned anytime between now and 2040 for oil and a decade by the IOCs and develop their own staff. The key later for gas. How can we take it out of the ground fast questions being raised here are therefore what will the enough to meet demand? How can we fill the gap role of the IOCs be in the future? And how can they between supply and demand from renewable energy play a role in, for example, sustaining supplies of such as wind, solar, etc or from coal or nuclear energy affordable and responsibly produced oil and gas, when, historically, it has taken 25 years for new energy through better technology, cost reductions, more sources and carriers to obtain a 1 percent share of the efficient operations and fresh thinking? global market following commercial introduction? And Lastly, turning to the major challenge of climate will there be one leading alternative energy source? change, we have to be clear that emissions of CO2 and To add more complexity, the oil market itself is also other greenhouse gases are on an unsustainable undergoing major and lasting internal structural change, pathway. To avoid "abrupt and irreversible" climate with National Oil Companies (NOCs) in the ascendancy change we need a major decarbonization of the world’s against the Integrated Oils Companies (IOCs) such as energy system. Shell, BP and Exxon. The NOCs have different Future of Energy 43

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities One of the main Over the next decade and beyond, there are three main certainties which we call the 3 hard truths - increased uncertainties is demand for energy, an associated struggle for supply to keep pace; and, consequently, increasing around global reserves of environmental stresses: We cannot stop China and India from growing. Within this context, it is evident that hydrocarbons: hydrocarbons (oil and gas) will remain the primary energy source of choice for the coming decades, gas will Nobody really become more important in the mix but both will be increasingly difficult to extract. Having picked much of the knows how low-hanging fruit, our industry is now focused on more difficult resources such as tight reservoirs, fractured much oil and gas Saudi Arabia or carbonates, oil shale, oil sands, and ultra-heavy oil. Russia has. The other certainty is that, faced with the now fully on reducing the CO2 intensity of fossil fuels. However, transparent challenges ahead, the world will electrify, the infrastructure required to capture and transport the particularly in the mobility arena. While big-city traffic CO2 we want to eliminate will be massive, roughly such as buses, taxis and trams will come first, equal to the current infrastructure (pipelines, tankers, developments in high-end electric cars, such as those facilities) to extract and transport oil and gas across the being introduced by Tesla, may help to accelerate globe. It is highly uncertain whether the world will be awareness and acceptance for the general car driving able to build that in time. public to switch to electric. That said, the main source Given the long timelines involved in delivering new of electricity will continue to be from power plants energy sources, CCS is a transition technology the burning hydrocarbons for many decades: Sufficient world simply cannot do without. Indeed the large-scale renewable electrons will not be available Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), before the middle of the century. Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) states that One of the main uncertainties is around global reserves it could provide over half of the global CO2 emissions of hydrocarbons: Nobody really knows how much oil mitigation effort until 2100. But, in the short term, and gas Saudi Arabia or Russia has. It is therefore while seeking to deploy CO2 Capture and Storage uncertain when global hydrocarbon production will technologies, many of the world’s energy companies peak, level off or start to decline. We all recognise that are also trying to address the challenge by reducing alternative sources of energy, renewables, coal and the CO2-intensity of fossil energy by delivering more nuclear are needed to fill the gap: Shell’s scenario natural gas, the cleanest-burning fossil fuel and by experts believe that renewable sources could provide helping the world to broaden the energy mix, with around 30% of the world’s energy by the middle of this involvement in wind, solar and, in particular, bio-fuels. century, up from around 3% today. That would be While the bio-fuels arena is fast developing from first impressive growth, but it also means that it will take to second generation and also to marine algae, there forty years to get there and that fossil fuels and nuclear are also interesting developments around solar will supply the remaining 70% even then. energy. Electricity generated by solar panels is predicted to become cheaper than electricity from While we wait for alternative energy to reach material large scale coal or gas burning power plants within the scale, we may well find it impossible to curb CO2 next 5 years, and countries like Abu Dhabi and Saudi emissions in time because of the continuously Arabia are planning large-scale solar power plants in increasing overall demand for energy. Therefore to the desert. prevent severe climate shocks we need to also focus 44 Future of Energy

At the same time, given the energy supply challenge, developing new reserves, which will have an impact on The days of over the next ten years it is likely that enormous the oil price. Although the price of oil will always be ‘easy oil and gas’ are over. amounts of money will be invested in finding and volatile, it is unlikely that oil will become cheap again. Proposed Way Forward At Shell, we think the world could take one of two energy routes over the next 50 years, which we've called - Scramble and Blueprints. These are both challenging outlooks. Neither are ideal worlds, yet both are feasible. They describe an era of transformation. The choices made in the next five years will be critical in determining which route is taken. • Scramble summary: In the Scramble scenario, fuels. As calls for harmonization increase, policies nations will rush to secure energy resources, fearing converge across the globe. Cap-and-trade that energy security is a zero-sum game, with clear mechanisms that put a cost on industrial CO2 winners and losers. The use of local coal and home emissions gain international acceptance. Rising grown bio-fuels will increase fast. Taking the path of CO2 prices accelerate innovation, thus spawning least resistance, policymakers will pay little attention breakthroughs. The energy system is much more to curbing energy consumption - until supplies run stable and environmental outcomes are much better short. Likewise, despite much rhetoric, greenhouse than in the Scramble world. gas emissions are not seriously addressed until major The best path forward would be to live and work in a shocks trigger political reactions. Since these “Blueprint” world of a more stable energy system and a responses are overdue, they are severe and lead to more sustainable environment. This future offers a energy price spikes and volatility. This is a turbulent better pathway to provide enough energy for economic and uncomfortable world with many tensions and growth while managing greenhouse gas emissions. insufficient attention to environmental issues. I see three key areas where our industry can play a • Blueprints summary: in this scenario energy security, positive role in promoting a gradual energy transformation: energy supply and environmental challenges are anticipated and coalitions emerge to take the lead in First, we need to supply sufficient amounts of dealing with them. Much innovation occurs at the affordable oil and gas to meet the world’s growing local level, as major cities develop links with industry energy needs. The days of ‘easy oil and gas’ are over. to reduce local emissions. National governments Although there are still huge reserves in the Middle East introduce efficiency standards, taxes and other policy and possibly Russia, the western Integrated Oil instruments to improve the environmental Companies (IOCs) have little or no access to those performance of buildings, vehicles and transport reserves. The IOCs will focus in the coming decades Future of Energy 45

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Gas will become on the very high-tech, difficult reserves that can be transportation fuels to compete with vehicle more dominant found in the Arctic and ultra deep water as well as the electrification for a long time to come, especially since and technologies to liquefy gas technically challenging shale oil and ultra heavy oils electric mobility will depend for many years on coal and through cooling found in the Canadian oil sands. Gas will become more other non-renewable resources. The world’s vehicle or by chemically dominant and technologies to liquefy gas through fleet will more than double between now and 2050. turning gas into cooling (LNG) or by chemically turning gas into diesel With a billion new vehicles on the world’s roads there diesel will require massive (Gas-to-liquid) will require massive investments for the will be room and need for diverse energy sources for investments for years to come (Shell will invest in excess of $30bn in transportation. The oil industry may play a role in the years to come. 2009, and Exxon will do similar). delivering more sustainable electricity, including through natural gas, the cleanest burning fossil fuel, and Secondly, we need to reduce the CO2 intensity of fossil through CCS. fuels. The International Energy Authority believes that in the period to 2030 the growth in CO2 emissions from Thirdly, we can help the world to increase the share of coal fired power generation in just three countries - non-fossil fuels: Most oil and gas companies are China, India and the US - will be double the growth in developing new areas of expertise outside of emissions from all the transport worldwide. So the first hydrocarbons. Shell has serious involvement in wind, priority should be to deploy CCS in the power sector, has proprietary thin-film solar technology, and is a especially coal-fired power. In the transport sector, leading player in bio-fuels. For the next few years, for where we can’t capture CO2 from billions of exhaust Shell it’s in bio-fuels where we will concentrate our pipes, the challenge is to reduce the CO2-intensity on additional efforts. Bio-fuels are a natural fit with Shell’s a ‘wells-to-wheels’ basis: We can make big gains by downstream capabilities in transport fuel, and, provided mixing in sustainable bio-fuels, building lighter-weight they are sourced sustainably, they can make a huge vehicles, and developing more efficient engines. In the impact in reducing CO2 emissions from transport. longer term, we can add CCS to hydrocarbon fuel Other IOCs, such as Chevron, will choose to focus on production to bring down well-to-wheel emissions even a mix of alternatives varying from solar to wind. further. Cumulatively, these measures will allow liquid 46 Future of Energy

Impacts and Implications The problems the world is facing around energy in the decades to come can only be solved by global Because CO2 cooperation at an unprecedented scale. Massive investments are required in increased efficiency in using capture and storage adds energy and in solving the Global warming issue. The Blueprints scenario will be realized only if policymakers costs and yields agree on a global approach to emissions trading and actively promote energy efficiency and new technology no revenues, in four sectors: heat and power generation, industry, transport, and buildings. It is critical that the Copenhagen government support is needed summit in December must deliver a credible post-2012 climate regime. Time is short and we must move fast to make it and with the same ingenuity and persistence that put humans on the moon and created the digital age. For happen quickly instance we will need to develop Carbon Capture and Storage on a large scale. The Blueprints scenarios on a scale large assumes that CO2 is captured at 90% of all coal- and gas-fired power plants in developed countries by enough to affect global emissions. 2050, plus at least 50% of those in non-OECD countries. It is a big assumption; today, none capture CO2. Because CO2 capture and storage adds costs and yields no revenues, government support is needed to make it happen quickly on a scale large enough to affect global emissions. At the very least, companies should earn carbon credits for the CO2 they capture and store. Future of Energy 47

Jim Kirkwood Vice President R&D at the Center for Technology Creation, General Mills Future of Food 48

The Global Challenge The demand, supply and composition of food over the next decade is facing a number of major challenges We are in a world ranging from demographics, obesity, hunger and food security to the implications of globalization, of paradox where a growing portion sustainability, consumer choice and new technologies. Taken in isolation, each of these challenges provides of the developed us with some fundamental decisions. Taken together they are a formidable and accelerating global test. world is obese at the same time as 15% of the global In terms of demographics, we all now recognize that Given that ‘government’ uses regulation and taxes to population is with the world’s population growing to around 7bn by drive change, a question is what the impact on the facing hunger and 2020 and 9bn by 2050, meeting our collective economics and profitability of the food industry will be? malnutrition as nutritional needs is going to be a stretch. Adding on to they can’t afford Globalization continues to break down geographic to buy the basics. this is the growing middle class in Asia and Africa, who barriers and equalize food economies across the world, are demanding more of the less calorically efficient so we face several uncertainties around food supply: western diet, and, as a consequence, there will be a The need for renewable sources of energy is driving the significant strain on world food resources. Moreover, food vs. fuel conflict as bio-fuels compete for food with an ageing world demanding new healthful foods acres and increasing competition raises commodity and a more fragmented market demanding more prices; population change, climate change and security customization and personalization, food companies are challenges all increase variability and make food supply asking how they can deliver the right food to the costs less predictable; and, because of the increasing developed world while delivering enough food to meet demand from developing countries, there is significant the needs and desires in Asia and Africa. trade-offs between calories of grain vs. calories of meat We are in a world of paradox where a growing portion and dairy which means that complete protein of the developed world is obese at the same time as commodities are becoming increasingly scarce and 15% of the global population is facing hunger and alternative sources will be required. How then can we malnutrition as they can’t afford to buy the basics. As control ingredient and energy costs in order to make a result food suppliers are looking for ways to both nutritious food that people will want to buy? How can design foods to help some people eat less while also we ensure that we will have enough protein to meet delivering food that is affordable, safe and nutritious global needs? How do we ensure a predictable supply for those who need more. How can we best balance of food? And how will new consumers change the this equation? demand cycle? We are also in a world where food safety is a growing On top of all of this, there is the sustainability challenge: not diminishing concern. With increased evidence of As ever, more unstable weather adds uncertainty to food-borne illnesses and more prevalent, virulent overall food supply and costs, so will increasing over- natural as well as malicious man-made safety issues, exploitation of land resources and the depletion of we must protect our supplies in order to mitigate the aquifers result in a decrease in the acres of arable land risks. The world regulatory environment is consequently available to grow enough food. In addition, over-fishing becoming ever more restrictive and the food industry of oceans will continue to decrease the supply and has to both build trust with consumers at the same time increase the cost of fish protein. as using new affordable technologies to ensure that their food is safe and secure. Future of Food 49

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Consumer There are three main certainties about the next decade which can be seen as demographic, environmental perceptions and technological. around the necessary trade-offs Demographically, as the overall global population Consumer perceptions around the necessary trade-offs between food increases we know, for instance, that by 2020 China between food science vs. food simplicity will be a science vs. and India will have over 33% of the total and the US challenge to manage and may impact the ability of the food simplicity will be a will, for example, become more ethnically diverse. We food industry to implement the needed solutions: Will challenge to know that the food market is very fragmented and there consumers, for instance, accept the need for manage is no ‘one size fits all’ and as the health challenges of genetically modified or artificial foods in order to feed obesity and malnutrition continue. We know that more the masses and provide health benefits at lower cost healthy, nutritious food is a ‘must have’. We also know or will they want more natural foods? Equally changing that the right amount of food will not be in the right consumer preferences are uncertain: Will demand for places to feed the world affordably. expensive individual customization continue to increase while consumers also want less expensive products? Environmentally, as oil-based energy resources diminish Will traditional branded products remain relevant and and water for agricultural use becomes more limited, valued as retailers build their own-brand products? Will we know that commodities, and especially meat and customers want convenient single-serve portions while dairy proteins, will become more expensive. As the also wanting to be more sustainable? world becomes more connected, there will be more global crises related to biological and chemical factors Pharma-foods, the intersection between food and such as SARS, Avian Flu, H1N1 etc. These crises will pharmaceuticals, is an area of growing opportunity for have socio-economic effects that cause industry shifts many in the food sector. As consumers demand more in demand and supply as imports / exports are technologically sophisticated foods with unique, restricted and all of certain livestock (i.e. the chickens complex health benefits, food companies will need to in a region) are killed - remember Hong Kong in 1997 respond. We now understand more about individual’s and 2008? disease propensities from the human genome. Therefore nutrigenomic determination of diet becomes Technologically, over the next decade, there will be technically possible. Technology is advancing and as significant advances in areas such as bioengineering, natural bioactive components are better understood, genetics and nutrition. Advances in information the line between pharma and food will blur: The technologies will improve the production and distribution challenge will be how to continue to find new ways to of food. However more paradoxes will continue to exist: continue to provide natural, food-delivered preventative obesity vs. malnutrition; traditional authentic vs. health benefits and begin to provide natural, food- bioactive delivery; sustainability vs. convenience; and delivered disease state improvement benefits without the anti GMO consumer attitude vs. the need for GMO food becoming a drug. to feed the world. What we are less sure about are the unpredictability in consumer attitudes and the technical potential of ‘pharma foods’. 50 Future of Food

Proposed Way Forward By 2020, it is probable that there will be a number of global policies in place on climate change, energy and We need to agricultural methods. These will be supported by incentives and public / private collaborations to develop new significantly increase global technical solutions. Regulation is likely that will, for example, direct land usage for meat and dairy production research vs. grain and it is a good bet that another ‘green revolution’ will increase the yield of food supply possibly investment in involving bioengineering and genetic modification. These could deliver step-change increases in the efficiency biotechnology, genetics, food of food production and may involve frame-breaking science such as edible oil from algae and lab-grown meat science and protein. In addition, the development of non-meat, high protein foods as meat alternatives or acceptable protein nutrition to reach vegetable alternatives could help us more efficiently meet the increasing world protein demand. the technical breakthroughs required for a I see that to both enable and build on this, we should In order to achieve this, a number of compromises may second establish a global infrastructure to incentivize be required - some of which are within the control of agricultural green public/private collaboration and investment consortia the food industry and others not: Free market principles revolution that will enable us to that can be leveraged to advance the necessary may be compromised as governments become more feed the world. technical solutions to address malnutrition, obesity and involved in the food business; food companies may increasing agricultural production. We need to need to consider sharing intellectual property more, significantly increase global research investment in being open with technical breakthroughs and, in certain biotechnology, genetics, food science and nutrition to cases, trading off competitive advantage for the greater reach the technical breakthroughs required for a good; food industry profit margin expectations may second agricultural green revolution that will enable us need to be adjusted or subsidized in order to enable the to feed the world. In addition we must invest in provision of sufficient food in key regions such as India; exploration/research and development of the meat and producers may be forced to accept reductions in crop vegetable protein alternatives that can efficiently meet yields to comply with sustainability demands, implement the world’s increasing need. We should also initiate a significant shifts in agricultural production methods and coordinated worldwide science education effort to help also grow non-traditional crops to produce the right developed populations of the world understand and food in the right quantity for the right geography; the accept the technical solutions that will be required solve established western companies will need to develop the coming world food crisis. partnerships with new companies from developing countries to gain access to the new markets where At the same time, we must continue to support Africa, most of the economic growth will take place; and India and China in building viable economies to bring traditional western agribusiness approaches may need the vast numbers of their populations out of starvation to change as Asian populations grow and these and poverty; we should incentivize developing markets become dominant. countries to invest more heavily in their own R&D for self sufficiency and potential global trade; and we need to build substantial food education programs across the world which focus on dietary and nutritional health and wellbeing. Future of Food 51

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications In the next In the next decade, the world economics of food will change and food will change the economics of the decade, the world world. Investment in food production, research and technology development must become a priority. economics of food will change Consumers and society in general will need to become more literate in science and more science education and food will will be required for the population to understand and accept the technology required to feed the world: The change the natural / local / authenticity trend may become obsolete. The global community (governments, academia and economics of industry) will need to collaborate in a much more effective way or face the societal, ethical and political the world. Investment in consequences of large portions of the population not having the food they need. World food production and food production, agriculture must become more globally integrated - A true working world market will be required. Decisions research and on where and what to produce must be made on a global basis not on an individual market or geography. technology Political and societal pressure for change will increase as the population and need for affordable food development must become increases in Asia, Africa and India and the disparity between the West and emerging economies around food a priority. becomes even more stark. As a result, the dietary habits of consumers may well both impact and be impacted by future choice, change due to availability and the prices of agricultural authenticity, connectivity, work and money. Food is materials: For example, western populations may need fundamental to economics, politics and other societal to adjust to consuming more plant based sources of issues whether directly or as support technologies. protein as their choices for protein may decrease. In If we get the regulation, technology and consumer addition, driven by economic and/or political pressure, attitudes right, over the next ten years we can make consumers may also be required to change their food a shift: We really do have the opportunity to address shopping habits. the challenges presented to food by the demands of The future of food will have major implications for many demographics, obesity, hunger and food security and other areas: The supply of energy; the use of water; the implications of globalization and sustainability. The the processing of waste and the state of our health are issue is how best to do this collaboratively. all obvious arenas of direct influence, but food will also 52 Future of Food

Decisions on where and what to produce must be made on a global basis not on an individual market or geography. 53

Dr Jack Lord CEO, Navigenics Inc. Future of Health 54

The Global Challenge The world is a connected and shrinking place - and whilst we all are connected - the global issues for health Between now are both dissimilar but connected! How so? I see three major challenges: and 2020 we are likely to see somewhere Firstly, between now and 2020 we are likely to see corresponding investment in prevention and health. between 2 to 3 somewhere between 2 to 3 global pandemics. Several The industrial age model of treating disease in hospitals global pandemics. years ago the pandemic of Avian flu began in Asia; or other high intervention settings has almost a “nuclear today the world faces the Swine flu that can be traced arms” like pace of investment that outstrip any evidence back to central and south America. And tomorrow? In of improved productivity or quality of life. So issue general these pandemics arise in areas that do not number two: “The world is older, sicker and fatter” than have the top tier of preventative or public health it has ever been. infrastructure and, from there, spread to the advanced We are victims of our own success. By successfully Western countries. And our ability to achieve global “rooting out” the causes of death and at least deferring bio-surveillance for disease is limited because of death, we have ended up in a spot with far more people unequal infrastructure, inadequate local investments living into age bands that the world hasn’t had and only limited global cooperation. So issue number experience before. Consider this - today there are more one is bio-surveillance and adequacy of public people living over the age of 65 than ever have before health infrastructure. in the entire history of the world! How do we adjust to This raises the age-old social questions about new roles for people in these age bands? How do we re-distribution of wealth from the richest nations to the engage their minds so that they remain active and poorest ones. Perhaps this is the decade that it will contributing in the face of age related changes? What occur? If “enlightened self-interest” is a driver of are the new rules for work, retirement, and “family”? behaviour, then in a world with airplanes, ships, and What do our communities need to look like? And dependencies on global sourcing for food, it seems only stepping beyond that the “rules” of history around work, logical to attack the pre-existing conditions that give exercise, food and natural resources are turned upside rise to pandemic and invest in the infrastructure to track down. In a world where we used to get paid for and treat. Of the issues the “answer” is the easiest of physical work, we now pay to go to gyms to work out! the global challenges - the question is “is there a will to We have created incredible productivity for relatively do this?” cheap food and have been super sized as a result! And today we pay more for water than we do for petrol. So, Secondly, for the industrialized world from the United issues like behavioral change, social policies around States to Europe to Japan the cost burdens of obesity and personal responsibility for health, public healthcare in the face of demographic shifts (aging), investment in programs to prevent illness through a increasing rate of chronic illness and related pre-cursor variety of means are all questions in an incredibly conditions (eg obesity) present enormous systemic complex situation. challenges. The increasing cost of these effects government and personal budgets but has failed to Thirdly, the role of healthcare as an important part of provoke a change in approach. The context of these the economic infrastructure is often overlooked. systems is a cultural “more is better” attitude to the Balancing investments in new technologies, prevention, investment in treatment of illness without a healthcare related Information Technology with existing Future of Health 55

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org China, India and labor intense processes present a challenge. The and the other around the process of discovery. On the Middle East balancing is complex in and of itself, so high provisioning, when will the industry join the “information are all seeing spikes in the rates expenditure already does not guarantee a high level of age”, how will it rethink the labor and productivity of diabetes, heart quality. Above and beyond this whilst almost every related challenges, and how and who will provide disease and industrialized country has undertaken some approaches prevention services? Embedded in this discussion is the obesity. It is an to healthcare reform, none have tackled the entire transition from a “sick care” system to a “health inevitable march that seems to be fundamental economic questions about healthcare, the care” system. The investment in discovery will parallel associated with healthcare workforce, and healthcare investment. This that transition - from “thermonuclear war” against death affluence and a issue needs to be contextualized to the other societal to the aspirational march to improving health and the knowledge based investments that need to be made in education, quality of life. How do government policies need to economy. sustainability and infrastructure. So issue number three change to re-prioritize these investments? How does is the ‘right’ amount of healthcare to spend as a government thinking need to move from “budgeter” to percentage of GDP. “risk manager”? And how do new discoveries around genetics, probabilistic medicine and regeneration There are two tracks here: One related to the influence the balance of prevention vs. treatment? revamping of the provisioning of health care services Options and Possibilities As the old saying goes “nothing is certain but death and taxes”. But the pandemic of chronic illness and obesity is about as certain as one could come too. And that certainty isn’t only for the developed world; it appears to be certain for the developing world as well: China, India and the Middle East are all seeing spikes in the rates of diabetes, heart disease and obesity. It is an inevitable march that seems to be associated with affluence and a knowledge based economy. There is a reasonable level of certainty to the waves of has greater demands. On discovery, high probability of infectious pandemics - what is not clear is the source a “fly” wheel effect for new diagnostic and therapeutic and vectors. But given history, these diseases seem interventions; a questionable appetite to rebalance and to follow a wave form and become generally more invest in prevention complex to treat and eradicate. There are two paths that need to be worked in parallel. On the provisioning of health care, inertia seems to be A holistic view of what needs to change for the twenty the greatest force. Whilst there are many great first century and a geographically focused bottom up discussions of healthcare reforms, the betting man for reforming healthcare systems. would need to say that the problems as they exist today will only grow as budgets get leaner and the population 56 Future of Health

Holistically the possible changes that need to be one where a balanced research investment - disease In an ideal world considered include; the move from a sick-care system and prevention. In parallel with this, we can choose to the organizations responsible for to a healthcare systems accompanied by a shift from a migrate from provincial mindsets of health systems to a global health passive view to health to a more active view to co- more global view of health and disease, and move from would move from creating health. At the same time we could change a professional driven system to a popular frame of their marginalized roles to a lead from conducting research to treat disease primarily to consumer driven health. role on the public stage. Proposed Way Forward Given the three main issues of improving bio-surveillance and adequacy of public health infrastructure; dealing with a world that is older, sicker and fatter than it has ever been; and, at the same time, determining the “right” amount of healthcare spend as a percentage of GDP, we have some pretty substantial challenges to address. However, as outlined above, we also have a number of alternatives available to us. So what is the best path forward? Many would now agree that, from the bottom up, with subsequent strategies for mitigating or eliminating individual health economies need to undertake risk; leveraging the emerging power of science that assessments of future risk and management of future allows us to predict future health and take organized health inflation. In addition, we need to establish public steps to prevent illness; creating a global approach to policy forums around entitlement to health, sharing sharing best practices, standards for information risks, personal responsibility, and basic health access technology platforms; leveraging technologies to vs. specialized healthcare services. The exploration of improve bio-surveillance and; providing education and the utility and impact of social media, transparency of access to social media resources that enable people to information and incentives and rewards for healthy better co-create their own health as opposed to being behaviors is another one on the ‘to-do’ list. On top of dependent on a sick-care system or be subject to that we should review the effectiveness of bio- environmental influences that they are completely surveillance programs and undertake strategic planning unaware about. for the role of the healthcare industry in context of domestic economies I see that in an ideal world the organizations responsible for global health would move from their marginalized roles to a lead role on the public stage. From that stage, the items that need to be addressed include; looking at population health from a risk managers view Future of Health 57

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications The next decade While progress could be achieved from quickly addressing the key challenges, unfortunately the most likely is not likely to be outcome is one that results from inertia The next decade is not likely to be the time for change, but instead the time for change, but a time that “stressors” on the system become progressively evident. The march of increased burdens of instead a time that demography and chronic illness will remain unabated; for industrialized countries the ratio of workers “stressors” on the contributing to the system compared to the people utilizing government sponsored entitlements will continue system become to drop; and international collaboration to prevent illness in underserved regions will likely remain perfunctory. progressively evident. Increased The net - net is we will see continuing and rising concerns about health and health care setting up the next burdens of decade for fundamental change. demography and chronic illness will remain unabated. While health changes will affect and be affected by And we tend to think that the way to reduce health developments outside in such areas as food, costs is to beat down the supply of care, when we really technology, housing, public policy and financing, the need to invest in preventive strategies today that will core implications are clear. Each of the issues discussed reduce the future demand for care. The boundary contains a paradox that challenges our conventional between now and later is permeable. ideas about how we think about these risks. To manage these risks we need to get beyond the To protect ourselves from rogue infections on our own binary thinking. Between this and that, between us and shores, in today's interconnected world we may have to them, between you and me, between now and later, think about investing in a global public health there is an infinity of intimate connections that we can't infrastructure abroad. The boundary between us and ignore and we can't break. We can't choose between them is permeable. personal behavior and social responsibility. It has to be both because our personal behavior has social We tend to view our personal health behaviors as consequences. We can't choose between reducing personal and not really anybody else's business but our health costs and investing in health promotion - it has own, and yet the diseases that issue from our indolence, to be both or we won't have either. We need a new kind gluttony, and addictions to tobacco and alcohol are of thinking for the pursuit of health. going to be financed by those of us who chose to exercise, eat sensibly, and shun smoke and drink. The boundary between me and you is permeable. 58 Future of Health

We can't choose between reducing health costs and investing in health promotion - it has to be both or we won't have either. 59

Professor Mike Hardy OBE Strategic Leader for Intercultural Dialogue, The British Council Future of Identity 60

The Global Challenge Identity provokes challenge in many ways. I want to suggest four challenges that might be considered noisier How can we than others: make any assumptions about how a Firstly, what I see as the challenge of ‘more-of-the- Fourthly, the ‘the-virtual-identities’ challenge. The 15-year-old same’. There are few signs that the existing challenges increasing application of smart working and virtual frames her or his definitions associated with single-dimension personal and social engagement is creating whole new paradigms for about self and identity (whether as social role or type of identity) identity. Teams of young, professional South Asians awareness are slowing down. So, North vs. South continues to are trained in new identity characteristics (US-English of self? matter - even though new issues of East vs. West are accents, up-to-the-moment knowledge of current US also becoming apparent. Similarly, identities around television soap). Hence, qualified in new role and type faith, social mobility, language, gender and age, identities, they can be profitably applied to a call-centre among others, will continue to create more and industry but separated from customers; more solemnly, bigger challenge. military drone-airplane operators can operate at a continental distance and return home to supper with Secondly, the ‘dealing-with-multiple-identities’ challenge their families at the end of a work-shift. We are turning is likely to become more complex and more significant. identities into jobs (rather than jobs into identities) but As our world becomes smaller through migration and creating new types of social dislocation. mobility, both virtual and real, it may be that people and groups will express themselves more insistently through If in each of the four cases, “identity” means either a multiple rather than single identity lenses. So it will be socially distinguishing feature that a person takes a the particular ingredients of the ‘cocktail identity’ (the special pride in, or a social membership governed by combination of personas and their consequences) which rules, attributes or behaviours (or both at the same time will be the more significant. How will we protect and in certain instances), then the global challenges are respect apparently contradictory and multiple identities? around where difference is articulated hierarchically Will it be through identity personas that we define or will (haves-have nots, traditional-new, digital native-digital it be from an integrated set of values? immigrant, home birds-migrants and so forth.) In the case of the new generation, we may not be able to Thirdly, there is the ‘new-generation-identity’ challenge. predict the challenge at all - as we do not yet This will be where the answers to the ‘who are you?’ understand the basic paradigm - and nor by definition questions are framed in completely unexpected ways. should we! Here lies perhaps the most interesting (and challenging) of all - a new demographic, a new The uncertainty relating to how well we will manage generation of (especially younger) people creating or diversity is another significant issue. In this regard, reflecting new types of social membership. These the potential ‘clash of identities’ must relate to memberships may be a reaction to what we currently a community membership, let’s say European have or be the transient results of increasingly fluid citizenship. This brings with it the complex pattern of social networking, the automaticity of easy travel and relationships people have to nationality. Oversimplifying instantaneous communication. How can we make any nationality by seeing it as a simple and single assumptions about how a 15-year-old frames her or his identity type (and hence in the same way citizenship) definitions about self and awareness of self? would be dangerous. Diversity is the existence of Future of Identity 61

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org A certainty over multiple and parallel identities within one nation, each So, given the multi-layered and multi-dimensional the next ten with its own context and origin. These multiple identities nature of nations, communities and individuals, the years will be the contribution of define and describe contemporary citizens (perhaps and challenge to bring positive coexistence is to develop a identity issues to at the same time with a religion, a set of skills, a cohesive set of values with due regard for diversity and diversity, and to first/second language, food preferences and so on). individual rights, and find successful ways of promoting the challenges of They are further distinguishable by geographic origin, difference while also identifying and embedding a diversity and of living together in political persuasion, level of education etc. shared identity among community members. communities of multiple cultures. Options and Possibilities Of course it may be more productive to ask associated questions by dispensing with “identity” and analysing instead the political implications of personal desires for dignity, honour, and self-respect and the politics of the membership of social groups. In a future 2020 European context, for example, a mono-layered European identity is less likely (and maybe even less desirable); socio-economic and political crises, along with a deteriorating climate, will provoke increasing protectionism - essentially stronger boundaries and potential ‘exclusion’ zones that will brigade sameness. That said, a certainty over the next ten years will be the shared by all members with respect and understanding contribution of identity issues to diversity, and to the of their diverse backgrounds and circumstances. A challenges of diversity and of living together in cohesive community also displays strong and positive communities of multiple cultures. It is clear that people relationships between its members and similar life will continue to be mobile and migrate in huge numbers opportunities are actively promoted. So the joining of as economics, politics, climate and so forth, provide very different identity types and roles need not lead to incentives. The more marginalized and excluded groups a non-cohesive community, but what seems clear in will probably not join such movement over the next ten many European and North American contexts is that at years, constrained by their restricted toolkits and this moment in time, cohesion is not easy and requires opportunities. Such mobility will create new sustainable deliberate policies and actions. and diverse communities characterised by the much Bad experience within diverse communities has been greater proximity of different identity types. considerable. This has created stronger understanding Issues of the cohesion of these new communities, of, but also stronger positions on, the notion of ‘cultural together with a strengthened sense of protectionism pluralism’. In the wider Europe, experience of a number and resistance to further diversification will prevail. In of different measures and policy approaches following the UK, communities are seen as communities where racial and ethnic discrimination and conflict has there is a common vision and a sense of belonging increased awareness about various cultures, religions, 62 Future of Identity

races, ethnicities, attitudes and opinions which might thing. Above all, peoples will have to come to terms with In the next be thrown together in a single community. Responses new community defined identities, which would include decade we are likely to move have ranged from so-called ‘Multiculturalism’ (often Russian-Arab and European and may even challenge more quickly and criticised for reinforcing barriers with its emphasis on the rugby world to add London-Polish to the London- more widely respect and acknowledgement of differences) to either Irish in that league. Many other such identities will towards an integrated identity dialogue and actions aspiring to openness and challenge the shaping of communities, nations and for work and interaction between cultures in order to lead to long regions characterised not by multiculturalism per se, but social interaction. term change or the application of more formal rules of more by the coincidence and co-existence of multiple engagement with integration as the planned result. cultures where transcending difference and somehow helping to bring out the strengths (benefits) of living I suspect that in the next decade we are likely to move together becomes an imperative. more quickly and more widely towards an integrated identity for work and social interaction, although we Communication technology adds another layer of may see a serious reinforcement of difference in the complexity. A significant proportion of this emerging private world. What will appear as cohesive and generation may actively and deliberately develop parallel connected communities may well be quite identities - teenagers constrained by conservative family schizophrenic. This describes a community where contexts who use on-line dating and chat rooms to members play out distinctive identities depending on create alternative egos and behaviours in the virtual the community context they find themselves in. Though world. The potential challenge here may focus on a this might be a reasonably certain outcome, as yet we whole generation who fail to ‘comply’ with traditional do not really understand the nature of the challenge rules, or who collapse into an inter-generational crisis. that it creates. It may be that our communities are If what is certain is that communities of different stable and secure when times are reasonably OK but identities will continue to proliferate, and that such hugely fragile when exogenous threats appear or bad communities will increasingly have evident majority and times arrive. minority ‘identities’, what is not certain is how As I have implied, peoples in the joined-up and community members will react and behave. Many interrelated world of the 21st Century will need to come believe that unless the diversities and varieties are to terms with a plethora of pluralistic identities. In the harnessed and understood as community benefits, we future, to be a Brazilian or Asian, or indeed a young have a problem, as more likely than not, without this, global citizen, will mean being much more than one rigid communities will not be sustainable. Future of Identity 63

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Proposed Way Forward The main issues The main issues for us to address going forward are the challenges associated with the complex impact of for us to address identity and identities in communities. There are probably only three possible solutions. going forward are the challenges associated with Interventions by community (or national) leadership: community. Dialogue and openness should not be the complex These would create the formal rules for social identity about abstract notions of cohesion or integration, but impact of identity groups - based on the desired and negotiated shared about practical things. Communities can sit down and and identities in communities. values. So, this means introducing accepted and discuss real issues of concern and potential tension. enforceable laws that govern the behaviours within Economic growth and stability: Identities matter most diverse communities and promote community when difference is seen as threatening - and the cohesion. These would elevate community practices threats are greatest when times are bad. This is above difference, and create space for difference to probably the most plausible approach to mitigation of exist as difference. the worst case identity scenarios, though the extent to Changing the impact of identity issues by growing which it is a sustaining and sustainable solution is understanding and trust within communities: Finding questionable. Ultimately we can make difference less of ways of bringing people from different groups together an issue through prosperity and plenty, but we may not and encouraging collaboration between these people actually be addressing the core problem. helps create more comfort with difference. Recent work In my view there are two huge compromises that need suggests that contact is successful in bringing about to be made for solutions to gain traction and impact. more positive attitudes towards others, reducing prejudice and also building long-lasting friendships. The Firstly, we must have a commitment to an honest, true approach is based on the premise that everyone, account of the past. Intercultural exchange cannot be individually and as a nation, benefits from knowing, viewed without consideration of global movements and experiencing and working with other cultures, as the global communication. It is also often asserted that one focus with these projects are the commonalities that can only understand one’s own culture by looking at bind groups together, rather than their differences. other cultures. This requires being able to see one’s Intercultural Dialogue is one of the ways in which own culture from an outsider’s perspective to some people can be brought together for such collaboration. extent; using an historical approach can help. It is also important to stress the significance of the Second, diaspora matters. Diasporas provide a key link individual as well as the community, and the benefits of between identity, history and now. Engaging with dialogue between individuals and communities. There is diaspora space and identity strengthens understanding probably more to be gained from a culturally open and of how and where identity and difference are made and diverse way of life that involves interaction and dialogue remade. Through migration, peoples are dispersed with other individuals and groups than there is for a across many physical borders. Through these journeys, culturally self-contained existence. So, should diasporas also cross social, conceptual, and community leaders or the state set the agenda? Culture psychological borders. The diaspora and its location and identity are so deeply linked into our everyday lives becomes a distinctive place built by immigration, while that high degrees of openness are often more including the indigenous population as an integral part successful if they are generated from the individual or of a diaspora space. Identity in a diaspora space or 64 Future of Identity

location develops as an ongoing process that can intercultural dialogue can help with understanding Coming to terms change with situations and experiences. Again, processes within diaspora space. with the impact of identity and diversity requires us to renegotiate our approach to difference, to reject its Impact and Implications demonisation without abandoning it. Socially, identity has become a complex and central phenomenon, and with it diversity itself has become one of the single most important issues for human development. To accommodate diversity, we have to come to terms with multiple and changing identities. What we define and describe as our constituent parts, say in Europe or in Asia, become an integral part of ourselves. It is not just that these parts coexist in communities, but their ideas, art, literature, food and lifestyles now play a central part in shaping both the communities and the individual. In best cases, the difference is evaporating; and we must adjust to this radical change. If global economic and technological events, processes as difference, and for diverse communities to exist and change are creating difficulties for individuals to within their own parameters. This view would enable us cling on to traditional notions of identity (of both type to confront the challenge without creating all-embracing and role), and challenging our self-confidence and our and philosophical solutions. Assimilation, integration, ability to really understand ourselves, they may at the multiculturalism and the like either eradicate or reinforce same time be redefining our potential and the difference, whereas success (whatever that means) will opportunities on offer for human development. Take for require that minority identities retain some of their roots. example, the virtual world which radically changes the The path forward should be one which frames diversity notions of interface. This line of thought takes us quickly within shared values, where both majority and minority to the potential consequence of a world economic order cultures need to abandon the idea that a single truth which forms and massages identity types to deliver can be imposed on a plural society and where diverse majority identity agendas, whether for political or personal and social identity is mobilised as a good economic gain. The influence of Hollywood or rather than as a source of struggle. Inter- and intra- Bollywood, the globalisation of brands or the promotion cultural dialogue must create the space and opportunity of single-minded liberal democracy comes to mind. for reasoned disagreement and elevate co-existence in Coming to terms with the impact of identity and diversity the confined spaces of communities to a higher level. requires us to renegotiate our approach to difference, This requires us to move forwards from a place where to reject its demonisation without abandoning it. identities are contested and in constant rivalry. Communities must create space for difference to exist Future of Identity 65

Professor Richard Black Head of School of Global Studies, University of Sussex and Director, Sussex Centre for Migration Research Future of Migration 66

The Global Challenge Immigrant integration and increasing diversity in Europe and the North are significant questions for today’s Is there scope societies. However, I would like to focus on three other major challenges that are often ignored in public for relaxation of controls on debate. All rest on the assumption that migration is a challenge for poor countries too: migration, particularly where • First, most poorer people in the world are unable to • What is the role of education in giving poor people this can be demonstrated to migrate internationally, and so are unable to share in access to international migration opportunities, and have beneficial any benefits of international migration; and that even can policies on migration and education be combined macro-economic where they do, the ability of their home communities in a way that gives rise to a ‘virtuous circle’, rather effects on and families to benefit from this migration is than so-called ‘brain drain’? sending and receiving often limited. countries? • How can migrants’ remittances to poor countries - • Second, less visible forms of migration, such as which are currently greater in monetary terms that internal, temporary, seasonal or child migration international aid flows - be built upon to stimulate a usually offer much lower benefits, yet often carry wider process of development (whilst recognising greater costs for poor people. that these are private rather than public flows of capital)? • Third, migration to newer regional centres in the Middle East, Central, East and SE Asia or parts of Second, in relation to the less visible forms of migration Africa give rise to new challenges in countries that that poor people do participate in: have limited infrastructure or policies to deal with • How can such forms of migration be facilitated in immigrant rights, integration or ‘multicultural’ such a way that they deliver tangible benefits for societies in the Western sense. migrants and their families, as well as the wider All three of these challenges impact a larger number of population in sending and receiving areas? people, to a greater degree of significance, than the • Is it possible to drive down the cost to relatively poor ‘classic’ challenges of integration and diversity that people of sending relatively small amounts of money, currently hold such a strong policy focus in the global or to use such remittances to release capital ‘North’. If we focus on the consequences of migration constraints, for example through stimulating the for poor people and poor countries, then a number of microfinance sector? associated questions come into play that are of importance over the next decade. • What forms of exploitation and abuse do internal, temporary, seasonal or child migrants face, and how First, in relation to the exclusion or limited involvement can these be reduced or eliminated? of poor people from international migration, questions include: Third, in relation to those who migrate to emerging regional centres in rapidly growing economies: • Is there scope for relaxation of controls on migration, particularly where this can be demonstrated to have • Are there lessons that can be learned from European beneficial macro-economic effects on sending and or North American responses to immigrant receiving countries? integration and diversity, or are entirely new models required in other parts of the world? Future of Migration 67

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities The major Although international migration has increased over the last few decades, it has done so slowly, rising from ‘channels’ of just 2% to around 3% of the world’s population over the period from 1970 to 2005. It seems highly probable international migration will that this percentage will continue to rise slowly over the coming decade, or at least not fall, implying that by be the same in 2020 there will be more international migrants in the world than there are today. 2020 as they are today. In addition, although it appears that new migration flows However, what is much more uncertain is the way in - in terms of origins and destinations - are emerging all which sending and receiving societies might or might the time, it also seems likely that the major ‘channels’ not benefit more from the migration into the future. of international migration will be the same in 2020 as For example, the ‘benefits’ of migration are often they are today, with few new major ‘poles of attraction’, indirect and therefore neither clear, nor easy to predict. and few new emerging countries of emigration - Few in the UK would now dispute that migration has beyond the possibility of mass exodus associated with had a significant and positive impact on the range and economic or political collapse in a small number quality of food in restaurants across the country. Yet of countries. there are almost certainly wider benefits ranging from However, perhaps even more guaranteed is that there art and culture to entrepreneurship, technology and the will be a greater proportion of the world’s population quality of healthcare that are difficult to measure (and living in urban areas, both as a result of urban growth predict) but no less real. Such benefits are not limited (an excess of births over deaths in many of the to the UK, or to international migration - for example developing world’s major cities) but also as a result of the increasing presence of rural migrants in urban continued rural-urban migration. This process of centres can lead to the development of trade links urbanisation appears to be particularly strong in Africa, between rural and urban areas, as well as contributing currently the least urbanised continent in the world, but to social and cultural transformations. where the proportion of the population living in urban There also appears to be a growing interest at areas is expected by the UN to rise from around 35% international level in the potential benefits of migration in 2000, to around 45% in 2020 and 50% by 2030. for development, as encompassed in initiatives such as There is of course a degree of uncertainty even in the ‘Global Forum on Migration and Development’, a relation to the points above. For example, the recent major international initiative to promote good policy global economic crisis appears to have hit some poor practice in this field. Yet to date the translation of these migrants particularly hard, as they often work in initiatives into changed policy at national level is highly manufacturing and service industries that are orientated limited, with continued suspicion of migration and towards global export markets that have been mobility amongst many policy-makers. significantly affected by the downturn. The Chinese authorities have estimated, for example, that as many as 20 million migrant workers may return from urban to rural areas as a result of the crisis. If such processes were to turn into a medium-term trend, this could have a major downward impact both on rates of urban growth, and potentially on international migration. 68 Future of Migration

Proposed Path Forward In the field of migration, talk of ‘solutions’ is not straightforward. For example, the issues involved are complex, In the field of politically highly contentious, and research evidence is patchy. Indeed, there are few countries in which there migration, talk of ‘solutions’ is not is a mature public debate about migration, whether this is movement of poor people from rural to urban areas, straightforward. or immigration to new and emerging urban centres. There is some prospect that the development of new information on safe migration - in practice, many technologies might go some way to addressing the migrants and would-be migrants already use mobile problems faced by poorer people in deriving benefits phones extensively to plan their journeys, and to make from migration. For example, in the field of money the necessary contacts along the way to enable them transfer by migrants, significant advances have been to continue towards their destinations. made in terms of online and mobile-phone based Solutions involving more rational public debate based electronic transfers, sometimes to the benefit of very on better research evidence are perhaps less probable, poor people. The challenge is to make sure that these but still eminently possible, at least in some contexts. technologies are available to the poor, at low cost, and To take one example, in Bangladesh, a mature public functioning in ways that they engender trust that the debate is emerging on the causes and benefits of hard-earned cash of migrants is safe. migration for the country, and successive governments, However, in relation to all three challenges identified democratic and military, have taken at least some above, ‘solutions’ are most likely to arise from a more action, based on emerging research evidence of the mature public and policy debate, which in turn is likely significance of migration for the country’s economy and to rely heavily on the availability of robust research society. This has led to some relaxation on the rules for evidence. Yet there are many areas in which such travel overseas by women, with likely benefits in terms evidence is lacking. For example, although the number of reduced exploitation of women who were previously of international migrants in the world is now broadly forced to move illegally if they moved at all. A accepted to be around 200 million people, these are combination of research and lobbying by organisations figures for migrant stocks rather than flows; there is in such as the Refugee and Migratory Movements contrast no consensus at all on how many people move Research Unit in Dhaka has also led to the granting of across borders on a seasonal or annual basis, let alone citizenship to one of Bangladesh’s historic ‘migrant’ the numbers of people moving within their own groups - Urdu-speaking Biharis who moved to the countries. Such data is not easy to obtain either: country during colonial times or around partition, many borders are long, and often un-policed; few countries of whom had been confined to camp-like settlements have the kind of residential registration systems that since 1971. Meanwhile, the country’s most recent allow tracking of internal mobility, and in many societies Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper deals in depth with such systems would either be impractical or meet fierce both internal and international migration, highlighting a political resistance on civil liberties grounds. number of areas in which policy change might enhance the benefits of migration to the poorest sections of Technological advances are already proceeding fast in society. These include investigation of labour demand the field of migration, particularly in terms of migrant overseas, improved services to overseas workers, and remittances. There is the prospect too that the mobile attempts to find innovative ways to finance the initial phone in particular can become the source of trusted cost of migration by the poor. Future of Migration 69

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org We need Yet the potential for global impact here is surely more associated with managing competing interests. For compromise limited: out of a total of over 80 PRSPs completed in example, if new migrants arrive in a labour market, they between polarised nearly 60 countries since 2001, little more than a clearly may compete for jobs with existing workers positions that handful deal in any depth with the issue of migration (even if in some cases they do not, and in all cases, seek to classify based on robust evidence. Most simply identify they also contribute to demand which stimulates overall migration as migration - and especially the internal movement of the employment). Where such competition does emerge, ‘good’ or ‘bad’ - or between poor - as a problem, based on no hard evidence at all. it is likely to be felt most keenly by other recently-arrived positions that migrants, often at the lower end of the labour market. see migrants as There is probably no ‘best’ path forward on migration, ‘deserving’ or nor is a world ‘free of constraints’ realistic. Migration In this context, I would argue for a more limited goal: ‘undeserving’. provides opportunities to some, but also poses creating the space in which well-informed debate about challenges for others, such that the task of dealing with the benefits and costs of migration, and appropriate it is always likely to be beset by the constraints policy responses, is possible. Impacts and Implications Ultimately, the biggest problem in finding solutions to the issues and challenges raised by migration is the polarised nature of the debate. For many people, migration is a symptom of the failure of states or societies to provide adequate living conditions so that people can stay in their home areas. In contrast, for many others, migration is a ‘right’ that is limited by the actions of governments and societies that are xenophobic or racist. Yet surely a middle ground needs to be found. For debates, to see the phenomenon of migration in a many migrants, movement is an essential means of detached way, based on the best available evidence. securing a livelihood or a better life, but migration is The consequences of taking a more rounded view on often also an undesired, and undesirable outcome of migration are not easy to predict. poverty, underdevelopment, environmental degradation or armed conflict. Indeed, for an individual migrant, the Socially, a more open and tolerant attitude towards desire to escape difficult conditions at home, and seize migration (whether or not numbers of migrants actually opportunities elsewhere can easily go hand in hand. rise) could be at the cost of increased social tension, if that process is poorly managed or explained. But In this context, we need compromise between polarised equally, it could almost certainly contribute to improved positions that seek to classify migration as ‘good’ or social relations, if understanding of the benefits of ‘bad’ - or between positions that see migrants as migration and diversity can be clearly articulated. This ‘deserving’ or ‘undeserving’. That does, however, is as relevant a conclusion for migrant-receiving areas require policy-makers to rise above polarised public 70 Future of Migration

in the global ‘South’, such as commercial agricultural agricultural land for the production of biofuels); food Is migration a plantations in Côte d’Ivoire or the slums of capital cities, insecurity is a classic cause of distress migration; both choice? That is a key question. as it is for economically-advanced societies in Europe too much water (floods) and too little (droughts) can be and North America. associated with quite large migrations and displacements; the influence of climate change makes Economically, we still do not completely understand the these particularly difficult to predict into the future; broader consequences of migration, although there is growing urbanisation contributes to one of the major growing evidence of the benefits of migration both in challenges facing the world in the 21st century - how macro-economic terms, as well as for individual sending to deal with rising urban waste; migration throws into and receiving communities. question established identities, and contributes to the Finally, technologically, it seems clear that a more open creation of new, sometimes ‘hybrid’ identities; the use approach to migration could contribute to the of new technology by migrants, and to control migrants, stimulation of new technologies (such as the ‘skype’ raises significant issues to do with privacy; without and other VOIP technologies, used intensively by many connectivity and transport, migration doesn’t happen; families split across countries and continents) as well as with migration, connectivity and transport links can be to new uses for existing technologies (such as the stimulated and developed; migration is blamed (not growth of money transfer systems that use mobile entirely fairly) for decimating the health workforces of phones and the internet). many smaller or poorer nations; in turn, without migrants, Britain’s NHS and other advanced country In terms of impacts on other issues, migration is health systems would likely grind to a halt; cities are perhaps the archetypal cross-cutting issue, and as growing in the developing world, at least in part due to such, it arguably impacts on all of the other topics for migration; migrant remittances outweigh either this initiative. Thus: in the energy world, the extraction international aid, and/or foreign direct investment, in a of raw materials for energy often provides a stimulus significant number of countries and lastly; is migration for inward migration, but equally can lead to the a choice? That is a key question. displacement of populations in affected areas (e.g. through the building of dams, or conversion of Future of Migration 71

Dave Birch Founder, Digital Money Forum and Director, Consult Hyperion Future of Money 72

The Global Challenge Money has four basic functions, each of which can be implemented in a different way and so each of which From my are available for different types of change. To me it is reasonable to consider these four functions and look at perspective, as a technologist, it the global challenges to each of them individually and from there ask about the future. is the means of exchange that is Money as a unit of account is a hot topic as the US stores of value and how will choice impact fiscal most immediately subject to the dollar is being questioned as the denomination of the policies? Will we have transactions between non- pressure of rapid world’s reserve currency. Robert Zoellick, President of monetary stores of value? In some African countries, technological the World Bank, recently said that the US must “brace people already trade their means of exchange (the local change, itself” for the USD to be replaced in that role and, for currency) for a better store of value - mobile phone particularly since we are at one of other reasons, the UN Conference on Trade and minutes. Why not open savings accounts in gold, or oil, those inflexion Development has also called for the USD to be or food? There are many reasons for thinking, as points that come replaced with a new ‘global currency’ and not only as a Edward de Bono once suggested, that an ‘IBM Dollar’ along from time to time. unit of account. The question is with what? Should we be a better store of value than a USD. adopt the Special Drawing Right that is used by the IMF Money as a mechanism for deferred payment is seen or, if stability is a driver, should we not go back to gold as a prerequisite for society to function. It must support as the price of oil in gold is much more stable than the contracts between parties that include provision for price of oil in dollars. future payment. So will people and organisations Money as an acceptable means of exchange is already choose different payment mechanisms? Are there undergoing change. Money is useless as a medium enough reserve currencies to make choice a reality? unless it is acceptable to both parties in a transaction. Will we collapse back to bullion, or grain? If I agree to In many countries cash is falling as a proportion of pay you $1 million in a decade, can you continue to use transactions. In a decade will cash still be there? Why? conventional assumptions to value that offer? Might we eliminate money through ‘turbo barter’? Is From my perspective, as a technologist, it is the means cash replacement realistic and under what of exchange that is most immediately subject to the circumstances? Why now? Which technologies have pressure of rapid technological change, particularly come together to make this a point in time when the since we are at one of those inflexion points that come possibility of a change from cash to an alternative along from time to time. The mobile phone is about to means of exchange is not only credible but also become the most important means of exchange on a increasingly probable? global basis and the first technology with the potential Money as a store of value is also open to question. to replace notes and coins as the means of exchange How will people in the future have access to good for the ‘average’ person. Future of Money 73

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Is digital gold the Over the next decade, the technology timeline is one of the most predictable components of the Future future? Will the Agenda for money. As William Gibson commented in 1999, “the future is already here, it’s just unevenly Islamic market be a driver for distributed.” All of the technologies that will make a difference to any organisation’s business model in 2020 electronic gold? already exist. The right way to get ahead of the curve is not to try and imagine amazing new technologies from scratch but to simply look at how technologies are moving from the lab into the world and consider their impact in a reasonable structured way. New technologies that will be moving into the standard may be impractical or even undesirable, the mainstream of money, payments and banking over the idea of a new technology monetising the store of value next ten years include; connection technologies such as that is gold is a different proposition. For the ordinary speech recognition, near field communication, 4G person to be able to decide to hold Euros, gold or mobile networks and powered tags; disconnection mobile phone minutes simply by choosing a different technologies such as smart cards, voice authentication, menu on their phone does provide practical choice. face recognition and identity cards; and processing However, given free choice, would people opt for technologies such as the semantic web, contextual dollars over precious metal? computing, autonomous agents, printed batteries and Perhaps people would prefer to use more regional, virtual worlds. Of these, I see that it will be the local or even personal currencies. The next generation disconnection technologies that will shape the emerging of money may be more about so called ‘alternative value network. Therefore small improvements in these currency’ rather than a return to the money of the past. technologies will have a major impact on money. Local currencies have been attracting a lot of attention Unlike the technological view, the social and economic and there is history in this space ranging from Local pressures on money are much harder to determine. If Exchange Trading Systems, frequently derided as the average person in the street thinks that their ‘babysitting tokens’, to Time Banks and so on. In government is printing money round the clock so that it London another such currency has just been launched will inevitably lose value, then they would naturally want - the BrixtonPound. If regional, local or personal to hold gold or some other asset they think might hold currencies are to disrupt the financial system they need its value against inflation. This does not mean using real to include an alternative means of saving and lending, gold as a means of exchange but as a store of value. I not merely spending. A combination of P2P (peer-to- could envisage, for example, having a gold account. I peer) currency and P2P lending could very well deliver would still draw cash out of the ATM - but only enough the key elements of new kind of money. One factor to support transactions. Gold would be the store of nudging me towards this is the demonstrable collapse value and, as a consequence reduce the demand for in the trust of traditional banks: Many members of the currency as a store of value. Is digital gold the future? public, whether through financial calculation or outrage, Will the Islamic market be a driver for electronic gold? are now prepared to give alternatives a try. In the UK, A non-interest bearing 100% gold-backed electronic one such alternative of note is Zopa, the peer to peer currency would be attractive to many in times of lending exchange. economic uncertainty. While the return to the gold 74 Future of Money

Proposed Way Forward If we are to choose a path forward, let us make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction in the amount The strategic of cash in circulation: Willem Buiter (Professor of European Political Economy at the London School of impact of mobile phones in the Economics and Political Science and former chief economist of the EBRD) is not the first economist to think payment space is about getting rid of cash. But he may be one of the first to think about getting rid of cash in a technological yet to come. era that actually makes it entirely feasible. It wasn’t feasible when Hayek was thinking about it in 1970s, or when European banks were thinking about in the 1990s, but it is entirely feasible in the 2010s. Why? Well, there are some key technological developments that make Willem’s vision more than science fiction: in fact, some might say, make it more likely than not. These developments mean that we can overcome the main barriers to cashlessness - POS (Point of Sale) density and anonymity - in ways that can deliver more functionality than Willem might expect. To make something “cash like” then you have to be able The second objection is that losing the anonymity of to use it pretty much everywhere (you need a high POS cash would change the relationship between citizen and density) and you need to be able to make small state (and bank) in an undesirable way. I used to think transactions in private, without being tracked, traced that this was true, but now I’m not so sure. Thinking and monitored. There are two ways in which the about anonymity again, my experience back in the old technological developments of the last two decades days was that, for different reasons, neither the have addressed these key objections and have put us consumers, nor the banks, nor the retailers, nor anyone in a position to be able to take Willem’s ideas and else actually valued anonymity at all. So, if you put it in implement them. a tick-box, some people will tick it, but that’s because they haven’t really thought about it. Once they had The first is the mobile phone. We are already seeing thought about it, their interest in anonymity plummeted. the launch of mobile phones that can replace payment cards (there are 40 million of them in Japan already) and provide prepaid “e-money” accounts (M-PESA in Kenya, provided by mobile operators Vodafone and Safaricom, has over six million users already). But the strategic impact of mobile phones in the payment space is yet to come. Yes, mobile phones can be payment cards and that’s great. But mobile phones can also be payment terminals. Or to put it another way, you can use a chip and PIN card to pay, but you can use a mobile phone to both pay and get paid. Since I live in a country where, essentially, everyone has a mobile phone this means that it is absolutely feasible to eliminate cash altogether. In this coming world, if I want to pay you a pound, I will do it by text message or mobile Internet and you will know immediately that you have the cash. Future of Money 75

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications My central So, my central prediction for the decade is that the mobile phone will be used to transact non-fiat currencies. prediction for the Not much of a prediction perhaps because it is already happening. But the impact will be truly transformational decade is that the mobile phone and will, I would argue, primarily benefit the poor. will be used to transact non-fiat If the central problem is the cost of transactions for or fraud) would surely outweigh any marginal currencies. poor people, and the central solution is to use mobile convenience offered to drug dealers. And if an phones to make transactions (including non-fiat international terrorist were to go round Post Offices currency transactions) then the key compromise is buying a pre-paid card in each one and then sending straightforward to set out: We must encourage €100,000 worth of cards to their uncle up the Khyber easy-entry competition for low-value, inter-personal Pass, not only would it engender significant effort but transactions and allow not only mobile operators but it would also cost them a lot more than sending €500 other newcomers to deliver a service. notes (which the Royal Mail might well lose anyway). Why not take the €500 note as an example? Any More realistic limits for the Know Your Customer (KYC) prepaid instrument with a maximum daily transfer of and Anti Money Laundering (AML) protocols and €500 should be regarded as cash and regulated increasing competition in the provision of mobile globally much as the FSA regulates Electronic Money payment services would bring (literally) hundreds of Issuers (ELMIs) in the U.K. - but with higher limits on millions of people into the financial system. This would both balances and annual transfers. In Europe, there deliver a significant net welfare increase and make a will be an additional chapter in the Payment Services huge difference to the daily lives of some of the Directive (PSD) to create a framework for electronic poorest people. money institutions (alongside the frameworks for credit So, if we are to try and choose a path forward, let us institutions and payment institutions). So perhaps this make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction could form the basis of reciprocal international in the amount of cash in circulation by adopting agreement. In other words, anyone should be able to regulatory compromise to open up the space for buy a pre-paid card with €500 loaded on to it and then solutions and encouraging new thinking, particularly do what they like with it; use it on eBay or in Marks & around mobile phones, to deliver those solutions. In Spencer; send it to a grandson at University or back to fact, we might make the goal the substantial the old country as a remittance. eradication of cash, as previously suggested. Think about it - the immediate benefit to the poor (who Controversial? Perhaps, but possible, plausible and lose some 20% of their annual remittances to charges potentially probable! 76 Future of Money

If we are to try and choose a path forward, let us make it a shared goal to make a substantial reduction in the amount of cash in circulation 77

Mark Philips Interior Design Manager, Jaguar Cars Future of Transport 78

The Global Challenge We live in a world at the point of significant change: Around half of us recognise that we need to travel less, Of all nations, the just at the same time as the other half want to travel more. There is little doubt that, without a major technology US faces many of the greatest shift, those in the developed, world who are used to high levels of personal mobility, cannot all continue to obstacles but it behave in the same way as they have done in the past. While in the fast-growing emerging economies, with also could open burgeoning middle classes, many see the desire for individual car ownership as a credible and realistic aim. the doors to new solutions. We are at a tipping point between the two seemingly opposing drivers of sustainability and aspiration. Our primary challenge is in balancing these two. Much large scale transport change takes place over 20 at the same time proactively regulating for behaviour years rather than ten so, given these timescales, in the changing policies such as congestion charging, road next decade we face three major issues; providing pricing and speed control. This can be achieved a mass mobility to the growing global community in a much through designing transport that people want sustainable manner; changing the behaviour and to be part of as by regulation. actions of many in the developed world; and making • In terms of future choices for the post 2020 world, the right choices to set the scene for a practical a low- we already know the decisions that need to be made: carbon, global transport system after 2020. Whether to being electric, hydrogen or bio-fuel • There are few who would say that mobility in the likes powered, personal transport has to switch from fossil of India and China should be restricted or who would fuels and this has to happen sooner rather than later; deny citizens in such countries the same freedom of low CO2 options for aviation and shipping have to be movement that the US and Europe have enjoyed. found; and an accelerated rollout of integrated mass However most would agree that the route taken in transit systems has to occur. But, again, this has to the 20th century cannot be followed in the 21st. be achieved in a manner that attracts consumers. Implementing the policies and making the large scale Of all nations, the US faces many of the greatest investments required to provide sustainable transport obstacles but it also could open the doors to new infrastructures in every country involve both bold solutions. The American transportation system has decisions and deep pockets, but, without a major been under-funded and is difficult and costly to maintain: shift in the next couple of years, the long term According to the American Society of Civil Engineers it consequences on, for example, carbon emissions will will cost $1.6 trillion to repair critical infrastructure, be dire. Major transport solutions need to be green, never mind make the investments to accommodate affordable and desirable. future demands. While this might sound like gloom, it • In terms of the US and European lifestyles that should be noted that California, as America’s most provide the template for others to follow, we must influential state, raises its ambitions, so they become make visible and significant steps and soon. This is the benchmark for the US - and this has traditionally not just about shifting away from the SUV, three car had a catalytic effect on global standards. Over the next household culture often characterised in the media, decade, proactive local policies from Sacramento may but involves significant changes beyond switching to well continue to reach globally. Although other nations smaller, more fuel efficient vehicles. The developed are thinking well ahead of the US in transport policy, world, and the US in particular, must embrace public we should not ignore the significant influence that key transport options both within and between cities, and Federal and State regulations have around the world. Future of Transport 79

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Although the In each area of the transport sector, the choices available to us between now and 2020 vary considerably. aviation industry Some have little freedom to change and others have the potential for major shifts. attracts lots of attention, the real options for Although the aviation industry attracts lots of attention, the time to change the fleet, the likelihood of mass change available the real options for change available in the next decade impact in the next decade is limited. Given continuing in the next are relatively limited: Rising demand from both low- economic globalisation, demand for more not less decade are relatively limited. cost and premium passengers keen to fly shows little shipping between sources of raw materials, production sign of abating, airfreight traffic is forecast to double in centres and primary markets, will steadily increase. the next ten years and both Boeing and Airbus have Urban public transport systems covering bus, rail, tram healthy future order books. Even if reduced travel and taxi are all areas of government and industry focus: occurs in European and US markets, given the For example, the French government has recently competition between the three main alliances and the announced a €20bn investment in the construction of growth in Asian passenger and freight miles, a net the worlds’ largest automated rapid transit line circling global increase by 2020 is highly probable. Moreover, Paris, scheduled for completion by 2020. Delhi has as the average plane is in service for around 30 years, gained significant praise for switching its taxi fleet to the cycle time to change the fleet means that more LPG and Dubai is now promoting its newly opened fuel efficient planes, such as the Airbus 380 and the urban transit system. As cities around the world seek to Boeing Dreamliner, will take a good while to have replicate the models of modern mobility efficiency such significant impact. Other than the possible introduction as the integrated urban transport systems found in of bio-fuels into the aviation fuel mix, no major Munich and Vienna, we can expect further technological change will have impact in the next announcements of similar investments in the cities decade: While governments and media like to talk up which can afford it. the contribution of aviation to global warming, it is only responsible for 2% of carbon emissions and has no Turning to inter-urban transport, there is little doubt that credible alternative energy platform available in the China is the now pacesetter for change. Recognising medium term. As more people desire to fly, despite the both the challenge and the benefit in increasing the cost, for many in the sector, the next ten years will be speed of travel across the country, China is investing more an opportunity for improved efficiency of the over $1 trillion in expanding its rail network to overall system while continuing to compete for 120,000km by 2020 - the second largest public works customers on the experience. program in history. Like Japan, South Korea, France, Spain and Germany before, China is reshaping its The shipping industry is however a focus for potential landscape around train services by investing in a mix of change. Not only does it contribute more than 5% of both very high speed rail (350kph) and high speed rail global CO2 emissions, but inefficiency has been built (125-150kph) that will be the global benchmark for into the system. Over the next few years we can mass transit systems: Cargo transport and passenger therefore expect a convergence of existing GPS, transport is being separated, double track artery lines loading and navigation technologies to enable more are being electrified and transport hubs are been built efficient routing and speed of transit of the world’s in 196 cities. The decisions have already been made merchant fleet. However, although retrofit technologies and the ambition will be implemented. However, other such as high tech sails are much hyped, again, given 80 Future of Transport

countries, yet to take such bold steps forward, may not personal mobility. Although ten years is barely two design I see that luxury be able to deliver material change by 2020. cycles in the automotive sector, with the right support market buyers increasingly want and leadership, we have the opportunity to change the ‘better not more’. Given the above, by 2020, I see that further significant game in terms of both sustainability and aspiration. change can only really be achieved in the area of Proposed Way Forward Over the next decade, some predict that upwards of an extra 300 million people will gain access to their own cars. By contrast in the whole of the past century Ford only produced 90 million vehicles. Some consumers will seek to make choices based on sustainability issues but most will continue to aspire to have the best products they can. While the two are in no way independent, as more and more manufacturers join the likes of Renault and Toyota in announcing all new electric and hybrid ranges for launch in 2012, we, as individuals, will be attracted to rent, buy or lease the vehicles that not only meet our needs but also say something special: Because it creates the aspiration by which many other areas judge progress, the luxury market in which Jaguar plays a key role will continue to be a primary source of influence on consumer choice across the sector. I see that luxury market buyers increasingly want ‘better - this may not be a short term fad. In other markets, we not more’. I believe that this trend will increase as people are leaving the era of buying disposable IKEA-esque seek to buy items of higher quality, greater intellectual goods and seeking items that offer longevity and quality depth and perceived value. We will move away from the - a future heirloom maybe? This is, in some ways, a “Bling Bling” culture that has been with us for the last return to the values of previous generations. eight years. The decline of the SUV market is already An example from outside the transport sector that heralding a shift in the way car companies as such supports this is the Slow Food movement which is now are positioning themselves to express a more coming of age. Originally established in 1989 as a environmentally responsible message over just the car’s reaction to the growth of fast food, Slow Food focuses performance: The new luxury 5 door vehicles are not more on enjoyment, quality and the effect upon others SUVs but “fast backs” like the BMW 5 Series Gran - an interesting parallel to the use of transport. Turismo, Audi Sportback and Lexus LF-Ch Hybrid concepts which will have as much design influence in Although for many, perhaps the greatest statement of the US market as they do in Europe and Japan. one’s personal freedom and, ultimately, individuality is still the car. For others their buying tastes are changing Luxury goods buyers, I believe, will want to have items and the consumers’ definition of status and how a car that are visually more discreet: At the height of the credit features in their lives is shifting: A recent survey of 18- crunch, shoppers on New York’s 5th Avenue were 24 year olds of their top five most valued possessions disguising their designer label purchases in brown bags Future of Transport 81

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org We can clearly showed cars to be very low or non existent as a priority between the East and West, we can expect both new see the trajectory for this influential community. Members of this group global marques to emerge as well as new market of more efficient vehicles, many will one day be influencing how car companies cater for niches that encourage more vehicles to be more clearly of which may their needs, tastes and aspirations. Asian in values. The traditional cyclical product needs of be smaller that the US will be increasingly challenged by new luxury today’s. I believe, society will react to the presentation of a car markets: I will be interested to see how the success number of influences in car design - from increased and wealth growth in such countries as Russia and globalisation and greater international collaboration India will impact the tastes and trends in the west. between manufacturers, government policy and climate change regulation through to the shift in the balance of While we can clearly see the trajectory of more efficient wealth and the cultural influence of growing eastern vehicles, many of which may be smaller that today’s, markets. As globalisation continues, national identity we can also see the role of luxury setting the ambition and ultimate individuality will increase as a key factor in and attracting consumers across all platforms: Although design differentiation. Well recognised in such brands traditionally associated with large four door vehicles, it as Citroen which bring French values to the fore, may will be interesting to see if any luxury marques will also well be joined by new brands reflecting Chinese and migrate to smaller platforms. Indian values. Indeed, as the balance of wealth changes 82 Future of Transport

Impacts and Implications I see multiple implications going forward. Foremost, driven by the inevitable rise in personal mobility, it is clear Design trends that we will see more small cars. These will not only be new, mass access, low-cost vehicles such as Tata’s tend to last between 5 and Nano, but could also include some luxury marques: Aston Martin are reported to be currently developing a 10 years; for concept based on the Toyota IQ ‘commuter car’ named Cygnet. However, with advancing fuel and alternative designers, the power technology I am confident that luxury cars will still be able to offer a travel experience to the same ends of these trends cycles standards as currently enjoyed by consumers - except that this will increasingly need to be “guilt free”. This provide exciting is a challenge that car manufacturers must overcome in order to continue to offer true luxury which has always opportunities been a measure of spaciousness, refinement and exclusivity. For me, it will be interesting to see if any luxury for change. car companies attempt to apply their brand values to the urban commuter segment and similar historically “no-go” segments. If they do, will they be able to do so successfully with integrity and authenticity? With an aging population and the affordability of development of these systems. After all, the car is personal transport as certain mega trends, I can see a possibly the most powerful expression of freedom and huge increase in the introduction of new traffic control for a consumer product it offers the greatest possible systems including congestion charging and even a level of user interaction whilst delivering great personal pricing mechanism based upon the size of your vehicle convenience and enjoyment. Design trends tend to last as well as the power of your car. Although the concept between 5 and 10 years; for designers, the ends of of intelligent highways has been much discussed over these trends cycles provide exciting opportunities for the years, the reality has taken a long time to become change as much as they provide a challenge for main-stream. With more embedded intelligence such strategists to guide investments to capitalise on as collision avoidance already available in some high the opportunities. end cars, over the next decade we can see smart I believe that the next few years will be the time when mobility coming into place: Through combinations of new products are launched that successfully balances the GPS and mobile tracking of vehicles that are in sustainability and aspiration. Whether in small urban some markets today together with the need for wireless commuter vehicles or more efficient larger cars, traffic management systems in overcrowded mega- consumer choice will continue to play a major role: cities, smart cars and smart networks will converge to Matching together sustainability and aspiration deliver the first global phase of smart mobility. I believe provides equal opportunity across the whole of the that the consumer’s reaction to the effect on their transport system. freedom in such a world could prove pivotal to the Future of Transport 83

Professor Ian Williams Director of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment, University of Southampton Future of Waste 84

The Global Challenge Global waste production is predicted by some to double over the next twenty years. Much of this will be due Global waste to increased urbanisation and greater waste generation per capita as emerging economies grow. While some production is predicted by regions are aiming at creating zero waste ecosystems, others are yet to truly recognise the scale of the some to double challenge we face. over the next twenty years. Much of this Waste results in many problems. It smells bad, looks Enabling the appropriate treatment of hazardous will be due to bad and attracts vermin; it releases harmful chemicals wastes (including toxic, radioactive, clinical and increased into the soil and water when dumped and into the air biohazard materials), particularly close to or in densely urbanisation and when burned; around 4% of our GHG emissions are greater waste populated, urban areas is a major issue. In particular, generation currently from waste decomposition; and no one has we will need to address the unethical shipping of per capita as really yet come up with a solution for how to dispose of hazardous wastes to developing countries and the emerging some of the most toxic nuclear and industrial waste in subsequent adverse health effects suffered by those economies grow. a sustainable manner. who handle and treat these wastes. On average in Europe, each of us produces over 500kg As economic growth has traditionally led to more waste, of domestic waste each year. On top of this we to prevent the future doubling in global waste predicted generate huge quantities of construction debris, by some, we need to understand what are the industrial effluent, mine tailings, sewage residue and projected increases in waste volumes in emerging agricultural waste. Rich countries spend some $120 nations? What will be the associated attitudes towards billion a year disposing of their municipal waste alone waste management and what infrastructure and service and another $150 billion on industrial waste. provision needs to be put in place and where? We must devise sustainable and practical approaches to deal In the next decade, can we develop a practical and with the (inevitable) increasing volumes of waste from achievable global strategy for sustainable resource use? ‘emerging nations’, their attitudes towards and ability Making waste prevention the norm in a global society to manage their waste responsibly. dominated by consumerism will demand the creation of a zero waste society - but can we actually achieve zero Last, but certainly not least, we need to change all landfill and move towards this goal? It will mean individual behaviours and attitudes and get consumers simultaneously developing the appropriate and organisations to buy products made from recycled infrastructure, service provision and approaches to materials and/or sustainable sources: Easier in some facilitate behaviour change in multiple particular countries than in others. environments. It will also require us to genuinely decouple economic growth and waste generation on a global scale. Future of Waste 85

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities We have the Over the next decade, the increasing global population and the increasing economic growth of many emerging options of nations will create more waste. As well as putting a huge strain on resources such as fresh water and energy, accelerating the development of another billion or so people added to the planet in the next ten years will certainly demand more and so create Zero Waste more waste. This will include more food and energy waste; more household waste; increased electronic concepts, wastes facilitated by lower prices, new products and more choice; and more hazardous waste from industry creating better generally and an increase in nuclear energy specifically. To try and counteract this we will see less packaging sustainable technologies, and waste due to regulation and more biodegradable packaging; more pressure to reduce the environmental facilitating better impacts from waste; increased complexity in the waste stream and an increase in concerns regarding the geographical health effects of waste treatment. These are all visible trends today that will continue going forward. spread of these technologies, but this needs What is less certain are a number of political, We have the options of accelerating the development of investment. environmental, global economic and technological Zero Waste concepts, creating better sustainable factors. Political motivation and resource policy directions technologies, and facilitating better geographical are very unpredictable, especially after a downturn where spread of these technologies, but this needs the economics of waste recycling have become less investment. This is investment in appropriate viable than before. In addition, we don’t yet understand infrastructures, service provision and new approaches the impacts that global warming will have on to facilitate behaviour change in particular governmental decisions that impact waste management environments. We also have the option of creating new - what is the connection between waste generation / accredited global standards for management, treatment treatment and climate change? Can some waste and disposal of waste, but this needs cooperation materials be used to generate sustainable energy in between companies and countries. There are many order to address future energy needs? The impact and things we could do to fundamentally change direction implications of increased resource use on society, the and create less waste, but some question what we will economy and the environment are likely to be global and actually do. significant but the details are not yet fully clear. Although some point to examples such as Switzerland where there are currently high levels of waste recycling occurring due to local conditions, it is not certain that this will be sustained. At the same time, whether, or to what extent, waste quantities continue to rise in the developed world is not certain. Also, we don’t yet know how rapid will be the uptake of sustainable and smart technologies, such as nano-materials, which will in theory result in less waste. Despite an increase in hazard, high use of rare metals in IT hardware such as phones and PCs will increase but waste quantities may reduce. 86 Future of Waste

Proposed Way Forward By 2020, I believe that we can make a significant impact on the waste problem by taking some clear steps. Can we develop And I would aim high: we need major changes. mass low cost sustainable technologies on First off is the development of practical integrated incentives and / or legislation. But can we develop a global scale? sustainable waste management solutions that are mass low cost sustainable technologies on a global clearly aimed at the creation of a zero waste society. scale? This will require substantial knowledge transfer. This will mean the simultaneous development of the Better technologies offer money-making opportunities infrastructure, service provision and behavior change to and, in themselves, require less change to current enable the core elements to be aligned. This won’t be practice than the infrastructure and behavior pathway. politically attractive but will be necessary. Within all However, although zero waste strategies will be a environments we need to develop truly sustainable popular concept, many in business and industry will waste practices, policies and strategies. This will mean resist it just as unleaded petrol was initially rejected. moving waste management in line with a reduced Therefore the technology route should not be backed in carbon economy; developing appropriate and low isolation - we need the technologies and the integrated environmental impact collection systems for small re- waste management solutions together. useable/recyclable items (WEEE); and adherence to While these are the two main issues, there are also a approaches that satisfy regional self-sufficiency, number of additional actions that will have a quick, proximity principle, sustainability appraisals, etc. This short-term impact. These include increased includes sustainable management of minerals and enforcement, education and awareness for aggregates; prevention of food waste, and facilitating organisations and businesses in how to manage their resource recovery from wastes, as well as addressing waste, especially from those not conflicted by imminent resource depletion of key materials such as commercial gain; expansion of alternate weekly the rare metals used in IT hardware. collection systems in developed countries (e.g. Second is the development of mass low-cost recyclables weekly, residuals fortnightly); further sustainable technologies for waste treatment / legislation and / or economic disincentives on excessive transformation and pollution prevention on a global packaging; and higher involvement of both big business scale. We need to develop technologies and systems and the third sector in re-use and recycling. We also for the global prevention of pollution from the handling need to accelerate the willingness of individuals and and treatment of wastes, especially waste waters and organizations to buy products made from recycled industrial effluents. This will require concepts such as materials and / or sustainable sources. green chemistry and engineering to become mainstream rather than niche using appropriate Future of Waste 87

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Impacts and Implications The pace at There will be several direct consequences from seeking a credible move towards the zero waste society: which the rich world churns out rubbish has • Economically, increased costs are inevitable: being produced and were concentrating on better use. been slowing. Changes in feedstock for manufacturing, for But lately that assumption has been challenged. For example, will probably increase costs initially until the one thing, the pace at which the rich world churns out market adjusts and the use of recycled materials rubbish has been slowing. Between 1980 and 2000 becomes the norm. However given the long-term the amount of waste produced by the OECD countries impacts of not taking this route, most forward increased by an average of 2.5% a year. Between thinking organisations should see the benefit and the 2000 and 2005 the average growth rate slowed to return that will be achieved on the necessary 0.9%. That was just ahead of the rate of population investments. growth, but well behind the rate of economic growth. The OECD describes this as “a rather strong relative • Socially, both to enable a zero waste pathway and as decoupling of municipal waste generation from a result of it, there will be significantly greater public economic growth” awareness / knowledge of both waste management issues and also of the adverse health / environmental Reducing the amount of waste being produced makes consequences of poor environmental management. a great deal of sense. Some are trying to persuade However without a fundamental, behaviour change consumers to throw away less. One tactic is to make towards a more environmentally sustainable way of households pay by volume for the rubbish they life, any economic investments stand less chance of generate, rather than through a flat fee or through local having impact. taxes. Many places in Europe, America and Asia have • Technologically, we will see an increased use of adopted “pay-as-you-throw” schemes. “smart products” to track, monitor and manage Whether through such changes in consumer waste, as well as new nanotechnologies and low behaviour, increased financial investment or the carbon technologies that create less waste. development of new technology and policy, the world Increased investment, to ensure all that waste is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste streams can be processed, will also eventually drive society. Such a shift will not only benefit us by a move towards mass low cost sustainable addressing the growing waste challenge, but will also technologies. have a positive impact on how we potentially generate Until recently most people in the waste industry had our energy, how we grow and use our food and how assumed that it was impossible to reduce the amount we manage our water supplies. 88 Future of Waste

The world is in desperate need of a shift towards the zero waste society. 89

Professor Stewart Burn Stream Leader of Infrastructure Technologies, CSIRO Future of Water 90

The Global Challenge Unlike most of the resources we consume such as oil, rice and steel, there is no alternative for water - it is Today over 6bn the only natural resource with no substitute. Today over 6 billion people share the same volume of water that people share the same volume of 1.6 billion did a hundred years ago. Although two thirds of the earth’s surface is water, only 3% per cent of water that 1.6bn this is fresh water and, if you deduct the majority share that is locked up in the polar ice-caps and other did a hundred glaciers, we only actually have access to around 0.5%. years ago. Water consumption varies enormously across countries consumer products) that have been produced with the and regions and is similar to patterns in energy use of water from a local source. As global trade consumption. No surprise then that water and energy increases, this will result in further reduction in water share some of the same drivers and challenges. For availability especially in countries like China, where example, water follows a similar trajectory as energy in water consumption is already on the rise and sources of that its use increases relative to GDP growth. Today, water are on the decline. This challenge is compounded average annual water withdrawals for urban and when you recognise that population growth is primarily agricultural use in the US are running at around 1.7m occurring in regions where water usage per capita is litres per person: In China the numbers are less that a still relatively low and so has the potential to increase third of this. As the populations and GDP of the dramatically. This trend of increased water consumption emerging economies continue to grow, overall demand is adding major strains in key areas of the planet over for freshwater will exceed supply by more than 50% by the next decade. While today much of India, China, the 2025 and so the number of people living in water Middle East, Australia, Africa, the US and southern stressed regions will increase. Without decisive action Europe are already water stressed, by 2020 significant the imbalance between availability and demand will areas of Northern Europe and South America will be continue to escalate. added to the list. In a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario where average One major concern for the UN is how the increasing households’ income increases, in many countries, so scarcity of water will play out at national levels. Although does their direct domestic water consumption. In others the likes of Singapore and Australia have well- experiencing water shortages, demand management developed National Water Strategies, other countries has controlled this growth. Equally important is the are recognising the higher chances of conflict as indirect consequence of a changing lifestyle: As diets in different economies seek to secure resources. Some developing countries change from rice to meat so the believe that in the future we will again fight wars over demand for water rises as it takes more water to water not oil, and if you look carefully at what is going produce meat than it does to grow rice. Another indirect on in Israel, Egypt and areas of the Indochinese impact relates to ‘virtual water flows’. These are a result borders, the reality of this is all to evident. of exporting goods (both agricultural as well as Future of Water 91

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Options and Possibilities Sanitation is Options for countries with weak economies and poor access to resources are limited and so require different considered a key strategies going forward. Access to water here is a primary health need: Sanitation is considered a key global global issue and is a millennium issue and is a millennium goal in itself, but one in danger of not being achieved if new solutions for sustainable goal in itself, but water supply are not available. This is not just a problem in places like Africa but in Eastern Europe as well. one in danger of not being Living in Australia, I see that a country at the forefront managed. In a few countries such as the UAE and achieved if new solutions for of managing and responding to water scarcity is facing Singapore where desalination is economically or sustainable water a number of major urban water systems challenges: A politically viable, we are starting to see alternative supply are not projected 40 percent population growth over the next technical solutions for freshwater supply, but the mass available. quarter century will increase demand for water well global application of new breakthroughs is more than beyond the capacity of existing supplies. This as well as 20 years away. the increase wastewater flows and storm-water runoff Global drivers to reduce the carbon footprint will will present a significant number of urban water increase the cost of energy, compounding the problems that will need scientific solutions. The current economic and emissions risks associated with the urban infrastructure valued in excess of $94 billion was adoption of energy-intensive manufactured water mainly constructed during the 1960s and faces supplies and wastewater treatment. This driver will also significant deterioration. Management of the annual present opportunities for recovery of water, energy and revenue of $9 billion and capital investment of $4.5 nutrients from urban water systems. billion provides significant opportunities for major financial savings from small increments in efficiency. In addition we must recognize the impact of extreme These issues are not unique to Australia and either events on the complete water cycle, including water already are, or soon will be, relevant in other regions availability, use, resilience, infrastructure performance, across the world. etc. Potential changes in climate variability will further compound these issues by causing increased Although most of the challenges we face will be uncertainty in supply and engineering issues associated common across various regions, they will vary at a with bushfires, flooding and infrastructure failure. country level, as will the solutions to address them. We Whether or not you believe the different projections of therefore need to understand the total water cycle how temperature rises will impact in different parts of system that will account for alternative water and land the world, the high probability of more variable weather management options, including addressing changes to conditions and hence water availability will certainly add flow, nutrient and sediment regimes; energy use; more complexity. greenhouse gas emissions; and the impacts on rivers, aquifers and estuaries. With the advent of new water strategies, water quality and treatment will be more critical to maintain our Recent droughts, such as the one in Australia, highlight lifestyle. New risks are emerging (e.g. endocrine the vulnerability of existing urban water supply systems. disrupting chemicals, N-nitrosodimethylamine (NDMA)) Alternative investment in desalination and other potable that need solutions to be developed to ensure the purity and non-potable water supplies and their linkages into of our potable water supplies. With an ageing asset regional water grids may potentially cause issues with base in many countries, the integration of new supplies respect to water quality and public health if not properly from alternative sources and demand management 92 Future of Water

strategies requires us to manage changing flows and concentrations in sewer systems and treatment plants We need to demand profiles in water and wastewater networks. will require the development of new management embrace the concept of Blended water sources will influence water quality in strategies. The effects of these changes on exiting the ‘water water distribution networks, and higher contaminant assets are largely unknown at present. sensitive city’. Proposed way forward For the majority of us, the options focused on managing our existing water supply are the only ones really on the table for the next decade. Breakthroughs in desalination and point of use purification are still some way off. Developments in membrane technology that will realize significant changes are pushing in many different directions, for example companies such as “Aquaporin” are seeking to leverage learning from white biotech principles: Membranes mimicking specific natural processes could be one breakthrough that makes desalination viable across more geographies than is the case today. In addition, developments in membrane distillation could significantly reduce the energy costs associated with desalination. However, these developments are many years away. Therefore, considering the challenges ahead, three key elements need to be viewed together if we are to address them successfully: Sensible policies; (technology) solutions; and lifestyle/behavior changes. Emerging thinking about the evolution of large cities traditional local government view. demands the revisiting of the fundamental role of water Maximizing recycling of water from local wastewater and system design in sustainable city development. We need storm-water sources in the context of a water sensitive to embrace the concept of the ‘water sensitive city’. In city will require the development of efficient and reliable this context, the development of suitable decision- treatment options for environmental protection and making methods, as well as planning and management public health. In addition we need options for energy and processes, should be based on sustainability concepts. nutrient recovery during water and wastewater This drive for improved water management has led treatment, thus transferring waste streams from a companies such as GE and Siemens as well as disposal problem to a source of wealth. Examples of this newcomers like IBM to focus on innovating new can be found in the renewed interest in harvesting algae businesses around water. Similar to ‘clean energy’ for the production of bio-fuels and in the development of startups in the past decade, water is now also attracting microbial fuel cells: Clean water meets clean energy. the attention of investors and entrepreneurs from other areas to fund and found new companies. It is expected Furthermore, containing leakage rates to acceptable that the penetration of the “business world” in to water levels requires continual ‘active’ leakage detection that management will add a different perspective to how is expensive, labour intensive and slow to deliver: The water services are provided compared with the ability to automate leakage detection could provide a Future of Water 93

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Changes in step change in water loss control. Australia already uses It is also essential that we develop real-time behaviour will close to world’s best practice in minimizing leakage from management, operational and control systems which will require measuring our water distribution networks and utilities in the UK, France and greatly manage risk and increase public confidence in consumption the US are now focused on similar aims. The gains to the increasingly complex water networks. This will before we can be achieved are clear - the UK looses about 3.3bn litres require the understanding of system condition and manage it. of clean water every day. performance, detection of impending system deterioration and failure via networked sensors, and In a scenario of ageing infrastructure and growing cities, accurate prediction and detection of significant ‘events’. we need to develop new strategies for water, wastewater and storm-water systems. These must accommodate Lastly, planning is needed for the integration of new the inevitable population growth and increase resilience water sources and treatment processes into existing to climate change. At the same time, they should provide water supply and wastewater networks. In the context of sufficient flexibility to adopt a mix of centralized and an ageing asset base, we also require the development decentralized components where most appropriate to of optimal management techniques for new water meet both environmental and stakeholders’ needs. supply grids. Impacts and Implications The water debate has accelerated over the past 18 months and is now considered by several governments as the single greatest challenge we face. Since the issue is so intertwined with many other topics (energy, food, health), in fact with pretty much anything we do, whether in policy, technology implementation or change in life-style, it will have an impact on not only our lives, but the lives of generations to come. We must therefore “get it right”. In urban environments water scarcity might force us to Agriculture accounts for most of our water reconsider certain lifestyles and at the same time open consumption and, with developments in biotechnology, up opportunities for innovation in areas such as water by 2020 new crops will be introduced that are more capture, treatment, conservation and efficiency. efficient in their water use as will new ways to grow Changes in behavior will require measuring our water them. Concepts including vertical farming might find consumption before we can manage it and solutions their way into, or close to, urban environments if there such as smart metering will find their way into our is a real benefit both in terms of water recycling and homes. The questions are at what level and how lower energy consumption. granular will we require this to happen and who will manage the change? 94 Future of Water

Finally, businesses will soon learn more about water footprints supported by clear and simple Governments embedded energy and have a more mature messages to the public. Governments will undoubtedly may follow Australia’s and understanding of how to measure this in their products. play a role in this, and may follow Australia’s and other other countries’ Water will likely follow the same path - but this might be countries’ lead in developing national water strategies lead in developing introduced faster as a result of the prior experience with as well as developing capabilities to secure a national water strategies. CO2. Success depends on common ways to measure sustainable water supply that meets demand. Future of Water 95

Chris Meyer CEO, Monitor Networks Future of Work 96

The Global Challenge Not since the Industrial Revolution, when work migrated from fields to factories, from villages to company As income towns and cities, and from families to corporations, have the context, form, and nature of work been in such increases in India, China, Brazil, flux. Organizations now question how to make the best use of their people resource and educational and elsewhere, institutions seek to predict what skills will be required for the next generation. Individuals increasingly think in growth in demand terms of work not balanced with other priorities, but integrated into their lives. I see that the future of work is for skilled services will occur influenced by four unstoppable trends each of which will have significant impact. Taken collectively they disproportionately suggest the need for a fundamental rethinking of management, the way we work and what we work on: in these emerging economies. Geographic and Economic Dislocation: Networks Education: Life spans and careers continue to grow have reduced or eliminated barriers to entry to national longer as the half-life of knowledge continues to shrink. labor markets for many categories of work. This is A decreasing proportion of value will be added by particularly evident in areas such as IT (through repetitive work: physical machines will become more outsourcing), engineering (e.g. Innocentive tapping self-aware and adaptive, requiring less supervision; global talent pools), and medicine (e.g. tele-radiology). more importantly, information technology will eliminate As off-shoring increases, it puts pressure on wages services and middle management labor. Since the in the rich countries, and skills rise in nations with growth in ‘value added’ will be through innovation and lower per capita income. And, as income increases in creation, a major challenge will be to ensure that emerging markets such as India, China, and Brazil, education (both early and continuing) will support the growth in demand for skilled services will occur development of a “creative class” of all ages, in the disproportionately outside the developed world. same the way that public high school taught people to Together, these two effects lead to income stagnation work in large enterprises organized around the division in the rich countries and rapid wage and employment of labor. Since the educational institutions in the rich growth in emerging economies. Looking ahead, these world have proven very resistant to change, it is likely all point to equalization of purchasing power incomes, that innovations in primary and secondary education will segment by segment. Eventually this may inhibit come from emerging economies and, in university and globalization through backlash against growing ongoing education, from the business sector and self- displacement, increasing the pressure for barriers to organized networks. trade, and could put multinational corporations at odds Collaboration: Web 2.0 is teaching organizations about with their home governments. the power of collective work product, leading to Automation: Farming once occupied 60% of the U.S. “Enterprise 2.0,” an organizational form with workforce; now the number is 3%; manufacturing in porous boundaries, shared responsibilities, greater the U.S. now occupies about 15 million people -fewer transparency, and fewer mandatory rules and practices. than 10% of the workforce; and this number will In part, these organizations will likely help answer the continue to fall by 1.5 million per year through to education question, as jobs become more diverse and 2016. As networks and decision-making algorithms stimulating and the habit of looking outside one’s become more powerful, we can predict that services organization for answers becomes prevalent; the jobs will be displaced next. Although many offer ideas, challenge will be to discover how management will take it is difficult to identify exactly what will replace them. place in these adaptive enterprises. Future of Work 97

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org Will the open These four evident and ineluctable trends will impact us individual work lives are multiple and varied. innovation all in different ways and the implications for how our movement evolve to a point where know-how and capability rather than pure IP inthe traditional sense is the currency? Options and Possibilities Each of the four identified trends is significant, and they are neither mutually exclusive nor exhaustive. When considered together, they raise many questions, and suggest issues to monitor as the next decade unfolds. Three of the most pertinent are: What will global capitalism learn about work from the The context in which these issues will unfold will be emerging economies? For example: Will copyright and radically, but predictably, different from the past. I patent law be the framework for intellectual property (IP) believe the most important is the locus of growth. in the emerging economies? What is the future of full-time Today, there are over six billion people on the planet, employment? (In India only 7% of the labor force has about one billion of them in rich countries. In 2050, formal jobs.) And, how can incentive systems fairly there will be nine billion people - yet still only one billion measure, motivate and reward collaborative work? in current rich countries. E growth will be centered in the emerging economies, where the middle classes are Reverse Imperialism? How strongly will the rich economies growing rapidly in both number and consumption per resist globalization if the export of high-paying jobs capita. The requirements in the developing world for becomes more of an issue than the import of inexpensive basic products and services - food, health care, goods and services? As consumer and corporate benefits housing - will be the world’s largest growth opportunity. have acted as a catalyst, the off-shoring trend of recent Global companies will be seeking to engage these next years has served both the developed and the developing billions not only as consumers, but as human countries well, but will that continue for much longer? resources. They will be inhibited, however, to the IP rights in an information economy? IT has reduced the degree they bring with them business models and marginal cost of IP to essentially zero. Collaboration in the practices from the rich world. human genome project and many other bioscience Technology innovation will clearly continue to change projects (the sequencing of the SARS virus, for example) the business environment: Software will continue to is demonstrating the power of open access to new erode white collar and professional work. It has already information. So, how will incentives for creative work de-skilled many professions - spreadsheets make change to recognize these two powerful economic shifts? everyone a financial analyst, i-Phone-based software Will the open innovation movement evolve to a point where can now make everyone a solar panel installer. And know-how and capability rather than pure IP in the robots being developed in Japan help take care of the traditional sense is the currency? If so, how will aged: Automated people-care will be big business.. In organizations monetize collaboration? 98 Future of Work

one recent study, half an hour with Paro, a robot chains, transportation systems, utilities, and security Education will be resembling a fur seal, improved the brain function of systems functioning. industrialized - broken into Alzheimer’s patients more than an hour of music small, repeatable The technological advancement pattern of the Industrial therapy. Innovations in preventative healthcare will tasks and Revolution will write its next chapter with information reduce the very high projections of growth in this thus increasingly technology. Once again, progress will reduce manual deskilled. industry. Next, workflow automation and smart labour, save time and increase wellbeing, but will also infrastructure will assume much of the surveillance reduce traditional roles and limit opportunity for some. and coordination work done to keep supply The Way Ahead Industrial technology was born in the UK and grew up in the US. Information technology was born in the US, and is growing up in the emerging economies. The US will fall behind for a period, while it learns to adopt the approaches developed elsewhere. What are these? Looking globally I see four pathways that will influence work by 2020. Digital Natives in different countries will work together trained using on-line tools and experiences. In addition more effectively than the connected and the both schools and corporations worldwide are unconnected within a single country. Digital Natives experimenting with simulations and games as training may find new protocols arising from social networking tools. In the US, MIT has put much of its syllabus on- behavior, and tele-presence technologies will improve in line and home schooling is growing more popular, and cost and performance. It’s possible that global home schoolers are sharing materials and resources. collaboration could become much more effective None of these practices amount to an important major through the development of a range new IT solutions - global trend yet, but they have the potential to disrupt as it has through email. Cisco, Google, Infosys, the way education, training, and feedback and Microsoft, IBM and the like are all placing big bets in evaluation are done. Education will be industrialized - these areas. broken into small, repeatable tasks and thus In the next decade, I also foresee a revolution in our increasingly deskilled. It will also become approach to education. In Singapore, teachers have “informationalized” - benefiting from training tools that been sharing and improving one another’s lesson plans are owned and improved by their “Web 2.0” user for a decade. In India, “para-teachers” are being trained communities. Success could address both the “life-long to teach focused elements of the curriculum under the learning” challenge in the rich world and the need to supervision of senior teachers, one teacher for ten rapidly educate tens of millions of people in the para-teachers; what is more, the para-teachers are emerging economies. Future of Work 99

What do you think? Add your views to the global perspective on www.futureagenda.org If I had to put As well as these pathways I can imagine two more Human beings are biologically tribal - consequently money on it I speculative shifts will, both enabled by advances in some amount of face-to-face meeting is required for would suggest the industrialization of collaboration technologies. collaboration among people who don’t know one information work another. But time zones are inescapable - global The first one of these concerns the development of is certain, and will cooperation requires that most communication be affect pretty much North-South vs. East-West trade routes. As asynchronous. And language barriers, though lower every business. development accelerates in the southern hemisphere than ever before, persist. As in the North-South and communications and collaboration technologies dimension outlined above, these forces could lead to improve, the attraction of doing business in the same increased in-country partnerships. As the outsourcing time zone will become powerful. No longer will 24/7 trend is mitigated by rising costs of employment in the be the only way to link between the centers of emerging economies, we may expect to see an resource: Europe will increasingly work with African increasing shift from off-shoring to on-shoring of jobs people resource pools, and the North - South America in which ongoing relationships are important. This will working dynamic will grow. not decrease, however, the development of global The second shift that I see having increasing impact supply chains and the tapping of pools of capital - concerns individuals’ predispositions to work together. financial and human - wherever they exist. Impact and Implications If I had to put money on it I would suggest the industrialization of information work is certain, and will affect pretty much every business. A revolution in education is less probable, but this would affect the most people globally, make a difference to their entire lives, affect nations politically and economically, and represent a force for equalizing income around the world. Were I in charge and free from all constraints I would Compromises have to be made so I suggest, with an announce a plan for eliminating intellectual property own-country perspective, at least three articles of faith rights over the next 25 years. I would require corporate in US business should be re-examined: The focus on boards to have some form of representation of each individuals as the source of organization performance; stakeholder. I would develop performance measures the primacy of shareholders over other stakeholders; that reflect performance in non-financial dimensions. and the value of competition as currently practiced in Perhaps most importantly I would fund a global effort assuring efficient resource allocation. on the scale of the Apollo Program to share progress Pragmatically, if all the trends discussed above in education globally. And, in the United States, I would go forward, it is possible that there will be a institute a two-year requirement for national service with bifurcation of business systems - a world of utilities one year spent outside the country. 100 Future of Work

(telecommunications, supply chains, manufacturing and hospitality), based on positive-sum collaboration and I would fund a natural resources), patterned on the capital-intensive open sourcing. But beware: these two worlds may global effort on the scale of the industrial economy, in which business will be a zero- have difficulty dealing with each other because of their Apollo Program sum game, a fight for market share and dominance; fundamental differences around trust and value. to share progress and a world of experiences (software, media, in education globally. Future of Work 101

Biographies Authenticity - Diane Coyle OBE Diane is founder of consultancy firm Enlightenment Economics, a member of the BBC Trust and a Visiting Professor at the Institute for Political and Economic Governance, University of Manchester. Her latest book is called ‘The Soulful Science’ and is about what economists really do and why it matters. The book surveys key developments in economics during the past 20 years, advances which have revolutionised economists' ability to analyse society and improve policies. Her previous bestseller was ‘Sex, Drugs and Economic’ which takes a fun look at the application of economics to all sorts of subjects. Earlier books including 'Paradoxes of Prosperity' and 'The Weightless World' address the economic and social impacts of new technologies. Choice - Professor José Luis Nueno José is a Professor in the Marketing department at IESE. He received his Doctorate of Business Administration (Marketing) at Harvard University, Master of Business Administration at IESE and Degree in Law at the Universidad de Barcelona. His areas of interest include the media and entertainment industry and retail and distribution strategy. He has published articles on globalization, marketing of consumer goods and luxury goods and relationship marketing. He has taught at a several business schools, including the elective course of Industrial Marketing at INSEAD, France as well as other management programs. He was a visiting professor at the University of Michigan and in joint programs with the University of Michigan and IESE in Vevey, Switzerland and Shanghai, China. In 2003 he was part of the faculty team for the Harvard Business School AMP Middle East Program and the Strategic Program for Retail Managers. He is a member of the Boards of Directors of a number of leading international companies. He is also a corporate consultant and advises national and international corporations in the area of marketing and strategy. Cities - Professor Richard Burdett Ricky is Centennial Professor in Architecture and Urbanism at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Director of the Urban Age Programme and founding director of the LSE Cities Programme. He recently co-curated the Global Cities exhibition at the Tate Modern in London. His latest appointment is as Principal Design Adviser for the London 2012 Olympics. Previously he was architectural adviser to the Mayor of London from 2001 - 2006, a member of the Greater London Authority's Architecture + Urbanism Unit and sat on the City of Barcelona's Quality Committee. Ricky was founder of the 9H Gallery and the Architecture Foundation in London and has been a key player in promoting design excellence amongst public and private sector organisations in the UK and Europe. He was Director of the 2006 Architecture Biennale in Venice on the subject of ‘Cities: architecture and society’ and was chairman of the Jury for the 2007 Mies van der Rohe Prize. Connectivity - Jan Färjh Jan is Vice President and Head of Ericsson Research. He received his MSc in telecommunications at the Royal Institute of Technology in Stockholm in 1985. After his graduation he developed signal processing algorithms for airborne radar systems. In 1990 he joined Ericsson and started to work with radio access technologies. He was part of Ericsson's first activities in WCDMA and became manager of the unit responsible for radio access research in 1996. The research performed in this unit has contributed to the evolution of WCDMA, HSPA and 3G LTE. In 2007 he became Head of Ericsson Research. Currency - Dr. Rajiv Kumar Rajiv is Chief Executive of ICRIER, the Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations. He is also on the Central Board of Directors of the State bank of India, a former member of the India National Security Advisory Board and a member of the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India. Previously he has held the positions of Chief Economist at the Confederation of Indian Industry, Economic Advisor at the Department of Economic Affairs, Ministry of Finance and Senior Consultants in the Ministry of Industry in the Government of India. Rajiv as a PhD in Economics from Lucknow University, a DPhil in Economics from Oxford University, has written several books and publications and contributes regularly to newspapers and journals. Data - D J Collins D J is Head of Corporate Communications for Google Europe. He has spent more than 10 years working in public relations and before Google worked with a wide array of clients, including one of the UK’s largest trade unions. He became one of the youngest ever Heads of News whilst working for the British Government. Biographies 103

Energy - Leo Roodhart Leo is the 2009 President of the Society of Petroleum Engineers. Prior to this he coordinated GameChanger - Shell’s corporate Strategic Innovation program that identifies and sponsors the development of new breakthrough technologies in the context of the various technology futures for the oil industry. Several new businesses and a multitude of new technologies have been created in this new process. Leo holds an MSc in chemistry and a PhD in Mathematics and Physics from the University of Amsterdam. He is an Associate Fellow on Strategic Innovation at Templeton College and Said Business School, University of Oxford. Leo has worked for Shell for 29 years in various functions including research and development, exploration and production, business development and innovation in The Netherlands, Canada and the UK. Food - Jim Kirkwood Jim is Vice President R&D at the Center for Technology Creation at General Mills where he leads the Corporate R&D function in the development and/or acquisition of food product, process, package and Health & Wellness technologies in support of all GMI business units. Previously he led R&D for the General Mills Snacks Division, driving growth through innovation in the Granola Bar, Salty Snack, Popcorn and Fruit Snacks categories. Before that he was Director of R&D for Refrigerated and Frozen Baked Goods for the Pillsbury Company. In his food career he has also worked with HJ Heinz, Kellogg and Quaker Oats. Jim has an MBA from the University of Chicago and a BSc in Chemical Engineering from Purdue University. Health - Dr Jack Lord Jack is CEO of California-based Navigenics Inc., and was previously with Humana, Inc., where, as Chief Innovation Officer and Chief Executive of Humana Europe, he led the development of new products and services to transform the healthcare system and support personal health needs. Before Humana, Jack was president of Health Dialog, where he helped pioneer e-enabled health care and promoted shared decision making between doctors and patients. His earlier career included executive positions with the American Hospital Association, the Anne Arundel Medical Center in Annapolis, and Sun Health in Charlotte, NC. Jack is a board-certified forensic pathologist with more than three decades of experience in medical practice. After receieving his medical degree from the University of Miami in 1978, he launched his medical career with the U.S. Navy, where he served in leadership positions for the Navy’s Surgeon General and Secretary of the Navy. He is currently on the Advisory Board to the Director of the CDC, the National Biosurveillance Committee, and the World Economic Forum’s Global Agenda Council on Chronic Disease and Malnutrition. He is also a director for Stericycle and Dexcom. Identity - Professor Mike Hardy OBE Mike leads the British Council’s work in intercultural dialogue - one of three programme areas which define British Council’s work in cultural relations. Intercultural Dialogue combines interventions developing the capabilities of young people as leaders and community participants, worldwide, with volunteering and schools exchanges projects. Between 2004 and 2008, Mike was Country Director for the British Council in Indonesia where, among other activities he supported the development of the UK- Indonesia Islamic Advisory Group and launched new programmes in community leadership following the Tsunami in North Sumatra. Before Indonesia, Mike was a member of the British Council’s senior management team where he directed global contracts in international development. Between 1997 and 2000 he directed regional project work for the Middle East from Cairo, Egypt. Prior to the British Council, Mike was Head of Economics and Public Policy at Leeds Metropolitan University and Professor of International Business at Central Lancashire. Migration - Professor Richard Black Richard is Head of the School of Global Studies at the University of Sussex, Co-Director of the Sussex Centre for Migration Research, and Director of the Development Research Centre on Migration, Globalisation and Poverty. His work focuses on the study of international migration, including forced migration and post-conflict return, and related social and economic transformations. He is presently researching and writing on the development of public policy on migration and development, especially in poor countries, and on immigrant integration in the UK, particularly relating to recent East European and African migrations. Richard is also co-editor of the Journal of Refugee Studies, the leading international interdisciplinary journal in refugee studies, is currently serving on the Advisory Board of the Civil Society Days for the Global Forum on Migration and Development 104 Biographies

in Athens and is an advisor to the Global Development Network project 'Development on the Move'. Richard completed his undergraduate degree in Geography in 1986, his PhD in 1990 and came to Sussex in 1995 from King's College London. He has worked as a consultant for a number of international organisations including the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and the European Training Foundation. Money - Dave Birch Dave is Founder of the Digital Money Forum and a co-Founder of Consult Hyperion, the IT management consultancy that specialises in electronic transactions. He is currently the Visa Europe Research Fellow in Payments at the Centre for the Study of Financial Innovation in London, who label him "one of the most user-friendly of the UK's uber-techies". He was also described by The Independent newspaper as a "grade-A geek", and by Financial World magazine as "mad". Dave is a member of the editorial board of the E-Finance & Payments Law and Policy Journal and a columnist for SPEED. He has lectured on the impact of new information and communications technologies, contributed to publications ranging from the Parliamentary IT Review to Grocery Trader and authored more than 100 Second Sight columns for The Guardian. He is a media commentator on electronic business issues. Transport - Mark Philips Mark is Interior Design Manager working at Jaguar's Advanced Design Studio. He led the interior design of the critically acclaimed new Jaguar XJ and his interior design for the 2001 R-Coupe concept car established Jaguar’s current design language. Mark’s work also includes the interior designs of the XK8 and XJ Concept-8 show car. Between 2001 and 2003, he led Jaguar design at Ford’s Ingeni Studio in Soho, London. Previously, Mark worked at Rover and Lincoln in Detroit. Waste - Professor Ian Williams Ian was the founder and Head of the Centre for Waste Management at the University of Central Lancashire and is now Director of Education and Deputy Head of the School of Civil Engineering and the Environment at the University of Southampton. He is a Chartered Chemist with a wide range of academic interests, including wastes minimisation and management; environmental chemistry and pollution; and public perceptions of environmental issues and their implications for environmental protection, public policy and society. Ian has an international reputation for research in two areas: urban environmental quality and wastes management. He has published two books and over 60 peer-reviewed papers on waste and environmental issues, as well as over 80 commercial project reports. He has held positions on the scientific and organizing committees of several international conferences and is a Trustee of the charity Waste Watch. Water - Professor Stewart Burn Stewart is Stream Leader of Infrastructure Technologies at CSIRO in Australia. His work includes fundamental research on the deterioration and management of urban water networks and the development of asset management, planning, prioritisation and risk assessment systems for these networks. He is also involved in developing methodologies to allow the transition of existing systems to more sustainable states through the adoption of decentralised technologies and the development of water treatment technologies to recover resources from wastewater. Stewart was instrumental in establishing CSIRO's Urban Water research area where he has an interest in water, wastewater and storm-water research. He is an Adjunct Professor at the Institute of Sustainability and Innovation, Victoria University, Victoria, Australia, is chairman of several Australian and international standards committees and is also Editor for both Water Science and Technology and Water Asset Management International. Work - Chris Meyer Chris is Chief Executive of Monitor Networks. His mission is to anticipate and shape the future of business. He has pursued this goal as entrepreneur, author, leader of a think tank, consultant, and executive. Products of this mission include three books: Blur: The Speed of Change In the Connected Economy; Future Wealth; and It’s Alive: the Coming Convergence of Information, Biology, and Business (all co-authored with Stan Davis) and articles in the Harvard Business Review, Sloan Management Review, Fast Company, Time, The Wall Street Journal, Business Week, and others. In 2004, Chris joined the Monitor Group to lead Monitor Networks, a business based on the ideas about human capital markets. Monitor Talent, founded by Monitor Networks, has now built a network of 75 thought leaders in business, science, and public policy; Chris curates Now New Next, the Monitor Talent blog on Harvard Business Digital. Biographies 105

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