Global nuclear future


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Fast Nuclear Reactors and Global Energy Future. Findings of the Future Designing Research Group report.

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Global nuclear future

  1. 1. Fast Nuclear Reactors and Global Energy FutureAlexander Bychkov,Research Institute of Atomic Reactors, Dimitrovgrad, RussiaSergei Pereslegin, Elena Pereslegina, Nikolay Yutanov,Ekaterina Yutanova, Artiom Zheltov,Future-Design Research Group, St.Petersburg, Russia
  2. 2. World energy consumption is growingWorld energy consumption isgrowing exponentially.By 25-30 years it is likely todouble.
  3. 3. Signs of Global Energy Crisis •Global delay in power generation capacities commission •Inadequate location of existing capacities •Power networks getting old Energy deficit by 2010
  4. 4. Local / regional power shortage scenario, part 1 Stage 1: Power-hungry projects cancelled. Explained with «countering global warming», «wise self- limitation», «environmental concerns», «sustainable consumption» Stage 2: Business and development slowdown. Explained with «household consumption reduction campaign», «smart consumption management», «penalties for excessive consumption» Causes economic growth slowdown, financial system challenges, problems with social security system
  5. 5. Local / regional power shortage scenario, part 2 Stage 3: State policy fail. Power system experiences failures and blackouts. Power-saving policies fail. The state tries to take economy out of depression with non- economic means, e.g. war or global project.
  6. 6. Ways and means, costs and ends of energy savingSaving pattern “Innovative saving” “Administrative saving” “Structural saving”Policies “Smart grid” and “smart housing”, Legislative reduction of industrial and household consumption, Switch to small-scale generation technical reduction of household new legislative energy-saving standards. and local networks. Expansion of and industrial appliances cogeneratio n systems. consumptionOpportunities 5 – 10% energy savin g coupled with 13-15% energy saving, according to UK and France Heating costs and n etwork 25 – 50% increase in goods and transmission losses redu ction. services costs Joint system of heat and power generation.Feasibility 10% saving, max. At your own risk An extremely costly projest to reshape the entire economy and lifestyle, min 50 years to accomplish.Risks and Inflation in economy, power system Life quality decrease , production and consumption reduction, Local heating and power crisi s.Consequences instability, blackouts and system disease and mort ality rates growth. Social unrest up t o breakouts Local abandoned territories and failures. of violence and civil war. Unavoidable massive blackouts and some abandoned cities. infrastructure failure s.
  7. 7. Types and models of power generation• By physical process: Heat / Flow / Nuclear• By consumption pattern: Local / Baseline / Extended / Universal• By type of consumed resource: Physically Inexhaustible / Almost Inexhaustible / Exhaustible
  8. 8. Types and models of power generation, continued Universal Extended energy Baseline energy Local energy con sumption consumption consumption consumption Solar Power, Wind Power,Physically Hydro Power, Tidal Power. Solar Power, Wind Power, HydroInexhaustible Wind Power Power, Geothermal Power.resources Nuclear power with ThoriumAlmost Shale gas, Peat, Biofuel, and other Coal and Nuclear power Coal and Nuclear powerInexhaustible Low-Calories Hydrocarbon Power wirh U-238 wirh U-238resources types Oil & Gas Power ,Exhaustible or Oil & Gas Power , Oil & Gas Power Nuclear power with U- Oil & Gas PowerDeficit resources Nuclear power with U-235 235
  9. 9. Methodology for evaluation of power generation The methodology used for long-term evaluation of power generation types encompassed the following factors: • General type of generation • Primary consumed resources - those directly used for generation (e.g. coal burnt) • Secondary consumed resources - those indirectly used for generation (e.g. territory for hydropower reservoir) • Direct primary costs and charges - e.g. nuclear waste • Indirect secondary costs and charges - e.g. increased lung cancer rate for coal power • Virtual (non-existing) costs and charges - e.g. greenhouse gases
  10. 10. Evaluation of power generation typesRanking Generation types Feasibility 1. Advanced Nuclear Energy Development of these technologies is imperative. (closed nuclear fuel cycle) 2. Solar, Oil, Wind Power The intentions for development are high. Development of these technologies is very probable and desirable. 3. Tidal, Gas, Geothermal There are certain intentions for development. Power Development of these technologies requires special policies and is generally probable. 4. Traditional Nuclear Power, No intentions for development. Coal Power Development of these technologies requires special policies and is Litter Burning generally improbable. Though some local capacities might remain. 5. Brown and Lignite Coal, Further development is impossible and undesired. Although some local Peat, Shale Power capacities might remain, its general trend is towards reduction and niche markets. 6. Biofuels Socially harmful technology, not to be used by any means. Its limitation and abandonment are inevitable.
  11. 11. Scenario-building methodology
  12. 12. Baseline global energy scenario features• Oil would remain a key resource. Its overall consumption would grow, but relative consumption is likely to decrease.• Gas price would remain linked to oil price• Coal consumption would outrun oil and gas.• Low-calories fuels consumption would decrease, although its positions would remain at local level.• Flow Power (e.g. hydro, wind and tidal power) would develop, although its general share would remain moderate.
  13. 13. Baseline global energy scenario features, continued• Slow-neutron nuclear power generation would be constrained by high generation costs, that contain costs of nuclear waste utilization and storage.• Therefore, nuclear power would inevitably split into traditional (slow-neutron) and innovative (fast neutrons, closed fuel cycle) power generation.
  14. 14. Global Nuclear power scenarios:“Energy-saving Future”• Inertial, surprise-free scenario• No political will for changes is necessary.• Energy-saving policy continues until social system crisis.• Extensive development of nuclear power• Nuclear waste decommissioned through traditional water storage, the amount of waste grows with time.
  15. 15. Global Nuclear power scenarios: “The Coal Renaissance”• Traditional surprise-free scenario. Implies technology and civilization rollback.• Extension of the “golden billion”, with decrease in its privileges. Problems with social security and pension system.• Requires political will for certain changes.• Oil and gas remain key fuels, but get pressured out of baseline generation.• The role of flow power (primarily wind & sun) is growing.• Nuclear power generation is growing. Radiophobia looses its social importance.• “Wet” and “dry” treatment of radioactive waste are of equal importance.
  16. 16. Global Nuclear power scenarios: “The Nuclear Breakthrough”• A breakthrough scenario for global energy.• Implies great political will and strategic approach.• New Technological Platform in nuclear power integrates slow and fast neutron reactors.• Closed fuel cycle, “dry” treatment of waste and molten salt advanced burner reactors.• The problem of nuclear waste is solved.
  17. 17. New Technological Platform in NuclearPower• Generation capacities• Nuclear waste disposal• Nuclear power expansion• Changes in primary resources consumption structure for nuclear power
  18. 18. Future energy consumption structure changes 2005 Forecast, 2050
  19. 19. The problem of strategic choice• Focus resources on Generation 3+ or through them to development of Next-gen reactors?• Existing economic studies reduce profitability of closed- cycle FBR.• The first nuclear technological platform with recycling and minimized nuclear waste would become a “de facto” standard.• It would make traditional reactors technologically outdated and commercially distractive.
  20. 20. The Prisoners Dilemma and New Nuclear Race  If nobody develops FBR and closed fuel cycle, current state in global energy retains further.  If anybody creates New Technological Platform, and others do not, the winner gets the entire market.  If all actors create various versions of New Technological Platform, global nuclear energy gets boost, but hard competitions starts. The Prisoners Dilemma would give start to New Nuclear Race in design of next-gen nuclear power systems. NB: By October 2010 The New Nuclear Race has begun.
  21. 21. The Strategic Options: Generation Type • Traditional thermal energy • Flow power, mostly solar power, wind power, hydropower • Nuclear power
  22. 22. The Strategic Options:Type of Nuclear Generation• Nuclear power based on of heavy atomic nucleus fission• Thermonuclear power based on light atomic nucleus synthesis• Quark energy – hypothetic power source based on new physical principles
  23. 23. The Strategic Options:Technological Platform for Nuclear Power• Traditional technological platform.Certified slow-neutron reactors, BWR or PWR.• Innovative technological platform.Fast-neutron reactors replace slow-neutron reactors. They are to be designed, built, licensed and certificated.• Mixed technological platform.Fast-neutron reactors are an important, but secondary component for slow-neutron reactors system.
  24. 24. The Strategic Options: Reactor Type• Fast reactors – Breedersmultiplication constant is 1.2 or higher, fuel cycle closed outside power plant• Fast reactors – Closed Cyclemultiplication constant is about 1.0, fuel cycle closed inside power plant• Fast reactors – Advanced Burner Reactorsmultiplication constant does not matter, optimized utilization of spent nuclear fuel, fuel cycle closed outside power plant• Fast reactors – hydrogen producers.• “Economical reactors”.
  25. 25. The Strategic Options: Coolant Type• Metal sodium coolant• Metal lead and bismuth coolant• Metal lead coolant• Gas coolant: helium or carbon dioxide• Molten salt coolant: molten or soluted salt• Supercritical water coolant reactors, vortical units with homogeneous core etc.
  26. 26. The Strategic Options: Reactor Power• Ultrahigh-power units (more than 1.5 GW electrical power )• High-power units (750 MW – 1.5 GW)• Medium-power units (350 – 750 MW)• Small units (100 – 350 MW)• Local units (10 – 100 MW)• Ultra-small units (1 – 10 MW)• Nuclear generation units up to 1 MW
  27. 27. The Strategic Options: Fuel Cycle• Uranium fuel cycle• Thorium fuel cycle• Mixed fuel cycle (uranium – erbium or uranium – thorium – erbium)
  28. 28. The Strategic Options: Fuel Choice• Uranium oxide• Uranium nitride• Uranium carbide• Metal uranium• Various types of plutonium and uranium mix (including МОХ).
  29. 29. Strategic Priorities• Time is the only critical parameter• New Technological Platform is BN sodium reactors + BREST lead reactors + SVBR lead and bismuth reactors.• Looking forward towards a Future Technological Platform for nuclear energy, based on molten salt reactors.
  30. 30. Strategic Maneuver• Abandon research in traditional slow reactors• Focus R&D on goals of New Technological Platform (closed nuclear fuel cycle, metal coolant)• Focus R&D on goals of Future Technological Platform• Develop advanced experimental base, models and codes• Establish New Technological Platform while create Future Technological Platform• Future Technological Platform to be deployed with 6-7 years delay
  31. 31. The Future Nuclear Economy• Nuclear power would help create a new economic structure - the econocenosis.• Econocenosis goes after cluster. It is an interlinked structure of efficient logistically optimized waste-free production systems.• A Nuclear Econocenosis encompasses: – Activities directly linked with construction and operation of nuclear power plant; – Personnel, infrastructure, manufacture, transport, logistics, trade etc. that benefit from nuclear power plant; – Urban, industrial and technological environments, that interlink these systems with territory and population.