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Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities
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Technology Change and the Emergence of Entrepreneurial Opportunities

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These slides introduce a course that helps students find high-tech entrepreneurial opportunities. The course is based on a forthcoming book from Stanford University Press, entitled “Technology Change …

These slides introduce a course that helps students find high-tech entrepreneurial opportunities. The course is based on a forthcoming book from Stanford University Press, entitled “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries.” The course focuses on technology change and how technologies with rapid rates of improvement (sometimes called exponential improvements) often lead to the emergence of entrepreneurial opportunities. Unlike the conventional focus on cumulative production as the driver of improvements, however, this course (and the book) discusses four kinds of improvements (summarized in Session 2) that are often exponential in nature and the use of these four kinds of improvements to understand the change that is currently occurring in several types of technologies (summarized in Sessions 3 to 10). This course also helps students identify technologies that have a large potential for improvements and thus technologies for which many entrepreneurial opportunities will likely emerge.

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  • Why does this data tell us that learning curves don’t help us understand cost reductions in iPhone?
  • What were underlying technologies?
  • Transcript

    • 1. A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore For more information, see Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about the future.? http://www.amazon.com/Exponential-Change-drives-about-future-ebook/dp/B00HPSAYEM/ref=sr_1_1?s=digital- text&ie=UTF8&qid=1391564750&sr=1-1&keywords=exponential+change
    • 2. Basic Course Objectives  When do new technologies become economically feasible?  How can we find these technologies? either as an  entrepreneur  employee of a large company  What are the key aspects of technology change that help us find these technologies?  How can we use these key aspects of technology change to find those technologies that are becoming economically feasible or will soon become feasible?  This module helps you  find these technologies  Analyze them and present your findings in an end-of year presentation
    • 3. Change Provides Opportunities  It provides opportunities for new products and services  It also provides opportunities for new firms  New entrants  Incumbents with low shares  Types of changes  Technology  Political and regulatory rules  Social and demographic factors  Industry structure
    • 4. Looking at this Change in More Detail  Technology  Magnitude of change is important (e.g., changes in the concepts or architectures that form basis of technology)  General changes (Integrated Circuits, magnetic storage, Internet) provide more opportunities than do changes in special technologies  Political and regulatory rules  Licenses  Environmental and safety rules  Social and demographic factors  Changes in customer taste  Increased incomes  Demographic changes such as more women in the workforce or longer life spans  Industry structure  Vertical disintegration  Lower capital intensity
    • 5. Example of How Changes Led to Entrepreneurial Opportunities in Tablet Computers Opportunity: Tablet Computers including content, software Social: more interest in Internet and accessing information Economic: greater need to stay connected, cheaper entertainment Industry structure: more vertical disintegration in Internet, including more content and apps Technology: falling cost and rising performance of integrated circuits (ICs), displays, and WiFi
    • 6. Many Types of Entrepreneurial Opportunities Emerged for Tablet Computers  Designers and Manufactures of  Tablet computers  Integrated circuits (ICs)  Displays  Glass  Design houses for integrated circuits (ICs)  Software, content, and app suppliers  Contract manufacturers for tablets  Changes in higher level systems such as restaurants, health care, retail, logistics, and insurance  For some people, this is easy: from 0:20 to 2:10, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLzVqkWCVG0
    • 7. For Change, MT5009 Focuses on Technological Change  Technological change makes new things technically and economically feasible (and often leads to economic growth and higher incomes)  Most venture capital is in industries with lots of technological change  Other types of change are important, but receive less emphasis in this module  There are patterns of technological change that enable us to understand when new technologies might become economically feasible
    • 8. Number of U.S. Firms Receiving Venture Capital Funding Source: Dow Jones Venture Capital Industry Report Industry Group Industry Segment 2000 2005 Healthcare Biopharmaceuticals 338 244 Services 53 43 Medical devices 228 195 Medical Information Systems 210 54 Total 829 537 Information Technology Broadcasting and Cable 17 6 Other Communications & Networking 808 181 Electronics & Computer Hardware 157 106 Information Services 627 116 Semiconductors 254 141 Software 1790 690 Total 3653 1276 Other 1834 426 Grand Total 6316 2239
    • 9. All Industries in 2010 26.45 Billion USD Aerospace and defense 97 Agriculture and forestry 34 Biopharmaceuticals 3,246 Business support services (mostly Internet) 2,516 Communications and networking 1,027 Construction and civil engineering 141 Consumer information services 4,552 Electronics and computer hardware 1,282 Financial institutions and services 631 Food and beverage 100 Healthcare services (mostly Internet) 1,144 Household and office goods 71 Machinery and industrial goods 188 More Recent Data from Dow Jones
    • 10. All Industries Billions of USD Materials and chemicals 413 Media and content 343 Medical devices and equipment 2,249 Medical software and information services 478 Non-renewable energy 296 Personal goods 47 Renewable energy 2,118 Retailers 182 Semiconductors 764 Software 3,762 Travel and leisure 133 Utilities 141 Vehicles and parts 460 Wholesale trade and shipping 0
    • 11. Returning to “Change,” When do New Technologies Become Economically Feasible?  What is economic feasibility?  What causes new technologies to become economically feasible?  Changes in demand?  Changes in supply?  How do these changes impact on on diffusion of new technology?  Can we use this information to understand which technologies become economically feasible?  And make better decisions
    • 12. What is Economic Feasibility?  An objective comparison between a new and existing technologies. Or products that offer a superior value proposition to some set of customers  superior performance in one or more dimensions  superior features  lower price  We distinguish economic feasibility from organizational or regulatory changes that may also impact on diffusion of new technologies  Over time a new technology will become  Used by some first users  And later become economically feasible for a growing number of users and thus diffuse  We can represent this with supply and demand curves
    • 13. Quantity (Q) Price (P) q p What do Demand and Supply Curves Mean and what do they have to do with Diffusion? Demand Supply
    • 14. Some Relevant Questions:  What are the first  Products to diffuse?  First value propositions?  First designs?  Markets to accept this diffusion?  First customer segments?  First customers within segments?  First sales channels?  In this module, we are more interested in how the new technology actually becomes economically feasible. Thus….  What are typical movements of supply and demand curves  When do they intersect?  What impacts on this timing?
    • 15. Quantity (Q) Price (P) Diffusion typically starts in segments/users that are willing to pay high prices for new technologies Demand Curve Supply Curve Typical movement of supply curve over time Typical movement of demand curve over time
    • 16. What are Rates of Change in Demand and Supply Curves and What Drives Them?  Supply Curves  What is rate of change in supply curve?  Predominant viewpoint: demand drives improvements  But this ignores reality of R&D (Sessions 2 and 3)  universities and other labs improve technologies long before technologies are commercially produced  Improvements in “components” make new “system” economically feasible  What are rates of improvement and thus rates of change in supply curves?  Demand Curves  Increases in income  Changes in complementary technologies or consumer preference
    • 17. How can this Help us Understand Which Technologies are Becoming Economically Feasible?  To understand this questions, we must understand rates of improvement and the extent of improvements needed  Which technologies have rapid rates of improvement and what drives these improvements?  What drives the emergence of and improvements in technologies, e.g., improvements in cost and performance? (Sessions 2 and 3)  What extent of improvements are needed?  Which technologies require improvement?  Which require large improvements before they become economically feasible
    • 18. Rate of Improvement ExtentofImprovementNeeded Small Large Slow Fast When Will New Technologies Become Economically Feasible? Now or Probably Very Soon Probably Never Within 5 to 15 Years? Within 5-15 Years?
    • 19. When Will New Technologies Become Economically Feasible (continued)  Talking about economic feasibility and the diffusion of new technologies is really talking about the future…………  What do you think the future will be like?  On what basis have you developed these views?  Is there a better way to think about the future?  One that prevents us from becoming a victim to cognitive biases (more on this later)  Let’s think about the future first
    • 20. What is the Future of Cities?
    • 21. Maybe not the so distant future for cities?
    • 22. How About Transportation in Cities? Will these vehicles be auto- nomous vehicles and will they be stationary or moving at 100 km per hour?
    • 23. Maybe the Farms will be in the Cities What About Transport of Vegetables, Fruits, and other Food?
    • 24. How will we get information in cities of future?
    • 25. Or Maybe Our Cities will be Someplace Else?
    • 26. What is the Future of Offices?
    • 27. How big will these displays be? And how will we interact with these displays?
    • 28. Will We Use Our Hands i.e., Gesture Interface? Or something else?
    • 29. How About Our Homes? What will they be Like?
    • 30. What About the Future of Energy? The Future of Energy?
    • 31. What About the Future of the Environment?
    • 32. Or the Future of Humans?
    • 33. We Could Look at Many Such Pictures of the Future…..but  Obviously there are many technologies that might shape our future  And their numbers are rapidly increasing……..  Which ones will become a reality and which ones will fade away?  Will these technologies lead to better lives for us, our families, our grandchildren?  Will you personally benefit from them?  As users?  As suppliers?  As entrepreneurs?
    • 34. Which Technologies will become a Reality and which ones will Fade Away?  This is obviously difficult to predict……  Depends on  rates of improvements  extent of improvements needed  where the above two depend on user preferences and  interactions between multiple technologies or what I call an interaction between systems and components  Improvements in components enable us to design new and better systems  All of the previous pictures were of systems  We focus on rates of improvement and degree of improvements needed
    • 35. Different Technologies have Different Annual Rates of Improvement 0 5 10 15 20 25 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 >42 Number of Technologies by Annual Rates of Improvement Annual Rates of Improvement Source: my analysis of data from: Nagy B, Farmer D, Bui Q, Trancik J 2013. Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052669NREL, 2013 67%: <9% per year 89%: <15% per year
    • 36. Faster Rates of Improvements  Increase the chances that a new technology or systems composed of that technology will become economically feasible  For example, Moore’s Law enabled emergence of many new systems  Calculators, digital watches  Personal computers, laptops, tablets, PDAs  Video games, digital cameras, MP3 Players  E-book readers, digital TV, smart phones  What new systems will Moore’s Law or other technologies enable in the future?  This question was implicit in many of the pictures shown earlier
    • 37. Key Questions  Which Technologies are Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvement?  Which Technologies are Experiencing Slow Rates of Improvement  What do you think?
    • 38. What do you think?  What are the rates of improvements for the below technologies?  Batteries?  Installed wind turbines?  Installed solar Cells?  ICs, lasers, other electronic components, computers?  Superconductivity?  We then might ask which of the above technologies will have the largest impact on reducing the usage of fossil fuels in the next 10 years
    • 39. Rates of Improvements  Batteries – about 5% per year  Installed Wind Turbines – about 2% per year  Installed Solar Cells – about 7% per year (much faster for the cells themselves)  ICs, computers, lasers, electronic components – between 30 and 40% per year  Superconductors – between 30 and 50% a year  Slow rates of improvements suggest that “improvements in batteries and wind turbines” will have smaller effect than will other technologies  Can improvements in ICs etc. enable improvements in efficiency of logistics, transportation and other energy intensive activities?
    • 40. Other Slow Rates (<5%)  Appliances: residential heat pumps, air conditioners, washing machines, laundry dryers, dishwashers, refrigerators, freezers, light bulbs (Weiss, M., M. Junginger, M. K. Patel and K. Blok 2010. A review of experience curve analyses for energy demand technologies, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 77(3): 411-428)  Materials, beverages, electrical appliances, foods  some chemicals experienced slightly faster rates of improvement, but rarely reach 10% a year  Nagy B, Farmer D, Bui Q, Trancik J 2013. Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress. PLoS ONE 8(2): e52669. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0052669NREL, 2013  What is the difference between annual rates of improvement and rates of improvement with each doubling of cumulative production?
    • 41. Importance of Fast Annual Rates of Improvement is Often Underestimated  1% per year: 70 years for doubling of performance (or halving of costs)  5% per year: 14 years for doubling  10% per year: 7 years for doubling  20% per year: 3.5 years for doubling  30% per year: 2.3 years for doubling  Technologies with rapid rates of improvement can have a large impact on our world and how we design cities, homes, offices, health care and energy generation and distribution
    • 42. Understanding of Rates of Improvement is Rare  Many confuse rates of improvement for each doubling of cumulative production with annual rates of improvement  Many don’t know the rates of improvement  Many assume technologies are experiencing rapid rates of improvement because they are widely discussed (batteries, wind turbines)  Even if they know them, they don’t understand the implications
    • 43. What About Mobile Phones? (1)  In early 1980s, one study concluded there would be about 1 million mobile phones in use by 2000  Some would say we under estimated the need for mobile phones  I say we under estimated the impact of Moore’s Law on the cost of mobile phones
    • 44. What About Mobile Phones? (2)  In early 2000s, many believed that location services were a huge market  Until a few years ago no one used these services  Until a few years ago some would say we overestimated the need for such services  I say we  over estimated the impact of Moore’s Law on the cost of such services for short term  under estimated the impact for long term
    • 45. Another Reason Fast Rates of Improvements are Underestimated  Cognitive biases  Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman
    • 46. Cognitive Biases Nobel Laureate Daniel Kahneman  People assess relative importance of issues, including new technologies  by ease of retrieving from memory  largely determined by extent of coverage in media  E.g., media talks about solar, wind, battery-powered vehicles, bio-fuels and thus many think they have rapid rates of improvement - but only some are  Second, judgments and decisions are guided directly by feelings of liking and disliking  One person invested in Ford because he “liked” their products – but was Ford stock undervalued?  Many people “like” some technologies and dislike others without considering rates of improvement Source: Daniel Kahneman, Thinking Fast and Slow, 2011
    • 47. Types of Questions that Daniel Kahneman Asks  Which of the following scenarios is more likely?  a) Sam goes to work tomorrow  b) Sam goes to zoo tomorrow  c) Sam goes to restaurant tomorrow night  d) Sam goes works at a high tech IT office during day developing software and goes to restaurant in Chijmes at night with his friends  An individual has been described by a neighbor as follows:  “Steve is very shy and withdrawn, invariably helpful but with little interest in people or in the world of reality. A meek and tidy soul, he has a need for order and structure and a passion for detail.”  Is Steve more likely to be a librarian or a farmer?
    • 48. Cognitive Biases  We all have them  Even MIT probably does (see next slide)  Some are better at recognizing and avoiding them than are others  Warren Buffet is probably better than most of us  Most management programs would spend more time on cognitive biases and decision making than does ETM  Before returning to technology change and understanding when new technologies become economically feasible, let’s take a brief look at MIT’s predictions of the future
    • 49. MIT Predicted 10 Breakthrough Technologies in 2001, 2003, 2004 and 2005  After excluding 7 technologies that were too broad to gather data, there were 33 technologies  1 has greater than $10 Billion in sales  smart grids (power grid control)  2 have sales between $5 and $10 Billion  micro-photonics, personal genomics  11 have sales between $1 and $10 Billion  Grid computing, Molecular imaging, Synthetic Biology, Distributed Storage  RNAi Interference, Brain-Machine Interface, Data mining, Biometrics  Digital Rights Management, Natural Language Processing, Microfluidics  5 have sales between $100 million and $1 Billion  14 have sales less than $100 million
    • 50. How Good were these Predictions?  Difficult to assess, but more than half still have small markets of less than $1 Billion in sales  Might these markets grow in the near future?  Or have they been abandoned?  MIT’s Technology Review also missed many technologies that have more than $10 Billion in sales  Smart phones  Cloud computing  Tablet computers  Big Data  Social Networking  eBooks and eReaders
    • 51. Isn’t there a more deliberate and logical way?  Understanding rates of improvement can help firms, universities, and governments better understand when new technologies might become economically feasible  Technologies must have some level of performance and price for specific applications before they begin to diffuse  Technologies that experience faster rates of improvement are more likely to become economically feasible….  They are also more likely to have an impact on how we design higher-level systems  This has implications for R&D policy and solving global problems such as urban congestion, sustainability  But which technologies are currently experiencing rapid rates of improvement and why?
    • 52. Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate Per Year Integrated Circuits Number of transistors per chip 1971-2011 38% Power ICs Current Density 1993-2012 16.1% Passive RFID Price per RFID transponder 2005-2012 19.1% Camera chips Pixels per dollar 1983-2013 48.7% Light sensitivity 1986-2008 18% MEMS Number of Electrodes per Eye 2002-2013 45.6% Drops per second for printer 1985-2009 61% Organic Transistors Mobility 1994-2007 101% Computers Instructions per unit time 1979-2009 35.9% Instructions per time and dollar 1979-2009 52.2% Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements (Information Transformation)
    • 53. Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate Per Year Carbon Nanotube Transistors 1/Purity (% metallic) 1999-2011 32.1% Density (per micrometer) 2006-2011 357% Superconducting Josephson Junctions 1/Clock period 1990-2010 20.3% 1/Bit energy 1990-2010 19.8% Qubit Lifetimes 1999-2012 142% Bits per Qubit lifetime 2005-2013 137% Photonics Number of Optical Channels 1983-2011 39.0% Computers Instructions per unit time 1979-2009 35.9% Instructions per time and dollar 1979-2009 52.2% Quantum Computers Number of Qubits 2002-2012 107% Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements (Information Transformation - Continued)
    • 54. Sub-Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate/ Year Magnetic Storage Recording density (disks) 1991-2011 55.7% Recording density (tape) 1993-2011 32.1% Cost per bit 1956-2007 32.7% Flash Memory Storage Capacity 2001-2013 47% Resistive RAM 2006-2013 272% Ferro-electric RAM 2001-2009 37% Phase Change RAM 2004-2012 63% Magneto RAM 2002-2011 58% Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements (Information Storage)
    • 55. Technology Domain Sub-Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate/ Year Information Transmission Last Mile Wireline Bits per second 1982-2010 48.7% Wireless, 100 m Bits per second 1996-2013 79.1% Wireless, 10 m 1995-2010 58.4% Wireless, 1 meter (USB) 1996-2008 77.8% Materials Transformation Carbon Nanotubes 1/Minimum Theoretical Energy for Production 1999-2008 86.3% Biological Trans- formation DNA Sequencing per unit cost 2001-2013 146% Synthesizing per cost 2002-2010 84.3% Cellulosic Ethanol Output per cost 2001-2012 13.9% Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements (Information Transmission, Materials and Biological Transformation)
    • 56. Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improvements Technology Domain Sub- Technology Dimensions of measure Time Period Rate Per Year Energy Trans- formation Light Emitting Diodes (LEDs) Luminosity per Watt 1965-2008 31% Lumens per Dollar 2000-2010 41% Organic LEDs Luminosity per Watt 1987-2005 29% GaAs Lasers Power/length-bar 1987-2007 30% LCDs Square meters/dollar 2001-2011 11% Quantum Dot Displays External Efficiency 1994-2009 79% Solar Cells Peak Watt Per Dollar 2004-2013 21% Photo-sensors (Camera chips) Pixels per dollar 1983-2013 49% Light sensitivity 1986-2008 18% Energy Transmission Super- conductors Current-length/dollar 2004-2010 115% Current x length-BSSCO 1987-2008 33% Current x length-YBCO 2002-2011 53%
    • 57. I probably missed some…..  Can you find other ones in your group presentations?  Or can you combine these technologies or these and other technologies into new “systems”  Don’t just copy what others say, combine technologies into new and novel systems  This is your opportunity to think about the future and do so in a more rigorous way than is done by the media  Technologies with rapid rates of improvement will have a large impact on the world partly depending on how they are combined in novel and interesting ways
    • 58. Let’s talk about the module in more detail  Method of grading  Example of a project on computers  What about firms?  Overview of Schedule
    • 59. Grading  No research papers or final exam  Group presentation (60%)  Participation (10%)  One page write-ups (30%)  4 one-page write-ups on topics related to technologies covered in sessions 4 through 10  2 one-page write-ups on topics related to technologies covered in group presentations
    • 60. Group Presentations  I let you form your own groups/teams in order to make it easier for you to choose a project theme/research topic that is closer to your interests  Assessments by peers will be used to assign individual grades  Feedback given on summaries before Session 6 and on presentation slides in or before Session 11  Number of students per group  Partly depends on the number of students in the module  Since we currently have about 50 students, I would like 4 to 6 students per group
    • 61. Presentation Should Cover  Important dimensions of performance and cost, i.e., customer needs, for the new technology  Levels of performance and cost that are needed for the new technology to become economically feasible  Time series data on improvements in the cost and performance of “system” and “components”  How these improvements are occurring, i.e., mechanisms  Potential for further improvements, including role of related technologies (e.g., components in system)  Entrepreneurial Opportunities for the technology
    • 62. Grading of Presentations (1)  Creativity (40%), Thoughtful analysis (40%), Application of concepts (20%)  Creativity (40%)  grade reflects both choice and analysis of technology  technology should be new (not widely used or not used at all)  may combine individual technologies (i.e., components) in novel and useful ways  Should involve technologies that are experiencing rapid improvements  You can choose a topic that I cover in class and/or one that has been covered in previous years, but you must provide more details and insights than those presentations. See my slideshare account for past presentations  http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
    • 63. Grading of Presentations (2)  Thoughtful analysis (40%)  Effectiveness and clarity of presentation  Slides should be understandable without explanations  Acronyms should be defined  Data should be effectively interpreted on separate slides  Inconsistencies between data should be discussed  Non-essential information should be excluded from slides  Please include references  Application of concepts (20%) covered in this module  How improvements occur  Materials, scaling, processes, components and systems
    • 64. Grading of Presentations (3)  In general presentations that  present data  good explanations of that data  and refer to technical journals or reports will receive better grades than will other presentations  Wikipedia, Answers.com, or HowStuffWorks.com should only be starting points for analysis  Presentation grades are translated into individual grades using peer evaluations • See previous years’ presentations for more details: http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
    • 65. Participation  You are expected to actively participate in class discussion  Please be prepared mentally for the classes  Many questions will be asked to stimulate discussion  Some of these questions will be about your vision for Singapore’s future  Please be prepared for these types of questions  There is no right answers for these questions
    • 66. One-Page Write-ups  4 one-page write-ups on topics related to technologies covered in sessions 4 through 10 (20% of your grade)  If you had two months to investigate one of these topics, what would you do?  What types of data would you gather and how would you gather the data? Who might you interview?  Topics are listed at end of these slides, of each session, and in assessment section of IVLE  2 one-page write-ups on topics related to technologies covered in group presentations (10% of your grade)  Topic should be main points of presentation  propose a different method of analysis than the group did  It should not take you longer than 2 hours to do each assignment
    • 67. Grading of One-Page Write-Ups (1)  Similar to grading of presentations  Creativity  Thoughtful analysis  Application of concepts  Key difference. Grades reflect:  Creativity of your method  Logic of your method  And to a lesser extent, application of concepts from class
    • 68. Although not graded, you should also think about:  Implications for yourself  Does this technology warrant further analysis by myself?  Do I have some skills that can be transferred to this new technology?  For example, if you are a semiconductor engineer, is the potential for solar energy or new displays large enough for you to consider learning about them? Or for you to consider changing jobs?
    • 69. Labeling of Files  You must upload many files to IVLE  Please label group presentation summaries and slides by name of technology  Please label individual assignments with your name and session’s technology (and put name inside)  Analysis of entrepreneurial opportunities  Analysis of one group presentation  Peer evaluations  Please upload the files to the appropriate workbin
    • 70. Outline  Existing theories on technological change do not help us  My approach to technological change  Method of grading  Example of a project on ICs  What about firms?  Overview of Schedule
    • 71. Consider Transistors/ Integrated Circuits  Let’s make believe the year is 1965(*) and you are Robert Noyce or Jack Kilby  Who were co-developers of the IC in 1959 *Gordon Moore’s famous article was published in 1965
    • 72. Presentation Should Cover  Important dimensions of performance and cost, i.e., customer needs, for the new technology  Levels of performance and cost that are needed for the new technology to become economically feasible  Time series data on improvements in the cost and performance of “system” and “components”  How these improvements are occurring, i.e., mechanisms  Potential for further improvements, including role of related technologies (e.g., components in system)  Entrepreneurial Opportunities for the technology
    • 73. Important Dimensions of Performance  Speeds  Power consumption  Range of voltages and frequency response  Size  Manufacturing cost  Development cost
    • 74. Levels of performance and cost that are needed for the new technology to become economically feasible  Small size and faster speeds were major advantages of ICs  But initially too expensive for most applications  Market initially limited to military applications like missiles  Next markets were computer and telecommunication systems  First transistors used in computers in late 1950s  Consumer applications for ICs required much lower levels of cost  In addition to cost problems, too high of power consumption for portable calculators and watches
    • 75. Presentation Should Cover  Important dimensions of performance and cost, i.e., customer needs, for the new technology  Levels of performance and cost that are needed for the new technology to become economically feasible  Time series data on improvements in the cost and performance of “system” and “components”  How these improvements are occurring, i.e., mechanisms  Potential for further improvements, including role of related technologies (e.g., components in system)  Entrepreneurial Opportunities for the technology
    • 76. Time Series Data  Moore’s Law  Originally presented in terms of falling cost  Later represented by increasing number of transistors per chip  One could also have identified the resulting improvements in various “systems”  in processing speeds or costs of computers  in cost and performance of other electronic products
    • 77. Potential for improvements in “system” and “components” (1)  Definitions  System: ICs  Components: materials and manufacturing equipment  Ability to reduce feature sizes (i.e., scaling) partly because equipment and processes were available (e.g., from nuclear, aerospace, and other industries) for doing so  Epitaxial and other deposition equipment  Diffusion (i.e., furnace) and ion implementation equipment  Screen printing equipment  Wet chemical baths
    • 78. Potential for improvements in “system” and “components” (2)  Large impact of reduced feature sizes on  Functionality  Speeds  Power consumption (lower per transistor)  Size  Manufacturing costs  What were (in 1965 terms) the perceived limits to reducing the feature sizes?  If there are no limits and rapid improvements can be made………………
    • 79. Why a High Potential?  Miniaturization of ICs is easier than with vacuum tubes  ICs are formed in a thin substrate  Vacuum tubes are based on electrodes and current jumping across electrode
    • 80. Presentation Should Cover  Important dimensions of performance and cost, i.e., customer needs, for the new technology  Levels of performance and cost that are needed for the new technology to become economically feasible  Time series data on improvements in the cost and performance of “system” and “components”  How these improvements are occurring, i.e., mechanisms  Potential for further improvements, including role of related technologies (e.g., components in system)  Entrepreneurial Opportunities for the technology
    • 81. What are Entrepreneurial Opportunities?  They are not applications!!  They are products and services that offer potential revenues to their providers  Not the same as applications!  Not just final product or service, but any component, software, service, or manufacturing equipment that is needed to commercialize the technology  Think about vertical disintegration  Applications should be analyzed in terms of the products and services that are needed to satisfy the applications  Different applications may require different types of products and services  The more specific you can be, the better your grade
    • 82. Types of entrepreneurial opportunities that Kilby and Noyce might have emphasized (1)  Various types of discrete transistors and ICs  Various types of supporting technologies  Semiconductor manufacturing equipment  Materials for wafers and various layers  Computer-aided design tools, Software for each system  Later design houses, foundries  Improvements to existing systems: Replace vacuum tubes with ICs in low power applications  Military equipment such as missiles  Computers, radios and televisions  Telephones and telecommunication switches
    • 83. Types of entrepreneurial opportunities that Kilby and Noyce might have emphasized (2)  Improvements to existing systems: Replace mechanical controls/systems with ICs  Watches  Mechanical calculators  Numerical controlled machine tools  Process controls for chemical plants
    • 84. Types of entrepreneurial opportunities that Kilby and Noyce would probably not have emphasized, but have become possible  Make new forms of systems possible  Personal computers including portable ones  Mobile phones  Set-top boxes for cable television  Routers, switches, and the Internet  This would have led to opportunities for providers of these systems and ICs along with software, and other components for these systems  I would not have expected them to identify these kinds of market opportunities (and thus I don’t expect you to be able to do so)
    • 85. 0.01K$ 0.1K$ 1.K$ 10.K$ 100.K$ 1,000.K$ 10,000.K$ 100,000.K$ 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 16 KB 64 KB 256 KB 1 MB 8 MB System Price K$ = 5 x 3 x .04 x memory size/ 1.26 (t-1972) 5: Memory is 20% of cost 3: DEC markup .04: $ per byte He didn’t believe: The projection 500$ machine He couldn’t comprehend implications Gordon Bell’s (CTO of DEC)1975 VAX planning model... : He didn’t believe it! Source: Jim Gray, Microsoft: slidefinder.net/l/laws_cyberspace/62483
    • 86. Outline  Method of grading  Example of a project on computers  What about firms?  Overview of Schedule
    • 87. What About Firms?  The unit of analysis in MT5009 is primarily technology  Presentations focus on technology  But of course firms are important!  For other modules the unit of analysis is often a firm and a product (e.g., Biz Models - MT5016)  MT5009 focuses on when a  new technology might offer a superior value proposition  when firms should develop biz model for new technology  and who the customers and where the opportunities (products and services) for firms might be
    • 88. Other Things MT5009 is not About  I am not expert on how technologies work  certainly not for all of the technologies covered in MT5009  The module focuses on improvement trajectories and what these trajectories means for  when those technologies will become economically feasible  And the entrepreneurial opportunities that will likely emerge  Please refer to the experts on these technologies for details on how they work  But also remember that explanations for phenomena often change over time
    • 89. Outline  Existing theories on technological change do not help us  My approach to technological change  Method of grading  Example of a project on computers  What about firms?  Overview of Schedule
    • 90. Session Activities 1 Objectives and overview of course 2 When do new technologies become economically feasible? Five myths of technology change 3 Two drivers of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena; 2) Geometrical scaling 4-10 Technologies experiencing rapid rates of improvement and what this means for future of technology Session 6: Chinese New Year, no class Session 8: eLearning Week 26 Feb: no class because of mid-semester break 11 (2 Apr) Review of student slides 12 (9 Apr), 13 (16 Apr) Student presentations Schedule
    • 91. Key Deadlines/Events  Session 3: mail me list of students in your group by 29 January; message must include all members in carbon copy  Session 5: mail me one-page summaries of proposed presentations by 12 February (I respond before Session 6)  Session 10: upload your slides to workbin on IVLE by 26 March  Sessions 4-10: Write-ups due one week after relevant session  Session 11: I provide feedback on slides in class and during previous days  Sessions 12 and 13: group presentations  Two weeks after sessions 12 and 13: write-ups on presentations are due
    • 92. Session 2: When do New Technologies Become Economically Feasible?  Supply and demand curves and dynamics of economic feasibility  Movements of supply curves are important and thus rates of improvement in technologies  Myths (and realities) about technology change  #1: Performance vs. time curves resemble an S-curve  #2: Slowing rate of improvement in old technology drives development of new technology  #3: Product design changes drives performance increases and process design changes drives cost reductions, with product preceding process design changes in life cycle  #4: Costs fall as cumulative production rises in learning curve  #5: All technologies have potential for rapid rates of improvements  Empirical Analysis of Predictions Made by MIT
    • 93. Session 3: Two Drivers of Improvements  Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomena  Geometrical scaling  Increases in scale: e.g., larger production equipment, engines, oil tankers  Reductions in scale: e.g., integrated circuits (ICs), magnetic storage, MEMS, bio-electronic ICs  Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components”. Examples of systems include:  Computers and other electronic systems  Telecommunication systems  Rapid improvements are primarily driven by reductions in scale and by new materials, when new classes are created
    • 94. Sessions 4-10: Technologies experiencing rapid rates of improvement and what this means for future of technology?  Purpose of sessions is to help you  understand the technology and the changes occurring in this technology  identify and do analysis in group projects  You can analyze any technologies covered in these sessions including ones done by students in previous years  You must, however, focus on a slightly different technology, perhaps a sub-technology, or go beyond my discussions or those in previous years  If you choose a technology that will be discussed in this module, you should look at the slides in advance, which are available on the IVLE or http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
    • 95. What do These Improvements Tell Us About the Future?  When will technologies become economically feasible for specific applications?  When will new systems, that are composed of these technologies become economically feasible?  Can we combine these technologies into novel and useful ways?  Let’s go beyond what the media says and create novel and useful systems  Remember Daniel Kahneman’s observation of biases!
    • 96. The Specific Technologies for this Module Come From Many Sources  Ray Kurzweil focuses on rates of improvements in technologies, which is consistent with my approach  Michio Kaku focuses on what kinds of concepts are scientifically and technically possible  Richard Albright analyzed Herman Kahn’s 1967 Forecast  Many others focus on scientific and technical feasibility and interviews with “experts.” For example,  Mark Stevenson, An Optimists Tour of the Future, 2011  Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler, Abundance, 2012  But mostly from scientific and engineering articles (Nature, Science, Phys.Org, etc.) and articles from Economist, NY Times, Wall Street Journal
    • 97. Ray Kurzweil  Founder of more than 10 companies  Recipient of  more than 100 patents  More than 10 honorary doctorates  Author of many books including best sellers on future  The Singularity is Near, The Age of Spiritual Machines  The Age of Intelligent Machines  Founder of Singularity University in 2009  http://singularityu.org/  http://ux4dotcom.blogspot.com/2009/08/ray-kurzweil-talk- about-singularity.html  http://www.tedxsingapore.sg/topted.php  He focuses on technologies that experience exponential improvements, which is consistent with MT5009
    • 98. Michio Kaku  Professor of Physics at City University of New York  Author of many books including best sellers on future  Physics of the Future: How Science Will Shape Human Destiny and Our Daily Lives by the Year 2100 (2011)  Physics of the Impossible (2009)  Visions: How Science Will Revolutionize the 21st Century (1998)  He focuses on scientific and technical feasibility  Sources of insights include interviews with thousands of scientists on his radio talk show  I focus on economic feasibility and when some of his scientifically (and technically) feasible concepts might become economically feasible
    • 99. Richard Albright Analyzed Kahn’s 1967 Forecast  Asked a panel of experts about  Forecasts made by Herman Kahn and Anthony Wiener in their book, “The Year 2000, A Framework for Speculation on the Next Thirty-Three Years,”  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herman Kahn  Panel concluded that  fewer than 50% of forecasted innovations occurred before the end of 20th century  But 80% for computers and communication, 20% in aerospace, and 30% in infrastructure, transportation  large improvements in “underlying technologies supported emergence of forecasted innovations for computers and communication  This course focuses on “underlying technologies”
    • 100. Can We do Forecasts?  Most actions imply a forecast  Any R&D budget implies a forecast  A research plan implies a forecast  A firm’s decision to commercialize a technology implies a forecast  A firm’s decision to introduce a product implies a forecast  An student’s choice of classes, a topic for a project, a choice of a book or paper to read, a job/company implies a forecast  Everyone makes forecasts, at least implicitly!
    • 101.  Looking at the schedule in more detail
    • 102. Session Technology 4: Feb 5 Future of ICs and Electronic Systems 5: Feb 12 Internet of Things, Sensors, MEMS and Bio-electronics 6: Feb 19 Chinese New Year, no class Feb 26 Mid-semester break, no class 7: Mar 5 Lighting and Displays 8: Mar 12 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing (eLearning) 9: Mar 19 IT and Transportation 10: Mar 26 DNA sequencing and solar cells Note that slides for other technologies are also available on IVLE and my slideshare account (telecom, energy storage, wind turbine, nanotechnology, superconductivity) Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improve- ment and what this Means for Future of Technology
    • 103. Background Information on ICs  Geometric scaling – how reductions in scale led to improvements in performance and cost of ICs  How these improvements enabled the introduction of new types of ICs over the last 50 years  logic chips, memory, microprocessors, Application Specific ICs (ASICs), Application Specific Standard Products (ASSPs)  How these better ICs led to better electronic systems  computers, routers, servers, mobile phones and mobile phone systems, wireline telecom, video game consoles  But reductions in scale are becoming more difficult…..  new forms of transistors and other designs are emerging
    • 104. Potential Projects (1)  New types of processes, transistors, ICs  Extreme ultra-violet photolithography  New types of transistors, e.g., new “FIN FET”  3D ICs – address specific types of ICs such as memory, microprocessors or combinations of them  Replacements for flash memory: phase change memory (PRAM) magnetic RAM (MRAM), Ferroelectric RAM (FeRAM), and resistive RAM (ReRAM)  Molecular and atomic transistors  Transistors made from single atom-layer materials (e.g., graphene and other materials)
    • 105. Potential Projects (2)  New types of electronic systems  Computer assistants for doctor  Smart Homes  New types of wireless and wireline systems  Better imaging systems for health care  New types of data analytics  Prescriptive planting (big data for agriculture)  Better logistics for materials and people  Eye-tracking, 3D scanners  Free routing of aircraft  More efficient construction (e.g., pre-fab housing by DIRTT)  Increasing Use of Open Source Software and Impact on Electronic Systems
    • 106. Session Technology 4: Feb 5 Future of ICs and Electronic Systems 5: Feb 12 Internet of Things, Sensors, MEMS, Bio-electronics 6: Feb 19 Chinese New Year, no class Feb 26 Mid-semester break, no class 7: Mar 5 Lighting and Displays 8: Mar 12 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing (eLearning) 9: Mar 19 IT and Transportation 10: Mar 26 DNA sequencing and solar cells Note that slides for other technologies are also available on IVLE and my slideshare account (telecom, energy storage, wind turbine, nanotechnology, superconductivity) Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improve- ment and what this Means for Future of Technology
    • 107. Background Information  Falling cost of sensors and ICs for Internet of Things  Reductions in scale drive improvements in performance (e.g., sensitivity) and cost of MEMS, bio-electronic ICs  Bio-electronic ICs are a type of MEMS with micro- fluidic channels  Improvements in MEMS make new forms of electronic systems possible. examples include: filters for mobile phones, micro-gas analyzers, ink jet printers, bionic eyes  Will MEMS and bio-electronic ICs revolutionize electronic systems to the same extent that ICs have?  High development costs of MEMS are a big barrier; can they be reduced?
    • 108. Potential Projects  Internet of Things and Wireless sensors  Putting GPS, WiFi, other sensors in everything  New types of MEMS or bio-electronic ICs  Electronic systems that consist of MEMS  Mobile phone based systems  Point care diagnostic systems, smart pills  Chips embedded in body, clothing, and other places to monitor body and also help with prosthetic limbs  Can mobile phones become main form of point care diagnostic system?  Methods of reducing development costs of MEMS – standardization of materials, equipment, processes
    • 109. Session Technology 4: Feb 5 Future of ICs and Electronic Systems 5: Feb 12 Internet of Things, Sensors, MEMS and Bio-electronics 6: Feb 19 Chinese New Year, no class Feb 26 Mid-semester break, no class 7: Mar 5 Lighting and Displays 8: Mar 12 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing (eLearning) 9: Mar 19 IT and Transportation 10: Mar 26 DNA sequencing and solar cells Note that slides for other technologies are also available on IVLE and my slideshare account (telecom, energy storage, wind turbine, nanotechnology, superconductivity) Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improve- ment and what this Means for Future of Technology
    • 110. Background Information  Improvements in efficiency (new materials) for past and new forms of lighting and lasers  Incandescent, fluorescent, and compact fluorescent  LEDs (light emitting diodes), OLEDs (Organic LEDs), lasers  Improvements in old and new forms of displays  LCDs, including 3D Displays  Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLEDs) based displays  Flexible displays  Holographic displays  Geometric scaling in liquid crystal displays (LCDs)  Larger (and thinner) substrates/production equipment lead to lower costs  Also with roll-to roll printing
    • 111. Potential Projects (1)  New forms of lighting  LEDs or OLEDs  Smart lighting: combine motion sensors and LEDs/OLEDs to provide more effective and aesthetic lighting  Lighting as a Service  New forms of lasers and applications for them  Scanners for different applications including those that involve 3D printer  Specific types of drones, underwater automated vehicles, virtual reality, surgery, 3D printer  Other applications? Higher power output lasers?
    • 112. Potential Projects (2)  New forms of displays  Organic Light Emitting Diode (OLEDs) based displays  Electronic paper such as that used in eBooks  Flexible displays, holographic displays  New applications of displays  Public displays  Home displays: kitchens and living, dining, and bathrooms  Smart watches, or wrist displays  Impact of better displays on daily activities  Virtual Reality for games (e.g., Occulus Rift) and other applications
    • 113. Session Technology 4: Feb 5 Future of ICs and Electronic Systems 5: Feb 12 Internet of Things, Sensors, MEMS and Bio-electronics 6: Feb 19 Chinese New Year, no class Feb 26 Mid-semester break, no class 7: Mar 5 Lighting and Displays 8: Mar 12 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing (eLearning) 9: Mar 19 IT and Transportation 10: Mar 26 DNA sequencing and solar cells Note that slides for other technologies are also available on IVLE and my slideshare account (telecom, energy storage, wind turbine, nanotechnology, superconductivity) Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improve- ment and what this Means for Future of Technology
    • 114. Background Information  Roll-to roll printing: Lower cost of R2R printing  Different forms of human-computer interface (HCI)  Keyboard, Touch, Voice, Gesture, Neural  Impact of improvements in ICs, cameras, sensors, magnetic imaging on these interfaces  Combining different forms of interfaces  Augmented reality (including Google glasses)  Virtual reality
    • 115. Potential Projects (1)  How is R2R printing reducing the cost of producing organic-based technologies  organic displays, transistors, and solar cells  How about other technologies?
    • 116. Potential Projects (2)  Advances in gesture, touch, voice, and neural interfaces  New combinations of these interfaces that enable improvements in for example:  LEAP, Kinect, Google Glass  Auresma, Senseg, Tactus, AtracTable  What do the improvements in cameras, motion and touch sensors, and other electronic components tell us about the future of interfaces for specific applications?  Might a different combination of sensors emerge as an interface?
    • 117. Potential Projects (3)  New human-computer interfaces for specific applications (not just for typical users like us)  For example, augmented/virtual reality for specific applications  assemblers can see drawings  construction workers can see through walls, wires, and pipes  prospectors can see through the ground  architects can see entire 3D image of building  similar systems could be useful for tourists, shopping, soldiers, and artists  360 degree view for drivers and pilots
    • 118. Session Technology 4: Feb 5 Future of ICs and Electronic Systems 5: Feb 12 Internet of Things, Sensors, MEMS and Bio-electronics 6: Feb 19 Chinese New Year, no class Feb 26 Mid-semester break, no class 7: Mar 5 Lighting and Displays 8: Mar 12 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing (eLearning) 9: Mar 19 IT and Transportation 10: Mar 26 DNA sequencing and solar cells Note that slides for other technologies are also available on IVLE and my slideshare account (telecom, energy storage, wind turbine, nanotechnology, superconductivity) Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improve- ment and what this Means for Future of Technology
    • 119. Background Information  Role of IT in Transportation  Better ICs and other components  Open Source Software  Improvements in IT are improving economics of  Mobile phones and GPS for buses  Mobile phones and GPS for bike sharing and combining bike sharing with trains  Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles  Charging stations, both wireless and wired, for electric vehicles  Will this lead to fewer private vehicles?
    • 120. Potential Projects  Mobile phones and GPS for buses  Mobile phones and GPS for Bike sharing  IT for train: Can IT increase ridership?  Roads dedicated to autonomous vehicles  Charging stations for electric vehicles  Wired charging  Wireless charging  For last two topics, future projects must go beyond projects done last semester
    • 121. Session Technology 4: Feb 5 Future of ICs and Electronic Systems 5: Feb 12 Internet of Things, Sensors, MEMS and Bio-electronics 6: Feb 19 Chinese New Year, no class Feb 26 Mid-semester break, no class 7: Mar 5 Lighting and Displays 8: Mar 12 Human-Computer Interfaces, R2R Printing (eLearning) 9: Mar 19 IT and Transportation 10: Mar 26 DNA sequencing and Solar Cells Note that slides for other technologies are also available on the IVLE and my slideshare account (telecom, energy storage, wind turbine, nanotechnology, superconductivity) Technologies Experiencing Rapid Rates of Improve- ment and what this Means for Future of Technology
    • 122. Background Information  DNA sequencing and synthesizing  Cost is rapidly falling  Implications for drug discovery, better crops, and materials  Solar cells  Cost of solar cells is rapidly falling, but not cost of installation  Rapid improvements in efficiencies for some solar cells such as organic, perovskite and quantum dots  Rapid reductions in cost of solar cells through new processes, R2R printing or increases in scale of substrate and equipment
    • 123. Potential Projects (1)  Cost and performance trends for DNA sequencers and synthesizers  How can DNA sequencers and synthesizers help us develop  better crops, biofuels, other materials?  Complex systems?  How many improvements are needed before one of these technologies can be economically used in a new “system”?
    • 124. Potential Projects (2)  How can cost of installation be reduced?  Design solar cells in different way?  Combine solar factory with electricity generating plant?  New forms of solar cells (organic, quantum dots, Petrovskite), scaling in solar cells (thinner layers, larger production equipment), coarse tracking  New types of equipment for solar cells and scaling in the equipment/substrate  Photolithographic, Plasma etching  Chemical and physical vapor deposition, Sputtering  Epitaxial liftoff
    • 125. Summary  Technologies that experience rapid improvements in performance and cost or systems composed from them are more likely to become economically feasible than are other technologies  Understanding the technologies experiencing rapid rates of improvement can help us better understand the future  We will learn  about the dynamics of technology change including the dynamics of economic feasibility in Session 2  drivers of improvements in Session 3  Specific technologies in Sessions 4 to 10  How to analyze technologies and present your findings throughout this module
    • 126. Forming Groups  Start now!  I let you form your own groups in order to make it easier for you to choose a project theme/research topic that is closer to your interests  Please start as soon as possible  Number of students/per group: between four and six  If you can’t find a group, please let me know
    • 127. Who am I (1)  Education  B.S. in Physics  Graduate studies in Electrical Engineering  M.S. Mechanical Engineering (Carnegie Mellon University)  Interdisciplinary Ph.D. (Engineering & Public Policy) from Carnegie-Mellon University (1984)  Worked at Hughes Aircraft on semiconductors (1978-1980) and Westinghouse (1985-1990) on implementation of new design and manufacturing techniques/technology  Taught at  Pennsylvania State University (1991-1995)  Kobe University (1996-2003)  Hitotsubashi University (2003-2007)  NUS (from 2007)
    • 128. Who am I (2)  Research:  Management of Technology: Product Development, Standards, Modular Design and Vertical Disintegration Technological Discontinuities,  Mobile Phone: many years. Received the DoCoMo Mobile Science Award for lifetime contributions in mobile communications in 2004  Publications  About 40 papers in refereed journals  Six books  Consulting: Bouygues Telecom, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Vodafone, Gehrson Lehman, Panasonic, Vodafone, Motorola
    • 129. Who Am I (3)  Six books, the two most recent  Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries, Stanford University Press (2013)  Exponential Change: What drives it? What does it tell us about the future? (2014); Price is 0.99USD http://www.amazon.com/dp/B00HPSAYEM  Exponential Change can also be read on other devices besides Amazon Kindle. Here are appropriate apps:  http://www.amazon.com/gp/feature.html?docId=1000493771  Summaries of recent books in papers  What Drives Exponential Improvements, California Management Review, Spring 2013  Rapid Improvements with No Commercial Production: How do the improvements occur, forthcoming, Research Policy
    • 130. "Explaining much about innovation that others have ignored, Funk helps us better understand how improvements in costs and performance occur with new technologies. While the conventional wisdom suggests that costs fall as cumulative production increases, Funk shows us that the reality of this relationship is different and more interesting. For example, technologies that benefit from reductions in scale (e.g., integrated circuits) have seen dramatic advances; finding these kinds of technologies (and products based on them) is a major task for R&D managers.“ —Christopher L. Magee, Professor and Director, Center for Innovation in Product Development, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
    • 131. Jeff Funk examines what it will take to realize the potential of new technologies for innovating out of the economic challenges that we face. He argues that many theories of innovation are incomplete, outdated, or just plain wrong, and that new insights are sorely needed to address such issues is how much time will be required to get alternative energy technologies to the mass market“ Anita M. McGahan, University of Toronto and Author of How Industries Evolve "Jeff Funk's provocative elaboration on Giovanni Dosi's notion of technology paradigms calls for a fundamental re-examination of conventional management wisdom about technologies and technology evolutions. In particular, Funk's clear exposition of the supply-side technology dynamics that drive disruptive innovations provides a long overdue corrective to the demand-side story widely advanced by Clayton Christensen, for example. More generally, Funk's framework for analyzing and predicting future technology trajectories establishes a new and essential perspective for both technology strategists and technology policymakers."—Ron Sanchez Copenhagen Business School
    • 132. "Without resorting to singular case studies, Funk takes a sophisticated approach to characterizing techno- logical emergence and change, and the role that governments play in developmental trajectories. He builds a descriptive model using a historical analytical approach to reinterpret data from a host of industries. Based on this model, the book takes a daring a daring step to speculate on future technological developments in energy and electronics, providing sobering advice to those who think that government intervention is the panacea for national innovation.“ —Phillip Phan, Professor and Interim Dean, The Johns Hopkins Carey Business School "In this vitally important advance in the analysis of innovation, Funk explores the limits of learning curves as a mere function of forced or subsidized volumes. Learning has to be real, integrated, and multifaceted in order to benefit from different paths to improvement in cost and performance. Trenchantly demonstrating the need for multi-dimensional, supply side innovation in the case of clean energy, he shows the futility of our current demand-side focus."—George Gilder, venture capitalist
    • 133. Session 4: ICs and Electronic Systems Computer assistants for doctors: How would you assess the costs and benefits of implementing computer assistants and when they will become widely used (>10% of doctors in Singapore)? Free Routing of Aircraft: How would you assess the costs and benefits from free routing of planes and when this will become widely used in the U.S. or Europe? Home Automation: How would you assess the costs and benefits from enabling control of lights, air con, doors, and windows with your mobile phone and when this will become widely done in Singapore (>10% of new homes)? CNT for transistors: How would you assess the costs and benefits of using CNTs for transistors and when they will become widely used (>10% of transistors)? ReRAM: How would you assess the costs and benefits of ReRAM for flash memory and when they will become widely used (>10% of flash memory)?
    • 134. Session 6, sensors and IoT: Wireless Sensors: How would you assess the types of wireless sensors that should be implemented for a specific application (choose factories, offices, homes, or public spaces), the costs and benefits of implementing these sensors, and when such sensors will be implemented? Health Care with Phones: How would you assess the ways in which individuals will monitor their health care with their phones, the costs and benefits of having these phones, and when such phones will be widely used (>10% of phone users) in Singapore? GPS in vehicles and phones: How would you assess the costs and benefits of tracking vehicles and phones (for example, for finding lost or stolen phones and vehicles) and when this will be widely done (>10% of new phones and vehicles) in Singapore? Environmental sensors in phones: How would you assess the types of environmental data that mobile phones should gather, the costs and benefits of having phones gather this data, and when such phones will become widely used (>10% of users) in Singapore? Tricorders: How would you assess the functions that tricorders should have, their costs and benefits, and when they will become widely used in Singapore (>10% of doctors)?
    • 135. Session 7, Lighting and Displays Smart Lighting: How would you assess the costs and benefits of smart lighting and when it will become widely used in Singapore (>10% of public lights)? Self-propelled fish farms: How would you assess the costs and benefits of self- propelled submersible fish farms and when they will become widely used (>10% of fish consumption)? OLEDs: How would you assess the costs and benefits of OLED-based displays or televisions and when they will become widely used (>10% of people) in Singapore? Wall displays: How would you assess the costs and benefits of wall displays and when they will become widely used (>10% of households) in Singapore? Refrigerator displays: How would you assess the costs and benefits of refrigerator displays and when they will become widely used (>10% of households) in Singapore?
    • 136. Session 8, Human Computer Interface Google Glasses: How would you assess the costs and benefits of Google Glasses and when they might become widely used (>10% of people) in Singapore? Augmented reality with tablets or smart phones: How would you assess the costs and benefits of augmented reality-based tablets or smart phones and when they will become widely used (>10% of people) in Singapore? Augmented reality with car windshield: How would you assess the costs and benefits of augmented reality-based car windshields and when they will become widely used (>10% of people) in Singapore? Gesture interfaces: How would you assess the costs and benefits of gesture interfaces and when they will become widely used (>10% of people) in Singapore? Flexible wrist display: How would you assess the costs and benefits of flexible wrist displays and when they will become widely used (>10% of people) in Singapore?
    • 137. Session 9, IT and Transportation GPS and buses: How would you assess the costs and benefits of implementing GPS for buses in Singapore and when they will become widely used (>10% of buses and bus riders) in Singapore? Mobile phones as tickets for trains and buses: How would you assess the costs and benefits of using mobile phones for trains and buses in Singapore and when will it become widely done (>10% of bus and train rides) in Singapore? Free Wi-Fi on buses and trains in Singapore: How would you assess the costs and benefits of providing free Wi-Fi on trains and buses in Singapore and when this occur (>10% of buses and train rides) in Singapore? Bike sharing: How would you assess the costs and benefits of implementing bike sharing in Singapore and when this might be widely done (>10% of Singaporeans) in Singapore? Autonomous vehicles in Singapore: How would you assess the costs and benefits of dedicating autonomous vehicles in Singapore and when this might occur (>10% of vehicles) in Singapore? Electrification of vehicles: How would you assess the costs and benefits of electronic controls for automobiles and when they might become widely used (>10% of cars) in Singapore. Electric vehicles: How would you assess the costs and benefits of electric vehicles in Singapore, the advantages of wired vs. wireless charging, and when electric vehicles might become widely used (>10% of cars) in Singapore.
    • 138. Session 10: DNA sequencing and solar cells DNA sequencing and synthesizing for designing crops: How would you assess the costs and benefits of using DNA sequencing and synthesizing for designing crops (or new materials) and when they might become widely used (>10% of research) in the US or Europe? DNA sequencers for high schools: How would you assess the costs and benefits of placing DNA sequencers in high schools and when this might happen (>10% of schools) in Singapore? Solar cells for Singapore: How would you assess the costs and benefits of implementing solar cells in Singapore and when greater than 10% of electricity in Singapore might be from solar cells? Flexible Perovskite solar cells: How would you estimate when Perovskite solar cells have lower costs per peak Watt than $0.10 (USD)? Organic solar cells: How would you estimate when organic solar cells have lower costs per peak Watt than $0.10 (USD)? Solar cars: How would you assess the costs and benefits of powering cars by solar cells and when this might happen in Australia (>10% of cars)?

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