Future Usage of Superconductivity

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These slides describe the rates of technological progress in superconductors and how this progress continues to expand the applications for superconductivity. Already established in MRI, the falling cost of superconductors and other improvements is making them economically feasible for energy transmission. Finding materials that exhibit superconductivity at higher temperatures and with higher currents and magnetic fields will expand the applications to an even larger number of applications

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Future Usage of Superconductivity

  1. 1. A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore For information on other technologies, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
  2. 2. Source: PhysicaC: Superconductivity Volume 484, 15 January 2013, Pages 1–5 Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Superconductivity (ISS2011) How are these improvements changing the economics of superconductivity? in-plane grain alignment enabled higher current densities; achieved with ion beam assisted deposition, rolling-assisted biaxiallytextured substrates
  3. 3. http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/superconducting-magnets-for- grid-scale.html Will These Improvements Make Superconductors Economically Feasible for Energy Applications?
  4. 4. Bit Energy = power consumed per clock period x number of active devices RSFQ: rapid single flux quantum, relies on quantum effects in superconducting devices Source: superconductivity web21, January 16, 2012. www.istec.or.jp/web21/pdf/12_Winter/E15.pdf How are these improvements changing the economics of superconductivity for electronic applications?
  5. 5. How are these improvements changing the economics of quantum computers? Source: Science, Vol339, 8 March 2013, pp. 1169-1174
  6. 6. http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/05/dwave-512-qubit-quantum-computer-faster.html; http://www.dwavesys.com/en/dev-tutorial-hardware.html How is this changing the economics of Quantum Computers?
  7. 7. Session Technology 1 Objectives and overview of course 2 When do new technologies become economically feasible? 3 Two types of improvements: 1) Creating materials that better exploit physical phenomena;2) Geometrical scaling 4 Semiconductors, ICs, electronic systems, big data analytics 5 MEMS and Bio-electronics 6 Lighting, Lasers, and Displays 7 Information Technology and Land Transportation 8 Human-Computer Interfaces, Biometrics 9 Superconductivityand Solar Cells 10 Nanotechnology and DNA sequencing This is Ninth Session of MT5009
  8. 8. Characteristics of superconducting materials ◦zero electrical resistance ◦expulsion of magnetic fields Most superconducting materials do so at very low temperatures (-250C) and thus phenomenon was not useful until the last few decades Challenges: existing materials ◦only super-conduct at low temperatures (-100C) ◦do not carry sufficient magnetic fields or currents ◦are expensive
  9. 9. Evidence of High Magnetic Fields http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrdbNLT-9Cc(1:00 –1:30 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lCZVPROkB8E(zero –1:30) http://www.cnn.com/2014/08/29/tech/innovation/can- levitating-appliances-take-off/index.html
  10. 10. Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomenon Geometrical scaling ◦Increases in scale ◦Reductions in scale Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components” A summary of these ideas can be found in 1)California Management Review, What Drives Exponential Improvements? Spring 2013 2)book from Stanford University Press, Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries, 2013
  11. 11. Creating materials (and their associated processes) that better exploit physical phenomena; finding/creating materials that ◦superconductat higher temperatures ◦enable high magnetic fields ◦carry high currents (i.e., critical current) ◦are easy to fabricate Geometrical scaling ◦To what extent will increases in the scale of production equipment lead to lower costs? Some technologies directly experience improvements while others indirectly experience them through improvements in “components” ◦Better superconducting materials may lead to better MRI, electricity distribution, computers, maglev, fusion
  12. 12. Increases in performance (temperature, magnetic fields, current densities) Examples of large or potentially large applications ◦Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) ◦Energy Distribution and Transmission ◦Electronic devices and computing ◦Magnetic levitating trains ◦Fusion Room temperature superconductors? Conclusions
  13. 13. http://users.humboldt.edu/mross/project_ross2.html Increases in maximum temperature at which superconducting occurs
  14. 14. Another Look at Increases in temperature… http://www.ccas-web.org/superconductivity/
  15. 15. Organic Superconductivity, Denis Jerome, Chapter 5, in Superconductivity in New Materials, ed. by Z. Fisk and H. R. Ott(Elsevier, 2010) Log Plot of Increases in Maximum Temperature at which…..
  16. 16. But maximum magnetic fields and currents are also important Too high of magnetic fields or currents cause superconducting phenomenon to end, i.e., resistance to dramatically increase How have maximum magnetic fields and currents been improved? ◦It’s actually quite controversial
  17. 17. http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198570547.001.0001/acprof-9780198570547-chapter-9 Temperature, Magnetic Field and Current density are related
  18. 18. Most Materials can only maintain High magnetic fields and current Densities at low temperatures
  19. 19. Particularly in YBaCuOtape and BiSrCaCuO2212 But improvements are hard to see No good time series data
  20. 20. http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/05/10-tesla-superconductors-could-enable.html
  21. 21. Increases in performance (temperature, magnetic fields, current densities) Examples of large or potentially large applications ◦Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) ◦Energy Distribution and Transmission ◦Electronic devices and computing ◦Magnetic levitating trains ◦Fusion Room temperature superconductors? Conclusions
  22. 22. http://www.economist.com/node/21540385, Dec 3, 2011, Resistance is Futile New Superconducting Materials Have Created Markets, first in MRIs
  23. 23. The Major Cost of Magnetic Resonance Imaging is the Magnets
  24. 24. Can be smaller and thus cheaper than conventional magnets ◦Also less energy loss Most are composed of niobium-titanium ◦critical temperature of 10 Kelvin ◦can Superconductup to about 15 Tesla More expensive magnets can be made of niobium-tin (Nb3Sn) ◦Critical Temperature of 18 K ◦When operating at 4.2 K, can maintain magnetic field intensity up to 25 to 30 Tesla ◦Unfortunately, difficult to make filaments from them Vanadium-gallium is another material used for the high field inserts Source: Wikipedia entry on superconducting magnet
  25. 25. Increases in performance (temperature, magnetic fields, current densities) Examples of large or potentially large applications ◦Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) ◦Energy Distribution and Transmission ◦Electronic devices and computing ◦Magnetic levitating trains ◦Fusion Room temperature superconductors? Conclusions
  26. 26. Can be used in transmission cables or in windings for motors, generators, transformers Have lower energy losses than do conventional materials such as copper Do not require cooling oils, which have risk of fire
  27. 27. Enable smaller and thus potentially cheaper generation, distribution, transmission of energy ◦Higher current densities in generator and motor windings and in transmission lines ◦Higher frequency and thus more compact transformers ◦Ideal for high population densities (some installed in NYC) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBtQvaLKzA0 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QuU9-jBo3U http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a06TNIgbFnk
  28. 28. richard.grisel.free.fr/ICEM2012/TUTORIALS/TUT5.pdf Some Applications Require Higher Currents and Magnetic Fields than do Others Critical Current Magnetic Field
  29. 29. Source: PhysicaC: Superconductivity Volume 484, 15 January 2013, Pages 1–5 Proceedings of the 24th International Symposium on Superconductivity (ISS2011) Improvements in BSCCO and YBCO superconducting wires/tapes in-plane grain alignment enabled higher current densities; achieved with ion beam assisted deposition, rolling-assisted biaxiallytextured substrates
  30. 30. Growth of thick YBzCuOlayers via a barium Fluoride process, superconducting science and Technology, vol26, no. 1 Improvements in Current of YBCO tapes Making them thicker without reducing current density Through better processes
  31. 31. Source: CIGRÉ SC D1 WG38 Workshop on High Temperature Superconductors (HTS) for Utility Applications Beijing, China, 26 April 2013 Improvements in Price Price of copper was 15-25$/kA-meter Do reductions in size justify the increases in price?
  32. 32. Source: 'CAST Report : The Future of Superconducting Applications' Jan. 31. 2011 Power capacity is 100 MWA for conventional transformerWhat About Transformers? Increases in size of them
  33. 33. 35 •Amount of energy stored is function of Current Squared E = ½ LI2 •Thus, increases in current can lead to very large increases in energy storage density •Very fast discharge rates since no electrical resistanceGood News •Current price is $50,000/kWh •100 times the price of energy storage with lead acid batteries ($30/kWh) •100 times lower price is needed, which could come from 10 times increase in current densitiesBad News Source: Renewable Energy Technologies, Jean-Claude Sabonnadi, http://www.scribd.com/doc/148085576/Renewable-Energy-Technologies
  34. 34. http://nextbigfuture.com/2011/03/superconducting-magnets-for- grid-scale.html Improvements in Magnetic Field and Temperature Open New Applications
  35. 35. Can we charge vehicles while they move on highways? Wireless charging is getting cheaper through advances in power electronics ◦Cheaper MOSFETs reduce cost of wireless charging and frequent recharging reduces necessary size of batteries ◦Qualcomm and other firms offer systems Vehicles are also getting lighter through use of electronic controls, which are also enabled through improvements in power electronics ◦Reduces necessary size of batteries Can superconducting cables help us move to wireless charging on highways?
  36. 36. Increases in performance (temperature, magnetic fields, current densities) Examples of large or potentially large applications ◦Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) ◦Energy Distribution and Transmission ◦Electronic devices and computing ◦Magnetic levitating trains ◦Fusion Room temperature superconductors? Conclusions
  37. 37. Placing a thin insulating barrier between two superconductors constitutes a Josephson junction Josephson effect is form of quantum tunneling but with superconducting Cooper Pairs, instead of electrons Josephson junctions can be implemented in rapid single flux quantum (RSFQ) chips ◦digital information is carried by magnetic flux quanta instead of by voltages and currents ◦Advantages are faster speeds and much lower energy consumption
  38. 38. http://pavel.physics.sunysb.edu/RSFQ/Research/WhatIs/rsfqwf1.gif Improvements in Electronic Circuits in Early 2000s
  39. 39. Bit Energy = power consumed per clock period x number of active devices RSFQ: rapid single flux quantum, relies on quantum effects in superconducting devices Source: superconductivity web21, January 16, 2012. www.istec.or.jp/web21/pdf/12_Winter/E15.pdf Improvements in Power Consumption and Speed
  40. 40. Unlike conventional computers, each “Qbit” can be both in 0 or 1 according to a probability distribution Thus, Qubitscan hold more information than can conventional bits and this advantage increases as number of Qubitsincrease This “superposition” also means quantum computers can perform many calculations simultaneously Qubitsrepresent atoms, ions, photons or electrons that act together as computer memory and processor ◦But superconducting Josephson Junctions may be best approach One major challenge: quantum system needs to hold one bit of quantum information long enough for it to be written, manipulated, and read http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3TOWanwuO8
  41. 41. Improvements in QbitLifetime and Number of Bits Per QbitLifetime Source: Science, Vol339, 8 March 2013, pp. 1169-1174
  42. 42. Photograph of a chip constructed by D-Wave Systems Inc., mounted and wire-bonded in a sample holder. The D-Wave processor is designed to use 128superconductinglogic elements that exhibit controllable and tunable coupling to perform operations. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_computer
  43. 43. Developed quantum computers that use “adiabatic quantum computing” to solve certain types of optimization problems Comparisons show faster computation times with D-Wave’s computer than with conventional computers Good at solving complex optimization problems that are difficult for conventional computers ◦shipping logistics, flight scheduling ◦search optimization (Google bought one in May 2013) ◦DNA analysis and encryption Nature, Vol498, 20 June 2013, pp. 286-288
  44. 44. http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/05/dwave-512-qubit-quantum-computer-faster.html; http://www.dwavesys.com/en/dev-tutorial-hardware.html
  45. 45. http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/05/dwave-512-qubit-quantum-computer-faster.html
  46. 46. In tests last September, an independent researcher found that for some types of problems the D-Wave quantum computer was 3,600 times fasterthan a traditional Intel Quadcoreworkstation (2.4 Ghzquadcorechips with 16 GB of memory and about 420 GFlops) According to a D-Wave official, the machine performed even better in Google’s tests, which involved 500 variables with different constraints. “The tougher, more complex ones had better performance,” said Colin Williams, D-Wave’s director of business development. “For most problems, it was 11,000 times faster, but in the more difficult 50 percent, it was 33,000 times faster. In the top 25 percent, it was 50,000 times faster. http://nextbigfuture.com/2013/05/dwave-512- qubit-quantum-computer-faster.html
  47. 47. Quantum or not, controversial computer yields no speedup: Conventional computer ties D-Wave machine Science 20 June 2014, Vol344, Issue 6190 D-Wave says the test was not complex enough to demonstrate Quantum Computer advantages
  48. 48. Increases in performance (temperature, magnetic fields, current densities) Examples of large or potentially large applications ◦Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) ◦Energy Distribution and Transmission ◦Electronic devices and computing ◦Magnetic levitating trains ◦Fusion Room temperature superconductors? Conclusions
  49. 49. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tvIZyyNJnAQ
  50. 50. Requirements for superconducting materials ◦Current density greater than 105 A/cm2 ◦Magnetic field greater than 1 T at 77K ◦Long wire lengths (> 100 m) so that windings need not be formed in multiple sections ◦Strength can withstand Lorentz forces and forces due to thermal expansion ◦Robustness to AC losses, wire uniformity, and quenching ◦Ductile Wire that can withstand bending during the coil winding process First two OK, last three not OK? Source: Mark Thompson, PhD Thesis, MIT, http://www.thompsonrd.com/Research/chapter1.htm
  51. 51. Have announced they will build 286 km maglev train line between Tokyo and Nagoya ◦Service start scheduled for 2027 ◦581 km per hour, faster than existing 320 km/hour ◦Reduces travel time from 100 to 40 minutes Cost is $100 billion or $300 Million per km ◦partly due to high cost of tunnels ◦86% of distance is tunnels Typical cost of conventional railway is $20 Million per km Japanese are trying to convince the U.S. to build a line between NY and Washington DC http://edition.cnn.com/2013/12/08/business/japan-on-the-road-maglev/index.html?hpt=wo_bn1 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ltqp4McM2wY (from 2 minutes)
  52. 52. Increases in performance (temperature, magnetic fields, current densities) Examples of large or potentially large applications ◦Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) ◦Energy Distribution and Transmission ◦Electronic devices and computing ◦Magnetic levitating trains ◦Fusion–uses superconducting magnetics to “confine” the sun Room temperature superconductors? Conclusions
  53. 53. http://larouchepac.com/node/14726 Fusion is Further in the Future: Uses Superconducting Magnetics to Confine the Sun Benefits from Further Increases in Magnetic Fields
  54. 54. But stronger magnetic fields and thus better superconducting magnets increase the economic feasibility of fusion Source: http://www.plasma.inpe.br/LAP_Portal/ LAP_Site/Text/Tokamaks.htm Fusion is Further in the Future
  55. 55. Increases in performance (temperature, magnetic fields, current densities) Examples of large or potentially large applications ◦Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) ◦Fusion ◦Magnetic levitating trains ◦Electronic devices ◦Other energy, including energy transmission Room Temperature Superconductors? Conclusions
  56. 56. UPDATE:Announcement of room temperature superconductors from highly compressed silicon and hydrogen was premature in journal Science by Saskatchewan, Canada and German researchers. The transition temperature was low for the data that they had but they believe there is pressure zone that performs better
  57. 57. In October of 2007, superconductivity near 175K was detected at ambient pressure in an Sn-In-Tm intergrowth. By doping roughly 28% of the Snatomic sites of that molecule with Pb, Tcis increased further to 181K (183K magnetic). The revised chemical formula thus becomes (Sn1.0Pb0.4In0.6)Ba4Tm5Cu7O20+ with a 1245/1212 (non-stoichiometric) structure Source: http://superconductors.org/175K_pat.htm
  58. 58. Current Applied Physics, Volume 1, Issue 1, January 2001, Pages 9–14
  59. 59. Cost and performance of superconductivity continues to improve How many further improvements are likely to be made from ◦Creating materials that better exploit the phenomena of superconductivity in terms of higher temperatures, currents, and magnetic fields? ◦Creating processes that enable the production, including low-cost production of these materials? ◦Increasing the scale of the production equipment?
  60. 60. What do these improvements mean for new applications? ◦Computing? Energy transmission? ◦Magnetic Levitating Trains? Fusion? As improvements in superconductors occur, when will these new applications become possible and at what rate might they diffuse? What kind of analyses can help us understand these issues What kinds of opportunities will emerge for firms?
  61. 61. Appendix
  62. 62. Superconductor Technologies Inc (STI), Presentation, September 2012
  63. 63. To gain some insight consider a breakdown by major components of both HTSC and LTSC coils corresponding to three typical stored energy levels, 2, 20 and 200 MW·h. The conductor cost dominates the three costs for all HTSC cases and is particularly important at small sizes. The principal reason lies in the comparative current density of LTSC and HTSC materials. The critical current (Jc) of HTSC wire is lower than LTSC wire generally in the operating magnetic field, about 5 to 10teslas(T). Assume the wire costs are the same by weight. Because HTSC wire has lower (Jc) value than LTSC wire, it will take much more wire to create the same inductance. Therefore, the cost of wire is much higher than LTSC wire. Also, as the SMES size goes up from 2 to 20 to 200MW·h, the LTSC conductor cost also goes up about a factor of 10 at each step. The HTSC conductor cost rises a little slower but is still by far the costliest item.
  64. 64. http://www.conectus.org/market.html
  65. 65. richard.grisel.free.fr/ICEM2012/TUTORIALS/TUT5.pdf
  66. 66. richard.grisel.free.fr/ICEM2012/TUTORIALS/TUT5.pdf
  67. 67. Superconductor Technologies Inc (STI), Presentation, September 2012
  68. 68. richard.grisel.free.fr/ICEM2012/TUTORIALS/TUT5.pdf
  69. 69. richard.grisel.free.fr/ICEM2012/TUTORIALS/TUT5.pdf
  70. 70. richard.grisel.free.fr/ICEM2012/TUTORIALS/TUT5.pdf

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