How is Technological ChangeCreating New Opportunities in   Lighting and Displays?   8th Session of MT5009          A/Prof ...
Objectives• What has and is driving improvements in cost and  performance of lighting and display systems?• Can we use suc...
This is the Eighth Session in MT5009Session Technology1      Objectives and overview of course2      Four methods of achie...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (1) Technology            Basic Operation                              Meth...
Incandescent Lights• It’s not just their poor  efficiencies (most of  the power is emitted  as heat or non-visible  electr...
Fluorescent Lighting• Better efficiencies; e.g.,  low pressure mercury   – emits about 65% in 254 nm     line (visible) an...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (2)Technology       Basic Operation                    Basic Methods of Imp...
Different Materials for LEDs Emit Different Wavelengths                and thus Different Colors Typical LED Characteristi...
Semiconductor Lasers are LEDs with a Waveguide and MirrorLaser types shown above the wavelength bar emit light with a spec...
Luminosity per Watt (lm/W) for Various Lighting TechnologiesSource: Jeffrey Tsao (Sandia) and Aaron Danner (NUS)
Source: NTT develops current-injection photonic-crystal laserhttp://www.physorg.com/news/2012-02-ntt-current-injection-pho...
Average Selling Price (ASP) and Continuous Wave (CW) Power of Semiconductor Lasers have risen
Both reductions and increases in scale drive Cost                  Reductions Through-hole LED                         Sur...
PicoLED: The World Smallest LED Introduced by ROHM Semiconductor, Japan, in year 2007, with the  footprint of 1.0x0.6x0.2...
Are there Limits?• What are the limits to improvements in  efficiencies with existing and new technologies?   – The maximu...
Warm whiteCool whiteDaylight white
But initial cost ofsolid state lightingis higher!
What about Organic LEDs (OLEDs)
OLEDs• Will these improvements in luminosity per  Watt continue?• How about costs?  – Organic materials can be roll printe...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
We are trying to use the same connectors for LEDs and                   incandescent bulbs.   How about creating a new int...
Furthermore• How about using the electronic nature of  LEDs to devise intelligent lighting systems  – Lights that can be d...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (1) Technology            Basic Operation                              Meth...
Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (2)Technology       Basic Operation                      Basic Methods of I...
Limits to Miniaturization (e.g., thinner)*                                          (current ranking)Greater potential for...
Major components of LCD TV                                           Current                                              ...
How to achieve White Color LEDRGB White LED                              Phosphor Based White LED•   Mixture of Red, Green...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Increases in Scale of IC Wafers, LCD     Substrates, Solar Substrates (1)• Equipment costs per area of output fall as size...
Increases in Scale of IC Wafers, LCD      Substrates, Solar Substrates (2)• Wafer size for ICs has steadily risen over the...
Another Benefit from Large Panels is Smaller Edge Effects      Equipment                            Panel     Effect Effec...
Increases in LCD Substrate SizeSource: www.lcd-tv-reviews.com/pages/fabricating_tft_lcd.php
Scale of photographic aligners (upper left),sputtering equipment (top right), andmirrors for aligners (lower left) for LCD...
Cost Reductions for Semiconductors, LCDs, and Solar CellsTechnology               Dimension              Time Frame       ...
Display Panel Trends – towards larger and               cheaper panels• Nishimura’s   Law:   – The size of LCD substrate g...
• We can also see the falling cost of LCDs  in the falling price of LCD TVs, albeit some  of the cost reductions are comin...
Source: Bing Zhang, Display Search, Flat Panel TV CostAnalysis & Panel Supply-Demand , May 20, 2008
Prices and Costs of LCD Panels per Square Meter      6                                   (Thousands of US$)      5      4 ...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D GlassesSources forthese slides:Adapted frompresentation byNg Pei Sin
Improvements in Frame-Rate are Occurring                                                                      300         ...
Improvements in Frame Rate Increase the  Economic Feasibility of Time Sequential 3D• Improvement in Liquid Crystal  respon...
Auto-Stereoscopic Displays Does not require special 3D  glasses Panel pixels are divided into two  groups   one for lef...
Increases in Pixel Density, i.e., Resolution• Improvements in photolithographic equipment enable  increases in pixel densi...
Auto-Stereoscopic Displays• At least128 million pixels/sq inch are  needed   – 8.3 million pixels needed for high-definiti...
Other Factors Driving Economic Feasibility:  Standardization and Digitization of Video• Standardization and  digitalizatio...
Other Factors Driving Economic     Feasibility: Better graphic processors Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Another Option is an OLED•   OLED: Organic Light Emitting    Diode•   Made of organic (Carbon based)    materials that emi...
OLEDs also have fewer Layers than LCDs and      thus potentially less expensive              LCD                          ...
Performance of LEDs and OLEDs Over Times
One Problem with OLEDs is their Lifespan• Average life span of about 30,000hours of viewing, half of LCD TVs60,000 hours.•...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Outline• Lighting  – Incandescent and fluorescent  – Light emitting diodes (LEDs)  – “System” lighting issues• Displays  –...
Holographic Systems• Present a real 3D image• LCD-based 3D systems present an “illusion” of  three dimensions  – Time-Sequ...
• When might such a system become  technically and economically feasible for  some application and some set of users?
Conclusions (1)• New types of lighting & displays continue to emerge  – Lighting: LEDs, OLEDs  – Displays: 3D LCDs, OLEDs,...
Conclusions (2)• The rate of improvements in the performance and  cost of these systems suggests that  – LED-based lightin...
Relevant Questions for Your Projects• To what extent will improvements in ICs,  displays, and other component technologies...
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?
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Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?

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These slides discuss how new forms of lighting and displays continue to emerge and become more economically feasible. For lighting, while compact fluorescent light bulbs are starting to diffuse, improvements in the luminosity per Watt of LEDs (light-emitting diodes) and increases in the scale of LED-based wafers suggest that LEDs (and perhaps organic LEDs) will eventually diffuse and create a number of entrepreneurial opportunities. For displays, increases in the scale of LCD (liquid crystal display) substrates and production equipment have driven and continue to drive dramatic reductions in the cost of LCDs. Second, improvements in the frame rate and pixel density of LCDs are gradually making 3D LCDs economically feasible. Third, improvements in the luminosity per Watt of OLED- (organic light-emitting diodes) based displays are gradually making them more economically feasible. All of these changes will probably lead to the emergence of many kinds of entrepreneurial opportunities. These slides are based on a forthcoming book entitled “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries and they are the eighth session in a course entitled “Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities.”

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Lighting and Displays: How is Technology Change Creating New Opportunities in Them?

  1. 1. How is Technological ChangeCreating New Opportunities in Lighting and Displays? 8th Session of MT5009 A/Prof Jeffrey FunkDivision of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore
  2. 2. Objectives• What has and is driving improvements in cost and performance of lighting and display systems?• Can we use such information to – identify new types of lighting and display systems? – analyze potential for improvements in these new systems? – compare new and old systems now and in future? – better understand when new systems might become technically and economically feasible? – analyze the opportunities created by these new systems? – understand technology change in general
  3. 3. This is the Eighth Session in MT5009Session Technology1 Objectives and overview of course2 Four methods of achieving improvements in performance and cost: 1) improving efficiency; 2) radical new processes; 3) geometric scaling; 4) improvements in “key” components (e.g., ICs)3 Semiconductors, ICs, new forms of transistors, electronic systems4 Bio-electronics, tissue engineering, and health care5 MEMS, nano-technology and programmable matter6 Telecommunications and Internet7 Human-computer interfaces, virtual and augmented reality8 Lighting and displays9 Energy and transportation10 Solar cells and wind turbines
  4. 4. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  5. 5. Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (1) Technology Basic Operation Methods of Improvement within Technology Paradigm Electric arc Passing current across two Materials and gases with high ratio lights electrodes generates heat and light of luminosity to input power Electric Voltage difference across two electrodes or a filament connecting two discharge tubes electrodes in a vacuum causes emission of Incandescent visible light (as filament Filaments with high ratio of Lights incandesces) luminosity to input power Cathode ray electrons from one electrode (1) Cathodes that efficiently produce Tube where electrons striking electrons and phosphors that better phosphors cause photon emission fluoresce Fluorescent ultraviolet light; these high-energy Gases that efficiently emit Lights photons cause emission of visible ultraviolet light and phosphors that light when they strike phosphors better fluoresce Other lights visible light in gases such as Gases with high ratio of luminosity mercury or sodium vapor to input power(1) direction of electrodes can be controlled so that electrons hit certain phosphors
  6. 6. Incandescent Lights• It’s not just their poor efficiencies (most of the power is emitted as heat or non-visible electro-magnetic radiation)• It’s their high costs – Big connector, bulbs, filaments
  7. 7. Fluorescent Lighting• Better efficiencies; e.g., low pressure mercury – emits about 65% in 254 nm line (visible) and 10–20% of its light in 185 nm line (UV) – UV light is absorbed by the bulbs fluorescent coating (phosphors), which re- radiates the energy at longer “visible” wavelengths – blend of phosphors controls the color of light• But still high costs – Bulb – Connector – gases
  8. 8. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  9. 9. Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (2)Technology Basic Operation Basic Methods of Improvement within Technology ParadigmLight emitting Semiconductor diode emits light Semiconductors with high ratio ofdiodes (LEDs) when voltage is applied luminosity to input for LEDs and also high coherence for lasers. Reducing size can reduce cost.Semiconductor Semiconductor diode emits lightlaser “coherent” in single wavelength when voltage is applied Semiconductor laser is basically an LED with a waveguide and a mirror
  10. 10. Different Materials for LEDs Emit Different Wavelengths and thus Different Colors Typical LED Characteristics Semiconductor Wavelength Colour VF @ 20mA Material GaAs 850-940nm Infra-Red 1.2v GaAsP 630-660nm Red 1.8v GaAsP 605-620nm Amber 2.0v GaAsP:N 585-595nm Yellow 2.2v AlGaP 550-570nm Green 3.5v SiC 430-505nm Blue 3.6v GaInN 450nm White 4.0v
  11. 11. Semiconductor Lasers are LEDs with a Waveguide and MirrorLaser types shown above the wavelength bar emit light with a specificwavelength while ones below the bar can emit in a wavelength range. Non-semiconductor lasers are also shown in this figure
  12. 12. Luminosity per Watt (lm/W) for Various Lighting TechnologiesSource: Jeffrey Tsao (Sandia) and Aaron Danner (NUS)
  13. 13. Source: NTT develops current-injection photonic-crystal laserhttp://www.physorg.com/news/2012-02-ntt-current-injection-photonic-crystal-laser.html
  14. 14. Average Selling Price (ASP) and Continuous Wave (CW) Power of Semiconductor Lasers have risen
  15. 15. Both reductions and increases in scale drive Cost Reductions Through-hole LED Surface Mount LED• Lead frame based • Printed Circuit Board based• Advantages • Advantages  Low cost & easy rework  Size, thickness  Higher mechanical shock resistant  SMT process, more popular  Better light extraction with optic designed viewing angle • Disadvantage  Less immunity to environmental• Disadvantage  No optic design, customized  Size viewing angle  Complicated processIncreases in wafer and equipment size also drive reductions in cost
  16. 16. PicoLED: The World Smallest LED Introduced by ROHM Semiconductor, Japan, in year 2007, with the footprint of 1.0x0.6x0.2 mm
  17. 17. Are there Limits?• What are the limits to improvements in efficiencies with existing and new technologies? – The maximum theoretical efficiencies for LEDs are much higher than current efficiencies – This suggests that there are still opportunities for improvements – How about costs? Can they be further reduced?• Are their limits to miniaturizing the size of lights (and displays)? How small can lights be made (and how thin can displays be made)?• Will LEDs create a new paradigm for lighting by providing intelligent directional light?
  18. 18. Warm whiteCool whiteDaylight white
  19. 19. But initial cost ofsolid state lightingis higher!
  20. 20. What about Organic LEDs (OLEDs)
  21. 21. OLEDs• Will these improvements in luminosity per Watt continue?• How about costs? – Organic materials can be roll printed onto a substrate, making them potentially cheaper than that of LEDs, which require high temperature processing• What might be the initial applications for them?
  22. 22. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  23. 23. We are trying to use the same connectors for LEDs and incandescent bulbs. How about creating a new interface standard that ischeaper and better? (think of your computers and phones)
  24. 24. Furthermore• How about using the electronic nature of LEDs to devise intelligent lighting systems – Lights that can be directed to specific locations – Turn off when no one is near the light or looking at the specific location• ICs get cheaper and more intelligent every year
  25. 25. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  26. 26. Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (1) Technology Basic Operation Methods of Improvement within Technology Paradigm Electric arc Passing current across two Materials and gases with high ratio lights electrodes generates heat and light of luminosity to input power Electric Voltage difference across two electrodes or a filament connecting two discharge tubes electrodes in a vacuum causes emission of Incandescent visible light (as filament Filaments with high ratio of Lights incandesces) luminosity to input power Cathode ray electrons from one electrode (1) Cathodes that efficiently produce Tube where electrons striking electrons and phosphors that better phosphors cause photon emission fluoresce Fluorescent ultraviolet light; these high-energy Gases that efficiently emit Lights photons cause emission of visible ultraviolet light and phosphors that light when they strike phosphors better fluoresce Other lights visible light in gases such as Gases with high ratio of luminosity mercury or sodium vapor to input power(1) direction of electrodes can be controlled so that electrons hit certain phosphors
  27. 27. Technology Paradigms for Lighting and Displays (2)Technology Basic Operation Basic Methods of Improvement within Technology ParadigmLiquid crystal Alignment of crystals modulates an external light source (e.g., adisplay (LCD) backlight) where alignment of crystals depends on input voltage Passive output of pixel depends on Increase resolution with more voltage applied to row and pixels where improvements column via multiplexing limited by need to multiplex Active output of pixel depends on Increases in transistor density voltage applied to each improve resolution, viewing angle; pixel, i.e., transistor thinner materials lead to lower costOrganic light Organic materials emit light Materials that have high ratio ofemitting diode depending on input voltage and luminosity to input power. Use of(OLED) band-gap of material thinner layers reduce costs
  28. 28. Limits to Miniaturization (e.g., thinner)* (current ranking)Greater potential for making As Lights As Displays smaller and thinner Electric Cathode ray tubes discharge tubes LEDs Liquid Crystal Displays (with cold cathode fluorescent backlight) Liquid Crystal Displays (with LED backlight) Organic Light Emitting Diode OLED: emit their own light, so now backlighting is needed *Remember that costs typically fall over the long term as size is reduced
  29. 29. Major components of LCD TV Current challenge for LCD TVs: CCFL Backlit LCD TV CCFL Backlight Replace this layer (cold cathode Diffusers fluorescent To ensure a uniform brightness across panel light) Polarizer (78.6 mm) To ensure that the image produced is aligned correctly with white- LCD Panel light LEDs An LCD panel is made up of millions of pixels filled with liquid crystals arranged (29.9 mm) in grid, which open and shut to let the backlight through and create images Antiglare Coating Provides a mirror-like finish, making the backlight appear brighter Display Screen
  30. 30. How to achieve White Color LEDRGB White LED Phosphor Based White LED• Mixture of Red, Green & Blue • Involved coating of an blue LED color to get white color LED. with phosphor of different colors to• Involved electro-optical design to produce white light. control blending & diffusion of • Fraction of blue light undergoes different colors the Stokes Shift being transformed shorter wavelength to longer wavelength. Phosphor LED Die RGB Color Chart Phosphor Based White LED Spectrum of Phosphor LED
  31. 31. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  32. 32. Increases in Scale of IC Wafers, LCD Substrates, Solar Substrates (1)• Equipment costs per area of output fall as size of equipment is increased, similar to chemical plants – Cost is function of surface area (or radius squared) – Output is function of volume (radius cubed) – Thus, costs increase by 2/3 for each doubling of equipment capacity• For IC Wafers, LCD Substrates, Solar Substrates – Processing, transfer time (inverse of output) fall as volume of gas, liquid, and reaction chambers become larger; costs rise as function of equipment’s surface area – partly because larger scale enables higher temperature and pressure
  33. 33. Increases in Scale of IC Wafers, LCD Substrates, Solar Substrates (2)• Wafer size for ICs has steadily risen over the last 50 years – Now at 12” – Expected move to 18” in next few years• Techniques for miniaturizing patterns on IC wafers have required firms to also reduce the thickness of materials that are deposited (and later patterned) on wafers and LCD/Solar substrates• The result is costs per transistor, capital costs per transistor, and even costs per area of a silicon wafer and LCD and solar cell substrate have fallen over the last 50 years even as the cost of fabrication facilities has increased
  34. 34. Another Benefit from Large Panels is Smaller Edge Effects Equipment Panel Effect Effects: the equipment must be much wider than panel to achieve uniformity Ratio of equipment to panel width falls as the size of the panel is increased
  35. 35. Increases in LCD Substrate SizeSource: www.lcd-tv-reviews.com/pages/fabricating_tft_lcd.php
  36. 36. Scale of photographic aligners (upper left),sputtering equipment (top right), andmirrors for aligners (lower left) for LCDequipmentSource: http://www.canon.com/technology/canon_tech/explanation/fpd.html
  37. 37. Cost Reductions for Semiconductors, LCDs, and Solar CellsTechnology Dimension Time Frame Ratio of New to Old CostSemiconductors/ Price/ 1970-2005 1/15,000,000ICs Transistor Price/Area 1970-2005 1/20 Price/Area 1995-2005 1/5.7LCDs Price/Area 1995-2005 1/20Solar cells Price/Watt 1957-2003 1/500 Price/Watt 1975-2001 1/45.4 Price/area 1970-2001 1/37.0 Price/area 1995-2001 1/3.42 Sources: (Gay, 2008; ICKnowledge, 2009; Kurzweil, 2005; Nemet, 2006), author‟s analysis
  38. 38. Display Panel Trends – towards larger and cheaper panels• Nishimura’s Law: – The size of LCD substrate grows by a factor of 1.8 every 3 years, doubles every 3.6 years (large panels are cut into appropriate sizes for electronic products) – Less than half the time for IC wafers to double in size (7.5 years)• Odawara’s Law: – Costs fall by 22-23% for doubling in cumulative production• Kichihara’s Law: every three years – Power consumption decreases by 44% – Panel thickness and weight are reduced by one-third – Number of bits needed per screen increases fourfold Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)
  39. 39. • We can also see the falling cost of LCDs in the falling price of LCD TVs, albeit some of the cost reductions are coming from the falling costs of ICs
  40. 40. Source: Bing Zhang, Display Search, Flat Panel TV CostAnalysis & Panel Supply-Demand , May 20, 2008
  41. 41. Prices and Costs of LCD Panels per Square Meter 6 (Thousands of US$) 5 4 3 Average selling price 2 1 Production costs 0 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11Source: Television Making: Cracking Up, Economist, January 21st, 2012, p. 66
  42. 42. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  43. 43. Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D GlassesSources forthese slides:Adapted frompresentation byNg Pei Sin
  44. 44. Improvements in Frame-Rate are Occurring 300 Display Frame-Rate 250 Frame per seconds (Hz) 200 120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate CRT 150 for „flicker-free‟ Time-sequential 3D LCD 100 OLED/Plasma 50 0 1970s 1995 2008 2010• Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame rate has no perceived benefit) – 60Hz. – Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos• Increased Frame-rate of Display – Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point• Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved frame rate of content• Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell- gap, and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time
  45. 45. Improvements in Frame Rate Increase the Economic Feasibility of Time Sequential 3D• Improvement in Liquid Crystal response time enable: – High frame-rate in LCD display and in active 3D glasses• Economical – Estimated cost of adding 3D to LCD display range from 10% to 30% the cost of panel – Falling costs from larger substrate size can offset these higher costs• But glasses are a big disadvantage……….
  46. 46. Auto-Stereoscopic Displays Does not require special 3D glasses Panel pixels are divided into two groups  one for left-eye images  another for right-eye images A filter element is used to focus each pixel into a viewing zone In order to view television from different places in the room, multiple viewing zones are needed
  47. 47. Increases in Pixel Density, i.e., Resolution• Improvements in photolithographic equipment enable increases in pixel density – lags resolution in ICs by many years• Sometimes called Kitahara’s Law, improvements of about 4 times occur every 3 years• These increases in pixel density – Enable high definition television – But will exceed the resolution of our eyes• Thus, these increases can be used to assign different pixels – to right and left eye and – to different “viewing” zones
  48. 48. Auto-Stereoscopic Displays• At least128 million pixels/sq inch are needed – 8.3 million pixels needed for high-definition TV – at least eight viewing zones needed to accommodate head movements – each viewing zone needs two sets of pixels – 8.3 x 8 x 2 = 128• Best pixel density at Consumer Electronics Show in 2011 was 8.3 million pixels/sq inch – If pixel density continues to increase four-times every three years, technical feasibility in 2017 – As for economic feasibility, this depends on incremental cost of the higher densities. If the incremental cost is small, they will probably become economically feasible before 2020.
  49. 49. Other Factors Driving Economic Feasibility: Standardization and Digitization of Video• Standardization and digitalization ease handling, storing and presentation of 3D videos• Standardization reduces complexity and cost of having to produce 3D contents for multiple competing formats• Digital 3D formats build from MPEG-4 video compression with Multiview Video Coding “Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture, transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural (MVC) encoding
  50. 50. Other Factors Driving Economic Feasibility: Better graphic processors Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables:  More MPEG4 video compression  Rendering of more realistic computer animation (more polygon count and motion control points)  Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D displays Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation good enough for cinema screens presentation, increasing contents in 3D http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html “NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf
  51. 51. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  52. 52. Another Option is an OLED• OLED: Organic Light Emitting Diode• Made of organic (Carbon based) materials that emit light when electricity runs through them• They can be roll printed onto a substrate, making them potentially cheaper than that of LCDs• Construction of OLED – Substrate – Anode – Conductive layer – Emissive layer – Cathode
  53. 53. OLEDs also have fewer Layers than LCDs and thus potentially less expensive LCD LED• Complex structure • Simple structure• Passes through light and thus • Source of light requires separate light source and color filters
  54. 54. Performance of LEDs and OLEDs Over Times
  55. 55. One Problem with OLEDs is their Lifespan• Average life span of about 30,000hours of viewing, half of LCD TVs60,000 hours.• The blue OLEDs degradessignificantly as compared to othercolors – bringing color balanceissues.• Thus OLED displays must be givena blue tint to offset the subsequentdegradation in blue color•Can these problems be solved?• Do OLEDs have a future in some Data on hoursapplications?
  56. 56. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  57. 57. Outline• Lighting – Incandescent and fluorescent – Light emitting diodes (LEDs) – “System” lighting issues• Displays – Cathode Ray Tube – Liquid Crystal Displays (LCDs) – Cost reductions from increases in scale of LCD substrates – 3D LCD displays – Organic light emitting diode (OLED) displays – Electronic Paper – Holographic displays
  58. 58. Holographic Systems• Present a real 3D image• LCD-based 3D systems present an “illusion” of three dimensions – Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses – Auto-Stereoscopic Displays• Holographic Systems present a real 3D image and thus one that is more aesthetically appealing
  59. 59. • When might such a system become technically and economically feasible for some application and some set of users?
  60. 60. Conclusions (1)• New types of lighting & displays continue to emerge – Lighting: LEDs, OLEDs – Displays: 3D LCDs, OLEDs, Holographic systems• These changes have and continue to create new opportunities in the new technologies and those that support them
  61. 61. Conclusions (2)• The rate of improvements in the performance and cost of these systems suggests that – LED-based lighting are just a few years away – OLED displays are also just a few years away – One type of 3D display (with glasses) is becoming economically feasible and a second one (without glasses) will probably become economically feasible in the next ten years – Holographic systems are probably at least 10 years away
  62. 62. Relevant Questions for Your Projects• To what extent will improvements in ICs, displays, and other component technologies continue to occur?• To what extent will these improvements enable new forms of lighting and displays?• To what extent will this create entrepreneurial opportunities and what kinds of opportunities?
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