Forecasting the Emergence of   Technological Discontinuities:The Case of Three Dimensional Liquid     Crystal Display Tele...
Conventional Wisdom∗ Advances in Science Lead to Emergence of Technological Discontinuities  ∗ Henderson and Clark, 1990; ...
2D Television to 3D Displays Milestones: • 1900s: Black & White CRT                                  Improvement of displa...
LCD replaces CRT∗ Improvement in liquid crystal enable its use in display panels∗ LCDs (liquid crystal displays) are now t...
Improvement of Displays∗ Increased Color Spectrum & Color graduation   ∗ An important aspect of display performance, trend...
Increased Frame-Rate                                                                        300                           ...
Increased Panel Pixel-Count and                density∗ Improved Panel Pixel count gives sharper  images and finer image d...
Standardization and Digitization          of Video Format∗ Standardization and digitalization ease  handling, storing and ...
Improved ease of producing                  contents in 3D∗ Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables:   ∗ Accelerat...
Larger Cheaper Digital Storage∗ Video streams, even after compression, takes  up significant storage space:   ∗ DVD Disc (...
Improved Distribution of 3D contentsDigital Broadcast∗ To support digital HD content, Digital broadcast replaces analogue ...
Impact of Improvements on       Displaying 3D ∗ Stereoscopic techniques:     1. Time-sequential 3D with active 3D glasses ...
Time-Sequential 3D                  with active 3D Glasses∗ Performance surplus of display frame-rate  enables time-sequen...
Time-sequential 3D with passive eyewear   ∗ Liquid crystal Electronic polarized filter added in front     of time-sequenti...
Auto-Stereoscopic Displays∗ Does not require special 3D glasses∗ Panel pixels are divides into two groups -- one for left-...
Improved 3D Displays∗ Improved display performance with increased 3D depth-perception makes better 3D displays  that provi...
Improved Availability of 3D Contents∗ Availability of 3D contents directly  affects value of 3D displays to  customers∗ Av...
Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D                      Displays   Television-Size displays:   ∗Inconvenience of 3D Glasses p...
Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D                      Displays   Pocket-Size displays:   ∗Improved pixel-density of portabl...
Conclusion∗ 3D improved visual immersion of content, makes content more realistic and enjoyable∗ Consumer 3D displays impr...
Thank you
Evolution of 3D Films and Technological Discontinuities                                                                   ...
Improved Depth-Perception∗ Principle of Depth-Perception (3D): Stereopsis –slightly different images is transmitted to  ea...
Required Pixel density of Auto-     stereoscopic panels
Auto-Stereoscopic 3D                   in Mobile Display∗ Auto-stereoscopy is more suitable for mobile display due to more...
Larger yet cheaper panelsNishimura’s Law:∗The size of substrate used grows by a factorof 1.8 every 3 years, Doubles every ...
Improved Digital Video Compression            Algorithm∗ Uncompressed video bitrate of 3D HD can be 25 times higher than S...
Improved Reality Threshold of    Computer-generated animationPolygon count growth, motion control point growth, and the Re...
Improved 3D Environmental            Modeling Technique∗   Computer games today often use GPU-assisted 3D environmental mo...
3D Games and Computer            Animation∗ Besides 3D recording of performing actors, computer animation is gaining  acce...
Ease of Producing 3D Contents∗ Convergence and standardization of 3D formats from competing proprietary systems∗ More sour...
Improved Distribution of 3D contentsIncreased popularity of Internet Video∗ Increasing popularity of video sharing website...
Increased market size for 3D Films∗ In 2009, active 3D shutter glasses was  introduced in cinema. This system is popular  ...
Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D            Display∗ Implementation of Time-sequential 3D system in LCD displays  enabling ...
Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D               Display∗ Auto-stereoscopy 3D displays do away with 3D glasses providing a mo...
Growth of 3D Display3D DisplaysDiffusion                                                       ∗ Wide-spread              ...
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3D Televisions: Forecasting their emergence

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My Master's students used ideas from my (Jeff Funk) forthcoming book (Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries) to analyze when 3D LCD TVs might emerge. See my other slides for details on concepts, methodology, and other new industries.

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3D Televisions: Forecasting their emergence

  1. 1. Forecasting the Emergence of Technological Discontinuities:The Case of Three Dimensional Liquid Crystal Display Televisions Ng Pei Sin G0903130@nus.edu.sg Supervisor: Dr Jeffrey Lee FUNK May 2011
  2. 2. Conventional Wisdom∗ Advances in Science Lead to Emergence of Technological Discontinuities ∗ Henderson and Clark, 1990; Anderson and Tushman, 1990; Tushman and Anderson, 1986∗ Alternative Explanation ∗ In addition to advances in science, complementary technologies are needed (Rosenberg, 1982; 1994) ∗ For example, improvements in magnetic recording density for audio and video recording systems (Funk, 2009) and ICs for computers (Funk, 2009) were neededWhat about three dimensional liquid crystal display (LCD) televisions? This presentation will show how improvements in LCDs have made the science of 3D television possible
  3. 3. 2D Television to 3D Displays Milestones: • 1900s: Black & White CRT Improvement of display • 1950s: Color Display • 2000s: Larger, slimmer High-definition Liquid ∗Increased Frame-Rate Crystal Displays (LCD) • 2010s: 3D HD LCD ∗Increased panel pixel count and density 3D HD per area High Definition, ∗Ease of application of optical filter on flat Larger Less space display panels Color motion images Ease of producing 3D Contents Motion Images ∗Standardization and Digitalization of 3D (Black & White) format ∗improved GPU performance and software algorithm ∗Larger cheaper digital storage Improved 3D Contents delivery ∗Digital Television Broadcast ∗Internet Broadband Bandwidth GrowthSource: “Future TVs Direction of Evolution”, Sue Chung,Displaybank, July 2009, http://www.displaybank.com ∗Increased popularity of Internet Video
  4. 4. LCD replaces CRT∗ Improvement in liquid crystal enable its use in display panels∗ LCDs (liquid crystal displays) are now the dominant form of televisionTotal display shipped by Display Area. Source: “Flat Panel Display Materials - Trends and Forecasts 2009”, Fuji Chimera Research Institute, InterLingua, 2008
  5. 5. Improvement of Displays∗ Increased Color Spectrum & Color graduation ∗ An important aspect of display performance, trend towards Natural color realism ∗ Implies that 3D implementation should be color neutral, and does not cause color distortion of images.∗ Increased Display Size and Flat Panel advantages ∗ Wider coverage of viewing area; better viewing immersion ∗ Adoption of 16:9 wide screen format used in cinema; simplification of display format ∗ Flat panel of LCD facilitate the use of high-precision optical filters∗ Larger yet Cheaper Displays ∗ Nishimura’s Law and Odawara’s Law indicates that increasing size of substrate used in panels results in reduction in cost of making each panel ∗ Indicates increasing returns to scale of LCD production, resulting in cheaper, larger panels. Reducing ASP$ of Flat Panel TV
  6. 6. Increased Frame-Rate 300 Display Frame-Rate 250 Frame per seconds (Hz) 200 120Hz - Minimum screen frame-rate CRT 150 for ‘flicker-free’ Time-sequential 3D LCD 100 OLED/Plasma 50 0 1970s 1995 2008 2010∗ Increased frame-rate of content approaches Critical Flicker Fusion point (where higher frame rate has no perceived effect) – 60Hz. ∗ Increase frame rate gives smoother, flicker-free motion, especially in high-action videos∗ Increased Frame-rate of Display ∗ Reaches 120Hz; surpasses critical flicker fusion point∗ Surplus enables implementation of Time-sequential 3D without compromising improved frame rate of content∗ Improved LCD frame-rate due to improvement in Liquid Crystal structure, reduced cell-gap, and improved methods to shorten liquid crystal response time
  7. 7. Increased Panel Pixel-Count and density∗ Improved Panel Pixel count gives sharper images and finer image details ∗ Standard-Definition (0.3 million pixel per frame), to ∗ High-Definition (2.1 million pixel per frame) ∗ emerging QFHD (Qual Full High Definition - 8.3 million pixel per frame) ∗ Pixel density in mobile display improved from 96 pixel-per-inch (ppi) in 2002 to 192 ppi in 2010∗Kitihara’s Law on development of flat panel displays, pixel count increase by four-timesevery 3 years∗Increased pixel count facilitates implementation of auto-stereoscopic displays Source: US Display Consortium (USDC), http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html
  8. 8. Standardization and Digitization of Video Format∗ Standardization and digitalization ease handling, storing and presentation of 3D films∗ Standardization of format reduces complexity and cost of having to produce 3D contents for multiple competing formats, improving economy of scale of producing 3D contents∗ Digital 3D format standardize on MPEG-4 video compression by extending MPEG-4 compression with Multiview Video Coding (MVC) encoding∗ Improvement in MPEG-4 video compression efficiency achieve only 50% increase in compressed bitrate for twice the amount of “Historical Progression of Media”, From: Three-Dimensional Television: Capture, uncompressed stereoscopic contents transmission, Display. By Haldun M. Ozaktas, Levent Onural
  9. 9. Improved ease of producing contents in 3D∗ Improved Graphics processing unit (GPU) enables: ∗ Acceleration of MPEG4 video compression (more computational demanding) ∗ Rendering of more realistic computer animation animated with 3D modeling technique (enables use of more polygon count and motion control points) ∗ Rendering of 3D models for stereoscopic video for 3D displays (stereoscopic output requires twice the computation)∗ Enable realistic stereoscopic computer animation good enough for cinema screens presentation, increasing contents in 3D∗ Improved algorithm enables rendering of existing 3D models for 3D displays with little or no modification, increasing pool of 3D contents and 3D video games∗ More sources of 3D content: 3D Films (live-action), 3D computer-animation, 3D Video Games∗ Improved software algorithm enables 2D contents to be converted to 3D, adding to the pool of 3D contents http://www.behardware.com/articles/659-1/nvidia-cuda-preview.html “NVIDIA® TESLA® GPU COMPUTING”, Nvidia, 2010, http://www.nvidia.com/docs/IO/43395/tesla-brochure-12-lr.pdf
  10. 10. Larger Cheaper Digital Storage∗ Video streams, even after compression, takes up significant storage space: ∗ DVD Disc (MPEG-2): ~2 hours (720i) at 4Gigabytes ∗ Blue-ray (MPEG-4): 9 hours of HD video on a 50GB disc∗ Cheaper, high-density digital storage brings down cost of recording and storage of video∗ Larger storage capacity permits higher video encoding bitrate, resulting in higher quality images∗ Improvement in video compression efficiency, faster video processor, and larger storage space facilitate handling and processing of high bitrate 3D HD content∗ Leverage on existing digital format used by High-Definition Video ease delivery of 3D contents Source: http://www.videophill.com
  11. 11. Improved Distribution of 3D contentsDigital Broadcast∗ To support digital HD content, Digital broadcast replaces analogue broadcast: ∗ DVB/T (Europe), ATSC (USA, Canada), ISDB-T (South America), DMB-T/H (China), etc ∗ digital bitrate from 4 to 32Mbps bitrate per TV channel with MPEG-4 video compression ∗ MPEG-4 are “3D ready”, able to carry MPEG-4 MVC 3D encoding∗ Digital broadcast support carrying of stereoscopic contentsGrowth of Internet Bandwidth∗Internet broadband Bandwidth growth to exceed DigitalBroadcasting∗According to Nielsen’s Law of Internet Bandwidth, high-end internet user’s connection speed grows by 50%annually, or double every 21 months∗High-quality 3D HD streams average about 40Mbps∗Internet bandwidth for high-end users should exceed40Mbps by 2011∗This enables high-quality 3D-HD streaming applicationover internet∗Increasing popularity of video sharing websites likeYouTube™ enables distribution of digital content via http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jakob_Nielsen_(usability_consultantInternet )#cite_note-1 , http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html
  12. 12. Impact of Improvements on Displaying 3D ∗ Stereoscopic techniques: 1. Time-sequential 3D with active 3D glasses 2. Time-sequential 3D with passive 3D glasses 3. Auto-stereoscopic 3D ∗ Fundamental Improvements: ∗ Increased frame-rate enables time-sequential 3D ∗ Increased pixel density enables auto-stereoscopic 3D
  13. 13. Time-Sequential 3D with active 3D Glasses∗ Performance surplus of display frame-rate enables time-sequential 3D∗ Improvement in Liquid Crystal response time enables: ∗ High frame-rate in LCD displays, ∗ High frame-rate active 3D glasses∗ Economical: Estimated cost of adding 3D to LCD display range from 10% to 30% the cost of panel.∗ Improved liquid crystal materials and reduced cell-gap shorten LC response-time enables higher shutter rate in active 3D glasses.∗ Use of low-voltage, thin-nematic LC structure enables application in battery-power shutter glasses.
  14. 14. Time-sequential 3D with passive eyewear ∗ Liquid crystal Electronic polarized filter added in front of time-sequential display to polarizes emitted images ∗ Polarized images is filtered by polarized eyewear to the respective eyes of viewer ∗ Cheaper glasses: Active shutter glasses retails at US$100 per pair, while “passive” polarize-filter glasses cost US$10 ∗ Cheaper “passive” eyewear as it does not use battery, or electronic circuitry – only polarized lens ∗ More comfortable as it is smaller and lighterSource: US patent 7477206, "Enhanced ZScreen modulator techniques", issued January 13, 2009, assigned to RealD
  15. 15. Auto-Stereoscopic Displays∗ Does not require special 3D glasses∗ Panel pixels are divides into two groups -- one for left-eye images, another for right-eye images∗ A filter element is used to focus each pixel into a viewing zone∗ Due to pixel division, increase pixel-density improves 3D image resolution∗ Flat Panel enable use of high-precision optical filters∗ Flat and thin LCD glass plate allow close placement of lenticular array minimizing optical distortion∗ Accurate placement of LCD pixels allow precise alignment of lenticular array, or parallax barrier∗ Uniform brightness of each pixel reduces angular variation in brightness∗ Further, auto-stereoscopy requires multiple pairs of viewing zones to allow some head movement, requires even more pixels count to maintain image resolution
  16. 16. Improved 3D Displays∗ Improved display performance with increased 3D depth-perception makes better 3D displays that provide superior content immersion and entertainment value.∗ Time-sequential 3D displays can be economically implemented by leveraging improved frame-rate of LCD panels∗ Further reduction in cost can be achieved with the use of electronic polarized filter and low- cost polarized 3D glasses∗ Improvement in pixel-density of pocket-size panels enabled implementation of auto- stereoscopic 3D displays with acceptable compromise in image resolution.∗ However, implementation of auto-stereoscopic 3D panels in television requires further improvement in pixel-density of TV-sized LCD panels.
  17. 17. Improved Availability of 3D Contents∗ Availability of 3D contents directly affects value of 3D displays to customers∗ Availability is improved with increased 3D contents and better content delivery∗ Increased 3D contents due to ease of producing contents in 3D, more sources of 3D contents (Digital 3D movies, 3D games)∗ Delivery of 3D contents is facilitated by leveraging off advancement made ∗ Increased in 3D movies with digital HD distribution ∗ In 2010, more than 500 3D PC games titles were listed on Nvidia’s 3D Vision website. http://www.nvidia.com/object/3d-vision-3d- games.html
  18. 18. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Displays Television-Size displays: ∗Inconvenience of 3D Glasses poses as near-term hindrance ∗3D benefits for content immersion varies with type of contents ∗Inconvenience of eyewear causes user to be more selective of 3D contents ∗Contents that benefits from 3D most like to offset cost of 3D production, causing certain types of content to be produced, thus limiting availability of 3D contents ∗Auto-stereoscopic 3D displays will broaden consumer preference for 3D contents ∗Further improvement of 3D displays is required to make 3D more convenient and comfortable to useReference: “Managing a Dispersed Product Development Process”, Ely Dahan and John R. Hauser, October 2000,
  19. 19. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Displays Pocket-Size displays: ∗Improved pixel-density of portable display enables auto-stereoscopy in mobile displays ∗Portable auto-stereoscopic displays is likely to be used in 3D handheld gaming consoles, while diffusion to other devices like mobile phones requires further cost reduction of 3D displays ∗This is because incremental cost of auto-stereoscopic displays is better justified in handheld gaming consoles by the benefits for content immersion. ∗In the event that incremental cost of 3D displays is significantly reduced, diffusion of mobile-sized 3D display is expected to exponentially increaseReference: “Managing a Dispersed Product Development Process”, Ely Dahan and John R. Hauser, October 2000,
  20. 20. Conclusion∗ 3D improved visual immersion of content, makes content more realistic and enjoyable∗ Consumer 3D displays improve accessibility to 3D contents (previously found only in 3D cinema)∗ Enable consumer to watch 3D movies beyond 3D cinema, and 3D games to be enjoyed∗ Development of 3D displays leverage off improvement in 2D displays and related improvements in content creation and delivery ∗ Advances in liquid crystal and increased pixel density of panel enables 3D displays ∗ Complementary technologies enable creation and distribution of 3D contents∗ However, the need for 3D glasses limits growth of 3D displays∗ Further improvement of 3D displays is required for 3D technology to diffuse significantly
  21. 21. Thank you
  22. 22. Evolution of 3D Films and Technological Discontinuities 3D HDCommercialContent HDFormat Grayscale Color SDSignal Digital EncodingEncoding Analog EncodingCommercial CRT Flat-panelsTelevision Mobile Data Digital BroadcastDistribution Digital Broadband Tape-based content & players Digital Disc & players CRT compatible Analog Broadcast Cinema Films Digital FormatsThreatre Proprietary Film-Projector Digital Projection SystemsPresentation systems Film format Standardized to 16,35,70m films Several dominant Projector systems 1895 1920 1950 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
  23. 23. Improved Depth-Perception∗ Principle of Depth-Perception (3D): Stereopsis –slightly different images is transmitted to each eye of an observer creating an illusion of increased depth.∗ 3 Primary methods of increasing depth-perception and state of development:∗ 1. Co-located Pixels: Anaglyph, Polarized (1950s) ∗ The pixel for left and right images overlay in space at the same time ∗ Realized with dual-color filtered projectors and color-filtered 3D glasses, or dual polarize-filtered projectors with metallic screen and polarized glasses ∗ Poor result due to color cross-talk between images∗ 2. Time-Sequential: Shutter, Polarized (2009) ∗ Image for left and right eyes are displayed one after another at high frame rate ∗ Realized with high frame rate shutters placed between screen and observer ∗ Lack of high-frequency shutter technology prior 2009∗ 3. Spatial Separation: Lenticular, Barrier-Grid (Emerging) ∗ Pixels for each eye is slightly separated in space ∗ Realized by with high resolution panel using high-precision optics to separate images for each eye ∗ Lack of high-resolution panels∗ Of the above methods, each consists of a display and some form of optical filter
  24. 24. Required Pixel density of Auto- stereoscopic panels
  25. 25. Auto-Stereoscopic 3D in Mobile Display∗ Auto-stereoscopy is more suitable for mobile display due to more predictable viewing distance than TV panels∗ Increased resolution facilitates implementation of auto-stereoscopic 3D display in mobile devices; Pixel-density of pocket-sized panels has doubled to 192dpi in 2010∗ In 2011, Nintendo launched the first handheld gaming console featuring an auto-stereoscopic 3D display for 3D gaming
  26. 26. Larger yet cheaper panelsNishimura’s Law:∗The size of substrate used grows by a factorof 1.8 every 3 years, Doubles every 3.6 years∗Less than half the time for IC wafers to double ASP$in size (7.5 years)∗Continued growth will drive furtherreductions in the cost of large displaysOdawara’s Law: Reducing ASP$ of Flat Panel TV∗Predicts increasing returns to scale ∗ Trend indicates that increasing size of∗Doubling in the cumulative area of flat panels substrate used in panels results inproduced results in a cost reduction of 22 to reducing cost of production, thus23% increasing returns to scale of FPD production.∗(Large panels are then cut into consumer ∗ Production cost reduces with increasedproduct size) cumulative area of flat panels resulting in cheaper, larger panels. Source: http://metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html, US Display Consortium (USDC)
  27. 27. Improved Digital Video Compression Algorithm∗ Uncompressed video bitrate of 3D HD can be 25 times higher than SD (TV) video∗ More efficient video compression algorithm, faster video processor, and larger storage space is required to support increased video bitrate of 3D HD content A given sample video∗ Latest MPEG4 AVC standard is estimated to be 7 times more efficient encoded at 30-35db than MPEG-2 for a 2D video PSNR:∗ MPEG 4 algorithm is more computational complex than earlier MPEG2 MPEG-2: 1600kbps compression algorithm; better computation speed is necessary for real- MPEG-4: 250kbps time implementation of MPEG4 compression than prior compression algorithm ∗ MPEG-4 Multiview Video Coding (MVC) was standardized in Higher Video 2009 for stereoscopic video. MVC extension encode Compression efficiency stereoscopic video (twice the uncompressed bitrate of 2D (MPEG4 MVC) video) into typically 50% more bitrate than compressed 2D video stream, effectively reducing uncompressed bitrate of Increased stereoscopic video computation ∗ however, this alone is insufficient to handle the 25 times complexity (need increase in uncompressed video bitrate; larger storage is faster processor) required Source: [1] “MPEG-4 AVC/H.264 Video Codecs Comparison”, Full version of report, Dmitriy Vatolin, CS MSU Graphics&Media Lab, May 2009 [2] “Beyond MPEG-4”, Ken McCann, CSI Magazone, Oct 2010, http://www.csimagazine.com/csi/Beyond-MPEG4.php# [3] “Blue-ray 3D Disc specification finalized”, Lucas Mearian, Computerworld, Dec 2009
  28. 28. Improved Reality Threshold of Computer-generated animationPolygon count growth, motion control point growth, and the RealityThreshold (Smith).Alvy Ray Smith of Microsoft/Pixar has estimated that the "realitythreshold" (simulations indistinguishable from ordinary human vision) is80 million polygons per frame, and on the order of a million motioncontrol points on the objects within our field of view.Polygon count generated by leading video game hardware doublesroughly every 2 years. If these trends continue, the reality threshold maybe achieved in 2014. From: metaverseroadmap.org/inputs.html. http://www.metaverseroadmap.org/resources.html
  29. 29. Improved 3D Environmental Modeling Technique∗ Computer games today often use GPU-assisted 3D environmental modeling techniques to achieve more realistic visual effects.∗ For example, in 3D light rendering technique (3D modeling) computer hardware helps to reproduce more realistic light reflection on complex texture like water, leaves, skin, or cloth.∗ These computer graphics may be modeled in 3D but had to be converted to 2D to fit most display panels.∗ Advancement in finalization phrase conversion enables 3D models to be converted for stereoscopic 3D displays∗ Existing 3D models used in video games can easily be converted for 3D 2D Display Finalization for 2D display -TV •One video stream is rendered -PC Monitors 3D animation techniques -Mobile phone •Light rendering3D Modelling, •Gravity simulation animation •Hair movement 3D Display •etc Finalization for 3D display -TV •Render for stereoscopic video -PC Monitors streams -Mobile -3D Glasses
  30. 30. 3D Games and Computer Animation∗ Besides 3D recording of performing actors, computer animation is gaining acceptance with audience∗ 3D modeling is commonly used in 3D games and computer animated films∗ Improved Reality Threshold of Computer-generated animation: ∗ Increased polygon count in 3D modeling and motion control points improves realism of computer animation (artificial simulation vs. live- action).∗ Mature 3D modeling techniques makes it easy to create 3D content for 3D displays∗ Existing 3D models can be easily rendered for 3D display
  31. 31. Ease of Producing 3D Contents∗ Convergence and standardization of 3D formats from competing proprietary systems∗ More sources of 3D content: 3D Films (live-action), 3D Video Games, 3D computer- animation ∗ Improved 3D hardware ∗ Improved realism of computer-generated animation with 3D modeling techniques∗ Ease of converting existing 2D contents into 3D
  32. 32. Improved Distribution of 3D contentsIncreased popularity of Internet Video∗ Increasing popularity of video sharing websites like YouTube™ enables distribution of digital content via Internet∗ Internet is increasingly available in multitude of battery powered mobile devices. Mobile broadband provide Internet connectivity to mobile users∗ Mobile devices with auto-stereoscopic 3D displays will be able to show 3D content from the Internet, increasing audience of 3D contents
  33. 33. Increased market size for 3D Films∗ In 2009, active 3D shutter glasses was introduced in cinema. This system is popular as 3D conversion cost of 2D cinema is relative low compared to prior proprietary systems.∗ 3D-capable cinema doubled between 2008 and 2009∗ Similar 3D shutter glasses system is adopted for LCD displays enabling 3D films to be Growth of 3D-capable cinema. Source “Cinema industry shown on home television, expanding moving to 3D. Sony corp. http://www.sony.net/united/3D/static/technology/digital_ci market of 3D films beyond the cinema nema/digital_cinema01.html screens∗ Growth of 3D cinema together with growth of 3D displays increases market size of 3D films, encourages more 3D film to be produced∗ Increases in 3D market size improves economy of scale of production of 3D films as films reaches a larger pool of viewers Growth of 3D Displays. Source: “DisplaySearch forecasts 38 percent CAGR for stereoscopic 3D display revenues”, EE Times, 1/5/2010, http://www.eetimes.com/electronics-news/4196659/DisplaySearch- forecasts-38-percent-CAGR-for-stereoscopic-3D-display-revenues
  34. 34. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Display∗ Implementation of Time-sequential 3D system in LCD displays enabling 3D films for cinema to be shown on home television∗ Expanding market of 3D films beyond the cinema screens improves economy of scale of production of 3D films, encourages more 3D films to be made∗ Increasing amount of 3D content encourage diffusion of 3D displays, which shares similar digital format used in 3D cinema∗ While 3D shutter glasses cost $100 each, emerging improvement is being developed for 3D display to use $10 polarized 3D glasses reducing the cost of 3D glasses required, lowering cost of 3D display∗ Yet, eyewear-based solution is a hindrance to widespread adoption of 3D displays
  35. 35. Likely Diffusion Scenario of 3D Display∗ Auto-stereoscopy 3D displays do away with 3D glasses providing a more comfortable and natural viewing experience∗ High pixel count of panels is required by Auto-stereoscopy to create 3D viewing area where viewers has to be positioned∗ However, pixel count of television-size panels has not reach the level necessary for auto- stereoscopy; Ultra-High resolution television-sized panels are expected to become available in 2016∗ In the mean time, pixel density of portable display has reach a level good enough for auto- stereoscopy 3D∗ Auto-stereoscopy is increasingly adopted in small, high pixel density screens, e.g. Nintendo 3DS∗ Diffusion of 3D displays is likely to occur concurrently first with two stereoscopic systems: 1. time-sequential 3D on television- size panels, 2. Auto-stereoscopic 3D on 3D mobile display∗ Eventually, 3D displays is likely to convergence towards auto- stereoscopic systems
  36. 36. Growth of 3D Display3D DisplaysDiffusion ∗ Wide-spread diffusion is expected with the convergence Auto-stereoscopic 3D towards Auto- display (no eyewear) stereoscopic 3D Time-sequential Polarized 3D displays Glasses for consumers Active Shutter 3D Glasses for consumers Auto-stereoscopic 3D display (no eyewear) 2010 2016 Time
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