These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how the economic feasibility of eye tracking technology is becoming better through improvements in infrared LEDs, micro-projectors, image sensors, and microprocessors. The capability to track an eye’s movement can help us better identify tired drivers and equipment operators, understand the eye movements of retail shoppers, and develop better human-computer interfaces. Tired drivers and machine operators lead to accidents and these accidents lead to loss of human life and equipment damage. Retailers would like to better understand the eye movements of their customers in order to better design retail stores. Eye trackers would enable one type of human-computer interface, Google Glasses, to understand the information that users are viewing and thus what they want to access Eye tracking is done with a combination of infrared LEDs, micro-projectors, image sensors, and microprocessors. All of these components are experiencing rapid improvements in cost and performance as feature sizes are made smaller and the number of transistors are increased. Improvements in image sensors have led to higher accuracy and precision where precision refers to consistency. Much of these improvements have come from higher pixel densities and sampling frequencies of the image sensors; the latter enables tracking even when there are head movements. These improvements have also led to lower costs and cost reductions continue to occur. The cost of high-end eye tracking systems have dropped from about 30,000 USD in 2000 to 18,000 in 2010 and 5,000 in 2013. Further reductions will occur as Moore’s Law continues and as higher volumes enable lower margins.

1. MT5009 – Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities
Opportunities in
Eye-Tracking
For information on other new technologies that are becoming economically feasible, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations

2. Group Introduction
• Adrianus Mradipta A0033067
• Desmond Wong A0082079
• Koh Kian Hong A0082082
• Ong Fu Lin A0098508
• Peh Tiong Seng A0098563

3. Before we begin…
Reebok Advertisement

4. Before we begin…
Note how men didn’t notice the shoes AT ALL!!

5. • Introduction
– Brief History
– Underlying Technology
• Technology Improvements
– What was holding the technology back?
– How has it improved?
– Will it improve further?
• Future Opportunities
Content

6. • What is eye tracking?
– Technique of measuring and monitoring the
point of gaze (where someone is looking)
• Identifies:
– first fixations
– fixation order
– gaze time
Introduction

7. Brief History
• 1870s - Scientific Study of Eye Movement Began
• 1900s - Photography Improvement
Non-Invasive Techniques
• 1940s - Head-Mounted Eye Trackers
First Developed
• 1970s - High Speed Data Processing & Cognitive Science
• 1980s - Human Computer Interface Developed
• 1990s - Commercial Applications Made Practical

8. Underlying Technology
• Current eye-tracking
technology uses: corneal
reflection technology
– Infrared diodes generate
reflection from the cornea
– Reflections are collected by
infrared image sensors
(cameras)
– Image analysis + mathematical
algorithms determine where
the user is looking

9. Underlying Technology
Current eye-tracking technology uses: corneal reflection technology

10. Underlying Technology
• Why infrared is used?
– To distinguish pupil shape from the iris.
– Pupils become clear in infrared vision
Normal Vision Infrared Vision
How corneal reflection determines
the line of sight

11. Infrared capable camera
Infrared LED Mechanical Housing
Computer
(processing power)
Components of the modern eye tracking system:
Underlying Technology

12. Labeled as “promising” for the past 50 years
• “For a long time now there has been a great need for a means of recording where
people are looking while they work at particular tasks. A whole series of unsolved
problems awaits such a technique” (Mackworth & Thomas, 1962, p.713).
• “...[T]he eyetracking system has a promising future in usability engineering” (Benel,
Ottens & Horst, 1991, p.465).
• “...[A]ggregating, analyzing, and visualizing eye tracking data in conjunction with
other interaction data holds considerable promise as a powerful tool for designers
and experimenters in evaluating interfaces” (Crowe & Narayanan, 2000, p.35).
• “Eye-movement analysis does appear to be a promising new tool for evaluating
visually administered questionnaires” (Redline & Lankford, 2001).
• “Another promising area is the use of eye-tracking techniques to support interface
and product design. Continual improvements in ... eye-tracking systems ... have
increased the usefulness of this technique for studying a variety of interface issues”
(Merwin, 2002, p.39).
Labeled as promising for 40 years
Good news or bad news?
Technology Improvement

13. • Both good news & bad news!
– Good news: it must be really promising, else it would
have been set aside
– Bad news: something is holding it back!
Technology Improvement
What had been holding the technology back?
How far has the technology gone?
Will technology improvements drive new
applications & opportunities?

14. • What was holding the technology back?
– Technical Difficulties
• Ease of use
• Tolerance to variations
• Constrained head movements
• Not portable
– Labor-Intensive Data Extraction
• Often requires labor-intensive frame-by-frame decoding of
videotape
– Difficulties in Data Interpretation
• Making sense out of the data
Technology Improvement

15. • Introduction
– Brief History
– Underlying Technology
• Technology Improvements
– What was holding the technology back?
– How has it improved?
– Will it improve further?
• Future Opportunities
Outline

16. • How has eye tracking improved?
Technology Improvement

17. • Accuracy & Precision
– The difference:
Technology Improvement

18. • Accuracy & Precision
– Improved over the years
Technology Improvement
Source: Tobii Accuracy and Precision Test Reports
One degree corresponds to half an inch (1.2 cm) on a
computer monitor viewed at a distance of 27 inches
(68.6 cm)

19. Note: Measurements were done at a 25 Degree Gaze Angle where one degree corresponds to half an
inch (1.2 cm) on a computer monitor viewed at a distance of 27 inches (68.6 cm)

20. • Accuracy & Precision
– How has it been improved?
• Increasing sampling rate
Modern eye trackers: 25-2000 Hz
http://www.healio.com/ophthalmology/journals/JRS/%7BB9C9AF4C-7BEC-47D2-9E2F-36D59FBD2447%7D/One-Kilohertz-Eye-Tracker-and-
Active-Intraoperative-Torsion-Detection-in-the-NIDEK-CXIII-and-Quest-Excimer-Lasers
http://www.journalofoptometry.org/en/analysis-of-the-effects-of/articulo/90102629/
Technology Improvement
Increasing sampling rate
reduces error

21. • Tolerance to head movement:
– Trade-off between precision/accuracy & tolerance
for head movement
– Head movement will shift distance to eye-tracker
from the optimal point
http://www.docstoc.com/docs/93864026/Specification-of-Gaze-Precision-and-Gaze-Accuracy
Technology Improvement
Optimum distance
Optimum distance
Optimum distanceAt 50 cm Optimum distanceAt 50 cm

22. • Tolerance to head movement:
– How this has been improved while
keeping accuracy/precision constant?
• Higher resolution cameras
– By increasing megapixels
• Use multiple cameras
Technology Improvement
T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010

23. 2013
$5,000
2000s
$30,000
2010
$18,000
http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21567195-
computer-interfaces-ability-determine-location-persons-gaze
Technology Improvement
• Cost
Reductions due to decrease in cost of
components, which will be discussed later

24. More Noise &
point-of-gaze does not move smoothly
Lower Cost System Medium Cost System High Cost System
Accuracy
Cost
Hundreds Thousands Tens of thousands
Technology Improvement
• Accuracy vs Cost

25. The image shows the left
(yellow) and right (green)
pupil diameter for all
systems.
Lower and Medium cost
system showing instability in
the tracking of the pupil.
Hundreds Thousands Tens of thousands
Performance
Cost
Technology Improvement
• Performance vs Cost
Noise

26. • Improvements in various aspects of the eye
tracker:
– Have allowed improvements in size &
intrusiveness
Raymond Dodge’s
Photochronograph
1950s
Today’s eye trackers
can be non-intrusive &
relatively small
Technology Improvement
21st Century1871 – 1942
WARNING!
AUDIENCE ATTENTIVENESS LOW

27. What do you see?

28. How many noticed the gorilla at the right hand side?
What do you see?

29. • Will Performance & Cost continue to
improve?
Technology Improvement

30. • Interest in the field:
– increase in the number of academic papers
related to the field
http://imotionsglobal.com/blog/exponential-growth-in-academic-eye-tracking-papers-over-the-last-40-years/
Technology Improvement

31. Technology Improvement
Increasing number of Eye Tracking Products

32. Technology Improvement
Infrared capable camera
Infrared LED Mechanical Housing
Computer
(processing power)
• Improvement in Components
Improvement trends in components in the field gives us
confidence that this technology will continue to improve

33. Technology Improvement
• Improvement in Cameras
Reducing pixel-size (green square) miniaturized cameras without reducing quality
T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010

34. Technology Improvement
• Improvement in Cameras
T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010
Resolution increases, the
price of a corresponding
camera comes down more
and more quickly over time

35. Technology Improvement
• Improvement in Computers
(Processing Power)
http://homepages.cwi.nl/~steven/vandf/2012-11-teneuro.html
Improvement in integrated circuits (Moore’s Law) enhances processing power to
decode the raw data obtained from eye tracking. Potential improvement gives
confidence that eye-tracking will continue to improve

36. Technology Improvement
• Improvement in Computers
(Processing Power)
Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong.
Implications of Historical Trends in The Electrical Efficiency of Computing. [Online]
Available from: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28
As devices shrink in size, energy
consumption can be made more
efficient. Allow miniaturization of eye
tracking and computing devices to
support it

37. Technology Improvement
$1000
$4000
Business Cost
+ R&D Cost
Hardware
Cost
Kumar, M. Reducing the Cost of Eye Tracking Systems, Stanford
Tech Report CSTR 2006-08, April 2006
Typical eye-tracker cost: $5000
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
10, 000s Units 100, 000s Units
Total Cost
USD$
Hardware Cost
Business Cost
+ R&D Cost

38. Technology Improvement
Confidence that eye-tracking system will improve
A killer application is required to propel this technology!

39. Future Applications

40. Future in Retail

41. Future in Retail

42. Future in Retail
Eye Tracking Technology
 Tracks customer interest
through the eyes
 Interactive displays that
projects visual
information through
Augmented Reality

43. Opportunities
• Retail Shops
– Better customer experience leads to
better sales
• Marketing Consultancy Companies
– Provides solution for retailers to connect
with shoppers
– Eye Tracking collects unique information
of shoppers
• Point of display heat maps
• Items of interest to shoppers
Future in Retail

44. Opportunities
• Software
– Provides customization service for retail business
– Offers processing software to analyze collected data
Future in Retail

45. ΩΩFuture in Machines
Danger of Drivers/ Machine Operators
• Fatigue
• Drowsiness
• Inattentive

46. Severe consequence from accidents
• Health, Safety and Environment
• Insurance Costs
• Operation downtime
Future in Machines
Offshore Drilling
Mining Machines
Monitor Fatigue and Attention Level

47. Future in Machines
Training Centers
• Eye Tracking to monitor and correct
 Line of sight
 Visual angle

48. Opportunities
Mining and Drilling Companies
• Safer work environment
• Lead to less operation downtime
Training Centers
• Measurement of competency
• Training programs for effective learning
Machineries/Automobile Manufacturers
• Provide customized eye trackers for new
machineries or vehicles
ΩΩFuture in Machines

49. ΩΩFuture in the Military
The traditional way we aim weapons has always been about
Manually adjusting the weapons to our eyes
Applications:

50. ΩΩFuture in the Military
Applications:
Soldier of the future is about
automatically adjusting the weapons to the line of sight

51. ΩΩFuture in the Military
Opportunities:
Weapon Manufacturers
• New weapon with automatic aiming can be developed
• Maintenance Services
Eye Trackers Manufacturers
• High specification eye tracker for military use
– Accurate and precise aim
– Suitable for rugged condition
Software and System Providers
• Connect eye tracker to weapons
• Seamless connection between eye tracker and weapons

52. ΩΩFuture in HCI
Simple interaction with Google
Glass through VOICE

53. In the future, users will be able to retrieve information from the Glasses.
If life is simple, that’s Great.
Future in HCI

54. But often, Life is a little more complicated.
There will be an Information Overload.
How do we filter the Information that are meaningful to us?
Future in HCI

55. ΩΩFuture in HCI
Eye Tracking Technology
 Identifies objects of interest by
tracking the eyes

56. ΩΩ
Eye Tracking Technology
 Identifies objects of interest by
tracking the eyes
 Information will be presented to
the user triggered by eye gaze
Future in HCI

57. ΩΩ
Eye Tracking Technology
 Combination with other
Interaction interfaces is possible
Voice Interaction
Sixth Sense
Future in HCI

58. ΩΩFuture in HCI
Opportunities:
Components Manufacturers
• Light and wearable
• Miniaturization of Eye Tracker
Augmented Reality Providers
• Opportunity for user interaction with Augmented Reality
• Eg. Google Glass
HCI Providers
• More holistic interaction interface
• Eg. Integration with Microsoft Kinect and Leap motion control

59. ΩΩConclusions
• Technology improvement across components
• Reduction in Cost through Increasing technological efficiencies &
Greater adoption
New Applications
Retail Machines Military HCI
Opportunities
Component Manufacturers Augmented Reality Providers
HCI Providers
Weapon ManufacturersEye Tracker Manufacturers
Software Providers
Hardware Integrators
Consultancy Training Centers
Inspection and Maintenance
Retailers

60. Thank you!