María Mendiluce - La transición energética en Europa y el cambio climático


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María Mendiluce - La transición energética en Europa y el cambio climático

  1. 1. LA TRANSICIÓN ENERGÉTICA EN EUROPA Y EL CAMBIO CLIMÁTICO Acción 2020: una respuesta empresarial a la transición energética María Mendiluce Madrid, 30 Jun2 2014
  2. 2. Index • WBCSD • Vision 2050 • Energy transitions • Action2020 • Concluding remarks
  3. 3. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development
  4. 4. The World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) is a CEO-led organization of forward-thinking companies that galvanizes the global business community to create a sustainable future for business, society and the environment. Through its members, the Council applies its respected thought leadership and effective advocacy to generate constructive solutions and take shared action.
  5. 5. Key facts about the WBCSD • Nearly 200 global member companies • $7tn: aggregate capitalisation of members • 15m employees in WBCSD member companies • Regional partners in 67 countries with thousands of companies
  6. 6. Vision 2050
  7. 7. Vision 2050 9 billion people, living well, within the limits of the planet • Business vision of a world well on the way to sustainability by 2050 • Recognition of the need for radical change to make this a reality • Significant business opportunities identified Vision 2050 online
  8. 8. Growth and degradation 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Populationinmillions Urban - Less developed Rural - Less developed Urban - More developed Rural - More developed 0 C hina U nited States India Brazil M exico R ussia Indonesia Japan U nited Kingdom G erm any 10,000 20,000 30,000 GDP2006US$bn 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 0 2005 2030 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 400 million 1.2 billion Percentofglobalpopulation Sub-SaharanAfrica SouthAsia Middle Eastand North Africa Latin Americaand the Caribbean Europeand Central Asia EastAsiaand the Global economic power is shifting Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050 The world population is increasingly urban Global population by t ype of area and by region – 1950-2050 The global middle class is rapidly expanding Population in low- and middle-income countries earning US$ 4,000-17,000 per capita (purchasing power parit y) 1970 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 eq Restof the world BRIC(Brazil, Russia,India, China) OECD 0 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 Millions of people 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Severe Medium Low No 0% 2000 Forecastpost-peakdeclinerate 2005 C a mp be ll L BST Pea kOil C on s ulting U p ps a la To ta l BGR She ll Miller Me lin g OPEC IEA U SEIA 2010 2015 2020 2025 Forecastdate of peak 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising GHG emissions by regions Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life People living in areas of water stress by level of stress The world could be running out of some resources Global supply forecast s according to the im plied ultimate recoverable resources of convent ional oil, date of peak produ ction and the post-peak aggregate decline rate Urbanization Shifting power Wealth GHG rise Worse Q life Resource less
  9. 9. Meeting human demands within the ecological limits of the planet 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 World averagebiocapacity per personin 2006 World averagebiocapacity per personin 1961 UNDPthresholdforhighhumandevelopment High human development w ithin the Earth’s limits 2 4 6 8 10 12 EcologicalFootprint(globalhectaresperperson) United Nations Human Development Index Asiancountries Europeancountries Latin Americanand Caribbean countries North Americancountries OceaniancountriesMeeting the dual goals of sustainability High human development and low ecological impact Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009). Data from Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009 06 61 UNDPthresholdforhighhumandevelopment 2 4 6 8 10 12 EcologicalFootprint(globalhectaresperperson) African countries Asiancountries Europeancountries Latin Americanand Caribbean countries North Americancountries Oceaniancountries
  10. 10. The Perfect storm: Water, Energy and Food Nexus Source: Hoff, H, 2011
  11. 11. TODAY The pathway to Vision 2050 To a sustainable world in 2050 From business-as-usual
  12. 12. Energy transitions
  13. 13. 147/8/2014 The global energy system today Global energy flows in 2011 Source: IEA
  14. 14. Potential exponential energy demand growth…  1.2 Bn people without access to electricity  1.1 Bn people without access to water  Around 1 Bn people undernourished  1 Bn Slum dwellers 2010 Population Energy pc Poorest (GDP<2000$) 645 Mn 514 koe Developing (GDP<6500$) 2775 Mn 534 koe Emerging (GDP<12000$) 2335 Mn 1829 koe Developed (GDP<12000$) 1145 Mn 4718 koe Total 6900 Mn 1664 koe …. and associated water requirements 12.5 16 23 2010 2050 (IEA) 2050 (Wealthy)* + => …. affluent middle class is expanding Filling development gaps… …. demand could double in the next 40 years
  15. 15. 167/8/2014 To achieve the 2DS, energy-related CO2 emissions must be halved until 2050. A choice of 3 Futures 6DS/Current Policies where the world is heading under current policy with potentially devastating results The 6°C Scenario 4DS/New Policies reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency The 4°C Scenario 2DS/450 a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO2 emissions The 2°C Scenario Source: IEA
  16. 16. 177/8/2014 Carbon Stranded Assets ? 1000 2860 760 1500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 Carbon Budget According to IPCC < 2⁰C Existing Reserves of Fossil Fuels if Burnt Fossil Fuel Reserves of Listed Companies Listed Reserves + Potential Additional Reserves Carbon
  17. 17. 187/8/2014 BP Energy Outlook 2035…BAU
  18. 18. 197/8/2014 Slow energy transition 1.E+03 1.E+04 1.E+05 1.E+06 1.E+07 1.E+08 1.E+09 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Terrajoulesperannum Total Oil Nuclear Biofuels - 1st Gen Solar Photovoltaic Wind LNG "Laws" Materiality 30 years to influence the energy mix Source: Nature
  19. 19. 207/8/2014 100% renewables is it possible?
  20. 20. Energy efficiency & renewables
  21. 21. © OECD/IEA 2014 Technology portfolio to reach the 2DS 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 GtCO2 Sectors Power generation 41% Industry 19% Transport 19% Buildings 13% Other transformation 8% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2011 2020 2030 2040 2050 Technologies End-use fuel and electricity efficiency 38% CCS 14% End-use fuel switching 9% Renewables30% Power generation efficiency and fuel switching 2% Nuclear 7% Decarbonising power is a pre-condition – key role for renewables
  22. 22. 1. A sustainable energy future is still feasible and technologies exist to take us there 2. Despite potential of technologies, progress is too slow at the moment 3. A clean energy future requires systemic thinking and deployment of a variety of technologies 4. It even makes financial sense to do it. 5. Government policy is decisive in unlocking the potential Source: IEA WEO, ETP Intergubernamental perspective
  23. 23. 1. There is a significant risk of lock-in of the GHG emissions trajectory 2. An energy policy framework is required to secure a pathway to vision 2050 outcome:  transition period aligned with the long-term framework  financial incentives and regulatory support  Early goal of commercial-scale demonstration  Allow all technology options  Balance supply security, affordability and environmental protection;  Build public support for new energy infrastructure 3. Carbon pricing has a critical role to play Business perspective Clear, unambiguous & well structured energy policy framework
  24. 24. Action2020
  25. 25. 277/8/2014 Action 2020 Process
  26. 26. 287/8/2014 Climate Change Societal Must Have With the goal of limiting global temperature rise to 2°C above pre-industrial levels, the world must, by 2020, have energy, industry, agriculture and forestry systems that, simultaneously: • Meet societal development needs • Are undergoing the necessary structural transformation to ensure that cumulative net emissions* do not exceed one trillion tonnes of carbon. Peaking global emissions by 2020 keeps this goal in a feasible range • Are becoming resilient to expected changes in climate. * Anthropogenic CO2 emissions from preindustrial levels as outlined in the IPCC Working Group Fifth Assessment Report. One trillion tonnes carbon = 3.67 trillion tonnes CO2
  27. 27. 297/8/2014 ˂2oC Stay below trillion tonnes carbon and meet develpment needs Avoid GHG emissions Sequester GHG emissions Biosequestration Geological sequestration Replace fossil fuels Improve efficiency Energy Efficiency in Buildings (EEB) Forests and forest products as carbon Sinks Carbon Capture and Sequestration Carbon Capture and Utilisation (incl. EOR) Increase share of renewables on grid Sustainable Mobility 2.0 Biofuels Solar, Wind, Hydro Natural Gas & H2 Low-carbon electrification of remote areas Electrifying Cities towards Zero Emissions Resilience of global supply chains Resilience in the Power Sector *Reduce deforestation Resilience Managed by C&E Climate Change Must- Have Business Solutions Resilience in the Cement Sector Policy Focus *Sustainable forest management *Increase forest product use/value Energy Efficiency in Industrial Processes (CSI)x Insulation Engine efficiency Urban planning Examplesof individual technologies Pre/Post- combustion and Oxyfiring CO2 capture Saline aquifer and depleted oil/gas field storage Policy Principles for multilateral agreements on climate Change Policy Requirements Individual technologies as part of biz solutions National Policy recommendations Sectoral Policy recommendations Proactive adaptation Solution spaces X Not yet a business solution, in progress WBCSD Climate Change solutions Utility of the Future Biomass
  28. 28. 307/8/2014 Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) • By 2020 deliver improved understanding of the role of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS); • Real change in the recognition of CCS in national and international policy; and • Ideally, a Final Investment Decision (FID) on at least one major for profit project in a carbon intense (emerging) economy. Core Group
  29. 29. 31 Emissions vs. Storage measured in GtCO2 Trillion tonnes of Carbon Fossil Fuel Reserves Technical Storage Capacity Already Emitted Commercial CO2 market 3670 2863 20001890 0.12 Sources: IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers, Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (2013) IEA, World Energy Outlook (2012) IPCC, Special Report on Carbon Dioxide Capture and Storage (2005) Theoretically there is significant storage potential (relative to potential emissions from fossil fuels) but at the moment in practical terms–it is scarce. There remains significant geological work to fully appraise storage sites (identify, characterise, model and potentially test injection). Storage capacity uncertainty UK example: In oil and gas fields: 7.4 - 9.9 Saline aquifers: 6.3 - 62.7 billion tonnes of CO2
  30. 30. 327/8/2014 Scaling up renewables in the electricity mix • By 2020 this business solution will demonstrate that the electricity grid can integrate more than 20% of renewable energy and by 2030 renewables can reach 30% of the electricity mix. By looking at: • The essential driver for scale • Company on site and off site integration of renewables Co-leads
  31. 31. 337/8/2014 Three pillars of system transformation at high variable renewable energy shares 2. Make better use of what you have Operations 1. Let wind and solar play their part 3. Take a system wide- strategic approach to investments! System friendly VRE Technology spread Geographic spread Design of power plants Investments Grid infrastructure Flexible generation Storage Demand side integration
  32. 32. 347/8/2014 Electrifying Cities towards Zero Emissions • Fully electrify the consuming sectors in the city and implement high efficiency measures for mobility, buildings and industries; • Optimize and harmonize energy supply and demand through ICT solutions; • Transform the supply of electricity to zero- carbon and optimize efficiency for energy transmission and distribution. Co-leads
  33. 33. 357/8/2014 Low Carbon Electrification of Remote Locations • Accelerate remote electrification through the formulation of ‘solution packages’ to meet needs ranging from providing light or charging electronic devices in single households (kW) to grid-equivalent electricity supply for sizable communities or production locations (MW); • Provide recommendations on the policy and financing environment; • New business models and investment making decision processes, to enable access to modern services and make a significant contribution to the goal of universal access to all. Co-leads
  34. 34. 367/8/2014 Resilience to Climate Change in Globally Interdependent Business • Help companies understand climate risk and build resilience • Consider linkages and inter-dependencies between companies, sectors and countries, by focusing on illustrative supply chains: • Corn • Battery assembly • Build foundation for a holistic and cross- sectoral approach to building resilience in the global business community. Co-leads
  35. 35. 37 Business is building resilience to climate change… • Droughts & Floods • Storm surges • Heat waves • High winds • Gradual changes in climate – Raising sea levels – Increasing average temperatures – Changing precipitation Long-term impacts Extreme events … managing existing risks & preventing accumulation of new risks Improve response to extreme events Understand where are the hotspots for l/t planning RAISING INCERTITUDES
  36. 36. 38 Conclusions
  37. 37. What business needs to invest in the energy transition? • Long term signals and shorter term milestones subject to periodic review with common MRV framework • National policies & measures (incl. carbon pricing) • International efforts & increasing cooperation around innovation and RDD • International cooperation on resilience
  38. 38. Scale of solutions is changing… rooftopPV onshorewind Desertec “nano” “micro” “macro” PVplants geothermal K$ M$ G$ LH2 shipping LNG GtL refining shalegas retail Clean Fossil oil sands Green THEACTION smart systems H2Mobilty typicalprojectscale offshorewind CCSdemos  Individual consumers  Communities  Small companies  Non-energy companies  Cities  Specialized energy companies Investment decision makers …regulatory frameworks will need to adapt
  39. 39. Global Megatrends • The great leveller? • Double-edged sword • • Ageing nations • • Lifestyle choices, lifestyle diseases • Interconnected and infectious • New world order • The global marketplace • Rise of the middle class • Empowerment through education • More seats at the table • The “perfect storm” • It’s the green economy Source: The Report of the Oxford Martin Commission for Future Generations • Uneven and unequal • Generational and gender divides
  40. 40. Environmental Policies 44 Public policies should focus in reducing or managing existing risks that discourage private investment Main risks and policy solutions for low-carbon RD&D investments:  Commercial risks: ownership of assets and liabilities; risks and revenue sharing; contractual and operational responsibilities; IPR  Regulatory risks: legal framework for emissions control and for access to infrastructure  Political risks: political stability and permanence of government commitments  Absence of general infrastructure: Government assurance of investments in infrastructure where it is lacking  Absence of RD&D infrastructure: human capital, universities, national labs, regional partners
  41. 41. Environmental Policies 45 A combination of technology push and market pull policies can address barriers to low carbon innovation Policies to increase the supply of new knowledge: “TECHNOLOGY PUSH” Policies to increase the demand of innovation: “MARKET PULL” Capacity building Infrastructure development Gov’t funding demonstration projects Public-private partnerships to share R&D risk Gov’t sponsored R&D Tax credits to invest in R&D Targets and product standards Cap and trade Regulations requiring use of BAT Feed-in tariffs Portfolio standards Public procurement IPRS protection