Centro del Sector FinancieroThe Sovereign Debt Crisis of the EZ              and the Outlook of the Spanish Economy       ...
World Economy           Manufacturing Index PMI                                World                                German...
World Economy  Volume of exports momentum  Quarterly change in 3-month average (%)  World and aggregatesSource: BBVA Resea...
EZ Debt Crisis – External imbalances in the Euro Area – large and persistentSource: OECD                             4
EZ Debt Crisis – Diverging real interest rates –destabilising, sparking credit cyclesSource: OECD                         ...
EZ Debt Crisis - Indebtedness and leverage in selected     advanced Economies1Cellsshaded in red indicate a value in the t...
EZ Debt Crisis - International investment position of some member countriesSource: IFS                              7
EZ Debt Crisis - Comparative indicators of some member countriesSource: WEO, OECD. Bloomberg, Bank of Spain, ECB, IMF Staf...
EZ Debt Crisis – Private sector debt and Property BubblesSource: OECD                              9
EZ Debt Crisis – Competitiveness of member countriesSource: Direction of Trade, Eurostat, WEO                             ...
EZ Debt Crisis - Cumulative spillovers from high-spread Euro Area sovereigns to the European Union banking systemSource: I...
Spanish Economy - High levels of unemploymentSource: Ministry of Labor and Immigration; Eurostat; and INE                 ...
Spanish EconomySource: Bloomberg and IMF Staff Estimates                                            13
Spanish Economy - Size of potential negative spillovers from SpainSource: IMF Research                             14
Spanish Economy - Funding and liquidity pressure to remain elevatedSource: Bank of Spain, Asociación Española de Banca, Co...
Spanish Economy – Net borrowing / lending of the Spanish  general government                                              ...
Spanish Economy - Funding and liquidity pressure to remain elevatedSource: Bank of Spain, Asociación Española de Banca, Co...
Spanish Economy - Financial sector indicators    Credit to the private sector plungedSource: Bank of Spain, ECB           ...
Centro del Sector Financiero
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La crisis de la deuda soberana en la Euro Zona y las perspectivas de la economía española

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La crisis de la deuda soberana en la Euro Zona y las perspectivas de la economía española

  1. 1. Centro del Sector FinancieroThe Sovereign Debt Crisis of the EZ and the Outlook of the Spanish Economy 28th November 2011
  2. 2. World Economy Manufacturing Index PMI World Germany EE.UU. 2
  3. 3. World Economy Volume of exports momentum Quarterly change in 3-month average (%) World and aggregatesSource: BBVA Research and World Trade Monitor 3
  4. 4. EZ Debt Crisis – External imbalances in the Euro Area – large and persistentSource: OECD 4
  5. 5. EZ Debt Crisis – Diverging real interest rates –destabilising, sparking credit cyclesSource: OECD 5
  6. 6. EZ Debt Crisis - Indebtedness and leverage in selected advanced Economies1Cellsshaded in red indicate a value in the top 25 percent of a poled sample of all countries shown in the table from 1990 through 2009 (no longest sample available). Greenshading indicates values in the bottom 50 percent, and yellow in the 50 th to 75th percentile. The sample for bank leverage data starts in 2008 only.2 World Economic Outlook projections for 2011.3 Net general government debt is calculated as gross debt minus financial assets corresponding to debt instruments.4 Most recent data divided by annual GDP (projected for 2011). Nonfinancial corporate ’ gross debt includes intercompany loans and trade credit, and these can differsignificantly across countries.5 Household net debt is calculated using financial assets and liabilities from a country’ s flow of funds data.6 Leverage is defined as the ratio of tangible assets to tangible common equity for domestic banks.7 Calculated from assets and liabilities reported in a country’s international investment position.8Most recent data for externally held general government debt (from JEDH) divided by 2011 GDP from WEO. Not that debt data from the JEDH are not comparable to WEOdebt data when they are at market value.Source: Bank for International Settlements, Bloomberg, IMF staff estimates 6
  7. 7. EZ Debt Crisis - International investment position of some member countriesSource: IFS 7
  8. 8. EZ Debt Crisis - Comparative indicators of some member countriesSource: WEO, OECD. Bloomberg, Bank of Spain, ECB, IMF Staffs estimates 8
  9. 9. EZ Debt Crisis – Private sector debt and Property BubblesSource: OECD 9
  10. 10. EZ Debt Crisis – Competitiveness of member countriesSource: Direction of Trade, Eurostat, WEO 10
  11. 11. EZ Debt Crisis - Cumulative spillovers from high-spread Euro Area sovereigns to the European Union banking systemSource: IMF staff estimates 11
  12. 12. Spanish Economy - High levels of unemploymentSource: Ministry of Labor and Immigration; Eurostat; and INE 12
  13. 13. Spanish EconomySource: Bloomberg and IMF Staff Estimates 13
  14. 14. Spanish Economy - Size of potential negative spillovers from SpainSource: IMF Research 14
  15. 15. Spanish Economy - Funding and liquidity pressure to remain elevatedSource: Bank of Spain, Asociación Española de Banca, Confederación Española de Cajas de Ahorros, Bloomberg, IMF Staffs estimates 15
  16. 16. Spanish Economy – Net borrowing / lending of the Spanish general government Net lending (+) / Net borrow ing (-) General Governm ent 20,000 10,000 0 Million euros -10,000 -20,000 -30,000 -27,396 -40,000 -50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Accumulating the results for the first two quarters, Public Administrations had net borrowing of 41,348 million, 7.7% of GDPSource: Instituto Nacional de Estadística 16
  17. 17. Spanish Economy - Funding and liquidity pressure to remain elevatedSource: Bank of Spain, Asociación Española de Banca, Confederación Española de Cajas de Ahorros, Bloomberg, IMF Staffs estimates 17
  18. 18. Spanish Economy - Financial sector indicators Credit to the private sector plungedSource: Bank of Spain, ECB 18
  19. 19. Centro del Sector Financiero

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