Healthy life as opposed to dependent life: challenges and realities
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Ciclo: "Envejecimiento y bienestar”. En colaboración con el Grupo de Estudios Población y Sociedad (GEPS). James Vaupel Profesor de Demografía. Director del Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Madrid, 28 de abril de 2011
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Healthy life as opposed to dependent life: challenges and realities
- 1. The Remarkable Increase in the Healthy Span of Life James W. Vaupel Ramon Areces Foundation 28 April 2011, Madrid
- 2. Oeppen & Vaupel, Science 2002 3 0 4 0 5 0 6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 5 5 0 1 6 0 0 1 6 5 0 1 7 0 0 1 7 5 0 1 8 0 0 1 8 5 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0 England Norway New Zealand Iceland Netherlands Sweden Japan Life expectancy in years
- 3. 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 L i f e e x p e c t a n c y i n y e a r s Year Sweden Norway New Zealand Island The Netherlands Switzerland Australia Japan Germany The Netherlands
- 4. Divergent Mortality Trends United States Denmark The Netherlands Cigarette Smoking
- 5. Age-Specific Contributions to the Increase of Life Expectancy among Women 1850 to 2007 42 18 8 0 0 0 80+ 100% 3 5 29 62 1850-1900 100% 4 9 32 55 1900-1925 100% 13 19 38 31 1925-1950 100% 28 16 18 30 1950-1975 100% 100% Total 37 41 65-79 11 24 50-64 5 6 15-49 6 11 0-14 1990-2007 1975-1990 Age group
- 6. Remaining Life Expectancy at Age 65 Year R e m a i n i n g l i f e e x p e c t a n c y a t a g e 6 5 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 1 0 1 2 1 4 1 6 1 8 2 0 2 2 Sweden Denmark Norway Switzerland New Zealand Netherlands Japan Germany
- 7. q(x), Japan, Women q(x), Japan, Men
- 8. Projections and Forecasting Forecasting female record life expectancy (up to 2100) using a random walk with drift 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40
- 9. Data are ages in years. Baseline data were obtained from the Human Mortality Database and refer to the total population of the respective countries. Oldest age at which at least 50% of a birth cohort is still alive in eight countries 104 104 103 103 103 102 102 101 USA 103 103 102 102 101 101 101 100 UK 107 106 106 106 105 105 105 104 Japan 104 104 103 103 103 102 102 102 Italy 102 101 101 101 100 100 100 99 Germany 104 104 104 103 103 103 102 102 France 101 101 101 101 100 100 99 99 Denmark 104 104 104 103 103 103 102 102 Canada 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000
- 11. 1861 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0 1 8 0 0 Number of females aged 100+ or 105+ Year Swedes 100+ Japanese 105+
- 12. Trends in: Diseases and conditions Functional limitations Disability Health expectancies Gender differences
- 13. Y ear X 5 o r X 1 0 1861 1900 1950 2000 6 5 7 0 7 5 8 0 8 5 9 0 9 5 X 5 X 10 Sweden USA Japan
- 14. 40 50 60 70 80 90 Age Probability of death (%) 0.2 2 20 Today 50 years ago
- 17. Healthy Unhealthy Dead Healthy Unhealthy Dead
- 20. Germany 1910 Age Male Female Population ( in 1,000) Germany 2005 Age Male Female Population ( in 1,000) Germany 2025 Age Male Female Population ( in 1,000)
- 21. 2005
- 22. 2025
- 24. -11% 11.16 12.55 30% 1.47 1.13 Germany Change 2025 2009 Change 2025 2009 Country H, hours worked per week per capita R, nonworkers per worker Vaupel & Loichinger, Science 2006 5% 16.36 15.64 -15% 0.99 1.17 USA -2% 14.67 14.97 7% 1.19 1.11 UK -14% 11.97 13.84 32% 1.20 0.91 Netherlands -8% 12.05 13.14 16% 1.86 1.60 Italy -9% 11.35 12.45 21% 1.69 1.40 France -6% 14.13 14.96 11% 1.12 1.01 Denmark
- 30. Summary: Prospects for the 21 st Century Live longer and longer Live healthier at any specific age Postpone disability to later ages Healthy ageing incl. geriatic medicine Work more years but fewer hours per year