Urban Mobility Frost and Sullivan

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Frost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation Group continually researches the Mega Trends that are impacting our future lives and business activities. Continued global urbanisation provides the required population density for new mobility solutions to be provided and viable, as well as increased economic power in these areas; London accounts for more than 20 per cent of the UK’s GDP despite housing only 12 per
cent of the population, for example. This has influenced the increased use of public transport, now accounting for more than 43 per cent of trips in London compared to 34 per cent by private transport, but also new business models like car sharing, which complement the existing infrastructure and are playing a role in reducing the number of cars in cities.

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Urban Mobility Frost and Sullivan

  1. 1. May 2013Martyn Briggs, Programme Manager - Mobility“50 Years of Growth, Innovation & Leadership”New Urban Mobility Business Models
  2. 2. New Urban Mobility Business ModelsMarket Insight© 2013 Frost & Sullivan Page 2IntroductionThese are interesting times to be researching the future of mobility, as we witness acombination of Mega Trends, infrastructure provision, and public policy impacting the way inwhich we move people and goods across the globe. As can be seen in Figure 1, these forcesare leading to a number of examples of industry convergence, with transport operators, carcompanies, fleet/leasing companies and technology providers increasingly collaborating tooffer seamless integrated travel solutions, as well as the freight and logistics sector witnessinga revival on the back of increased online retailing, and leveraging new technologies to increaseefficiency.Figure 1: Mobility Integrators Market: Ecosystem, Europe, 2011Mega Trends and Impact on the Future of MobilityFrost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation Group continually researches the Mega Trends that areimpacting our future lives and business activities; a detailed overview can be found in SarwantSingh’s recent book, New Mega Trends. “In my opinion, the most significant of these impactingmobility are urbanisation, social trends, connectivity & convergence, and eRetailing.”Continued global urbanisation provides the required population density for new mobilitysolutions to be provided and viable, as well as increased economic power in these areas;London accounts for more than 20 per cent of the UK’s GDP despite housing only 12 percent of the population, for example.This has influenced the increased use of public transport,now accounting for more than 43 per cent of trips in London compared to 34 per cent byprivate transport, but also new business models like car sharing, which complement theexisting infrastructure and are playing a role in reducing the number of cars in cities.KeyResponsibility:Providing mobilityfrom Point A to BKeyResponsibility:Providing mobilityvehicles (cars,trams, EVs, and soon)KeyResponsibility:Providing thetechnology andtechnical supportrequired to realisenew innovationsKeyResponsibility:Providinginfrastructure formobilitySource: Frost & Sullivan analysisPublic transportoperators, carsharing,bike sharing, parkingoperators, rentals,and leasing- Technologyproviders- IT support- OEMS- Supplier- TransportcompaniesGovernment laws,regulations, incentives,promotion, support, andsubsidies to the differententities*Cross interoperability and co-operation, for example, betweenOEM and technology providersconverging on infotainmentMISmartphoneapps, keylessentry, tracking,ticketing,security,paymentsProviding carsandEVs fornewbusinessmodels**** NFC, GPS,RFIDsmarttags, hardware,andsoftwareEV charging,promotion,electricity asfuel, in-vehicletelematics- Infrastructure providers- Payments providers- Charging stations- Mobile infrastructure
  3. 3. Of course, to achieve this behavioural change and reach critical mass (in terms of decliningcar use to reduce congestion in cities), significant social changes are needed. This seems tobe taking place, as younger drivers in particular are shunning car ownership in favour of carusage and mobility on demand. For example, driving license applications amongst 17-29 yearolds declined over the past decade in France, Germany and the UK, and indeed total car salesin Europe have declined overall for the past six years. Whilst much of this can be attributedto the ongoing economic situation, clearly the way in which we consider transportation isevolving.However, possibly the most influential factor impacting mobility is connectivity. Continuedproliferation of smartphones has empowered several on-demand, location-based services tobe leveraged in our mobility networks, such as nearest car sharing vehicle or bus stop. Also,the connectivity of vehicles with surrounding infrastructure allows more information anddata flow, such as dynamic real-time information or parking solutions, as well as considerablyenhanced autonomy and safety solutions in our vehicles.Indeed, Frost & Sullivan believes that all new cars will be connected by 2014, and we’re seeingeach OEM investigating the feasibility of completely autonomous vehicles. This connectivityhas also significantly impacted the retail sector, with 11 per cent of sales in 2012 being madeonline and forecast to grow to more than 20 per cent by 2020. Whilst this has impacted thehigh street and led to several new urban logistics networks, this has also started to affect theautomotive sector; whilst less than 1 per cent of cars were sold online in 2012, Frost &Sullivan forecasts that this will increase to 4 per cent by 2020 as car companies look toleverage the trend of omnichannel and digital marketing to sell more cars, as well as toreduce their overheads.New Mobility Business ModelsA combination of these trends has led to numerous innovative new business models. Almostall car companies have announced car sharing services, such as Daimler’s car2go, or compactvehicles targeted at cities, ranging from micro solutions such as the Renault Twizy, to the i3from BMW dubbed the Mega City vehicle. We’re also seeing more integrated mobilitysolutions, such as the Citroen Multicity or Daimler Moovel application, a pilot in Stuttgartand Berlin with numerous stakeholders (both private and public) that provides travel andbooking information for several modes, advising on the quickest, cheapest, and mostconvenient travel from point to point.We’ve also seen a number of innovations in the B2B mobility market, with fleet/leasingcompanies such as ALD launching the Aldo, a smartphone app allowing employees to optimisetheir travel and fleet managers to understand their employees’ travel more effectively;Leaseplan has developed the Mobility Mixx programme, which incorporates new car/bikesharing services, but also packages additional leased products (such as scooters) or offersflexible leasing terms that vary depending on the vehicle required.New Urban Mobility Business ModelsMarket Insight© 2013 Frost & Sullivan Page 3
  4. 4. Furthermore, rail operators like NS have set up the first example of a mobility integrator byproviding integrated mobility solutions in the Netherlands. This offers flexible door-to-doormobility, with a single card allowing the use of rail, scooters, taxis, car rental/sharing, and ahost of additional services, such as parking, business lounges, and even discounts for rentingoffice space where temporary mobile working is required.Conclusion – Urban Mobility 3.0 WorkshopThus, whilst there are several disruptive and challenging forces impacting the future ofmobility, the opportunities presented by these trends are vast. This inspired Frost & Sullivanto create a thought leadership workshop in 2009 to raise debate on such topics and trends,and specifically explore the business models and roles for the private and public sectors. Dueto popular demand and feedback from last year, our fifth annual workshop is “Urban Mobility3.0: New Urban Mobility Business Models.”The workshop will debate, discuss and provide recommendations on new urban mobilitymodels and how this trend can provide opportunities for government, public sector andcorporations to align their future mobility vision, products, and services toward customers’unmet needs. The workshop will also debate and discuss the role of public transport,specifically bus and rail, and low-emission vehicles providing sustainable transport of thefuture, and look to more “wild innovation” future mobility solutions, such as micro mobility,personal rapid transit (PRT), autonomous driving, and the resulting commercialisationopportunities.Frost & Sullivan is proud to host the opening of the workshop in the UK’s Houses ofParliament, which provides the perfect setting for a high-level debate on the "Death of theconventional car and rise of new urban mobility business models." The debate will bechaired by Lord Rosser and it will include keynote speeches by MP Stephen Hammond andindustry thought leaders, to be attended by high-profile parliamentarians and senior industryexecutives (by invitation only). Our workshop will be continued on day two at the newSiemens Crystal, providing a full day of panel discussions and presentations from mobilityexperts. Thus far, we’re proud to announce that the heads of mobility or senior vicepresidents from Siemens, BMW, Toyota, Nissan, Zipcar, Daimler, Leaseplan, Athlon,ParkatmyHouse, Tfl, Deutsche Bahn, Mobility International, Valeo, Bosch, Ultra PRT,Carpooling.com and IVECO have confirmed as speakers, with many more to be announcedover the coming weeks.Key objectives of the workshop include:• Highlighting the future of personal and freight mobility• Identifying the key global Mega Trends and their impact on mobility• New business models emerging to offer alternative and broadening mobility solutions, such as carsharing and new leasing mobility offerings• Analysis of multi-modality and micro-mobility solutions• Urban mobility initiatives and infrastructure, such as electric vehiclesNew Urban Mobility Business ModelsMarket Insight© 2013 Frost & Sullivan Page 4
  5. 5. • Urban logistics and key implications and opportunities as eRetailing increases to more than 20 per centby 2020• Government vision, policy, legislation, and proposals to support new mobility business models• Infrastructure trends in mobility, including a new way of working, and city as a customer• Autonomous driving commercialisation opportunities and industry roadmapTopics covered by the workshop:• Urbanisation and Impact on Personal and Freight Mobility• Integrated Mobility Solutions and Mobility Integration Business Models• Car Sharing• Micro Mobility Solutions• Autonomous Cars• Future of Car Retailing• Urban Logistics and Supply Chain Trends• Sustainable Public Transport• V2V and V2I Trends, Mobility Apps and Transport Infrastructure• High-Speed Rail• Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and Personal Rapid Transit (PRT)Military Training & Simulation Market Spreads its WingsMarket InsightAbout Frost & SullivanFrost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, works in collaboration with clients toleverage visionary innovation that addresses the global challenges and related growthopportunities that will make or break today’s market participants. For more than 50 years,we have been developing growth strategies for the Global 1000, emerging businesses, thepublic sector and the investment community. Is your organisation prepared for the nextprofound wave of industry convergence, disruptive technologies, increasing competitiveintensity, Mega Trends, breakthrough best practices, changing customer dynamics andemerging economies?Contact Us: Start the discussionCONTACT US +44 (0) 20 7343 8383 • enquiries@frost.com • www.frost.comJoin us to debate and explore the future of urban mobilitywith parliamentarians and key decision makers.19 - 20 June 2013, London, UKDay 1: Houses of Parliament | Day 2: Siemens CrystalNew Urban Mobility Business ModelsFor more information about this event, visitwww.urbanmobility.gilcommunity.com

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