Top 10 Global Energy Trends
 

Top 10 Global Energy Trends

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A presentation delivered by Beatrice Shepherd, Frost & Sullivan Director of CEE, Russia and CIS.

A presentation delivered by Beatrice Shepherd, Frost & Sullivan Director of CEE, Russia and CIS.

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  • Demand for power: The world energy consumption is projected to increase by 44% from 2006 to 2030 as per EIA 2009 forecasts, indicating strong long term demand for power globally. In OECD Europe, electricity generation is expected to increase by an average of 1.3 percent per year, from 3.4 trillion kilowatt-hours in 2007 to about 4.6 trillion kilowatt-hours by 2030. Total electricity generation in non-OECD Europe is expected to grow at an average of 2 percent per year. Europe also has an ageing fleet of power plants (power plants over 40 years old to double in 2010 ’s) and about 275GW of new capacity is expected to be required by 2020. Frost & Sullivan estimates that approximately 25GW of investment are required per year up to 2020, albeit somewhat lower levels in 2009 and 2010. France - the country plans to make charging sockets mandatory in new apartment blocks by 2012 and in all office parking lots by 2015. France will also soon be home to a Renault SA facility with a production capacity of 100,000 batteries each year. The United States hasn't invested quite so much cash or energy into a country-wide charging network, but Obama has announced plans to put one million hybrid EVs on the road by 2015. No one will buy electric cars if there are no plug-in stations, but no one will build plug-in stations without EVs on the road. That's the conundrum for both car makers and plug-in infrastructure companies. Fortunately, the public sector is stepping in to help out. Last week we wrote about Duke Energy's and FPL's commitment to buy $600 million in EV fleets. Today the French government announced it will spend $2.2 billion on a battery-charging EV network. The French are taking no prisoners in their battle to make EVs mainstream--the country plans to make charging sockets mandatory in new apartment blocks by 2012 and in all office parking lots by 2015. France will also soon be home to a Renault SA facility with a production capacity of 100,000 batteries each year. The United States hasn't invested quite so much cash or energy into a country-wide charging network, but Obama has announced plans to put one million PHEVs on the road by 2015. Of course, that's a goal that will only be possible if a charging and battery switching network is available to support the cars. Such a charging infrastructure may exist soon enough, albeit without a direct cash infusion from the government-- Better Place is already in talks with officials in Oregon and California about installing a network of battery-switching stations. The German vehicle manufacturers appear to be well behind their main competitors including of course Renault-Nissan (Leaf), General Motors (Volt), Mitsubishi (i-MiEV) and the hybrid offerings of Toyota and Honda. New entrants such as BYD from China appear ready to bring product to market by 2010
  • CCGT plants are expected to remain the technology of choice for new power stations because they are cleaner and more efficient than their alternatives, such as coal-fired power stations. They are also faster to build than coal and nuclear plants. In light of the current market conditions, the restraints of the gas turbine market are becoming less important. Algeria is the fourth-largest LNG exporter – behind Qatar, Malaysia and Indonesia. Unconventional gas production is forecast to increase from 42 percent of total US gas production in 2007 to 64 percent in 2020. Despite the current economic conditions, the long-term need for US natural gas should be strong enough to support these anticipated future production levels.   Shale gas is currently the third largest commercial production source of unconventional gas, ac-counting for 1.1 Tcf/Year or 6 per-cent of U.S. domestic production in 2007.  Australia is already an exporter of LNG and will become the biggest exporter from the 30 member OECD (the rich country club) by 2020 onwards. But the really interesting development is the quick rise in what's called "unconventional gas" supplies. That's gas being produced from so-called tight rocks and from shale (shale gas) and some coal seam methane. So dramatic has been the upturn in possible new sources of gas that the IEA is speculating about an "acute" oversupply of gas emerging. The search for unconventional gas is surging in Europe and China (where Shell and even some Australian companies, like Arrow Energy) have areas. Poland, Germany, the UK, France and other countries have huge areas of shale and tight rocks that hold gas which can't be extracted by conventional methods. Already Russia, which was the world's biggest gas producer, looks like it was overtaken by the US in 2009, with the change being driven by surging production of shale and coal seam gas. In the US and some European countries, there's now talk of accelerating the construction of gas fired power stations and closing coal powered facilities to cut carbon emissions and lower costs. Exxon quit an unconventional gas project in Hungary last month and now says that it won't have such an impact in Europe.The impact on global supply and demand won't come in Europe, it is already happening in the US where major energy groups from around the world are exploring. And guess where the biggest deposits are? In Texas, of course.
  • Frost & Sullivan definition “Smart Grid consist of a web of technologies aimed at automating, improving efficiency, and increasing availability of the electric grid ranging from generation, transmission, and distribution levels. Automation also includes tools to conduct predictive, preventative and supply analysis based on data collection that is conducted at the transmission and distribution level. ” An analysis conducted by the Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI), California, has indicated that the deployment of a smart grid could reduce annual energy consumption in the US by 56-203 billion KWh by 2030. A smart grid could also fuel the integration of renewable energy generation and facilitate the deployment of PHEVs in the future. Such a combined deployment could reduce CO2 emissions by approximately 60 to 211 million tons in 2030. Such facts are putting utilities under increasing pressure to improve the reliability and service delivery of power and these companies are on the look out for innovative solutions to assist them in meeting these objectives. The growing focus on energy efficiency has motivated manufacturers to design devices that are capable of controlling and monitoring energy usage and support environmental initiatives. Smart appliances such as smart thermostats, smart washing machines, and similar smart electronic equipment--that can be connected to the network to adjust power consumption as per real-time pricing--are already entering the market. As depicted in the figure, rapid advances have taken place in the field of smart metering over the past few decades. From manual meter readings to realization of the smart grid, developments are continuously on the rise. Smart meters represent the first steps toward energy management and constitute an integral part of the bigger picture of the "smart grid." Such energy management techniques aid in significant reduction in the cost of electricity bills. AMI provides the option of implementing time based rates which in turn can also lower energy consumption. The bigger picture in this sector is the smart grid, which will offer residential and commercial energy management services that would include demand response and load control. In addition, features such as load profiling, phase balancing, outage detection, restoration and so on will also be provided. The smart grid will prove to be beneficial not only for consumers but also for the utilities and in achieving the ultimate goal of energy conservation. The smart grid is a multi-billion dollar market, which is expected to scale unprecedented heights in the near future. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 expanded this mandate to declare that smart grid was the policy objective of the United States. Most recently (2009) as part of President Obama's economic stimulus package called The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 $4.5 billion was allocated for research development related to the "Smart Grid Investment Program". The Stimulus Plan is going to help accelerate roll out projects that already have been contracted. Secondly, the plan is going support research and development for project demonstrations. The goal is to install 40 million meters within the next two years. In recent years, the demand for electricity has exceeded the grid's capacity to handle it. This in turn has led to a strong interest to improve the current utility measurement and monitoring network structure by implementing smart technologies. As the concern for increasing energy cost heightens, demand for smart meters is expected to accelerate in the coming years. Currently, due to inefficiencies in energy supply, approximately 10 to 20 percent of energy is lost before it reaches the end user. US smart meters market CAGR 2008-2014: 52% (!) "The Electricity Regulations Act of 2006 specifies that all end-users with a monthly usage of 1000 kWh or more need to be on smart metering systems by January 2012.

Top 10 Global Energy Trends Top 10 Global Energy Trends Presentation Transcript

  • “ We Accelerate Growth” Top 10 Global Energy Trends Presented by Beatrice Shepherd, Director CEE, Russia & CIS Moscow and Warsaw, January 2011
  • Top 10 Global Energy Trends 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2020 2015 Major Trend Market Liberalisation Most power generation markets fully liberalised Focus on emerging markets retail liberalisation Growing trans-regional power trading Power Demand Growth Big expansion of electric/hybrid vehicles Global electrification reaches 80% Non-OECD countries Surpass OECD China becomes largest consumer Shale gas boom in USA New Age of Natural Gas CCGT favourite generation technology Growth in global pipeline network Massive boost in LNG availability Smarter Grids Smart meters take off in US and Europe Expansion of virtual power plants Smart meters reach most consumers in developed world Clean Coal Commercialisation Commercial CCS viability & large-scale dev-t Ultrasupercritical technology becomes prevalent Carbon Capture and Storage pilot plants Energy Storage Grid-scale energy storage takes off (pumped storage, CAES) Improved battery technologies emerge (Li-ion, NiZn, Molten Salt) Energy storage market reaches $50 billion Nuclear resurgence Massive nuclear expansion in China Nuclear renaissance in some European countries 56 reactors under construction globally 480+ reactors operational Energy Efficiency Global coverage for energy-efficient lighting Green buildings become norm in developed world Global penetration of micro- renewables and micro-CHP Renewable grid parity Solar and wind reach grid parity in EU and Japan Grid parity reached in majority of developed world Renewables share in power generation: 25% - globally, 30% - EU Demand Management “ Peak shaving” through energy efficiency, promotion of embedded generation Smart meters optimise consumer usage patterns and flatten peak demand Direct load control of smart appliances via remote man-t
  • World Energy Consumption 2030 7.15 exajoule +44 % Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook (2009). = 28% of global energy consumption + 25% energy consumption Electric Vehicles Boom
    • € 500 million
    • 5 million EV by 2030
    • $2.2 billion
    • Mandatory CS by 2015
    • $ 2.4 billion
    • 1 million HEV by 2015
    25 GW per year up to 2020 are required Power Demand Growth Big expansion of electric/hybrid vehicles Global electrification reaches 80% Non-OECD countries Surpass OECD China becomes largest consumer
    • Technology of choice for the years to come:
      • Gas-fired generation – most established technology – safe bet.
      • More efficient, cleaner and require less capital costs per MW than coal-fired power stations;
      • Quicker to build than nuclear reactors.
    Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) LNG Boost and US Shale Gas Boom Shale gas boom in USA New Age of Natural Gas CCGT favourite generation technology Growth in global pipeline network Massive boost in LNG availability
  • Clean Coal Technology Roadmap Clean Coal Commercialisation Commercial CCS viability & large-scale dev-t Ultrasupercritical technology becomes prevalent Carbon Capture and Storage pilot plants Country / Region Clean Coal Technology Policy Initiatives United States
    • DoE “Clean Coal Technology Programme and Clean Coal Power Initiative”
    • FutureGen Industrial Alliance, Inc.
    Canada
    • ecoENERGY Technology Initiative (2007)
    • ban on new dirty coal plants after 2012
    Australia
    • COAL21 Action Plan
    • Clean coal projects underway – CS Energy Callide Oxyfuel, ZeroGen
    China
    • All new coal-fired power plants to be of state-of-the-art commercially available technology (2008).
    • World’s most efficient (supercritical and ultrasupercritical) coal-fired power plants to be built in China.
    Europe
    • EU target: to deploy up to 12 carbon capture and storage pilot plants by 2015.
    • UK: no new coal plants without carbon capture and storage (2009).
  • IAEA Pessimistic Frost & Sullivan IAEA Optimistic 372 GW 2008 473 GW 590 GW 1990 320 GW 748 GW 120 GW 140 GW 140 GW Added +57 GW +358 GW +221 GW 5 GW +516 GW Forecast Scenario 2030 Total Installed Capacity Decommissioned Nuclear resurgence Massive nuclear expansion in China Nuclear renaissance in some European countries 56 reactors under construction globally 480+ reactors operational
    • EU: 20% renewable energy by 2020;
    • US: 22 states with 10-20% renewable targets;
    • China: 100 GW of renewable energy by 2020
    • Cost reductions are underway
    • Technology advancements
    • New renewable capacities
    Renewable Grid Parity – cost of producing electricity from fossil fuels is equal or cheaper to the cost of producing energy from renewable sources. Renewable grid parity Solar and wind reach grid parity in EU and Japan Grid parity reached in majority of developed world Renewables share in power generation: 25% - globally, 30% - EU
  • Manual meter reading: monthly reading of kWh Automatic Meter Reading (AMR): one-way monthly kWh readings, theft/outage detection and restoration Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI): on-demand reads, programmable load intervals, two-way metering communication, times of use (TOU), demand response, critical peak pricing (CPP), real-time pricing (RTP). Smart Meters: solid state platform, integrated communications, remote connect and disconnect; voltage, current readings; power factor correction; detailed power outage data, advanced theft detection. Smart Grid: residential and commercial energy man-t services; Home Area Network (HAN) gateways with power line communication or radio frequency; web-based applications – demand response, pre-payment, load control, revenue protection; distribution – load profiling, phase balancing, transformer optimization, energy forecasting, outage detection, restoration automation, work force and asset man-t. Government regulation and funding Reduction in power theft and fraud Demand response strategies Dwindling energy resources Indication of power outage and fault location Carbon footprint reduction Smarter Grids Smart meters take off in US and Europe Expansion of virtual power plants Smart meters reach most consumers in developed world Demand Management “ Peak shaving” through energy efficiency, promotion of embedded generation Smart meters optimise consumer usage patterns and flatten peak demand Direct load control of smart appliances via remote man-t
  • 1980 2000 1990 Evolution of Energy Efficiency Technologies in Buildings 2010 2020 Systems Integration Building Management & Control Building Automation Green Buildings IT Convergence Functional Controllers Home Automation Building Control Building Automation Smart Buildings Energy Control Construction & Operational Efficiency Building Performance Integrated Networking Energy Management Enhanced Management Intelligent Buildings HVAC Control Intelligent Green Buildings Security Convergence Smart City Low Energy Lighting Micro- Renewables Micro- Generation Smart Grids Energy Efficiency Global coverage for energy-efficient lighting Green buildings become norm in developed world Global penetration of micro- renewables and micro-CHP
  • Energy Storage Grid-scale energy storage takes off (pumped storage, CAES) Improved battery technologies emerge (Li-ion, NiZn, Molten Salt) Energy storage market reaches $50 billion
  • Nordic Power Exchange world’s first multination electric power trading platform “ truly integrated pan-European energy market” is pursued Both countries are systematically working towards further liberalisation of their energy markets Market Liberalisation Most power generation markets fully liberalised Focus on emerging markets retail liberalisation Growing trans-regional power trading
  • Russian Energy Policy of the Future Amidst Global Trends
    • Renewable opportunities, primarily in hydropower and wind
    • Explore LNG potential as rival suppliers are increasingly active in key export markets (EU, Asia)
    • Invest in clean coal technology
    • Catch up in terms of smart meters deployment and expand smart grid development
    • Russia has the potential to emerge as the world ‘ s largest nuclear power nation
    • Tackle surging power demand;
    • explore EV potential
    • Improve energy efficiency of residential and industrial sectors;
    • effective energy storage
    • Continue with market liberalisation, eventually move towards trans-regional power trading
    Russian Role to Play
  • For additional information Joanna Lewandowska Corporate Communications ICT Europe (0048) 22 390 41 46 [email_address]