What are the Consequences of Fukushima?     Jonathan Robinson, Senior Consultant         Enguerran Ripert, Consultant     ...
Jonathan Robinson                        Functional Expertise                        •   5 years of research & consulting ...
Enguerran Ripert                   Functional Expertise                   • 4 years strategy consulting experience within ...
Roberta Gamble                     Functional Expertise                     •Over a decade of consulting energy and power ...
What Are The Consequences of Fukushima?Analyst Briefing Overview                                          5
What Happened in Japan                         6
Nuclear Reactors Planned and Under Construction as ofMarch 2011                                                           ...
Global Historical and Forecast Reactor Pressure Vessel Orders                                                      Source:...
Germany                                    Expected Decommissioning in Power                                           Gen...
Russia                                                          Expected Decommissioning in Power                         ...
United Kingdom                                                                        Expected Decommissioning in Power   ...
Italy                                                              Expected Decommissioning in Power                      ...
United States  Current State of Nuclear Energy in the US  •   US is world’s largest nuclear producer, with approximately  ...
United States (cont)Announced               Site                   COL    Reactor Type      UnitsApplication              ...
Levelised Generation Cost By Generation Type (EIA)                                                Source: Energy Informati...
Typical Nuclear Generation Cost Breakdown, 2010                                                  Source: International Ene...
Nuclear Safety and Life ExtensionsTimeline Breakdown of a Nuclear Project                                          ~10 yea...
Contender Countries                      •Belarus                      •Italy                      •Poland                ...
Conclusion  1. The cost of nuclear safety will increase, making CCGT even more attractive.  2. Nuclear plant life extensio...
Next Steps  Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth  Consulting Services to support you and your team...
Your Feedback is Important to Us             What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?Growth Forecasts?Competitive...
Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, andTwitter              http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSulliva...
For Additional InformationChiara Carella                                     Juliet ShawCorporate Communications Director,...
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The Future of Nuclear Power-What are the Consequences of Fukushima?

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An overview by Jonathan Robinson, Enguerran Ripert, and Roberta Gamble, Frost & Sullivan.

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The Future of Nuclear Power-What are the Consequences of Fukushima?

  1. 1. What are the Consequences of Fukushima? Jonathan Robinson, Senior Consultant Enguerran Ripert, Consultant Roberta Gamble, Director Energy & Power 29th March 2011
  2. 2. Jonathan Robinson Functional Expertise • 5 years of research & consulting experience, involvement in more than 40 projects. Particular expertise in: • Opportunity Assessment • Procurement Strategy • Supply Chain Management Strategy • Due Diligence for IPO/M&A activity Industry Expertise • Experience base covering broad range of energy sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants: • Renewables sector (wind, solar, tidal, hydro) • Conventional thermal energy (coal, gas) • Nuclear • Oil & Gas • Future energy (fuel cells, energy storage, smart energy)Jonathan RobinsonSenior Consultant What I bring to the Team • Extensive track-record of energy focused research and consulting projectsEnergy, Environment • Knowledge of, and relationships with, key stakeholders in the energy sectorPractice & Building • Strong analytical skillsTechnologies Practice Career Highlights • Before Frost & Sullivan, worked for a political consultancy in London and for the NSW State Government inLondon (UK) Australia. Education and Nationality • MBus, University of Sydney; BSc Politics & Law, University of Southampton, UK National. 2
  3. 3. Enguerran Ripert Functional Expertise • 4 years strategy consulting experience within a corporation and as a freelancer. Project experience includes: • Market expansion/entry • Product launch with potential market calibration • Mergers & acquisitions • Commercial due diligence • Strategic sourcing and procurement support, best practice analysis • Business plan development Industry Expertise Energy sector experience - BP, Saudi Aramco (Venture assessment, Procurement strategy) - Enel, EDF (Nuclear sourcing strategies) - First Reserve Private Equity (M&A) Environment and Building Technologies - Philips (New market creation, market expansion)Enguerran Ripert - Metawater (Market analysis)• Consultant - IMI, CRH (Business plan development)• London What I bring to the Team • Well developed communication and problem solving skills, Efficient project management and a good technicalFrost & Sullivan understanding. Strong analytical skills and Fluency in English and French.Europe Career Highlights • Frost & Sullivan highlights - Part of a multi million Euro procurement project with a key Oil & Gas client - Due Diligence project for multi billion M&A deal - Nuclear market assessment for a top 5 European utility - TV appearance (CNBC, Bloomberg) • Prior to Frost & Sullivan - 2007-2008 Paris-based Freelance consultant – Voltalia (Renewable energy start-up, 1-yr validation of entry into India) - 2005-2007 London-based research analyst – Corporate Executive Board Education • BSc (Hons) Chemistry, University College London 3
  4. 4. Roberta Gamble Functional Expertise •Over a decade of consulting energy and power equipment and solution providers, including - Third-party business plan verification - Acquisition target research and due diligence - Geographical expansion strategy - New market exploration Industry Expertise •Thirteen-plus years in the power and energy sector, with focus on both traditional and alterative energy markets including: - Gas and steam turbine markets, as well as power plant services markets - Generator sets and other distributed generation solutions - Renewables, in particular solar and wind industry - T&D markets with a focus on smart grid and metering What I bring to the Team Roberta Gamble • Years of industry contacts and connections, understanding market trends from the participant’s point of view Director, • Extensive client interaction and strategic project management Energy and Power • Oversight of a diverse and global team of analysts and consultants Systems • Fluent in Italian • Oft quoted and interviewed in national publications including the New York Times, Chicago Tribune, and NPR Frost & Sullivan Career Highlights North America • Director of Frost & Sullivan Energy business unit since 2006, analyst and management roles since 2000 Mountain View, CA • Previous related experience at Siemens Power Corporation • Long term client relationships with major industry players, including - GE - Caterpillar - Cummins - Schneider Electric Education •Bachelors in International Studies and in Economics from University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee 4
  5. 5. What Are The Consequences of Fukushima?Analyst Briefing Overview 5
  6. 6. What Happened in Japan 6
  7. 7. Nuclear Reactors Planned and Under Construction as ofMarch 2011 Russia & CIS 14% Units = 28 GW = 22 6 Europe 30% Units = 16 GW = 22 4 14 4 Asia 5% Units = 84 North America20% Units = 27 GW = 90 GW = 43 4 Middle East 2% Units = 2 GW = 2 World 15% Units = 152 GW = 173 South America 1% Units = 2 GW = 2 Countries/Regions Using Nuclear Power Countries/Regions Planning for Nuclear Power Location of Nuclear Reactors (Under Construction & Planned) % of Nuclear Power in 2010 Energy Mix Source: PRIS database, Frost & Sullivan 7
  8. 8. Global Historical and Forecast Reactor Pressure Vessel Orders Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan 8
  9. 9. Germany Expected Decommissioning in Power Generation Capacity Oil 18,000 Megawatts (MW) 16,000 1,870 14,000 1,100 Gas 12,000 1,520 10,000 3,200 6,610 2010 Power Mix (MWh) 8,000 Hydro Others 6,000 Coal 4.2% 8.0% Hard Coal 4,000 8,150 20.1% 6,190 Wind 2,000 6.3% 0 Nuclear 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020 Lignite 23.5% Nuclear 23.3% Oil CCGT/Gas 1.6% 13.0% No Nuclear Orders, prioritisation of CCGT Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan 9
  10. 10. Russia Expected Decommissioning in Power Generation Capacity Oil 30,000 Megawatts (MW) 1,470 25,000 1,420 Gas 20,000 11,890 15,000 13,700 2010 Power Mix (MWh) Coal Oil and Other 10,000 8,920 Thermal 5,000 6,360 Hydro 2.7% 18.3% 2,790 4,600 Nuclear 0 Natural Gas 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020 45.2% Nuclear Nuclear Orders (MW) 16.3% Equipment Orders (MW) 3,000 Coal 2,500 17.5% 2,000 1,500 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 2,400 1,000 1,800 1,500 500 1,200 600 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan 10
  11. 11. United Kingdom Expected Decommissioning in Power Generation Capacity Oil Megawatts (MW) 14,000 12,000 2,790 Gas 10,000 8,000 6,000 2010 Power Mix (MWh) Coal 8,000 4,000 Hydro Othe r R e ne w a ble s Othe r 2.1% 2,000 2.7% 0.6% 2,640 Wind 0 1,200 Nuclear 1.8% C oa l 32.2% 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020 Nuc le a r 13.5% Nuclear Orders (MW) Oil Equipment Orders (MW) 1,800 1.6% 1,600 Gas 1,400 45.5% 1,200 1,000 800 1,700 1,700 1,700 600 1,100 1,100 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan 11
  12. 12. Italy Expected Decommissioning in Power Generation Capacity Oil 7,000 Megawatts (MW) 6,000 5,000 2,610 Gas 4,000 3,000 890 3,150 2010 Power Mix (MWh) Coal Natural Gas 2,000 2,690 54.1% 1,000 1,080 480 0 Nuclear 2011 - 2015 2016 - 2020 Solar PV 0.1% Nuclear Orders (MW) Wind Coal 13.5% 1.5% 1,800 Equipment Orders (MW) Geothermal Hydro Other Thermal 1,600 1.7% 14.8% 14.3% 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 1,650 1,650 600 400 200 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Source: McCoys, Frost & Sullivan 12
  13. 13. United States Current State of Nuclear Energy in the US • US is world’s largest nuclear producer, with approximately US Power Mix by Output, 30% of worldwide nuclear electricity generation 2011 • 104 plants in operation across 31 States, with a production of 799 GWh • Exelon largest owner of nuclear power in the US, 3rd largest in world • About 20% of US power is from nuclear energy • Nuclear waste a growing concern: • Almost 72 tons of nuclear waste • Distributed among 30 states, some with no active nuclear power • Mostly held at nuclear sites • Three-fourths is water cooled, rest is dry cask but that is considered a temporary solution by the government • NRC to review safety across all US nuclear reactors, with newly formed committee. Source: EIA • Safety costs are expected to increase 13
  14. 14. United States (cont)Announced Site COL Reactor Type UnitsApplication DateAlternate Energy Hammet (ID) 2012 AP1000, or APWR 1Holdings • 4 new reactors are planned for 2015; 9 total byAmarillo Power Amarillo (TX) 2010 Areva US EPR 2 2020Constellation Energy Calvert Cliffs (MD) 2008 Areva US EPR 2 • Obama government to provide $8.3B loan Nine Mile Point (NY) susp Areva US EPR 1 guarantee for 2 new reactors in Georgia; $36BDominion North Anna (VA) 2007 GE APWR 1 in current version of 2012 draft budget forDTE Energy Fermi (MI) susp GE ESBWR 1 nuclearDuke Energy William States, Lee 2008 West.AP1000 2 (SC) • Nuclear Regulatory Commission statement that Piketon (OH) 2013 Areva US EPR 1 no change in nuclear plansEntergy River Bend (LA) susp GE ESBWR 1 • However, inspectors at existing sites double- Grand Gulf (MS) susp GE ESBWR 1 checking emergency equipment; may soon startFPL Turkey Point (FL) 2009 West. AP1000 2 90 day study into US vs. Japan plantsLuminant Comanche Peak (TX) 2008 GE APWR 2 • Questions on whether recent upgrades in USNRG Energy South Texas Project 2007 GE ABWR 2 were also made in JapanPPL Bell Bend (PA) 2008 Areva US EPR 1 • However, NRC has been accused of beingProgress Energy Harris (NC) 2007 West.AP1000 2 complacent on some recent issues, such as Levy County (FL) 2008 West.AP1000 2 leaking pipes, electrical malfunctionsSCE&G Summer (SC) 2007 West.AP1000 2 • Some in Congress requesting freezes on anySouthern Vogtle (GA) 2008 West.AP1000 2 expansion plans, a rescinding of NRC decisionsTennesse Valley Auth. Watts Bar 2009 West AP1000 1 to relicense Vermont plant Bellanfonte (AL) susp West.AP1000 1Transition Power Dev Blue Castle (UT) 2012 Areva US EPR 2 Source: World Nuclear Association 14
  15. 15. Levelised Generation Cost By Generation Type (EIA) Source: Energy Information Administration, Frost & Sullivan 15
  16. 16. Typical Nuclear Generation Cost Breakdown, 2010 Source: International Energy Agency, Frost & Sullivan 16
  17. 17. Nuclear Safety and Life ExtensionsTimeline Breakdown of a Nuclear Project ~10 years ~40 years ~10 years Construction Operation Decommissioning Distribution of Global Nuclear Plants by Age 35 33 32 30 25 24 22 22 21 21 Number of Units 20 19 18 16 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 11 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 Age of Units Highly likely to be granted life extensions of up to 10 years Benefit of granting a Nuplex (5 years) – €10-13trillion (~ +7200TWh) Source: PRIS, Frost & Sullivan 17
  18. 18. Contender Countries •Belarus •Italy •Poland •Bangladesh •Indonesia •Vietnam •Turkey •Thailand •UAE •Jordan • Saudi Arabia •Kuwait •Egypt •Tunisia •Nigeria •Uruguay •Morocco •Chile •Argentina 18
  19. 19. Conclusion 1. The cost of nuclear safety will increase, making CCGT even more attractive. 2. Nuclear plant life extensions (nuplex) will be extremely difficult to refuse as the economic benefit is so large 3. Contender countries will take more time than expected to access nuclear as capability reviews will be stricter 4. In Europe, decision delays will increase costs but nuclear is still expected to provide around 30% of Europe’s electricity to at least 2020. 5. Financing is the main issue rather than public reticence, however looming elections following necessary cost cuts will further delay decisions if nuclear is deemed unattractive. 19
  20. 20. Next Steps Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. (enquiries@frost.com) Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth occurring in London on 17 – 18 May 2011. (www.gil-global.com) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) 20
  21. 21. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?Growth Forecasts?Competitive Structure?Emerging Trends?Strategic Recommendations?Other? Please inform us by rating this presentation Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies 21
  22. 22. Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, andTwitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan 22
  23. 23. For Additional InformationChiara Carella Juliet ShawCorporate Communications Director, Sales DirectorEuropeDirect: +44 (0) 207 343 8314 Direct: +44 (0) 207 343 8363chiara.carelle@frost.com juliet.shaw@frost.comJonathan Robinson Roberta GambleSenior Consultant DirectorDirect: +44 (0) 207 343 8314 Energy & Environmentjonathan.robinson@frost.com Direct: 650- 475- 4522 roberta.gamble@frost.com 23
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