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Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market
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Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market

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Frost & Sullivan analysis of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market

Frost & Sullivan analysis of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market

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  • 1. Strategic Review of the Asia-Pacific Offshore Rigs Market 08 th & 09 th Nov 2010 Subbu Bettadapura Associate Director, Energy Practice, Frost & Sullivan
  • 2. Deliveries and Capital Expenditure Jack-up, Semis, Drill Ships & Tender Rigs Deployment in Asia Pacific Current Market Scenario Table of Contents Contents Review of FPSOs Markets Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Current Market Scenario Owners & Manufacturers of Rigs FPSO Operators in Asia Pacific Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market 1 2
  • 3. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Current Market Scenario - Crude Oil Prices (Dollars per Barrel) <ul><li>Oil prices to rise in correlation with the continued global economic recovery </li></ul><ul><li>2010 crude oil prices average: $79 a barrel </li></ul><ul><li>2011 crude oil prices average: $84 a barrel </li></ul>Source: Financial Forecast Center, Frost &amp; Sullivan
  • 4. Current Market Scenario: Asia Pacific – Key Fields Source: Compiled by Frost &amp; Sullivan Key Fields on Indian West Coast Mukta: 80 meters water depth Mumbai D-18: 90 meters Mumbai EC: 90 meters Mumbai CA – 1: 55 meters Heera (B-38 &amp; B-37-B): 50 meters Key fields in Indonesian Waters Terang/Sirasun: 150 – 300 meters water depth Gendalo: 1,425 meters West Seno expansion: 953 meters Aton: 1,150 meters Key fields in Malaysian Waters Kikeh: 1330 meters water depth Kikeh Kecil: 1359 meters Gumusut/Kakap: 1000 meters Kebabangan (SB-J) (Gas): 300 meters Key fields in Australia Montara, Puffin SW, Vincent, Van Gogh, Pyrenees and Crux. Jansz, Jansz SE, Gorgon, Longtom, Maitland and Sole Key fields on Indian East Coast D6 (Dhirubhai): 900 meters water depth M Field (Padmavati): 500 meters Krishna-Godavari G-1 AA: 200 to 490 meters Tapti South: 20 meters Deepwater Definition • Deepwater: + 3000 ft (900 m) • Ultra Deepwater: + 7000 ft (2100 m) Thailand Arthit (Block B15A &amp; B16A) Myanmar Shwe (Block A-1) China PRC Peng Lai 19-3 Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets
  • 5. <ul><li>Current Competitive Offshore Rig Utilization by Rig Type </li></ul>Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets <ul><li>Market Restraints </li></ul><ul><li>Overbuilding at the peak of the last cycle and </li></ul><ul><li>Focus on onshore plays due to shale gas boom </li></ul>Current Market Scenario Source: RigZone Rig Type 15-Oct-09 Contracted/ Total) 15-Apr-10 Contracted/ Total) 15-Sep-10 Contracted/Total) 15-Oct-10 Contracted/Total) Drillship 88.60% (39/44) 87.50% (42/48) 76.90% (40/52) 80.80% (42/52) Jackup 74.70% (254/340) 80.10% (282/352) 76.50% (276/361) 74.70% (271/363) Semisub 78.60% (125/159) 83.40% (136/163) 83.80% (140/167) 86.80% (145/167) Tender 76.90% (20/26) 82.80% (24/29) 80.00% (24/30) 83.30% (25/30)
  • 6. <ul><li>Current Competitive Offshore Rig Utilization by Region </li></ul>Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Current Market Scenario 2007-2008 Utilization: 91% globally Source: RigZone Region % Utilization (Contracted/ Total) Africa - West 87.0% (47/54) Asia - SouthEast 82.6% (71/86) Europe - North Sea 88.7% (63/71) Mediterranean 59.1% (13/22) MidEast - Persian Gulf 77.1% (74/96) N. Amercia - Mexico 63.6% (21/33) N. Amercia - US GOM 62.5% (50/80) S. America - Brazil 90.2% (55/61)
  • 7. <ul><li>Current Competitive Offshore Rig Utilization by Regions in Asia </li></ul>Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Current Market Scenario 2007-2008 Utlilization: 100% in South Asia and Southeast Asia Source: RigZone 15-Oct-09 Contracted/ Total) 15-Apr-10 Contracted/ Total) 15-Sep-10 Contracted/Total) 15-Oct-10 Contracted/Total) Asia - Far East 91.70% (22/24) 83.30% (20/24) 75.00% (21/28) 75.00% (21/28) Asia - South 96.90% (31/32) 88.90% (32/36) 87.50% (28/32) 96.90% (31/32) Asia - SouthEast 73.30% (55/75) 71.80% (61/85) 82.60% (71/86) 82.60% (71/86) Australia 100.00% (14/14) 91.70% (11/12) 100.00% (12/12) 91.70% (11/12)
  • 8. <ul><li>Current Day Rates of Drillships and Semisubs </li></ul>Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Current Market Scenario Operators - Willing to wait for the availability to pressure dayrates further before fixing long term contracts, Contractors - Reluctant to succumb to dayrate reductions in order to secure backlog. Snapshot as of 15 th Oct 2010 Source: RigZone
  • 9. <ul><li>Current Day Rates of Jack-ups and Tender Rig </li></ul>Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Current Market Scenario Jack-up day rates will continue to soften in the short term before recovering Snapshot as of 15 th Oct 2010 Low utilization and new capacity addition reduced day rates in 2009/2010 from their peak in 2007-2008. Source: RigZone
  • 10. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Source: Industry sources; Compiled by Frost &amp; Sullivan Jack-up and Drillship Deployment in Asia Pacific (2010) Jack-up Deployment in Asia Pacific, 2010 Total: 90 Drillship Deployment in Asia Pacific, 2010 Total: 10
  • 11. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Source: Industry sources; Compiled by Frost &amp; Sullivan Semi-submersible Deployment in Asia Pacific; 2010 Total: 22 Tender Rigs Deployment in Asia Pacific; 2010 Total: 17 Semisubmersible and Tender Rigs Deployment in Asia Pacific (2010)
  • 12. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Source: Industry sources; Compiled by Frost &amp; Sullivan Jack-up Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific Jack-up Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific; 2010 Total: 90
  • 13. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Source: Industry sources; Compiled by Frost &amp; Sullivan Drill Ship Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific Drillship Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific; 2010 Total: 10
  • 14. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Source: Industry sources; Compiled by Frost &amp; Sullivan Semi-submersible Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific Semi-submersible Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific; 2010 Total: 22
  • 15. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Source: Industry sources; Compiled by Frost &amp; Sullivan Tender Rigs Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific Tender Rigs Owners with Deployment in Asia Pacific; 2010 Total: 17
  • 16. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Jack-up Manufacturers Jack-ups Manufacturers Market Share; APAC Deployment, 2010 Source: World Fleet Data Others include: Mitsubishi, PPL Shipyard, Rauma Repola, Italcanteiri Shipyard, Nippon Kokan, Levingston Shipbuilding, Mazagon Dock, CFEM, Astilleros Corrientes, U.E.I Clydebank, China Shipbuilding, Alabama Drydock, Jurong Shipyard and Daewoo Shipbuilding From Data available for 90 Jack-ups deployed in Asia Pacific <ul><li>LeTourneau is owned by Rowan Companies </li></ul><ul><li>Ingalls is part of Northrop Grumman </li></ul><ul><li>Far East Levingston is now Keppel FELs </li></ul>
  • 17. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Drill Ships Manufacturers Drill Ships Manufacturers Market Share; APAC Deployment, 2010 Source: World Fleet Data From Data available for 10 Drillships deployed in Asia Pacific
  • 18. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Semi-subs Manufacturers Semi-Subs Manufacturers Market Share; APAC Deployment, 2010 Source: World Fleet Data From Data available for 22 Semi-subs deployed in Asia Pacific
  • 19. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Tender Rigs Manufacturers Tender Rigs Manufacturers Market Share; APAC Deployment, 2010 Source: World Fleet Data From Data available for 17 Tender Rigs deployed in Asia Pacific
  • 20. Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets The worst is over for Rigs; but challenges exist <ul><li>The new local rigs coming into the APAC market are likely to secure charters. National oil companies in the region are likely to give preference to domestic service providers to localize the rig market, in replacement of existing foreign-owned rigs. </li></ul><ul><li>Demand picking up in Southeast Asia </li></ul><ul><li>Many E&amp;P companies are modestly increasing their capital expenditure budgets for 2011 </li></ul>Conclusion
  • 21. Deliveries and Capital Expenditure Jack-up, Semis, Drill Ships &amp; Tender Rigs Deployment in Asia Pacific Current Market Scenario Table of Contents Contents Review of FPSOs Markets Review of Jack-ups, Semis and Drill Ships Markets Current Market Scenario Owners &amp; Manufacturers of Rigs FPSO Operators in Asia Pacific Strategic Review of the Asia Pacific Offshore Rigs Market 1 2
  • 22. Review of FPSOs Markets FPSO Deployment in the Asia Pacific, 2010 Total 61 FPSOs deployed in APAC waters Leased Versus Owned Total: 61 FPSO Markets – Current Market; Asia Pacific <ul><li>The FPSO market has grown as the offshore oil industry has ventured into deeper and more remote locations. The market is in entering the maturity phase </li></ul><ul><li>FPSO projects are mostly long-term and need large capital outlay. Stable market conditions are necessary for the FPSO projects to take-off. The FPSO was negatively impacted by the 2009 economic recession. </li></ul><ul><li>The FPSO market is on the road to recovery. Good prospects indicated for 2011 and beyond </li></ul>Source: World Fleet Data
  • 23. Review of FPSOs Markets FPSO Markets – Current Market; Asia Pacific FPSO Operators in the Asia Pacific, 2010 Total 61 FPSOs deployed in APAC waters Source: World Fleet Data
  • 24. Review of FPSOs Markets Asia is emerging as a major market for FPSOs More deepwater plays globally National oil companies in the Asia Pacific region Emergence of smaller independent oil &amp; gas companies Viability of offshore marginal fields Fast track projects/Phased developments Market Drivers <ul><li>APAC Installations </li></ul><ul><li>FPSOs deployment favorable in Asia Pacific – benign and shallow waters </li></ul><ul><li>Most past deployments have been tanker conversions </li></ul><ul><li>The proportion of new builds is expected to increase in the forecast </li></ul>FPSO Markets – Market Drivers Source: Industry Sources, Frost &amp; Sullivan
  • 25. Review of FPSOs Markets Global FPS Installation Capital Expenditure, 2010-2014 Total: US$ 37 Billion Lower Capital Outlay Required for APAC Installations Most of the planned installations in Asia will be redeployments. These require minimal capital outlay for upgrades and modifications Asia Pacific has benign and shallow waters, thus allowing simpler, cost effective FPS solutions to be implemented FPSO Markets – FPS Installation Capital Expenditure Source: Industry Sources, Frost &amp; Sullivan
  • 26. Review of FPSOs Markets <ul><li>Innovation is important – but tough sell with major oil &amp; gas companies </li></ul><ul><li>Smaller independent operators more open to selecting new innovative designs compared to large multi-national operators </li></ul><ul><li>The primary aim of innovation is to reduce costs of the vessels, other development components and project operations </li></ul><ul><li>New design concepts are proposed by engineering companies, contractors and fabricators </li></ul><ul><li>An innovative new FPS design can reduce the capital and operating costs </li></ul><ul><li>An unproven concept must have cost advantage over other rival field proven solutions if it is to compete </li></ul><ul><li>A minimum savings of 10-20% on capital expenditure and or operation expenditure relative to proven solutions are required to justify for an operator to choose a new FPS design </li></ul>FPSO Markets - Innovation
  • 27. Review of FPSOs Markets FPSO Markets – FPSO Installations Forecast Source: Mustang Engineering, Frost &amp; Sullivan Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Number of FPSO Installations 10 11 12 11 12 16 19 9 9 10
  • 28. Review of FPSOs Markets <ul><li>INDONESIA- Deep Water </li></ul><ul><li>Gehem </li></ul><ul><li>Gendalo </li></ul>Prospective FPSO Projects in Asia Pacific <ul><li>THAILAND </li></ul><ul><li>PTTEP Block B6/27 Nang Nuan FPSO </li></ul><ul><li>VIETNAM </li></ul><ul><li>Lam Son JOC FPSO </li></ul><ul><li>Chevron Block 48/95 &amp; 52/97 FSO </li></ul><ul><li>Bien Dong Hai Thach &amp; Moc Tinh FSO </li></ul><ul><li>AUSTRALIA </li></ul><ul><li>INPEX Ichthys FPSO </li></ul><ul><li>Woodside Browse LNG Development </li></ul><ul><li>MALAYSIA </li></ul><ul><li>Petronas FLNG FEED </li></ul><ul><li>Shell Mallikai TLWP </li></ul><ul><li>Petronas/MISC FSRU </li></ul><ul><li>INDONESIA </li></ul><ul><li>INPEX Masela FLNG </li></ul><ul><li>Petramina FSRU </li></ul><ul><li>INDIA </li></ul><ul><li>KG-DWN-98/2 ONGC </li></ul><ul><li>INDONESIA- Shallow Water </li></ul><ul><li>Terang/Sirasun FPSO (TSB), </li></ul><ul><li>Pagerungan, </li></ul><ul><li>Madura, </li></ul><ul><li>Kakap Natuna </li></ul><ul><li>Bukit Tua </li></ul>Source; MODEC, Industry
  • 29. For Additional Information Donna Jeremiah Corporate Communications Asia Pacific +603 6204 5832 [email_address] Carrie Low Corporate Communications Asia Pacific +603 6204 5910 [email_address] Subramanya Bettadapura Associate Director Energy &amp; Power Systems +603 6207 1059 [email_address]
  • 30. “ Partnering with clients to create innovative growth strategies &amp;quot; Thank you

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