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Strategic Analysis of the North American Small and Compact SUV Market
 

Strategic Analysis of the North American Small and Compact SUV Market

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    Strategic Analysis of the North American Small and Compact SUV Market Strategic Analysis of the North American Small and Compact SUV Market Presentation Transcript

    • Strategic Analysis of the North American Small and Compact Sports Utility Vehicle Market Top 20 Global OEMs Target Launch of Over 62 Models by 2020 NC7A-18 December 2013
    • Research Team Lead Analyst Contributing Analyst Bhavna Bhaisare Shwetha Surender Industry Analyst—BSIG Automotive & Transportation Senior Research Analyst—BSIG Automotive & Transportation Project Manager For more information: Vishwas Shankar Jeannette Garcia Senior Consultant and Program Manager—BSIG Automotive & Transportation Corporate Communications – North America Automotive & Transportation +1.210.477.8427 Jeannette.Garcia@frost.com NC7A-18 2
    • Contents Section Slide Numbers 1. Executive Summary 4 2. Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology 16 3. Definitions and Segmentation 23 4. Market Overview 26 - Small and Compact SUV Roadmap of OEMs - Product Mix of the Market - Brands Market Overview 5. Mega Trends and Industry Convergence Implications 40 6. External Challenges: Drivers and Restraints—Small and Compact SUV Market 42 7. Unit Shipment Scenario and Revenue Potential Forecast 48 - Small and Compact SUV Market—Unit Shipment Scenario Analysis - North America Market—Revenue Potential Forecast - North America Market for Small and Compact SUV Segment 8. Comparative Analysis 53 - Segmentation Based on Range (Derived from MSRP) NC7A-18 3
    • Contents Section Slide Numbers - MSRP Bandwidth of Small and Compact SUVs in North America - Comparative Analysis—Vehicle Length vs. GVWR - Comparative Analysis—Vehicle Length Vs. Average MSRP - Comparative Analysis—Horsepower vs. Torque - Comparative Analysis: Engine Capacity vs. Horsepower - Comparative Analysis—Engine Capacity vs. Torque - Comparative Analysis—Weight vs. Horsepower Vehicle Feature Analysis 65 - Key Features Comparative Analysis—Interiors - Key Features Comparative Analysis—Exteriors and Power Train - Key Features Comparative Analysis—Safety - Key Features Comparative Analysis—Transmission Specification - Key Features Comparative Analysis—Power Train Specifications - Key Features Comparative Analysis—Power Train Specifications 2020 NC7A-18 4
    • Contents Section Slide Numbers Consumer Profiling 72 Case Studies 74 Conclusions and Future Outlook 79 - Key Findings and Future Outlook - Key Conclusions and Recommendations - The Last Word—3 Big Predictions Appendix NC7A-18 84 5
    • Key Findings Nearly 32 small and compact sports utility vehicles (SUVs) were available in the North American market at the end of 2012. This segment is also the 3rd highest-selling segment in North America, with a 13% share in 2013. Small and Compact SUV Market: Key Takeaways, North America, 2012 1 The global top 20 original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) target nearly 38 models in North America before the end of 2013 and a total of 62 models by 2020. Overall, the market in North America is expected to pass 3.2 million units in sales volume by 2020. 2 Mass-market OEMs, with revenue of $48.46 billion in 2012 over luxury OEMs ($9.40 billion), are expected to be among the biggest revenue generators. This trend is expected to continue to 2020. 3 In the small and compact SUV segment, the sales volume (unit shipment) ratio of nonpremium to premium market changed from 89:11 in 2012 to 84:16 in 2020, an expected 5% shift toward the premium market. 4 The compact multipurpose vehicle (MPV) segment is expected to launch 5 more models by 2020, creating direct competition to the small and compact SUV segment. 5 The Ford Escape is the current leader in sales volume, followed by the Honda CR-V. They are expected to remain the top 2 models through 2020. The Chevrolet Equinox, Toyota RAV4, and Nissan Rogue are expected to be among the top 5 through 2020. 6 Approximately 90% of the models are designed to fall within the weight band of 4,000 to 5,800 pounds (lbs) gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) and maintain an average length of 173 to 185 inches (in). Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 6
    • New Non-premium Model Introductions Nearly 13 models are expected to be added between 2013 and 2020. The Fiat-Chrysler group, with 11 models, is expected to have the maximum number of models by 2020. Small and Compact SUV Market: Overview Non-premium Models, North America, 2012–2020 OEM Group Ford Toyota GM Brand 2012 2013 Hyundai Hyundai Tucson/ix35 Fiat Chrysler Jeep Compass, Liberty, Patriot, Cherokee Wrangler 2015 2017– 2020 2016 Escape FJ Cruiser, RAV-4 Equinox, Captiva Sport Terrain Mazda Renault-Nissan Ford Toyota Chevrolet GMC Mazda Nissan 2014 Ecosport CX-5 CX-3 Juke, Rogue, Xterra Santa Fe Sport Fiat Dodge Mitsubishi Outlander, Outlander Sport Fuji Heavy Subaru Subcompact Crossover 500X, Patriot Panda L 7 2 1 Forrester, XV-Crosstrek Honda VW BYD BMW Honda VW BYD Mini TOTAL ASX 3 2 CRV Tiguan HR-Z E6 Countryman 21 4 4 Note: The study does not consists of brand Suzuki or vehicles strongly phasing out such as Ntiro, Mariner, Torrent, Element, CX-7, Grand Vitara, and Tribute by 2012. NC7A-18 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 Crossover Mitsubishi TOTAL 3 1 1 2 1 1 1 34 Source: Frost & Sullivan 7
    • New Premium Model Introduction BMW is expected to be the market leader in new premium models introduction, with 4 models, followed by Land Rover, with 3 models. A total of 17 new premium models are expected to be launched by 2020. Small and Compact SUV Market: Overview Premium Models, North America, 2012–2020 Group Brands Toyota Ford Renault Nissan Hyundai 2013 Lexus Lincoln GM 2012 2014 JLR Total 1 1 Infinity EX37 Q30 2 Kia Sportage Niro 2 Cadillac SRX Compact CUV Encore Volvo BMW Tesla Mercedes Porsche Audi Acura Land Rover Range Rover Jaguar TOTAL GTX XC60 X1, X3 GLK-Class 2 Compact CUV Fiat Chrysler Alfa Romeo Hyundai 20172020 2016 LF- NX MKC Buick Geely BMW Tesla Daimler VW 2015 X4 Model X 2 Compact CUV 2 1 4 1 2 1 2 1 X2 GLA-Class Macan Q5 RDX Q3 LR2, Evoque 11 Defender 3 5 2 CX17 5 3 2 1 28 Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 8
    • Ford Escape Chevrolet Equinox Honda CR-V Toyota RAV4 Nissan Rogue Jeep Wrangler Jeep Cherokee Jeep Compact CUV Subaru Forester GMC Terrain Kia Sportage Hyundai Tucson/iX35 Fiat 500X Cadillac SRX Nissan Juke Mazda Kazamai/CX-5 Subaru XV Crossover Honda HR-Z Lincoln Compact CUV Buick Encore Audi Q5 Volkswagen Tiguan Mercedes-Benz GLK class BMW X3 BMW X1 MINI Countryman Buick Compact CUV Lexus NX-Series Mitsubishi Outlander Sport Volvo XC60 Acura RDX Porsche Macan Audi Q3 Alfa Romeo GTX Toyota FJ Cruiser Tesla Model X Alfa Romeo Compact CUV BMW X2 Mitsubishi Outlander BMW X4 Land Rover Range Rover Evoque Mercedes-Benz GLA Infiniti EX-Series/QX50 Land Rover Freelander Jaguar X-Crossover BYD E6 Land Rover Defender Units (‘000) 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 NC7A-18 113.6 95.7 86.5 82.9 63.4 56.6 56.5 55.8 52.9 48.3 44.0 41.6 37.5 35.0 31.6 29.1 27.4 26.6 25.7 24.7 23.9 21.4 20.0 19.2 17.8 17.5 15.2 12.1 12.0 11.8 11.7 10.9 10.8 10.5 10.3 9.1 8.8 7.3 5.2 5.2 4.2 2.8 250.0 210.3 201.3 177.6 160.2 300.0 277.4 Top-selling Small and Compact SUV Models (2020) The top 20 models will account for nearly 80% of unit sales in North America by 2020. Small and Compact SUV Market: Top Models List, North America, 2020 0.0 Small and Compact SUV Models in North America Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012.Source: LMC; Frost & Sullivan 9
    • Production Hot Spots The United States, Japan, and Mexico will be key production hotspots by 2020 for US-bound models. Small and Compact SUV Market: North America Target Models Production Hot Spots, Global, 2012–2020 Canada (4) Toyota RAV4, Hyundai Tucson, GMC Terrain, Chevrolet Eqinox Belgium (1) Volvo XC60 United Kingdom (4) Land Rover Range Rover Evoque/ LR2, Nissan Juke, Hyundai Tucson Germany (3) VW Tiguan, Audi Q5, Mercedes Benz GLK Class Russia (4) VW Tiguan, Mazda CX-5, Chevrolet Captiva Sport, BMW X1 China (2) Audi Q5, Mazda CX-5 Slovakia (1) Kia Sportage United States (10) Nissan Xterra, Hyundai Tucson, Acura RDX, Chevrolet Equinox, Ford Escape, Jeep Wrangler/ Patriot/ Liberty/ Compass, BMW X3 Mexico (6) Honda CR-V, Chevrolet Captiva Sport, Cadillac SRX, BMW X1 Venezuela (1) Jeep Liberty India (1) Mini countryman Vietnam (1) VW Tiguan Japan (9) Nissan Rogue/ Juke, Toyota FJ Cruiser, Infinity EX series, Mitsubishi Outlander/Sport, Mazda CX-5, Subaru XV Crosstrek / Forester Indonesia (1) Kia Sportage Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 10
    • Market Share Analysis (Based on Revenue in $) In 2012, Jeep was the biggest revenue-generating brand, with nearly 13.5% of market share in the small and compact SUV segment, followed by Honda (13.2%) and Chevrolet (12.2%). Small and Compact SUV Market: Percent Revenue Breakdown, North America, 2012 Jeep, 13.5% Others*, 23.4% Honda, 13.2% Cadillac, 4.7% Jeep Honda Chevrolet Ford Toyota Nissan GMC Subaru Hyundai Mazda Volkswagen Kia Mitsubishi MINI Nonpremium Brand ~ Revenue $48.46 B Non- Premium Brand GMC, 5.2% Nissan, 7.7% Toyota, 8.0% Ford, 12.0% • The highest market shares were captured by the Honda CR-V (13.2%) and Ford Escape (12.0%). • The premium brand Cadillac share was 4.7%, making it the top seller in the segment. Note: The market share contains both premium and non-premium brands. Brands Chevrolet, 12.2% Premium Brand ~ Revenue $9.40 B Cadillac BMW Audi Mercedes-Benz Acura Volvo Land Rover Infiniti Premium Brands 8,000 5000 Million 0 *A list of “Other” companies can be found in the appendix. Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 11
    • Product Mix of North American OEMs In the light passenger truck segment, Fiat-Chrysler has the highest mix of small and compact SUV percentage (28%). GM had the highest unit sales (more than 400,000 units) in 2012, with this trend continuing in 2020. Small and Compact SUV Market: North American OEMs Product Mix and Share of Compact SUVs in the Truck Market, North America, 2012 and 2020 2012 Largesize Trucks Compact MPV 2020 Midsize Trucks Compact SUV Largesize Trucks Compact MPV 293 Units (‘000) Units (‘000) 335 788 888 538 266 Midsize Trucks Compact SUV 880 1,106 467 12 355 372 371 72 24 48 411 319 403 261 GM Fiat Chrysler Ford OEMs Tesla GM 141 279 312 Fiat Chrysler Ford OEMs Tesla Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: LMC; Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 12
    • Product Mix for APAC OEMs The Honda group is expected to remain the leader in terms of sales volumes in 2012 and 2020, with 36% of light truck volume in small and compact SUVs by 2020. Small and Compact SUV Market: APAC OEMs Product Mix and Share of Compact SUVs in the Truck Market, North America, 2012 and 2020 2012 Largesize Trucks Compact MPV 65 2020 Midsize Trucks Compact SUV Largesize Trucks Compact MPV Midsize Trucks Compact SUV 78 123 183 216 110 377 200 120 575 8 347 232 701 49 116 282 Units (‘000) Units (‘000) 327 23 122 239 63 84 199 216 85 209 185 Honda Renault Nissan Toyota OEMs Hyundai Fuji Heavy Honda Renault Nissan 124 63 Toyota 113 Hyundai Fuji Heavy OEMs Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: LMC; Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 13
    • Product Mix for APAC OEMs (continued) The Mitsubishi group had the highest product mix of 97% (small and compact SUVs) in 2012 and will be 100% in 2020. BYD will enter the market after 2012. Small and Compact SUV Market: APAC OEMs Product Mix and Share of Compact SUVs in the Light Truck Market, North America, 2012 and 2020 2012 2020 Largesize Trucks Compact MPV Midsize Trucks Compact SUV Largesize Trucks Compact MPV Midsize Trucks Compact SUV 0.5 24 10 36 12 Units (‘000) Units (‘000) 24 15 26 27 17 30 6 4 8 55 44 19 18 22 12 Mazda NC7A-18 Mitsubishi Geely OEMs Tata BYD Mazda Mitsubishi Geely Tata BYD OEMs Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012. Source: LMC; Frost & Sullivan 14
    • Light Truck Product Mix of North American OEMs Fiat-Chrysler has the highest mix of small and compact SUV percentage (28%). General Motors (GM) had the highest unit sales (more than 400,000 units) in 2012, with this trend continuing in 2020. Small and Compact SUV Market: North American Light Truck Product Mix OEMs and Share of Compact SUVs, North America, 2012 and 2020 2012 Largesize Trucks Compact MPV 2020 Midsize Trucks Compact SUV Largesize Trucks Compact MPV Midsize Trucks Compact SUV - 293 788 888 Units (‘000) Units (‘000) 336 538 266 880 1,106 467 12 355 372 371 72 24 141 48 411 319 403 261 GM Fiat Chrysler Ford OEMs Tesla GM 279 312 Fiat Chrysler Ford OEMs Tesla Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012.Source: LMC; Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 15
    • 2012 vs. 2020 Small and Compact SUV Growth The small and compact SUV segment is expected to grow from 2.0 million units in 2012 to 3.2 million units by 2020 (unit sales per annum). Small and Compact SUV Market: Unit Shipment Forecast by OEM (HQ), North America, 2012 and 2020 ~ 3.2 M* 2.0 M 2,000 997 1,800 1,600 1,200 1,000 209 278 800 600 238 400 916 Units (‘000) 186 312 1,400 Units (‘000) Units (‘000) 934 403 113 215 200 124 0 1,090 95 83 44 2020 Year 2012 Year North American OEMs European OEMs APAC OEMs 275 OEMs Largesize Trucks Midsize Trucks Compact MPV Compact SUV North American OEMs European OEMs APAC OEMs * OEMs predict market growth of 2.4 million; however, Frost & Sullivan predicts growth will be 3.2 million in 2020. Note: APAC = Asia-Pacific. Graph in center represents unit shipment data for 2020. All figures are rounded. The base year is 2012.Source: LMC; Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 16
    • Key Findings and Future Outlook Twenty key global OEMs will target more than 62 models in the North American small and compact SUV market by 2020. Parameters 2012 The market size for small and compact SUVs in North America is 2.0 million units per annum. 2020 The market for small and compact SUVs in North America is expected to grow to 3.2 million units per annum. The top 7 OEM groups are expected to account for more than 80% of market share in North America. The top 7 OEM groups are expected to continue to account for nearly 80% of market share in North America. GM, followed by Honda and Fiat-Chrysler group, make up the top 3 participants in the market. GM, followed by Fiat-Chrysler and Honda group, remains among the top 3 participants in the market. Vehicle Models Nearly 18 global OEMs had 32 small and compact SUV models in the North America market. Twenty global OEMs offer more than 62 models in the North American small and compact SUV market. Vehicle Price Vehicle prices are in the range of $15,995 to $58,220. Vehicle prices are expected to be in the same range as in 2012. Technology Infotainment is abundant. Active safety systems and performance enhancing will be abundant. Market Status Competition Vehicle safety is a concern as performance Barriers to enter according to the Insurance Institute for North American Highway Safety (IIHS) testing shows areas of Market improvement. NC7A-18 Vehicle performance is reduced to increase fuel economy. Source: Frost & Sullivan 17
    • Market Engineering Methodology One of Frost & Sullivan’s core deliverables is its Market Engineering studies. They are based on our proprietary Market Engineering Methodology. This approach, developed across the 50 years of experience assessing global markets, applies engineering rigor to the often nebulous art of market forecasting and interpretation. A detailed description of the methodology can be found here. Source: Frost & Sullivan NC7A-18 18