Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
0
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Analysis Of Emerging Opportunities In Myanmar’s Electricity Industry - Subha Krishnan

3,141

Published on

"A Frost & Sullivan Analyst Briefing"

"A Frost & Sullivan Analyst Briefing"

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
3,141
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
163
Comments
0
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Subha Krishnan, Research Analyst Energy & Power 12th July, 2013 Analysis of Emerging Opportunities inAnalysis of Emerging Opportunities in Myanmar’s Electricity IndustryMyanmar’s Electricity Industry © 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan. 12th July, 2013
  • 2. Focus Points • Myanmar’s Electricity Industry: Overview • Structure of Myanmar’s Electricity Industry • Major Challenges & Drivers faced by Myanmar’s Electricity Industry • Myanmar’s Power Development Plan • The Power Generation Market in Myanmar—Centralized Power— Installed Capacity by Fuel Type & Installed Capacity Forecast 2 • The Power Transmission and Distribution Market in Myanmar—Existing & Planned Transmission and Distribution Capacity • Opportunity Assessment—Power Generation and T&D Equipment • Conclusion: Key Takeaways
  • 3. Myanmar’s Electricity Industry – Overview • Myanmar’s installed power capacity, which was 3,321.9 megawatts (MW) in 2012, and is expected to rise to 6,553.9 MW by 2021. Currently, the country has 29 power stations (18 hydropower, 1 coal-fired, and 10 gas-fired stations) that supply electricity nationwide. • A total of 1,376.0 MW from coal-fired power plants, 600.0 MW from gas-fired power plants, and 1,256.0 MW from hydropower plants are expected to be developed between 2013 and 2021. • Myanmar’s electricity demand is estimated to be close to 1,850 MW during the summer 3 • Myanmar’s electricity demand is estimated to be close to 1,850 MW during the summer months, but the hydroelectric power plants that provide close to 70% of the country’s electricity only supply approximately 1,340 MW during the summer due to a lack of water. Therefore, Myanmar requires 500 to 700 MW of standalone power plants in order to meet the electricity shortfall that occurs when demand is at its highest yearly levels. • The lifting of sanctions is expected to create competition among foreign companies for opportunities in Myanmar. • Frequent power outages in the country and the resulting social unrest have forced the government to allow private sector participation in the power generation market.
  • 4. Myanmar’s Electricity Industry – Overview • Though Myanmar has been receptive to foreign investments in several industries, the stakeholders are still sceptical of investing in the power market until clear directions in terms of establishing policies, stabilising the financial and banking sector, and tackling other political issues are articulated. • No major development is expected to happen in the power market until 2015. However, after 2015, the power market is expected to gain traction as policy- related ambiguities are likely to diminish by then. 4 related ambiguities are likely to diminish by then. • Political instability, financial insecurity, and poor existing infrastructure have created a risky market and can hinder new market entry. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  • 5. Myanmar’s Electricity Industry – Overview The Electricity Industry: Organization and Function of the MOEP, Myanmar, 2012 Ministry of Electric Power DHPP DEP DHPI MEPE Hydropower and thermal power project planning Gas turbine (GT), wind, and other projects planning Hydropower and thermal power projects implementation Transmission lines, sub-stations, and generation (GT, wind farm, small hydropower generation) 5 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Power (MOEP) HPGE ESE YESB small hydropower generation) Hydropower station and coal-fired thermal plant generation Electricity distribution Electricity distribution (Yangon City) Key: • DHPP: Department of Hydropower Planning • DEP: Department of Electric Power • DHPI: Department of Hydropower Implementation • MEPE: Myanmar Electric Power Enterprise • HPGE: Hydropower Generation Enterprise • ESE: Electricity Supply Enterprise • YESB: Yangon City Electricity Supply Board
  • 6. Myanmar’s Electricity Industry : Market Drivers & Restraints MarketDrivers 1-3 years 4-6 years Electricity Industry: Key Market Drivers and Restraints, Myanmar, 2013–2021 7-9 years Lifting of sanctions Industrial Development to Increase Demand for Power Low Electrification Ratio Availability of Gas 6 MarketRestraints Impact: High Medium Low Country suffered from weak political framework in the past Less developed banking and financial system Inadequate Transmission and Distribution (T&D) Infrastructure Lack of Skilled Personnel Low Electricity Price
  • 7. Power Development Plan Projects Estimated Capacity (MW) Project Details Target Year of Completion Thermal power projects (coal and gas) 1,700 Slide 36 Slide 37 2021 The Electricity Industry: Estimated Power Development Plan, Myanmar, 2013–2021 • Myanmar does not have a power development plan in place. • The following outlines the installed capacity projects that Frost & Sullivan expects Myanmar to develop between 2013 and 2021: 7 Note: Since most of the planned projects have not started, the above list is based on Frost & Sullivan estimates. Thermal power projects by FDI (coal and gas) 276 Slide 36 2021 Hydropower projects 1,256 Slide 38 2021 Total Planned Projects (MW) 3,232 Note: Hydropower projects with a total installed capacity of 41,276 MW (refer to Annexure 1) have been identified to be developed through FDIs. Frost & Sullivan estimates that only 300 MW are likely to be developed by 2015 and around 2,700 MW are likely to be developed between 2016 and 2021. However, due to a lack of transparency from project developers and investors for current project statuses, these projects are excluded from our forecasts.
  • 8. The Power Generation Market in Myanmar—Centralized Power—Installed Capacity by Fuel Type Electricity Industry: Installed Capacity by Fuel Type, Myanmar, 2012 to 2021 Fuel Type 2012 Installed Capacity (MW) Share (%) Trend (2013–2015) Trend (2016–2018) Trend (2019–2021) Hydro 2,420 72.8 ▲ ▲ ▲ Gas 714.9 21.6 ▲ ▲ ▲ Coal 120 3.6 ▲ ▲ ▲ 8 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Trend Decreasing Stable Increasing ▼ ●● ▲ Coal 120 3.6 ▲ ▲ ▲ Diesel 63 1.9 ●● ●● ●● Bio-mass 4 0.1 ▲ ▲ ●● Total 3,321.9 100.0
  • 9. The Power Generation Market in Myanmar—Centralized Power—Installed Capacity Forecast The Electricity Industry: Installed Capacity Forecast, Myanmar, 2012–2021 CAGR*, 2012–2021: 7.8% 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 InstalledCapacity(MW) 9 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 2012 2013–2015 2016–2018 2019–2021 Installed capacity (MW) 3,321.9 3,766.9 5,393.9 6,553.9 InstalledCapacity(MW)
  • 10. The Power Transmission and Distribution Market in Myanmar—Existing Transmission and Distribution Capacity The Electric Industry: Existing Transmission Lines, Myanmar, 2012* Voltage (kV) Number of Lines Length (km) 230 51 2,983 132 40 2,289 66 137 3,614 Total 228 8,886 10 The Electric Industry: Existing Distribution Lines, Myanmar, 2012* Voltage (kV) Number of Lines Length (km) 33 3,697 6,743 11 3,719 12,781 6.6 1,593 1,435 0.4 - 15,469 Total 9,009 3,6428
  • 11. The Power Transmission and Distribution Market in Myanmar—Planned Transmission and Distribution Capacity Future Transmission Network (2011–2016) • 44 new transmission lines, with total investment requirements estimated at $660 million • 46 new substations, with investment requirements of about $320 million Future Distribution Network (2011–2016) • Between 2012 and 2013, the ESE to expand the 33kV network by 400 kilometers (km), the 11kV by 360 km, and the 6.6KV by 250 km • System improvements to reduce losses and improve the quality of supply 11 Transmission Lines 500kV 230kV 132kV 66kV Numbers 4 41 8 20 Miles 1,295.0 3,873.8 280.6 995.0 Substations 500kV 230kV 132kV 66kV Numbers 8 7 10 11 Million volt-amperes (MVA) 4,000 700 805 170 The Electricity Industry: Future Potential T&D Developments, Myanmar, 2012*
  • 12. Opportunity Assessment—Power Generation and T&D Equipment Equipment Market Stage Growth Trend Application Steam turbines and boilers Growth High Coal-fired power plants Gas turbines Growth Very High Gas-fired power plants for base load and to meet peak demands HRSGs* Growth Moderate Combined-cycle gas-fired power plants Distributed power generation for stand-by and prime power, The Electricity Industry: Equipment Analysis, Myanmar, 2012 12 Generator sets Growth Very high Distributed power generation for stand-by and prime power, and to meet peak demands Gas pipeline Growth Moderate to high Intercity gas distribution network Transformers Growth Very high Needs for MV* group Cables and wires Growth Very high MV and LV* cables Electricity meters Growth High In urban and rural areas Battery Nascent Low For power production from renewable energy sources Power storage Nascent Low For power production from renewable energy source power Solar cell Nascent Low to moderate For rural off-grid power supply
  • 13. Conclusion: Key Takeaways • The MEPE to continue to build gas turbine power plants during the short term to meet high demand for electricity • Pumped-storage power stations to be installed for peak-coverage needs • The MEPE to upgrade T&D lines to reduce transmission losses. • The MEPE to potentially install reactive power compensation devices (capacitor bank, static Var Compensator [SVC]) at grid and zone substations) as part of its Transmission Losses Reduction Program • The MOEP to develop more LV lines to provide power connections to people living in rural areas • The MOEP to repair and maintain existing gas turbine plants for better operation and to enhance plant availability Short-term: 13 availability • In-place power development plan (PDP) to provide a better understanding of the power infrastructure requirements in Myanmar • Government likely to provide clear-cut power development support plans for FDIs to complete construction of the planned hydropower projects • The MOEP to concentrate more on improving the overall electrification rate and on setting targets that can be measured for a given time period • Existing plans and policies to be reviewed and revised, especially to improve overall electrification rate • Likely upgrade of transmission system voltage to 500kV by the MEPE • Myanmar likely to evaluate the feasibility of adopting renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and geothermal resources to generate power • The MOEP likely to announce an energy policy and regulations Medium-term and long-term:
  • 14. Analysis of Emerging Opportunities in Myanmar’s Electricity Industry – Research Service This research service covers the current state and future potential of the electricity industry in Myanmar. It provides an in-depth analysis of industry drivers and restraints as well as their impacts in the forecast period. It provides a detailed analysis of the power generation, and transmission and distribution markets. It also gives an overview of the power development plan in Myanmar and the power consumption market. Peak power demand and supply patterns as well as electricity pricing are also covered in the service. Quantitative Data The Power Generation Market in Myanmar—Centralized Power The Power Generation Market Myanmar—Distributed Power Qualitative Data Executive Summary Myanmar’s Electricity Industry Overview 14 To get aTo get a complimentarycomplimentary executive summary of this research service, emailexecutive summary of this research service, email asiapacific@frost.comasiapacific@frost.com The Power Generation Market Myanmar—Distributed Power (Diesel Generators) and Renewable Energy The Power Consumption Market in Myanmar Peak Power Supply and Demand in Myanmar The Power Transmission and Distribution Market in Myanmar Power Generation and T&D Market Opportunities Assessment Electricity Pricing Industry Drivers and Restraints Company Profiles Conclusion—Key Takeaways
  • 15. Your Feedback is Important to Us Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? 15 Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by “Rating” this presentation.
  • 16. Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 16 http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan
  • 17. Today’s Presenter Subha Krishnan is a Research Analyst with the Asia Pacific Energy & Power Systems group and is involved in syndicated research and custom consulting assignments. Her specific focus is on renewable and non-renewable energy sector of the business. She has authored several syndicated research studies on stationary generators sets, marine generator sets, renewable energy markets, solar power market, steam and gas turbines market, and portable power market. She has worked on consulting projects to identify the market opportunities and key research areas globally for Petroleum and Geothermal Research (PGR) portfolio, Nuclear Energy developments, Concentrated Solar Power Technology, and Malaysian EPC market. 17 For any other enquiries, email us: asiapacific@frost.com Concentrated Solar Power Technology, and Malaysian EPC market. She has been quoted by leading media such as Pennwell Power Engineering International Magazine, Solar Business Focus Magazine, Zimbio, Engerati's Oceania Regional Roundup (Australia), New Statesman, Fierce Energy, Gas to Power Journal, and PowerGrid International, to name a few. Subha Krishnan Research Analyst Energy & Power Systems Asia Pacific – Frost & Sullivan Masters in Business Administration, Bachelor of Commerce

×