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New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom
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New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of the United Kingdom

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Short Description:

Team Lead and Senior Research Analyst Archana Vidyasekar completed extensive analysis on Mega Trends in the United Kingdom. The research expert led a short teleconference about new findings that affect the market, followed by a live question-and-answer session.

You Will Discover:

In the future, 81 percent of the UK will be living in urban areas, there will be 200 million connected devices, and one in four British citizens will be shopping online – the highest number in the world, per capita. The country’s South East region will grow to become the second-largest region after London, accounting for 15.3 percent of total GDP. This is what the UK will look like in 2025, according to an exclusive analysis by Frost & Sullivan. This briefing will detail and analyze 12 New Mega Trends that will drive growth and innovation in the UK.

This webinar will:

- Identify implications of 12 key Mega Trends on the UK economy and future
- Understand the implications of connectivity and convergence as a Mega Trend catalyzing UK's digital economic growth
- Spot new business models and opportunities created by the Mega Trends in emerging spaces such as retail, logistics, and aerospace and defense

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  • Mega Trends are these all-encompassing macro trends that have multiple implications to businesses, industries and personal livesThey are macro because they are cross-industry which means they can affect multiple industries, transformative as they evolve with changing dynamics, and global in their influence suggesting a much larger and far reaching impact than any other macro-economic trendWe at Frost and Sullivan, have identified 11 such Mega Trends that have been listed on the right some of which we will be exploring today for the UK panorama
  • By 2025, online retail will reach $4.3 trillion accounting for nearly 20% of total retail Drivers for Online retail:Proliferation of connected devices (80 billion connected devices - 2025)High internet and PC penetration (Over 65% internet penetration - 2020)Convenience of online product research, comparison shopping and competitive pricingGrowing influence of social media and increase in social media users - many retailers are using it as a potent tool to get marketing and sales leverageAvailability of new innovative purchasing options – group buying, mobile apps, subscription commerce etcProvision of convenient home delivery and collection options – same-day, click n collectWhile China’s combined B2C and C2C market size is already the largest in the world, USA will continue to lead the traditional online retail B2C market in 2025. China, however, will catch with USA by 2030Germany and Japan are also seeing thriving online retail industries - higher online retail growth than traditional retail
  • UK to see highest online retail penetration of over 25% of total sales owing to large internet and PC penetration (over 80% internet penetration by 2020) coupled with convenient home delivery options Most omnichannel retailers in the UK have report high online retail salesJohn Lewis, for example, saw a 41 per cent increase in online sales to £959 million in 2012 which accounted for a quarter of its tradeTesco, one of the largest supermarket reportedonline sales of £3bn in FY2012 in the UK, accounting for 6% of its sales in the UKPure play online retailers such as Amazon have also seen rapid growth in UK. Amazon, which launched in the UK in 1998, is the UK's most popular retail website, with more visitors than Argos, Next and Tesco. Amazon has amassed revenues of over £30 billion since its launch. (last year (FY2011) it recorded revenues of £3.3 billion in the UK)The B2B market is also seeing rapid growth in the UK. The UK, in fact, is one of the largest B2B marketplaces in Europe accounting for nearly 20% of the regions B2B ecommerce sales in 2010. e-procurement, brokering and information sites are some of the most popular B2B categories in the UK.
  • In the future, we expect retail to continue down this evolution path adopting emerging bricks and clicks business models such as virtual stores, interactive kiosks and online hypermarkets more aggressivelyVirtual stores, for example, are simulated brick and mortar stores that offer interactive shopping in public places. This increasing interest in online retail and digital strategies has also helped many companies become online hypermarkets offering a wide range of products on their online stores.. A decade back only Amazon or ebay could be referred to as online hypermarkets. But now, retailers such as Tesco and John Lewis with large product portfolio’s have started to match Amazon’s online prowess – Tesco’s sales of 3.3 billion is almost catching up with the 4 billion online sales Amazon has in the UK
  • The transition from big-box to many small-boxes will increase the demand for multiple deliveries as the number of outlets increase. Small boxes will also demand for more frequent deliveries owing to smaller shelf sizes and the consequent need for constant replenishmentConsolidation, bundling, routing and scheduling will become increasingly important in this context. Consequently, we will see more distribution points than distribution centresAs demand for next day deliveries and speedier options increase there will be a "modalshift" from trucks and short-/mid-range aircraft to the high-speed trains wherever appropriate and where it can be tailored to suit the logistics chains, with priority given to Express freight in order to guarantee next-day delivery. Now the trials are mainly between countries, but there are high speed train plans being proposed connecting continents. Now, when this materialises, we may well be looking at a future where goods will be shipped within a day between continentsUK has the potential to become ecommerce hub of the world with one of the highest online spending per capita in the world, some of the best online businesses and some of the best online talent. Regulatory benefits can catalyse an exodus of eCommerce businesses to UK.The UK's retail laws are already one of the most relaxed policies in Europe. For example, a German online business has restrictions placed on the kind of promotional offers they can provide which its UK rivals are not subjected to. This has given UK businesses a clear competitive advantage. Although, UK is leading in most online industries, it is being closely followed by Germany, France and the Nordic countries. We can expect some of these countries in the future to follow UK’s path and emulate its success by relaxing their regulations and building better 3G/4G infrastructure in their regions.
  • As per UN 60% of the world’s population will live in cites by 2030. We in F&S actually believe that UN underestimates the growth in urbanisation in regions like Asia, Africa and Latin America. We believe that the world will achieve this figure by 2025. We have four concepts of urbanization: Mega City, Mega Region Mega Corridor, and Mega SlumMega City - City with a minimum population of 8 million and a GDP of $250 billion in 2025 (12 Mega Cities in 2011 and 35 Mega Cities in 2025) Example: Shanghai (28.4 million population), Beijing (22.6 million population) in 2025. Mega Region: - Cities combining with suburbs to form regions (Population over 15 million) (21 Mega Regions in 2025) Example: Shanghai Region (67.9 million population in 2025)Mega Corridors: The corridors connecting two major cities or Mega Regions (60 km or more apart, and with a combined population of 25 million or more) (21 Mega Corridors in 2025) Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou Mega Corridor (39 million population in 2025)Mega Slums: 1 million urban poor live in an area measuring just 1.5 square miles
  • The UK will follow the global pattern of cities – not countries – driving wealth creation in the future. As mentioned, around 81 percent of the total population in UK will live in urban centres. London accounted for 20 percent of UK’s GDP in 2011 and could contribute about 25 percent in 2020. The country’s South East region will grow to become the second largest region after London, accounting for 15.3 percent of total GDP. This rapid rate of urbanization will compel companies to target cities as their growth markets, with most UK cities also expected to become the micro manufacturing hubs or digital hubs of the country by 2025. Urbanization will also influence companies to become more rational and optimal in their operations, creating a new ‘smarter’ UK.
  • UK has already demonstrated its efforts in the focusing on cities as growth hubs with the creation of a new ministry role of minister for cities. The government has appointed Greg Clark as minister for cities whose role will be to consider the impact of policy on England's largest urban areas. This initiative has already produced interesting strategies such as the City Deals which gives England’s cities new powers and freedoms in managing their urban centersThe government has also revealed plans to provide super fast broadband access to 14 cities in the UK to create super-connected cities in an effort to attract new businesses of the digital ageInterestingly enough, they have also encouraged forming of public-private consortiums for smart cities which will look at creating commercial opportunities in smart solutions for urban centers
  • There are many Social Trends in the UK that could potentially become a huge Mega Trend for the country. For example, one out of five people in the UK will be aged over 65 by 2020. The 65+ group is expected to contribute £77 billion to the British economy by 2030 (from £42 billion in 2011), with spending power to increase to £130 billion in 2030 (£78 billion in 2011). Future opportunities from this trend includes new services and solutions in Healthcare, and neighbourhoods for aging citizens with new technologies such as robotic care for the elderly.
  • One out of five people in the UK will be aged over 65 by 2020. The 65+ group is expected to contribute £77 billion to the British economy by 2030 (from £42 billion in 2011), with spending power to increase to £130 billion in 2030 (£78 billion in 2011). Future opportunities from this trend includes new services and solutions in Healthcare, and neighbourhoods for aging citizens with new technologies such as robotic care for the elderly.
  • One of the most interesting and important Mega Trends in the UK will be Connectivity and Convergence. The UK will have 200 million connected devices (six for every household) by 2020 which means that the country is on the path to becoming a digital economy with new business models and digital innovation hubsThe connected digital economy will facilitate innovation in the economy as businesses and researchers collaborate to address complex challenges and catapult new and sustainable ways of living that will coordinate and create better linkages across the country in mobility, energy, and delivery of public servicesOne of the major industries that has benefited from the proliferation of digital devices in the UK is retail. Over 30% of online sales will be enabled through mobile devices by 2020 as UK retailers make more digital and mobile touch points seamlessly accessible to their customers. The measurable size of the United Kindgom's Internet economy in 2010 was over £100 billion which is roughly 8% of GDP and is growing at 10% a year. This share is larger than that of the country's construction, transportation or utlilties industry.By 2016, the internet is forecast to grow to 12.4% in the UK, contributing some £225bn to the overall UK economy.
  • The UK is fast becoming a worldwide destination for hi-tech, high-skilled advanced manufacturing - and the UK space and satellite industry, with its strong order books for the next five years, is a sterling example of this. In fact, A UK satellite manufacturer has won more than £200million worth of work on Europe's global navigation satellite system. The Government hailed the contract, announced by the European Commission, as a boost for the British space industry and for Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd (SSTL)Satellite manufacturing in the UK is worth £800 million, around 14% of the UK’s Space sector. Many of these manufacturing capabilities are world-class. For example, Astrium, a pan-European satellite manufacturer, builds one-quarter of the world’s telecommunications satellites and chooses to manufacture the entire payload and mechanical systems for these in its UK sites, together worth 50% of the value of the satellite. Surrey Satellites has developed an enviable reputation as one of the world’s best small satellite manufacturers, integrating commercial off-the-shelf components to supply complete small satellites to a growing commercial and institutional market for affordable Space capability. UK companies are also developing disruptive manufacturing technologies, for example, Reaction Engines Ltd is developing propulsion technology for next generation ‘single stage to orbit’ Spaceplanes. There is also the potential to link across manufacturing sectors where UK is particularly strong, such as autonomous systems, advanced robotics, encryption and power systemsLooking ahead, the space industry is forecast to grow on average by about 5% a year until 2020. (gaurdian)
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  • The South East is the second largest economic contributor among the regions of England and countries of the UK. Its local authorities have some of the highest levels of productivity after London. Productivity, as measured by GVA per hour worked, was 8 per cent above the UK average in 2010. Outside of London, Berkshire and Surrey had the highest productivity in 2009 with levels of 20 per cent or more above the UK average. The employment rate for the region’s residents was 74.2 per cent in Q4 2011 compared with the UK average of 70.3 per cent. Gross disposable household income (GDHI) of South East residents was also the second highest, after London, at £17,600 per head. There was a wide range within the region, with GDHI lowest in Portsmouth at £12,170 per head, compared with £21,500 in Surrey. The South East generated the second largest contribution to the UK’s GVA for the information and communication sector at 22 per cent in 2009. Wholesale and retail trade and repair of motor vehicles activities accounted for 17 per cent of the UK total from this sector, also larger than the region’s share of total GVA (15 per cent)Other regions such as Scotland are also growing their economy, enough to create a business case for an independent Scotland PLC. Scotland contributes 9.9% of UK revenues, but only receives 9.3% of UK spending (2011-12 GERS report). This equates to Scotland’s finances as an independent nation being more than £800 per person comparatively better off, than the UK average. Scotland enjoys a GDP per head around 17% higher than the UK average, and even if Oil and Gas are completely excluded Scotland’s GDP per head is on a par with the rest of the UK.
  • This slide depicts the connectivity that is evolving between different modes of transport in view of offering customer integrated door-to-door travel solutions. In fact through this convergence we believe in the development of a “Mobility Integrator”, one that will provide a door-to-door, end-to-end mobility solution to customers combining modes, communication, payment, etc. Definition of a Mobility Integrator“As a futuristically driven market player, a Mobility Integrator is defined as an entity in the value chain which assists in providing or provides the right combination of various modes of transport available to get a person from Point A to Point B in the most cost-effective and time-saving manner in-line with the customer expectations and willingness by leveraging technological expertise, operational excellence and innovative business propositions.”The 4 key elements which encourage the emergence of a mobility integrator are:Time and Cost Savings: Consumers are always looking at the best fares to travel to their destination in the least possible time and increased comfort.Multiple modes of transport offered: With a number of travel options available (including innovative new business models like car sharing, bike sharing), the dilemma of consumers to be confined to a single mode is reduced and the flexibility to choose the best combination to reach their destination is a upon the consumers needs. Single ticket travel: While booking, planning and handling tickets of different modes of transport can be cumbersome, MIs offer a One Stop Shop Solution.Technology Integration: Advances in technology have made it possible for consumer to travel without pre defined travel plans and also to terminate a travel at their destination of choice. Who will be the “mobility integrator” of the future? Various players are already and can expect to move in this direction : Transport operator (DB), IT Giants (Google or Amazon), Travel Operator (Expedia) and Vehicles ManufacturersEg : BMW through its fund is investing into this ecosystem and strategically position itself across the new mobility ecosystem being developed (not necessary) and you have players like PSAOther Notes To date the mobility ecosystem has developed in silos based on the various modes of transport available, with little to no integration Congestion, technology availability and need to optimise existing infrastructure is driving that integration to take place between modes, but also all activities surrounding mobility from parking to hospitality and infotainment on the go.
  • Transcript

    • 1. New Mega Trends Shaping the Future of Great Britain
    • 2. Today’s Presenter 2 Archana Vidyasekar Team Lead and Senior Research Analyst, Visionary Innovation Research Group, Frost & Sullivan • Over 6 years of consulting experience • Managing and overseeing research on Global Mega Trends at Frost & Sullivan • Domain expertise in healthcare, logistics, and ICT • Published articles and quoted in reputed journals and mainstream media
    • 3. Agenda Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future Influencing the UK Economy Spot new business models and white space opportunities Macro to Micro : How To Apply Mega Trends Within Your Organisation to Develop Growth Strategies Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends 3
    • 4. What is a Mega Trend? What is a Mega Trend? Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies, economies, cultures and personal lives. Urbanization – City as a Customer Smart is the New Green Social Trends Connectivity and Convergence Bricks and Clicks Innovating to Zero New Business Models: Value for Many Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers Future Infrastructure Development Health, Wellness and Well Being Future of Mobility 4 Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division
    • 5. Mega Trend 1: Bricks and Clicks 5
    • 6. Future of Clicks in Retail Industry Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting for 19% of Total Retail 6 1.320 1.300 0.210 0.170 0.0900.000 0.200 0.400 0.600 0.800 1.000 1.200 1.400 United States China United Kingdom Japan Germany OnlineRetailSales($trillion) $11.800 trillion $23.000 trillion $0.550 trillion $11.250 trillion $4.300 trillion $18.700 trillion 24% 18% 27% 10% 15% 5% 19% Online Sales Non-Online Sales % share of online in total retail 1 2 3 4 5 2011 2025
    • 7. UK Retail – Online Vs. Non Online Online Retail Sales to Account for nearly 1/3rd of Total Retail Sales by 2025 7 Online Retail Market: Online Vs. Offline Retail Sales, United Kingdom, 2011-2025 77.00 116.00 152.00 210.00 473.00 479.34 492.41 570.00 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.00 900.00 2011 2015 2020 2025 RetailRevenue($Billions) Online Sales Offline Sales $550.00 $595.00 $644.00 $780.00 Total Retail Sales ($ Billion) Source: Office for National Statistics, IMRG, and Frost & Sullivan Analysis 14.0% 86.0% 19.0% 81.0% 24.0% 76.0% 27.0% 74.0% % of total
    • 8. UK’s Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel Model to an Integrated Cross Channel Model Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis Department Stores Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile Payments Mobile Apps Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2000) Interactive StoresVirtual Stores Hyper Online Markets The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond) 8
    • 9. Macro to Micro Example Increase in On-line Retailing is ushering new urban logistics business models 9 Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. New Strategies for Urban Logistics (Special Delivery Options Such as Same-Day Outsourced) Same-Day Night Time Robotic Warehouses Stores as DCs Locker Boxes Urban Consolidation Centres High-speed Logistics E-Commerce Hubs Opportunities for UK Click and Collect Image Source: iStockphoto and Dreamstime
    • 10. Mega Trend 2: Urbanisation - “City as a Customer” 10
    • 11. Mega Cities Mega Regions Mega Corridor 11 Smart and Sustainable Cities
    • 12. Future Mega Cities, Mega Regions, and Mega Corridors of UK By 2025, UK could see 1 Mega City, 1 Mega Region and 1 Smart City; Around 81.0% (55.2 million) of the Total Population in UK will Live in Urban Regions 12 Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2012). World Urbanization Prospects: The 2011 Revision and Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2012 Manchester Population 2025: 2.5 million Leeds Population 2025: 2.6 million London Population 2025: 10.3 million GDP 2025: $986.60 billion Emerging Corridor in 2025 Mega Cities in 2025 Emerging Mega Cities (More than 1.0 million population in 2025) Smart City in 2025 HSR Phase-I : London to Birmingham (2016-2026) HSR Phase-II: Manchester and Leeds (2032-2033) London-Leeds-Manchester- Liverpool-Birmingham Corridor 18.5 million Edinburgh – Glasgow Corridor 7.1 million Edinburgh Glasgow Liverpool Population 2025: 1.9 million Birmingham Population 2025: 1.2 million London-Sevenoaks- Woking-Slough-Basilton- Brentwood-Harlow 13.2 million Emerging Mega Region in 2025
    • 13. Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%. London to account for 30% of UK’s GDP by 2030 Cities get a push from UK government… • Ministry of Cities • Super Broadband Access • Smart City Consortium 13
    • 14. Mega Trend 3: Smart is the New Green 14
    • 15. 15
    • 16. Smart cities To Create Huge Business Opportunities With A Market Value Of $1.5 Trillion By 2020 Europe Accounts for 1/4th of Key Market Segments such as Smart Energy and Buildings. 36.8% 23.4% 11.4% 10.5% 10.4% 7.4% 1 2 3 4 5 Smart Governance (e- governance, smart education, and smart security) CAGR: 11.9% (2012-2020) Smart Energy CAGR: 19.6% (2012-2020) Smart Infrastructure* CAGR: 8.9% (2012-2020) Smart Transportation CAGR: 14.8% (2012-2020) Smart Healthcare CAGR: 6.9% (2012-2020) Smart Building CAGR: 8.8% (2012-2020) 6 Smart City Market by Segments,1 Global, 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Note: The graph represent the market share of each segment in the smart city market. For more information on smart city market sectors please refer to appendix Smart City Market *Other Smart Infrastructure such as sensor networks, digital management of water utilities not included in other segments 1These numbers represent the entire smart solutions eco-system in each segment for both urban and non-urban panoramas with the exception of smart security, smart transportation, and smart healthcare.
    • 17. Mega Trend 4: Social Trends 17
    • 18. Generational Political Shift Surge in Asian Work Pool 18 Halal Economy
    • 19. 19 Aging Population (aged over 65), UK, 2010 and 2020 2010 2020 16.6% 19.4% • By 2020, 1 out of every 5 people will be age 65 or older. • In 2011, those age 65 and older contributed $66 billion in consumer spending to the UK economy; in 2030, this will rise to $121 billion. • Their purchasing power will increase from $122 billion in 2011 to $204 billion in 2030. • In terms of asset holdings, those age 65 and older will hold nearly 50% of the UK’s total liquid assets (cash) by 2020. Source: ONS.gov.uk; HM Revenue; AgeUK.com; igd.com; Frost & Sullivan Aging Population In the United Kingdom
    • 20. Robots Priced Between £1.5k to £5k Could Enter our Personal Lives by 2020 Robotic for Elderly Care: Assisted Living Robots as Teaching Assistants Nanobots Used for Targeted Drug Delivery Robotic in Healthcare eg. Non Invasive Surgeries Done by Robotic Arms Robot Window Cleaner Robots at Home
    • 21. Mega Trend 5: Connectivity & Convergence 21
    • 22. 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020 80 Billion Connected Devices Globally By 2020 Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 22
    • 23. Connected UK – A Digital Economy 23 6 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 Average of 4-5 Connected per individual above the age of 16 by 2020 62.0 million internet users in the UK by 2020 93.0 million smart phone users and 75.0 million 3G users by 2020 30.0 million tablet users by 2020 17.0 million smart TV owners by 2020 Source: Ofcom, Pyramid Research, SNL Kagan research Connected Devices Creating New Opportunities… Mobile Banking Mobile Commerce Social Media Over 35.0% of smartphone owners will use mobile banking services in the UK 2020 Over 30.0% of online sales will be made through mobile phones by 2020 100.0% of UK’s internet users will actively rely on social media for communication Image Source:: Dreamstime.
    • 24. 559 225 107 102 220 365 129 73 71 327 R&D Reconnaissance Navigation Earth Observaion Communication 136 59 218 354 161 164 31 89 Heavy 5,400kg+ Large 4,200- 5,400 kg Medium 2,500-4,200 kg Small 500- 2,500 kg Micro 100- 500 kg Mini 10-100 kg Pico 0.1-1 kg Nano 1-10 kg Space Jam : There will be 1,213 Satellites Launched, Cumulatively, Globally by 2021. UK positioning itself to lead in Small satellite manufacturing 1,213 965 2011* 2021* Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis *Note: The numbers refer to accumulated number of satellites to be launched in the period 2012 to 2021 cumulatively
    • 25. 25 Business case for faster speed – 4G/5G £2 in every £5 spent online in UK will be through a mobile device in 2020 Unlocking Mobile Commerce Potential High Digital Revenue per Citizen ICT Business Incubators - Hubs / Technopolises New revenue streams for treasury through EGovernance. Digital City Infrastructure Revenue Mobile data increased by 16.8% to reach £2.4bn in 2012 $2 of every $5 spent online to be through a mobile device by 2020. Highest digital revenues per capita in Europe at £3.1 per UK citizen 12% of UK GDP from ICT businesses Over 20% increase in tax collected through eTax filling platforms Smart City Market to be Worth £970 billion by 2020 Macro-to-micro Implications of Connectivity Trends Source: Ofcom, Frost & Sullivan, 2012
    • 26. Mega Trend 7: New Business Models: Value for Many 26
    • 27. New Business Models Personalization and Customization Personalization & Customization Nike Quirky .com Co-Creation One-off Experience Service as a Business Model Location Based Services (red letter Days) Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 27
    • 28. Free Premium Freemium + = Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 28 Potential for over 15 million car sharing members in Europe alone by 2020 Pinterest attracts over 70 million users – Tesco, ASOS among leading UK retailers merchandising through the site
    • 29. Mega Trend 8: Economic Trends 29
    • 30. Internal Economic Growth Hubs: Top Economic Regions in UK in 2025 South East Region could grow to become the second largest region of UK accounting for 15.3% of the country’s total GDP ($ 562.66 billion) 30 Scotland $194.50 billion (2011) $286.85 billion (2025) Yorkshire and The Humber $170.19 billion (2011) $239.04billion (2025) Greater London $507.40 billion (2011) $986.60 billion (2025) East of England $218.81billion (2011) $316.27 billion (2025) South East $364.69 billion (2011) $562.66 billion (2025) North East $72.93 billion (2011) $77.20 billion (2025) East Midlands $145.87 billion (2011) $202.26 billion (2025) 1 2 4 6 8 9 South West $194.50 billion (2011) $279.49 billion (2025) Wales $85.09 billion (2011) $102.97 billion (2025) West Midland $170.19 billion (2011) $224.33 billion (2025) North West $243.13billion (2011) $342.01 billion (2025) Northern Ireland $ 63.21 billion (2011) $77.22 billion (2025) 3 5 7 Source: Eurostat, and Frost & Sullivan analysis, 2012
    • 31. Mega Trend 9: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing 31
    • 32. Mood Stress levels Mental health Sense of optimism Attitude Security Safety Personal values Personal fulfilment Self image / self actualisation Sight / vision Touch & feel Smell / breathing Sound Temperature Wellness The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 32
    • 33. Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing United Kingdom expected to be the three top markets when it comes to technology adoption in Telehealth and EMR 33 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
    • 34. Mega Trend 10: Future Of Mobility 3434
    • 35. Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side Known Solutions Met Needs Unmet Needs Unknown Solutions Technology Innovation Traffic Prediction system Parking Search assistance Cashless Payment Improvement Micro cars Electric Cars Electric Bikes Application Innovation Car Sharing Car Pooling Bike Sharing Wild Innovation Mobility Integration New Mobility Products Motorized Mover Two seated Electric Car 35
    • 36. The Future of Mobility Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms City Suburbs IntercityTRAVELDISTANCE TRAVEL DISTANCEDestination Public Transportation Private Cars Shared Mobility Micro-mobility Intercity Bus Intercity Train Shared Mobility Door to door integrated, multi-mobility a reality in future Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity. Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators” 36 Source: Frost & Sullivan
    • 37. Is the Future of Mobility James Bond................. 37
    • 38. ...............................or Jason Bourne! 38
    • 39. So what will the future look like in 2025 to a UK citizen 39 1. We will start witnessing robots in our homes 2. Digital Assistants will guide our everyday lives (even in our cars) 3. Cars to have many autonomous functions which will provide advanced driver assistance functions 4. You will most likely live in a British city which wants to be Smart or Sustainable 5. We will have multiple devices monitoring our well being and wonder and designer drugs will be common place (but not paid by NHS) 6. UK’s Centre of Economic Gravity could shift from Financial Services to Technology as UK’s Digital Economy Grows to account for a fifth of its GDP by 2025
    • 40. Macro Micro From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your business and markets Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a wide ranging impact Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts Impact on Future Product/ Technology Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs To 40
    • 41. Learn More About “New Mega Trends” Upcoming Book: New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=5774 23 Join Our Mega Trend Group On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research 41
    • 42. Contact Information Sarwant Singh Partner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation (+44) 2079157843 sarwant.singh@frost.com Archana Amarnath Program Manager, Visionary Innovation Research Group (+44) 2079157893 aamarnath@frost.com 42 Archana Devi Vidyasekar Senior Research Analyst, Visionary Innovation Research Group (+91) 4466814216 ArchanaV@frost.com

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