New Mega TrendsMacro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives           Phil Howarth, Partner
Agenda•    Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends•    Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future       1.   Urbanis...
Definition of a Mega Trend                                          Impact of Mega Trends on Key    What is a Mega Trend? ...
What were the Top Mega Trends in 2000?         • China as an Emerging Super Power         • Internet Retail and E-Commerce...
Mega Trend 1:Urbanisation - “City  as a Customer”
MegaMega Cities      Regions     Mega  Corridor    Mega Slums
Cities, and Not Countries,Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future Cities like Seoul, Budapest and Bogota  account for 50...
From Cities Designed around Cars, Cars Are Designed around MegaCities - BMW i3 and i8 Megacity Vehicles     Autonomous Par...
Urbanisation in Africa         Luanda & Dar Es Salaam         • 2020, Luanda is expected to grow from                     ...
African Cities will increase by 25% by 2025; at an average growth rate of 3.4%,1.2 billion people, 60% of Africa’s populat...
Siemens Focuses on “City as the Customer”                                      Post-October 2011Pre- October 2011Siemens’ ...
Mega Trend 2:Smart is the New    Green
Convergence of Technology Will Lead to                  Convergence of Competition                                        ...
Mega Trend 3:Social Trends
Surge in                                                   Asian Work                                                     ...
Global Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion PopulationBetween 15-34 Years - Around 61% from Asia Alone                 ...
Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interestand Lifestyle    Personalization and         Techno S...
Mega Trend 4:Economic Trends
The Next Game Changers in 2025                                                                                            ...
The African Game Changers – Economic Diversification                                                       Country Compari...
Mega Trend 5:Connectivity & Convergence
80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 connected devices for every user b...
SPACE JAM: New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to BeLaunched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innov...
Africa will experience a 530% increase in international bandwidth through   undersea fibre cables by 2020  Five new satell...
Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal MobilityVirtual Shopping Al...
Mega Trend 6:Innovating to Zero
Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020                     Zero Defects                 Carbon Neutral                ...
Innovating to Zero Strategy Examples
Mega Trend 7:Health, Wellness and     Wellbeing
The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being         ...
Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
Key Strategic Conclusions1. Mega Trends impact multiple industries. Examine them carefully to optimally develop   medium a...
Three Phased Approach To Identify Emerging Opportunities:    Robust Methodology to Evaluate Top Mega Trends               ...
Contact UsPhil HowarthPartnerAfrica & Latin America     (+27) 21 680 3269     phil.howarth@frost.comSarwant Singh         ...
New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth
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New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

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New Mega Trends: Africa Awards Banquet 2012 by Phil Howarth

  1. 1. New Mega TrendsMacro to Micro Opportunities on Future Business, Cultures and Personal Lives Phil Howarth, Partner
  2. 2. Agenda• Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends• Presentation of Top Mega Trends of the Future 1. Urbanisation : Mega Cities, Mega Regions, Mega Corridors 2. “Smart” is the New Green 3. Social Trends: Generation Y 4. Beyond “The BRICS” 5. Connectivity and Convergence 6. Innovating to Zero ! 7. Health, Wellness and Wellbeing• Key Strategic Conclusions
  3. 3. Definition of a Mega Trend Impact of Mega Trends on Key What is a Mega Trend? Organisational Functions Marketing and Strategy Mega Trends are global, sustained Innovation R&D Budget and macro economic forces of Scouting Spending development that impact business, economy, society, cultures and personal lives thereby defining ourfuture world and its increasing pace of change Technology Competitive Planning Benchmarking Product Planning and Development
  4. 4. What were the Top Mega Trends in 2000? • China as an Emerging Super Power • Internet Retail and E-Commerce • From Industrial to Information Society • Outsourcing as a Business Model
  5. 5. Mega Trend 1:Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”
  6. 6. MegaMega Cities Regions Mega Corridor Mega Slums
  7. 7. Cities, and Not Countries,Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future Cities like Seoul, Budapest and Bogota account for 50% of the country’s GDP; Gauteng will account for roughly 40% of South Africa’s GDP by 2020 What are the Micro Implications?  New Products and Solutions  High Economic Power  Hub and Spoke Business Model  Transit oriented development  New Mobility Solutions  City as a Customer
  8. 8. From Cities Designed around Cars, Cars Are Designed around MegaCities - BMW i3 and i8 Megacity Vehicles Autonomous Parking BMW i3 Electric City Car Assistance Voice Recognition Traffic Jam Assistance Range Assist BMW i8 Plug In Hybrid Sports Car Pro-active Collision Warning Panoramic Roof Pure Electric, Zero Emission Rapid Charging Plug In Hybrid, 1.5L 3 Cylinder Gasoline, 66 g/km Carbon Fibre Reinforced Plastic Aluminium Chassis Smartphone App based remote vehicle Opening up iDrive API to third Investment in app companies that management (in-house app development) party app developers provide mobility related appsMultimodal Transport & EV related app – includes dynamic intermodal transport planning
  9. 9. Urbanisation in Africa Luanda & Dar Es Salaam • 2020, Luanda is expected to grow from Cairo 4.7 million in 2010 to over 8 million by 2025 forming a mega-city of high population density and commercial activity 16.3 Million People Ouagadougou Abidjan Lagos and Eko Atlantic City Region • Lagos’s Eko Atlantic City will merge with Accra the city of Lagos to form a future business Lagos+Eko gateway to Africa – a Atlantic City mega-region of over 16 million Luanda Abidjan – Accra – Lagos & North South Corridors • Transport routes across the region will be expanded and integrated to create corridors for trade and inter- -continental co-operation by linking mega-cities Cape Town
  10. 10. African Cities will increase by 25% by 2025; at an average growth rate of 3.4%,1.2 billion people, 60% of Africa’s population, will be urbanised by 2050 Growth of African Cities Algiers % increase, 2010- 2025 forecast 3.6 million AlexandriaDar es Salaam Casablanca 5.6 million Nairobi 4.1 million Kinshasa Luanda Addis Ababa Addis Ababa Abidjan Dakar 4.7 million Dakar 4.3 million Lagos Abidjan Ibadan 6.3million Ibadan Nairobi Accra Accra 3.2 million 6.2 million Douala 3.5 million Douala 3.1 million Alexandria Algiers Luanda Dar es Salaam 8 million 6.2 million Casablanca Cairo DurbanJohannesburg Cape Town Cape Town 3.8 million Durban 0 20 40 60 80 100 3.2 million Migration Mega City population, 2025 Urban Population, 2025 Data Source: Africa Progress Report, 2010
  11. 11. Siemens Focuses on “City as the Customer” Post-October 2011Pre- October 2011Siemens’ Sectors Integrated Competencies into One Division “City as the Customer” Energy Building Technologies Healthcare Smart Grid Infrastructure Rail Systems & Cities Industry OSRAM Mobility & Logistics Low & Medium Voltage
  12. 12. Mega Trend 2:Smart is the New Green
  13. 13. Convergence of Technology Will Lead to Convergence of Competition IT Players SAP HP ST ElectronicsPoint of Convergence Oracle Microsoft Google Cisco Alcatel- Verizon Lucent IBM Senergy Energy/Infrastructure Telecom Players O2 Players Deutsche Eaton Telekom Schneider Siemens Electric General Electric Emerson ABB Honeywell Johnson Controls Rockwell Automation Note: This is an illustration and does not show all market players Automation/Building Control Players
  14. 14. Mega Trend 3:Social Trends
  15. 15. Surge in Asian Work Pool Geo Gen YSocialization Middle Generational Bulge Political Shift “She- conomy” Ageing Reverse Population Brain Drain
  16. 16. Global Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion PopulationBetween 15-34 Years - Around 61% from Asia Alone World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020 2010 2 2020 1.8 Around 37% of 15-34 7.55 Billion Population Will Live in 6.83 Billion 1.6 India and China Alone in 1.2 0.47 2020 0.53 1.4 0.16 0.09 Population in Billion 1.2 2.1 0.19 2.25 0.07 1 0.47 0.57 0.33 0.8 0.63 0.22 2.56 2.24 0.6 0.12 0.37 0.23 0.44 0.21 0.51 0.4 0.07 0.13 0.26 0.44 0.22 1.81 0.2 0.36 1.69 0.11 0.33 0.22 0.14 0.07 0.13 0 Africa Rest of Asia Latin America, North America Europe India China Caribbean and Oceania 65 Years and Above 35-64 15-34 0-14 Population in Billions Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
  17. 17. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interestand Lifestyle Personalization and Techno Savvy and Civic and Demanding and Individualization Connected 24 X 7 Environmentally Impatient – “Fast Friendly and the Furious” Gaming Gizmos Personalized Search and News Instant Text Messaging Eco- Transport Smart Phones Social Networking Profiles Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat Facebook-on-the Move Personalized Products Paperless Banking Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing) Microblogs
  18. 18. Mega Trend 4:Economic Trends
  19. 19. The Next Game Changers in 2025 Russia $6,189 Billion Turkey $1,167 Poland Billion $2,441 $38,526 Billion Billion China $2,827 $653 Billion Billion $6,235 Thailand Billion $772 Egypt $323 Brazil Billion Billion Vietnam Mexico India $483 $5,437 Billion BRIC Nations $4,816 Billion Billion Philippines Next Game Changers $811 Billion Indonesia $1,098 Billion ArgentinaNote : The figure denotes GDP at market South Africaprices. Forecasts to 2025 have beenextrapolated based on Nominal GDPgrowth rate projections .
  20. 20. The African Game Changers – Economic Diversification Country Comparison for Economic Diversity and Export Strength (Africa), 2010 4000 Angola Oil Producers (Primary Note: Bubble Size Denotes 3500 sector GDP Per Capita (Current contributes to US$) 3000 largest shareExport Strength: Per Capita Exports (US$) of GDP and Congo, Rep. exports) Tunisia 2500 Algeria Namibia 2000 Diversified South Africa 1500 Morocco 1000 Egypt Nigeria Highly dependant on Zambia Cote dIvoire 500 primary sector Sudan Guinea Ghana Kenya Senegal Sierra Leone Mozambique In Transition Ethiopia Rwanda Madagascar 0 Tanzania Congo, Dem. Rep. Uganda 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 -500 Economic Diversity: Manufacturing and Services Value Added (% of GDP)
  21. 21. Mega Trend 5:Connectivity & Convergence
  22. 22. 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020
  23. 23. SPACE JAM: New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to BeLaunched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications By 2020, there will be GNSS Enabled Applications: approximately 927 Satellites • Navigation (Civil, Military)(Communication – 405; EarthObservation – 151; Navigation • Broadband Internet and – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 Wireless Network and R&D 75) • GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system • Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site Galileo - intended to management provide more precisemeasurements than GPS or GLONASSChina developing Beidou Commercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile Automobile Navigation Satellite Services (MSS); voice and Intelligent Traffic and data applications, Control System bundling IPTV Applications
  24. 24. Africa will experience a 530% increase in international bandwidth through undersea fibre cables by 2020 Five new satellite companies using Ka band medium earth orbit Egypt (North Africa) satellites • Landings points for SEA-ME-WE 4 and EIG • SEACOM traffic is routed on SEA-ME-WE via Egypt 26,100 Gbps •Investments in IT hosting services and BPO willSatellite Bandwidth 12,800 Gbps leverage redundant bandwidth routes from 100Gbps multiple cables 2020 • Egypt will become a key international hub for 16,200 Gbps international data carriers 6,400 Gbps 2010 10Gbps Kenya (East Africa) • Investments in VoIP will benefit from cheaper 9,600 Gbps bandwidth Nigeria, Ghana and Senegal (West Africa) • IPTV will be a key investment opportunity for ISPs and TV 6,400 Gbps • East Africa will be home to 40% of Africa’s broadcasters in west Africa contact centres • A high population in Nigeria will present investment • Cheaper bandwidth and growing skill base to opportunity in community based social media boost ICT BPO services • Demand for better mobile voice and broadband quality will • Abundant bandwidth will present investment present investment opportunities for solution vendors opportunities for providers of rich media South Africa ` services such as IPTV in East Africa • ISPs will leverage elaborate support infrastructure and reliable electricity supply to invest in hosted services 19,700 Gbps • South Africa will be home to 60% of Africa’s ICT data centre and cloud computing platforms Undersea Fibre Bandwidth • ISPs and TV broadcasters will invest US$10 billion in IPTV 5,460 Gbps delivery systems 2020 • International data carriers will leverage South Africa’s position to invest in IP transit networks for Southern Africa countries 10,600 Gbps 2010 56,200Gbps US$ 4,000 million investment by 13 undersea cable providers will result in a 90% decline in the wholesale cost of international bandwidth
  25. 25. Virtual World 2020: 3D Simulated Environment for Interaction and Experience Impacting Personal MobilityVirtual Shopping Allowing Customers to Try Virtual Surgeries and Medical Training Virtual Business Conferences Products without leaving their homesVirtual Classes and Laboratories and Social Networking: 3D Avatars Daily 3D Field Trips Enabling People to Lead Multiple to Different Countries and Planets Lives
  26. 26. Mega Trend 6:Innovating to Zero
  27. 27. Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020 Zero Defects Carbon Neutral and Zero Cities Faults Zero Waste/ Emissions Carbon Neutral Factories and Zero Emails Retail Stores Zero Corporate Complete DebtsRecyclability fromHouseholds (Cradle Zeroto Cradle Concept) Breaches of Security Zero Emissions from Cars Zero Accidents Zero Crime Rates
  28. 28. Innovating to Zero Strategy Examples
  29. 29. Mega Trend 7:Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
  30. 30. The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being Mood Stress levels Mental health Sense of optimism Attitude Security Safety Sight / vision Personal values Touch & feelPersonal fulfilment Smell / breathing Self image / self Sound actualisation Temperature Wellness
  31. 31. Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing
  32. 32. Key Strategic Conclusions1. Mega Trends impact multiple industries. Examine them carefully to optimally develop medium and long term strategies in current and new markets2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the Mega Trend, possible convergence and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunities6. In Africa we need to particularly understand the opportunities arising locally as a consequence of global mega trends – e.g. local markets, international markets, as part of international supply chain
  33. 33. Three Phased Approach To Identify Emerging Opportunities: Robust Methodology to Evaluate Top Mega Trends Short list Top 10-15 Mega Trends Which Provide Most Opportunity/Impact to Company MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT MT• Short-list 10 most relevant Mega Trends to Company X and create a short profile of each MT  Mega Trends Presentation or• Prioritize the 5 most relevant MTs for Phase 1 Workshop is the First Company X and conduct a top level assessment of these MTs to Company X Step• Conduct a detailed assessment of these MTs to  Detailed Assessment Company X with a follow-up workshop or consulting assignment Phase 2 (Phase 2) and Tactical Business Plan (Phase 3) Can Take the Form• Develop tactical business plan and implementation of Consulting strategy Engagement or• Develop a monitoring, evaluation, and optimization Phase 3 Follow Up Workshops strategy Final output : Defined short list of the 4 or 5 most market MT MT MT attractive, easy to implement and high ROI Mega Trend MT MT opportunities
  34. 34. Contact UsPhil HowarthPartnerAfrica & Latin America (+27) 21 680 3269 phil.howarth@frost.comSarwant Singh Archana AmarnathPartner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Program Manager, Visionary Innovation ResearchResearch Group and Automotive & Transportation Group (+44) 2079157843 (+44) 2079157893 sarwant.singh@frost.com aamarnath@frost.com

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